Sunday, 18 March 2012

What An Incredible Fluke XII!

The Referee Bias Index (100 = Total Bias in Favour of Team; 0 = Total Bias Against) is revealing with regard to football clubs that are systemically targeted over seasons within their leagues.

Take Arsenal.

In the last 7 seasons in the Premier League, Arsenal have not once achieved the average total of 50.
Arsenal's average index for this window is 38.

In the same period Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City have fallen below the 50 threshold on just four occasions...
... in total!
Between them!!

Out of 35 occurrences for the Big Five, 31 resulted in a positive bias.
Out of 7 seasons for Arsenal, not one did.

Chelsea average 61.
And Liverpool 64 which makes it even more remarkable that they struggle even to qualify for the Champions League.

This level of bifurcation is significant.
It is not possible to win titles carrying the Arsenal handicapping weight - in our databases, there are no instances in any major European league over the last decade and a half where the title has been won with a Referee Index below 40.

What a weird fluke!

NB Referee Index calculated as follows: Key Penalty or Sending Off +/-1 (only valid if relevant, ie a Penalty awarded in 90th min at 0-4 down is irrelevant); Ghost Goal +/-1; Foul/Booking Average >10 +0.5; Foul/Booking Average