Thursday 1 February 2007

Betting Patterns 3 Aston Villa 1

The midweek Premiership games were unremarkable until one focuses on the underlying betting markets. So here is the round-up from our Trading Team.
Pompey and Boro was typical of a Serie A agreed draw - Portsmouth simply did not attempt to score and Yakubu played his part in neutralising the Middlesbrough attack. Our main trader actually fell asleep at one point in the second half.
Chris Kirkland gave a Grobbelaaresque performance in Wigan's defeat at Reading. Okay, so we had a losing trading position on this event so we have an angle on the match but, despite this, the man simply hasn't mastered the control of body language that is necessary. The betting market was quite complex on this event but several Asian layers were heavily hit by Reading's victory. In future, there will be certain Wigan games that we will avoid and, if Paul Jewell wishes to remain in the Premiership, he should change his keeper. There is a dynamic to get the Lancastrians out of the Premiership anyway due to their lack of glamour and because there are simply too many teams from the north west in the league. Wigan and Watford are, by some distance, the least favoured teams at the hands of our match officials.
There was a global gamble on Villa at Newcastle which we couldn't appreciate as Howard Webb was blowing the whistle. The disallowed Carew goal was one of the most atrocious pieces of officiating this season. The best referees from a Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) perspective are the ones who are able to act with a degree of subtlety. Mr Webb like Mr Poll doesn't always achieve this.
We have stated in the past that we always take a keen interest in any new officials that are added to the Premiership roster. Step forward Lee Probert from the footballing hotspot of Gloucestershire. We sent a junior trader to watch his first match in charge (Sheff Utd v Portsmouth) and I had to spend last night in the windswept badlands of the Reebok watching a disastrous performance by Mr Probert. Once again, there was a major global bet on Wanderers but we wouldn't get involved due to Probert. The Nolan penalty decision left me speechless; the later penalty decision only left me muttering incoherently. Nolan's post match interview was revealing - "we didn't get these penalties but hopefully we will get it back in the next few games" - in that it encapsulates the gut feeling of professional players in a season where manipulation of outcome by match officials has reached very worrying levels.
Finally, egotistical Mr Poll officiated on Chelsea for the first time since his alleged verbal threats to "teach them a listen" in November's televised match at Tottenham. Unfortunately, we are not privy to any pre-match "threats" on this occasion. We made big money on this game by undertaking contrary trading to the gamble on Blackburn which was simply stupid money. Incidentally, it was Poll's performance in that Tottenham game that persuaded us to start this blog.
The people who are involved in the corruption of English football matches need to learn one important lesson. Don't underestimate your audience. As we have stated before, in footballing centres like Liverpool, Glasgow and Manchester, the discussion among fans isn't about whether the game is corrupt but about how it is corrupt and who is doing the corrupting.