While the media circus has been following the "real" news - Is Joey Barton a racist thug? Is there any point to England's friendly in Austria? Will Berbatov try in his next game? Why has Michael Owen stopped playing (again!)? - there is proper stuff going down at UEFA.
It is typical of a largely eurosceptic island like England that minimal mainstream media attention has been given to these major power machinations which will shape the future of the European and, indeed, the world game over the next decade and a half.
Earlier in the year, we provided several posts about the commercial logic behind and the timetable to the onset of the European Super League (ESL) and Gordon Strachan's comments on last night's BBC Inside Sport programme have brought this whole area back under media scrutiny. Strachan reckons that: "There will be a new structure, a new body. The powers that be, the businessmen coming into football now, will say 'forget FIFA, forget UEFA, we're so powerful we'll have three (European) leagues with the best 60 clubs'."
The power struggle between UEFA and the G14(18)(50) is directly linked to the development of the foundations of the ESL and it is our belief that a blueprint for the ESL already exists. But before going on to the impacts of the current negotiations, lets get bang up to date with the recent rumblings.
Michel Platini has shaken things up since becoming UEFA President and we judge the man to have a more righteous hidden agenda compared to the previous regime. But, an agenda he has and the targets of his inverted snobbery are powerful enough not to have to do compromise. The result has been conflict in the corridors of power. Platini stepped back from his original stance of reduction of Champions League representatives from the Big 3 countries from 4 to 3. Evidently not a goer, he then restructured his position to one whereby the fourth placed team would be replaced by the domestic cup winners. This was anathema to the G14(18)(50) and the lobbying group set about establishing a new arrangement which was, apparently, agreed in principle yesterday although diplomatic secrecy means that we will all be awaiting with baited breath for the UEFA executive meeting in Lucerne on December 1st for confirmation. The final agreement scraps the idea of domestic cup winners having a route to the premier club competition and Platini's initial plan has been watered down to something which looks remarkably similar to the situation we have currently - the third placed teams in Italy, Spain and England will now enter the competition directly at the Group Stage (a victory for the lobbyists) while the fourth placed team will now have to survive the exertions of two Qualifying Rounds against pub teams from the likes of Belarus and Macedonia prior to being presented with their rightful place at the top table (a very very minor defeat for the lobbyists).
Having negotiated a victory from what was previously an impasse and, prior to that, a potential defeat, the G14(18)(50) then did the quantum thing and disappeared. Literally! Last week, the G14(18)(50) announced that it was disbanding and that the annual general meeting was cancelled with immediate effect. This volte-face is evidently a major short-term strategic adjustment. The aim of the lobbying-body-that-is-no-more is to undermine UEFA from within which is presumably what was meant by their statement regarding "working with UEFA". Because this is the reality of the situation.
Platini has drawn very clear battle-lines in his confrontation with the powerful clubs. He has, one by one, picked off the various transnational representative bodies and converted them to his agenda to allegedly democratise football on the continent. Increasingly isolated and with some of their employees effectively lining up with Platini - the Fédération International de Footballeurs Professionels (FIFPro) being the most pertinent - the G14(18)(50) have responded by gaining a negotiated victory regarding Champions League placings in return for a commitment to the UEFA umbrella. Now, if you have a room to let, you don't offer it to Rupert Murdoch unless you fancy losing the family silver and Platini has, to football's detriment, lost the short-term battle and has sown the seeds of his defeat in the longer term encounter by inviting the power teams on board. Minimal blame may be placed on Platini here. It was a no-win situation from day one.
The G14(18)(50) gain further competitive advantages via this change of strategy. As those effete betrayers of humanity discovered to their cost in Moscow last month, the selection of referee is a vital input to the integrity of the game. The G14(18)(50) have won all the Champions League competitions since time immemorial but, under Platini, it had become evident that UEFA was exerting power on the pitch too. Much better to be a sleeping giant within UEFA than an increasingly isolated yet still hyper-strong entity outside of it was the strategy of choice.
What about the 32 teams who had allegedly been approached earlier in the season for the expansion of the power lobby to 50 teams? Chelsea allegedly declined the offer and UEFA made counter-representations to the other second tier clubs. The carrot offered was the UEFA Strategy Group. This body is chaired by cuddly Kenyon (Chelsea's man on the inside) and represents over 100 of the top clubs on the continent. It is the 54/60 teams who represent the apex of this hierarchy that will form the pool for the ESL (54 if an 18 team per league system is employed).
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The outcome of this six months of turmoil is that not very much has altered. In the short term, the Champions League will look exactly the same as this year's competition and we can expect the frequency of the 7-0's and 8-0's to increase as the skill inequality continues to expand. The G14(18)(50) will now morph into the G14(18)(50)(54-60) which is enough of a challenge to my limited typing skills to be shortened back to our original G14(18). Even though this organisation no longer exists, we would expect the entity to act informally together within the UEFA system in order to achieve their medium term aims. If we are looking for integrity here, the UEFA Strategy Group has scored an own goal by allowing Kenyon to top the tree. In the end, the money will side with the money as the ESL becomes the reality.
"It [the ESL] will be that powerful that I think FIFA would have to go along and say 'we better let them get on with it because they'll just keep the players away from international level'" said Strachan later in last night's programme. Both FIFA and UEFA understand their associative roles in the future of the great gambling sport of football and, as with the hysteria over the Champions League fourth spot, they also understand the correct posture to assume in deference to one's masters.
So, who is willing to open the index market on when the ESL will come to fruition? If we were to establish a book on this event, seasons 2011/12 and 2012/13 would be the market leaders which, unfortunately, provides only 4/5 seasons for Blackpool to break into the Premiership top five.
Bring it on. As the formation of the ESL is inevitable and many domestic and Champions League matches are actually mismatches, lets get the leagues established sooner rather than later - there is a far greater chance that the infrastructure will have some meritocratic input and democratic design if Platini is still UEFA President while the process unfolds.
It is of little value taking an idealist stance on these matters. Money won nearly two decades ago and we are limited to a role of micro-influence on the new realities. But Chomsky is undoubtedly correct in asserting that incremental struggle equates with revolutionary struggle and that the correct tactic must be sought for the particular circumstance.
Still, at least none of this is as critical as Friday night in Vienna. Apart from the cash and a little betting market earner for insiders, why was a friendly international abroad arranged just before the supposedly vital Euro 2008 Qualifier against Croatia? In the initial reality, the obvious structure was for England to fail in an amateurish fashion against the Austrians prior to routing the Croats to allow the paralytic sychophants (a Stasi description of the English in case you were wondering...) to gloriously qualify for the summer extravaganza. The new reality is something else. However, the Austrian encounter is nothing but a triumph of mismanagement.
Can't wait for the "Viennese Waltz/Whirl" and/or "Goodnight Vienna" sort of headlines...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
