As we have stated previously, an agenda exists to achieve a showcase FA Cup Final for the new Wembley but Robbie Savage destroyed any value in betting on a Chelsea/Manchester United FA Cup Final when he went public and said what everyone else was thinking.
Despite this, there may still be validity in taking a position as the market is effectively corrupted.
Market makers, for psychological and business reasons, always tend to set prices in close proximity to one another. This occurs even when some of these layers are certain that the market prices are inefficient and, consequently, incorrect. In these instances, the layers take advantage of their superior analysis/information to undertake proprietary trading against the inefficient price offered by their competitors.
Some markets are effectively impossible to price up realistically. Taking the FA Cup Final as a prime example. Assessing the non-manipulated market and taking into account the overbet nature of the big teams, the true odds for a Chelsea v Man Utd final should be between 5/2 and 3/1. All bookmaker's markets instead offer between 5/4 and 6/4 on this occurrence. This is a outrageous piece of price scalping. Some astute layers have decided that even this price represents value and are refusing to price up the market at all!
In a totally corrupt market, we are not dealing with a probability of a particular outcome but the CERTAINTY of a particular outcome instead. Consequently, if an individual has complete and total confidence in a Chelsea versus Manchester United Final, 6/4 represents considerable value on a market that effectively should be very short odds-on.
Throughout the short history of this blog, we have been sharing our insights on this year's FA Cup as the competition is of minimal interest to our South East Asian colleagues and we trade only on a peripheral level ourselves. The competition has allowed us to display instances without impinging on our proprietary isolationist stuff.
Without giving any details of our analysis, we develop a rating for each team that is left in the competition at the quarter final stage. Collating all valid information from the markets, the matches, the officiating, the draws etc, we can determine which teams have a hidden impetus in this most marketed and manipulated of tournaments. Below are our ratings for the last six teams in this year's tournament (100 = maximum rating and 0 = minimum).
Chelsea 100
Manchester United 82
Middlesbrough 81
Watford 55
Tottenham 54
Blackburn 38
Once again, without providing details of our conversion chart, we would be pricing the showpiece final at around Evens (offering an average return on investment of about 25%). This degree of edge is tradeable. Yet, this assessment only takes account of the corruption of the competition to date and does not take any account of manipulations yet to be foisted upon us (we don't do crystal balls).
Consequently, our advice would be to take the 6/4 prior to this evening's matches. This price is adequate in an honest market and excessive value in a corrupt one.
It must be this sort of thing that makes the FA Cup such an allegedly popular competition worldwide.
PS Post Match Update - Dean ensured United's progress and, over the two games, 'Boro were repeatedly robbed while a late change of referee (Atkinson for Webb) significantly enhanced Chelsea's hopes of success - the late penalty being irrelevant due to the west Londoner's significant fitness advantage. The job's a good'un...
