Saturday 10 February 2007

Don't Bet on the Premiership Handicap Hurdle

Saturday's Premiership programme is very trappy indeed. Last week we advised leisure punters to avoid handing their money over to the bookmakers during the Chinese New Year period (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/take-month-off-improve-your-bank.html).
The proximity of the UEFA Cup games, the onset of the Champions League 2nd Phase window, Chinese New Year, the impact of being post-international break and a roster of games with associated officials that ensures a manipulated European-controlled marketplace are all major volatility and/or disinformational issues today.
There is a very liquid global market on Wiley's West Ham v Watford game. Curbishley has finally worked out that Green is a better keeper than Carroll but we will monitor this one. The global Premiership steamer of the day is Liverpool - but we're not convinced.
All eight games look tradeable until you get out the magnifying glass. We have a couple of Premiership positions in Asia but they are based on inside information and, unless you are in possession of similar levels of edge, forget it or you'll regret it.
You may as well blindly stick a pin in the horseracing card at Newbury. Although with Saturday meetings at Ayr and Warwick abandoned, horseracing markets will be equally manipulated today.

PS - Post Match Update - The wet pitch, Reina's error and Solano's penalty showed us to be correct in our opposition to the global gamble on Liverpool.