David Pleat always manages to rise to the occasion, as the above warning to any Spaniards risking a premature exaltation clearly demonstrates.
He surpassed himself during the Semi Final between Spain and Russia.
My personal favourite was when he questioned himself on the (in)validity of his own description of Sergio Ramos as either a "cultivated bull" or a "cultured bull".
Of course, the Big News from Vienna was the eclipsing of Andrei Arshavin by Cesc Fàbregas.
It is interesting to assess the holistics of Arshavin in Euro 2008.
It is also interesting to assess what such factors should mean with regard to the man's potential transfer from Zenit Leningrad to Barcelona.
We are on the verge of launching a new project.
Our initial aim was to market the entity prior to Euro 2008.
Then we thought about it.
And we changed our minds.
We chose to reconstitute the project in an innovative way to create an entirely unique business entity.
Then, we chose to utilise Euro 2008 as part of the marketing process.
Then, we decided that an agent would be necessary to sell the entity to clients on our behalf.
Then, we decided to restructure the whole business.
The working name for the new business is "Trade Markets Data". We've registered it but it will probably end up being called something else.
The business will combine three separate business services into one holistic whole.
* Trade - We have built a model to price players more efficiently and accurately in the transfer markets. Currently, these transfer markets are highly inefficient (see notes below regarding Arshavin) and equally highly subjective.
There have been no serious attempts to develop a quantitative approach to determining the real value of a player. Such efforts that have been attempted are pitiful in their degree of myopia regarding the hyperrealities that underpin the football industry.
Our assessments and evaluations encompass up to 100 variables on a fundamental level, dependent on the territory. Additionally, we take into account the impacts of the betting markets, rogue operators and other 'invisible' factors eg the use of Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs) on the assessment of a player value. Institutional biases are also built into the model as is the impact of the various regulatory regimes in the different territories.
Initially, we are covering 28 leagues in 16 countries.
Increasing the efficiency of the transfer markets...
* Markets - In many of the more mature football leagues - Serie A, the English Premiership, Primera Liga and Bundesliga - the massively liquid underground betting markets influence events on the pitch.
Disenfranchised teams need to protect themselves.
When agents of the market makers are directing events on the pitch, it is critical for clubs to defend themselves proactively and reactively in the marketplace and in the controlling of the flow of information and news on an internal level.
Both pre-match and in-play, an evaluation of the market impacts is necessary to maximise the probabilities of a favourable outcome.
Gaming the betting markets from the inside to achieve an optimised hyperreality...
* Data - Our databases are legendary. We have 15 years of fundamental data relating to football matches across the planet.
PESs, institutional biases, corrupt match officials, referee biases, power analyses, fitness databases, rogue players, psychological profiling of key individuals etc etc etc.
Data may be utilised together with Trade and Markets for real-time input to analyses and evaluations or it may be used singularly to address future opponents or match windows.
Recording and archiving the corruption in proprietary databases...
In combination with Trade and Markets, Data completes the triumvirate of services that we will be offering.
These are a unique combination of services working together to provide the complete package for the discerning club.
We intend utilising the impact of Euro 2008 on the transfer markets as part of our promotional campaign for our new business.
Every alternate year, the Summer Transfer Market may be divided into three distinct windows, as the impact of the flagship FIFA and UEFA tournaments defines the structure.
The more strategic managers, like Wenger and Hodgson, prefer to undertake their buying early in these years, particularly if the players are involved in the summer tournament.
The tournament itself represents the second window, and this is the most volatile period. The degree of focus on each and every game ensures that a target players value can vary by the minute (once again, see the Arshavin notes below). Without any control over the volatility, a manager should be gaming the timing of any transfer activity in this second window for the optimum price.
The third window is, rather obviously, post-tournament and some very inflated fees are paid for players who have "caught the eye" in the preceding extravaganza. On occasions, a transfer fee might be markedly inflated by the performances in just three matches - a whole career fades into insignificance and all evaluation is based on one three week window, as clubs and agents pursue the most gifted performers, not in totality, but in the micro-window of the spectacular that brings all of these interested parties together - a season in microcosm.
"Trade Markets Data" will price all transfers over the next month using our proprietary model and compare with the "real" market price. The differentials will be explained to our target clubs as a part of our marketing process.
Over the next season, "Trade Markets Data" intends to establish a nascent dynamic evaluation database of all players in some of the more major territories.
This database would be updated real-time as careers developed, and new information and analyses come to light.
In effect, these databases would act as the equivalent of rating agencies with regard to financial markets - player evaluations would represent all publicly available information at any given time in combination with our proprietary databases, analyses and information.
Which brings us, finally, to the issue of the evaluation of Andrei Arshavin. Are Barcelona getting a good deal for the 26 year old creative midfielder?
£20 million ($40 million) is the rumoured transfer fee.
Arshavin had a great season with Zenit, inspiring his team to the Russian Premier League title, the UEFA Cup, helping Russia to qualify for Euro 2008 at England's expense and then performing wickedly in his first two games in the tournament proper.
Zenit are massively backed by Gazprom.
Gazprom have a libertarian approach to realities.
Zenit, under Advocaat, and Russia, under fellow Dutchman, Hiddink, have left no stone unturned in their efforts at achieving the sporting impossible.
Zenit, and the Russians in general, had a major advantage of a two month break in the winter prior to the latter stages of the UEFA Cup. Despite this, by the time the Euro 2008 competition came around, Arshavin had been playing serious competitive football for 13 of the previous 15 months. And, even the winter break involved extensive training in preparation for Villarreal, Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich and Glasgow Rangers.
Yet Arshavin and the Russian team looked as if they were merely starting their season. Additionally, a certain oligarch was involved in trying to achieve suitable outcomes on some events in the tournament. He was even successful on one occasion. And UEFA had an agenda against the Russians on two matches. And how should one level the playing field of seasonal tiredness that effects the tournament?
How should Barcelona judge Arshavin's transfer fee in the light of this information and inference? The Russians were chemically enhanced and one of their matches was bought; Zenit were incredibly fit throughout their UEFA Cup run. Their defeat of three G14(18) teams, two of which had also benefited from a winter break, were typified by the recurrent theme of the Zenit team getting stronger as the match progressed.
Should Barcelona reckon on getting the Andrei who destroyed the Netherlands with haste, skill and speed? Or the Andrei who was leaden-footed and outplayed and out-thought by Fàbregas in the Semi Final?
Of course, glamour clubs tend to buy what they need to buy in order to attach galacticos glamour to their brand - this is a serial trait in Spain, and one which seems to oscillate between the two prime soccer locations. But buying an overpriced, overrated iconic figure is only valid on a promotional and merchandising level.
In our estimation, there is no value in buying Arshavin at £20 million.
Successful economic management at the club level involves the standard traders template of "Buy at the Bottom/Sell at the Top".
Compare the transfer policies of Barcelona with Arsenal.
Wenger sells Petit, Anelka, Overmars, Vieira, Henry, all timed to perfection.
Barcelona purchase some of these individuals, and at inflated prices with a in-built and steeply gradiented depreciation.
Arshavin would represent a significant risk of being a similar purchase.
Of course, the inefficient evaluation of footballers doesn't only happen around these Summer Spectaculars. We have created a rather different template of analysis for the domestic seasons and, although many of the same parameters and configurative techniques apply, the domination of the shadow of the bookmakers is, by far, the most overwhelming presence.
Any transfer evaluation that does not take into account the holistic picture will be unworthy of serious comment.
Any team that fails to defend themselves against the ravages of the betting marketplace will be punished for their blinkered sight.
Any manager who avoids undertaking a fundamental analysis of the hidden agendas of all opponents will be handicapping himself prior to the event.
"Trade Markets Data" - think about it.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
