Say No To Bloody Bad Work Men Blaming Their Tools
So VAR robbed Scotland.
We might suggest failing to land a single shot on target in two of the three games and having one of the lowest pass completion percentages and the marked fall off in form in the second half of the qualification campaign.
To fail to have a shot on target in the 'deciding' event is Clarke's Crime.
We considered sharing this little aphorism with you yesterday - so here it is now: In matches like Sco v Hun when a draw is no good to either side then it makes game theory sense for the two teams to agree to a coin toss to decide the winner if the game moves into injury time.
Then a goal may be suitably scored / conceded and one nation gains and a bond for future manipulations is born.
Albania v Spain & Croatia v Italy
So.
How do you price Albania's biggest game in their history and Spain Reserves?
How do you price it?
How do you build in the motivational discrepancy?
It's a big advantage being able to allow the 1st XI a night of largely leisure.
There's a lot of guesswork in a volatile battlefield here and, unless you have access to key information (which we don't), it is a gamble getting involved.
The insider trading currently points towards Spain (at KO - 45).
We expect Italy to qualify but firstly they only need a draw and secondly we read Croatia very poorly.
The insider trading, such as it is is mixed and lacks robustness (at KO - 45).
