Tuesday 4 November 2008

Will It Need Extra Time And The Supreme Court? #

Illusory Climaxes...

The desire, nay, demand for the Climax is a defining feature of all aspects of the hyperreal world.
Of course, the fact that the fallacious Climax occurs, generally, after a historical fake reality, only reinforces the illusory nature of the complete hyperreality.

Some spectacles are not worth following through to the fake conclusion as the entire event is false to its very foundation - take the Stanford 20-20-20 cricketing farce in Antigua on Saturday night, for example.

Other spectacularised neorealities are not worthy of our time because the eventual solution is known, although the media would have you believe otherwise. There are many examples of this type of market and reality manipulation - the Manchester United and Chelsea title race of last season going to the wire in order to boost tv, advertising, club and betting revenues; the exact same template being used in this year's Formula 1 title race; the critical importance of ensuring that Manchester United and Chelsea fought out the first FA Cup Final at the New Food Mall.
The only spectacles that warrant more than a cursory glance are those that might disclose the hidden agendas of the future short-termist strategies of the architects of our global hyperrealities.

In this section would fall the most corrupt and liquid betting market on the planet - the English Premiership - and the election of the government linked to the most corrupt economic and financial system on Earth - the US election.

It should come as no surprise that, in such events where both the reality is fixed, and the markets are pricing that reality, the linkage and, indeed, power of the markets over the eventual outcome is paramount.
Little reported during this crazily long election campaign was the role played by Intrade and their ilk in the election result.

Quoting John Delaney, chief executive of Intrade, regarding the alleged market manipulation:
"There has recently been vigorous discussion of unusual trading activity on our political prediction markets. What could be motivating the activity has been subject to widespread speculation by academics, journalists, our own users and others. Some external commentators have claimed the unusual trading patterns indicate that our markets are being intentionally manipulated for political purposes. Others have gone further yet."

Now in a democracy, markets should have no influence over realities where integrity has to be a core constituent.
If markets influence a football result, what is the point of the spectacle?
If markets influence an election result. what is the point of democracy?

Many factors influence elections, from the rather obvious media control to the less obvious complete absence of a bottom-up democratic template that might truly give people some Real say over how their lives are run, in the first place.
But when speculators are gaming the election markets and, potentially, the next leader of the free world (sic), we find ourselves in exactly the same territory that the bankers put us in with their whizzy derivative nonsenses.
People playing poker with our lives...

And, when these people get it wrong, misjudge the bluff, fail to assess the real percentages and probabilities, the cascading climate of Depression comes calling not at the yachts of the hedge fund managers but in the South, the inner cities, the squatter towns, the refugee camps, and all other disenfranchised groupings of humanity who have no role to play in this blinkered consumerist nightmare.

The only valid sort of market is a swap, a barter, between two or a very small number of people, where the individuals are honest about the exchange about to take place, there is no disguise of a major unknown market influence (eg the referee is with Newcastle or the melons are rotten at the core), there is easy access to community address if invalid trading practices are uncovered, there are no systemic or other institutional hidden agendas and the mode of exchange is transparent.

Exactly the polar opposite of the financial market template that exists across our heavily gamed planet.
Everything is a bet.
It matters more when there's money on it...
...No it doesn't, it matters more when it is Real.

Now the loss of the world's primary sport to a bunch of charlatans who would gladly feed their grandmother to the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal, if it would enhance their returns on their Draw No Bet position, is, in the big scheme of things, only a disaster.
The equivalent gaming of the entire economic system by an equivalent bunch of psychopaths is rather more catastrophic.
When a bunch of people who really should know better undertook to criminalise and fix last week's Premiership match between Fulham and Wigan Athletic, the only losers were the fans, the bettors who were unaware of the scam, the insiders not involved and the integrity of the sport.
These people are of no concern to the crooks who orchestrated this crime.

When Hank Paulson elected to game the recession for the proprietary advantage of his 'former' company Goldman Sachs, the losers were thrown out of homes and jobs, gangland activity picks up in the ghettoised areas of the world, people starve...
Real Pain for Real People.

So, the US Election is influenced by the betting activities of systemic insiders.
If this were the only issue with this demonstration of fake democracy, then we could deal with that.
But it is not...

All this stuff and nonsense about 'change' and 'hope' is crass marketing trash.
Obama is backed financially by the main players in the systemic corruption that has produced this global Depression. The leading 'ex' investment banks, retail banks, private equity firms and hedge funds are all bank-rolling his crowning.
They would not be doing this if it were felt that the man wasn't going to do a suitable 'job'.
Obama's economic advisers all come from the same Chicago school of free-marketry that also was behind the Bush team, shareholder capitalism in general and, under the idiotic rantings of Milton Friedman, the global Depression.
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It is even more depressing that the man is Black, although, as we have argued previously, he should only really be thought of as 'Black', like Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Garth Crooks...
There is no change on offer, just more of the same market zealotry.
Just as mainstream football no longer offers us a competitive sport, or, if it is competitive, it is so because ####################################################
####################################################, in politics, there is no longer any difference between Left and right in the houses of power.
Jack Straw - Tory or Labour or, for that matter, British National Party?
Bill Clinton - Democrat? Republican? Narcissist? Psychopath?

Betfair have it correct on their increasingly clunky betting platform - they list their 'Political' markets under 'Sports'!

As this is our one freebie post to all and sundry this month, we perhaps should point you in the direction of the best bets of the day.
Fact - Whatever the lead of Obama in Opinion Polls, Exit Polls, Prediction Markets etc, the final margin of victory will be less. Computerised voting with proprietary software owned by a company that makes donations to the Republican party doesn't sound too much like democracy to me; limited staff will mean long queues to vote, which is alright if you spend your days having beauty treatments/playing golf, but is more problematic if you are fighting tooth and nail to keep your job so that you and your family don't join the nearly four million households turfed out by the bankers; Rampant gerrymandering is also a tilt to the Republicans; Racism will have a huge effect both consciously and subconsciously - as we rather childishly put forward earlier this year: "Amiri Baraka Or Barack Obama Or Iraq Osama?"

America is a racist society no matter how many times white people pat themselves on their backs to celebrate their newly discovered multicultural expansiveness - "We know somebody Black now, Stephanie. My personal trainer is a former Rastafarian."

White people aren't racist until they start to think of quotas and positive discrimination and affirmative action, and then they morph into sub-caricatures of Kevin Pietersen, who captained England in the heavily rigged England cricket match with $20 million prize money mentioned above, and who left his native South Africa due to his opposition to Quotas in the South African cricket team.
Aha...
Up went the cry.
No to Quotas. Yes to Corruption.

Additionally, it would seem to us that there is another Quota system at play allowing South Africans to play cricket for England - Pietersen following on from numerous others like Lamb, Smith, D'Oliveira with the racism of 40 years ago...

In the poorer areas of the US, where the job losses are highest, in the redneck middle bit of the country, and with the closet racists of the cities, Obama's lead will be cut.
But, despite all this, the man will win, and that has to be the bet of the day - Obama to win but by less than expected, hardly rocket science, I know, but sometimes the easiest money is the most obvious.
There is minimal value in this position at around 1.07, however.

In an indication of the craziness of markets, Betfair still allow you to trade on the next President being 'female', by this, we assume that they mean a woman...
Due to limited liquidity, this market is not tempting in any way, but lets use this market as an example of how betting markets may influence hyperrealities.

Say, that the liquidity was in the hundreds of millions of pounds...
Say, that the US is more racist than it is generally thought and that the two candidates are neck and neck with McCain even in a slight lead.

Sympathy votes are huge in our shallow societies.
Obama's ratings surged after the death of his grandmother - the proof being that he must be a remarkable man if he is willing to take time out from his presidential campaign to pop in on his dying grannie.
Remarkable...
Over a meal, my father bored me with tales of X Factor (a disgraceful travesty of the art of music) where, apparently, some talentless scroat is progressing through towards near-glory simply based on the fact that his girlfriend has died, leaving him looking after their child.
Well worth a record deal.
Cowell can flog that one to death, literally, for six months before discarding the said scroat back to inner city oblivion.

So, back to the rather extreme plot.
By 3 hours to closing, it is clear that McCain is going to narrowly win.
It is at this point that he must be oven-chipped.
Massive 'death of Diana' type of stuff, based on warmongery and being imprisoned for warmongery, and, lo and behold, you've just landed you and your consortium several billion pounds by backing the Next President Being Female at 160/1.

Plainly a ridiculous scenario, but so was Fulham versus Wigan Athletic and Hank Paulson/Goldman Sachs versus The World until recently.

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