Six weeks is the duration of this year's Cricket World Cup in the Caribbean. I'm already bored after two days. Only a combination of my trading portfolio and the knowledge that the West Indies will be allowed a few weeks of party time are keeping me entertained.
To professional traders, all major sporting competitions are prime profit opportunities. Despite individual tournaments having their own specific structure, there are common analytical similarities present in all such competitions.
There are two prime types of manipulation in these trading windows - institutional and gambling.
The former is typical of all tournaments and part of any trader's initial analysis of a competition must be to determine what the hierarchy require from their event. Success in these competitions is partially meritocratic but only if such an outcome accommodates the template that the organisers desire. The most obvious example of this form of creativity is the necessity for the host nation(s) to enjoy a suitable level of progression and achievement. There are numerous other aspects to a organiser's hidden agenda but we'll not approach these matters here.
Gambling turnover is always significant on these major global one-off competitions. Global television coverage and global betting markets operate in tandem to develop markets with deep liquidity. Such markets are perfect for corruption. Aside from market makers and professional traders, there are two other conspicuous participants in the global betting markets for the Cricket World Cup.
Insider trading by both privileged insiders and players is a key feature of all betting markets but reaches new heights when there is increased depth to the markets. Think about it. If an individual makes the choice to take the corrupt dollar then one should expect that this same individual might just wish to optimise his returns from his corruption.
Simple... Fiddle the liquid events for greater financial returns with less risk.
Cricket offers a good example of two of the types of manipulative processes at work.
Firstly, take a corrupt batsman. It's a first round World Cup game against irrelevant opposition. All the key games are ahead. Short-selling himself on all available markets, he retains total control of outcome and, indeed, makes greater profit the sooner he gets the job done. There are numerous such players that our Trading Team are closely monitoring from the moment they appear on the pavilion steps. Additionally, some teams have groupings of individuals that work together to achieve specific market aims and it is not unknown for particularly tightly knit XI's to operate as a complete betting market entity.
Secondly, lets look at any given former England captain on the Sky team of reporters. Aside from the general "from the horses mouth" type of privileged information that these betting icons receive, they are also able to utilise Sky technology to gain further edge. In one of the games in the recent Ashes series, the Aussies were about 2673 for five wickets. The markets were set considerably above this level and, yet, there was the issue of a declaration. Sky cameras were trained on the Australian dressing room waiting for the first muscle twitch that might indicate that the pads were coming off the Australian No 8 batsman. Having utilised this inside information to whatever effect he desired, a breathless Ian Botham shared his little coup with the world exhibiting the arrogance of the untouchable. The only upside is that Ponting probably got on first and at a much better price.
I could but won't provide a whole spectrum of similar issues with regard to manipulation of the markets in the Cricket World Cup. I need to make my living, after all.
But, I will add that the types of manipulation available in cricket is unusual in it's variety of potential corruptions. The liquid global cricket markets can be a choppy environment to trade if you are out of your depth. Some of these markets are multiple and non-correlatory in their forms of corruption.
Personally, I restrict myself to the markets where I possess an edge. I will trade on individuals batting runs markets if I have inside info or if I am able to read the player quickly enough but there are more profitable fields to harvest. Incidentally, the issues relating to individual batsmen may also be applied to a whole range of other individual sports - darts, snooker, horseracing, pool, baseball, boxing, cycling, golf, formula one etc etc.
The taint of corruption exists across every major event in every major sport nowadays. The bookmakers have a colossal amount to answer for...
PS This post was written prior to the memorable tied match between Zimbabwe 2nd XI and Ireland. However, this event was an anomaly.
