Sunday 4 March 2007

How Has Ferguson Got Away With This One?

I wanted to be on United for the Liverpool game but the choice of Atkinson to officiate was a concern as the sending off of Scholes and the failure to give the Mancs a certain penalty proved. O'Shea's winner was still one of those timeless moments though...
With Foy in charge and Wenger on the warpath, Arsenal were always going to get a decision at some point of Saturday's game against Reading and Gilberto's penalty conversion for the foul on Clichy fitted the bill nicely. A good earner...
The rumour around the markets is that Portsmouth messed up a gamble in the Chelsea game although, inevitably, we're hearing several different market myths. There was certainly some interesting late disinformational money around and it was Redknapp's 60th.
Markets for all Portsmouth matches have to be analysed as entirely separate one-off events - there have been some events this season where there has been conflicting motivations within the club, for example. Sometimes, there simply isn't an analytical solution although our collective trading intuitions usually solve the market. Trading Portsmouth football matches is identical on an analytical level to my historical work addressing those 7 runner flat races where the family of Barry Hills "controlled" three of the horses.
Elsewhere, there is already an end of season feel to some of the games as the north east derby and Fulham versus Villa's agreed draws showed; Watford's lack of physical fitness was again their undoing; Man City's fans were dire although Howard Webb avoided sending off any Black players (he did deny Folan a penalty, however); Riley robbed Sheffield United this week and he is fast becoming a major liability in the market place.
You have to be quite selective to ensure choosing a competitive match in the English Premiership nowadays. If you don't know what's going on, your chances are roughly 50/50...