So, the elimination of the drawn football match is now on the agenda apparently. Where did this media item come from? It is frequently a fruitful area of attention to determine both who is behind these anonymous spectacular society agendas and, indeed, who gains most from their potential implementation.
It is our belief that the introduction of a penalty shootout in every drawn match would have the prime product of benefiting the bookmakers and insider traders. Below, we explore some of the reasons behind our assertion that we are willing to make public.
* The new structure, if given the go-ahead, will create numerous new markets and extensions to current betting market structures. For example, markets specific to the penalty shootout would be enhanced and developed while HT/FT markets could be extended to HT/FT/Pen ones.
* The easiest player to corrupt is the goalkeeper. One mistake by a keeper has a greater magnitude than any other position on the pitch. Additionally, the psychological profiles of many goalies are conducive to betting sector approaches. Keepers are often outsiders - who would play in net if they were good enough to play outfield? Goalkeepers would become highly significant operators in the new penalty markets that the bookmakers will establish. Outfield players and referees would have less influence and the bookies would soon own many of the penalty shootouts.
* Bookmakers resist small fields and books if they can help it - unless they possess ultimate control of such markets. These new betting opportunities would be privately handicapped markets entirely opaque to all but the slickest analysts - a licence to print money for the market makers.
* It is our view that the new structure would lead to an increased number of drawn matches as teams both took advantage of the extra earner of penalties and relied on the fallback position of a superiority in shootouts. Bookmakers like draws as very few leisure punters ever take draw positions due to behavioural reasons.
* The penalty shootouts would develop a similar betting formation to the last race on a horserace card. Mug punters often try to "get out" of their day's financial damage by chasing their losses in the final event. The highly manipulated penalty shootout would be this event...
* The proposed adjustments would flatten the hierarchy in the Premiership which is something else dear to bookmaker's hearts (sic). The gap between rich and poor has stretched in the Premiership in recent years and the bookies are always on the lookout for new randomising factors to make outcomes more volatile. It can only be a matter of time before some bookmaker hits on the idea of tying weights to the best teams!
* A draw is an anathema to the increasing number of corporate American owners of Premiership teams. Many of these operators have developed trading strategies for American sports that include an assessment of overtime. There is a desire to transfer their strategies to their new playthings.
Our contacts at Sky reckon Murdoch is behind this media spin. Penalty shootouts would favour Sky on a range of different levels - increased advertising for lengthened matches with guaranteed climaxes; more betting turnover for SkyBet; much greater degree of control of outcome of matches both in 90 minutes and on penalties; enhancement of income from television rights etc etc.
English football could have chosen are more palatable character to sell our beautiful game to - like virtually anyone else on the planet...
Just leave the game alone. It works.
** Originally posted for Dietrological Platinum and Gold clients on March 15th and 16th respectively.
