Excellently, the conclusion to the European World Cup 2010 Qualifiers are a mathematical diversion of some consequence.
And all because of one little FIFA rule - that only eight of the nine second placed nations will move forward for the Play-Off head-to-heads in November.
So all your column inches of projection and requirement are mindless chatter as a thoroughly systems thinking approach with a dose of specified game theory is the only way to strategically analyse or plan ahead.
Many matches that would have been dead rubbers are now given a motivational boost, and theorising about outcomes in concurrent matches will be a necessary part of the game plan.
Good for the bookmakers and the pseudo-excitement of qualification, but this is merely a ticket to a potentially hazardous Play Off prior to an inevitable early elimination next summer.
And, because the Qualifying Groups are not balanced, certain nations have carried a millstone throughout the qualification process.
The causes of this nonsense are the quality of the lower tiered nations and 'the remainder' - those lesser nations that are unable to be equally divided between the available Groups.
So, Group 9 featuring the self-harming Scots, has one less team than the other sections. To balance matters out, the results of the weakest teams in the other eight Groups are removed from the hyperreality.
Like, they never happened...
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Surely it would be far more sensible to put these 10 countries together (Malta, Luxembourg, Moldova, San Marino, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Andorra, Faroe Islands) with all those territories and 'nations' that wish to be a part of the FIFA Family but are not allowed due to geopolitical tilts eg Gozo, Catalunya, Padania, Occitania, Tibet, Greenland, Yorkshire etc.
All of these entities would then enjoy competitive matches against teams of similar quality, with the chance of victory meaning something other than avoiding a 0-13 defeat.
The distribution of these lower level countries in the Group stages in Europe has established imbalances. Groups with 2 of these poorer players are at a marked advantage when the points totals are determined to see who reaches the Play Offs.
The fifth placed team in Group Two is Luxembourg, while the fifth team in Group Three is the Czech Republic. Or how about the option of either Azerbaijan or Liechtenstein, or Romania if we compare Groups 4 and 7?
Not even Sepp Blatter can bend Reality so far as to suggest that it is as easy to take six points off Romania or the Czech Republic as it is off Luxembourg.
With these factors in mind, we decided, just for the sheer 'what if?' of it to run the remaining Qualifying matches through the computer to see how matters might lie at the conclusion of the Groups.
We ignored all externalities and systemic impacts, and we have avoided including any potential for arranged mutually beneficial outcomes and any other form of frigging rigging.
The purpose is merely to detect which of the second placed sides are most at risk of finishing in the hallowed runners up spot only to be told that Johannesburg is not for the likes of them.
Groups 1, 3, 8 and 9 are the key ones.
Irish and British readers will note that these Groups include Scotland and both halves of the 32 counties.
The target number of points to be gained against the top 4 other teams in your section is 13. If a nation reaches this level, it is unlucky for someone else.
Repeatedly running the scenarios through the software suggests that it will, however, be Group # that is the one, meaning that whoever out of ##########################
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More importantly, but also on the subject of the integrity of the game, it is to be hoped that FIFA ensure that the final round of relevant Qualifying matches kick off at the same time.
Having established a template with skewed incentives and a marked tilt, surely the world governing body will not be so crass as to allow differential kick off times to allow the incremental securing of the most marketable 8 Qualifiers.
Surely they wouldn't do this to us.
Still, loads of trading returns if they do...
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