Saturday, 2 August 2008

Premier League Rnd 1 - Where's The Clever Money Going? #

"Top class" growls Andy Gray in conclusion to the outrageously hyperreal Sky pre-season advertisement to promote their football output for next season.
Not content with the fake of Page 3 girls (sic) playing fakely on fake instruments to a fake backdrop of football matches totally tarnished by the gambling industry, Gray suitably defines Sky's product across their various media.
Top Class.
Total Fake.

To optimise returns to shareholders, the gambling sector requires three fundamentals to be suitably dovetailed - the sport, the media and the corruption.

Profits and turnover are significantly limited when a sport is only linked to either one of these other factors.
That is to say.
Sport + Media (but without Corruption) = Less Profit.
Sport + Corruption (but without Media) = Less Turnover.

With regard to the football industry, in the good old days, these three fundamental requirements were resident in a variety of business locations, enforcing a competitive, if still corrupt, template upon the sector.
The inefficiencies resulting from such a competitive market were the driving force behind the development of Sky Television.

Murdoch's business model was/is simple.
And psychopathic.
Firstly, arrange a leveraged power relationship with the sport. Make football dependent on the Sky financial input. Use skewed customer-relationship paradigms to railroad clients to ever greater involvement in the brand.
Secondly, adapt the sport to the Sky media hidden agenda. Alter kick off times and control the fixture list. Work with the sport to develop suitably branded mega- and hyperrealities to maximise financial returns.
Thirdly, ############################################################################

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Murdoch does Muscle. ########################################################################################################################################################################################
Other entities use Mind.
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Predatory trading, price collusion, insider trading, establishing crowded exits, price fixing, creative cornering, any number of trading strategies might be utilised in a fragmented cartel to create competition with regard to the eventual control of the match outcome. Different entities and power groupings have different potential strategies open to them in this secondary level of corruption.
Whereas the likes of Sky ####################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################
This is a simple cornered market that demonstrates one simple way in which the corrupt template of a fragmented cartel can impact upon the integrity of the sport.
There are many many other templates!

We might touch on a few of them in the remainder of this post as we address the early activity in the global betting markets for the 1st Round of Matches (1RM) in the English Premiership and a few other assorted pieces of financial chicanery of the sort that underpins every aspect of our lives in this disgrace of an economic system.

When the shady operation known as Football DataCo Limited released the 'randomised' fixture list for season 2008/09, there was minimal market interest in Europe. Eventually, the various players started to price up the matches but in a very staggered manner. Ladbrokes, the self-styled Magic Sign, only priced up the matches yesterday, over a month after the fixtures were announced.
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In Asia, #######################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################

In general, Premiership betting markets are, at most, a 7 day window. Indeed, when there are midweek games in the league, the markets can be as short as 3 days in the period of activity. The 1RM offers a two month market in contrast.
This template allows a very different market strategy to be developed by the market participants.
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One of the key reasons for the delay in Ladbrokes offering prices was The Big Unknown.
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So, lets check out where the money has been going so far.
This market neoreality has a far greater impact on the eventual match outcome than any of the fallacious transfer twaddle that is allegedly so enthralling.
Interestingly, the turnover in Europe is negligible. For example, an average Sky live Sunday match might yield pre-match betting turnover of £2.5 million ($5 million) on Betfair; the current liquidity of the Man Utd/ Newcastle event at the betting exchange is just £2,500.

* ARSENAL v WEST BROMWICH ALBION - The early money in Asia has been against Arsenal on the Asian Handicaps ie against Arsenal winning by 2 or more goals. This dynamic has been consistent since market opening.
* ASTON VILLA v MANCHESTER CITY - Little Far East activity as the layers await the ################################
* BOLTON WANDERERS v STOKE CITY - There has been some small support for the hosts at -0.5 on the Handicaps.
* CHELSEA v PORTSMOUTH - ###########################. Instantaneous money selling Chelsea on the Handicap markets produced ###########################. Some clever money has nibbled at Chelsea in the last 48 hours.
* EVERTON v BLACKBURN ROVERS - Major gamble on Blackburn globally although, once again, some conspicuous cash has landed on Everton of late.
* HULL CITY v FULHAM - A dead market.
* MANCHESTER UNITED v NEWCASTLE UNITED - Some interesting insider money both ways. But the general momentum has been against Man Utd across the planet. ##############.
* MIDDLESBROUGH v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - Mug money lands on Spurs every time they make another high profile signing.
* SUNDERLAND v LIVERPOOL - #########################################################################################################################################
* WEST HAM UNITED v WIGAN ATHLETIC - Dead in the water until certain people disclose their hands.

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It is not only referees in football matches that fix market outcomes.
Quoting from The Economist (about the banning of short-selling of 17 financial firms until August 12th - the glorious 12th?): "Bear markets often involve bare-knuckle fights, but it is still a shock when the referee starts punching below the belt... The Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) moves deserve scrutiny. Investment banks must have a dizzying influence on the regulator to win special protection from short-selling, particularly as they act as prime brokers for almost all short-sellers. There is, as yet, no evidence that market abuse has driven down financial share prices - and plenty that their trashed balance sheets and credibility have".

Such things are of minimal consequence to Hank Paulson and Goldman Sachs.
The financial markets are being gamed by insiders with access to highly privileged information and control over the levers of regulatory governmental power.
Lo and behold!
The football betting markets are being gamed by insiders with access to highly privileged information and control over the levers of regulatory governmental power.

But, at least there is a trade in this nonsense.
This trade must be obvious to all.
We'll share it with you anyway.
The FTSE is hovering around 5350 (we accept your thanks for the freebie advices suggesting to sell at 6700, 6400, 6000 and 5500, by the way), while Wall St is around 11,300.
These are manipulated prices. If short-sellers were being accommodated in the financial shares under Paulson's protection, these prices would be markedly lower.
However, the psychological impacts of this market manipulation will not be lost on short-sellers when they are once again allowed to trade on the allegedly (and laughably) free markets. Major shorting will be markedly reduced for fear of yet more market abuses from the regulators.
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In the medium term, ####################################################################################################################################################################################################################

Of course, at least the powers-that-be have a choice.
They might select Recession or Inflation.
The former is preferable for the planet.
But the latter is preferable for the financial elite in the very short term.
The financial elite are only currently thinking in the very short term.
The major downside in this ruse is the fact that, by choosing Inflation, the elite are merely exacerbating the negative impact that the Recession will eventually have.
The choice isn't Recession or Inflation, but, rather, Recession or Inflation-Followed-By-An-Even-Deeper-Recession.
That would be, Recession or Depression.

You know now, innit.

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© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological