It is a pity that the geopolitical machinations of Israel don't receive the same degree of media attention as their footballing ones as page after page after page discusses the realities about to be unleashed onto our horizons.
Tomorrow's Israel versus Russia is a major problem not only for England, the Football Association, the media, the bookmakers, UEFA and the feelgood factor of a nation at large, it also has the potential to cause issues regarding the integrity of the game as a whole.
The inappropriate linkages and liaisons in various aspects of politics, business and football between the two nations significantly increase the probability of the match being a done deal. Fair enough, there's a whole load of done deals out there and this one is only worthy of note due to the implications regarding English qualification. However, the potential opposite dynamic against this power base is represented by any or all of those listed above as being most negatively undermined by Three Lions failure.
UEFA have selected the two Stefanos to officiate - match referee Stefano Farina and primary assistant referee, Stefano Ayroldi. Farina is one of Platini's finest and he has been known to put in match performances that are positively correlated with institutional desires (in the opinions of some). Ayroldi is most definitely problematic although in a manner that is proprietary analytical territory so we are not willing to discuss here.
And the bookies are facing a massive hit on the event. All the big big money in Asia has been on Russia and, additionally, the layers face having to market Euro 2008 without the xenophobic pound entering the satchel. The price is already ludicrous for a game approaching anything like legit. Under normal circumstances, the match would have Russia as 0.15 goal favourite, as I write the market is hovering around Russia -1.40 goal which is a heavy eradication of value. In addition to the footballing links represented by the likes of Abramovich, Grant, Zahavi, Gayadamak Mk I and II and Eli Azur, Zahavi's partner in crime, there are also issues over Abramovich funding Israeli youth football and media links that will make money out of Russia reaching the finals as both Zahavi and Azur have stakes in the Israeli company with exclusive media rights to Euro 2008 where the massive Russian emigree population in Israel makes profit a sure thing as soon as qualification is achieved.
Steve McClaren, when not travelling to America for no reason whatsoever, has been busy consulting the weather forecasts that at one time were predicting temperatures in the eighties for Tel Aviv tomorrow. Most suitably for such a spectacular event, 68 is now the projected fahrenheit. The Incompetent One should really already be on his way but there are those within the game that believe that something can be done to rescue the Anglian dilemma. One of the reasons for the pulling of most of the markets offering odds on the next England manager was the rumour that a deal might be possible that can allow McClaren, Lampard, Owen and co to walk out next summer without any hint of shenanigans being behind their place in the Finals. Lets have a look at some (but not all) the options:
i) UEFA can ban someone. England will almost certainly have the highest points total of the third place non-qualifiers. If Platini is able to generate some arbitrary reason why any particular qualifier should not be allowed to take part in the event, bob's-your-uncle. Current favourites for omission in an office straw-poll are Romania, Russia, Croatia or Turkey (if they get the better of Norway).
ii) Austria could pull out. Not as preposterous as it seems this one... A petition, already with tens of thousands of signatures, is being prepared demanding that the national team withdraw from co-hosting next summer's event due to the fear of the team being an embarrassment to the nation. Like all ex-imperial countries, Austria has both an inflated opinion of itself on the world stage and a rampant right wing - step forward Jörg Haider - and the thought of overbearing failure in an international spectacular is too much for the national psyche to bear. The absurdity would be that Austria would be replaced by an England team destined to be an equal embarrassment to their nation.
iii) Play the markets. The global football betting markets are becoming more and more like humongous holographic poker tables at which we all take our seat. The Russian and Israeli bookmakers are already massively involved in the Asian markets bidding up their strong hand. The Russian/Israeli power lobby are financial pragmatists. A co-ordinated cartelised trading strategy by the major west European trading firms together with some supportive input from the Far East could create skewed incentives to an extent that it might be in Abramovich's interests for Russia not to qualify. Potentially costly (very!) to the layers if Roman does the bluff call...
iv) Fred Done, the owner of the hyper licensed betting office that is the Old Trafford franchise, is offering a £50K Mercedes to any Israeli who scores a winning goal against Russia tomorrow. This manner of skewing incentives, and creative marketing, may well persuade certain insiders to behave accordingly. Its all a matter of incentives. Everybody has a price and that price varies in relation to the kudos of winning (as opposed to deliberately not).
v) Food poisoning. Martin Jol would probably still be in a job if the urban myth of the stomach bugs hadn't ensured that North London enemies Arsenal qualified for the Champions League in their place. A chef's hat full of shekels or dollars should do the trick...
vi) UEFA could resort to form and simply change the rules. As Everton found out in another piece of establishment power play favouring city neighbours Liverpool when the Toffees were chewed in Romania allowing UEFA to maintain no more than four representatives per country after they rewrote the rule-book in crayon following that night in Istanbul.
vii) As we have posted previously, suitcases of money are a major motivational tool around the Mediterranean and, increasingly, the practice is gaining a wider acceptance. And it is through the obsessive media micro-focus on the Israel v Russia game that, at times, borders on the anti-semitic in its generalisations that the proper direction for focus is suitably ignored. Suitcases of money may come from either direction and, as with so many late season games in Serie A and La Liga, we are in a bidding war for control of the Israeli motivation. Furthermore, if Macedonia beat Croatia and England overachieve to the required level at Wembley next Wednesday then the Samaritans will be spared a hectic evening whatever occurs in Tel Aviv. The main problem with this approach is that Croatian post-war nationalist fervour would demand a hefty and possibly prohibitive price. However, the structures exist. One of the prime reasons for the deceleration on Croat membership of the EU is the unreformed mafiosi that dominate business and political life in the country. Additionally, there is a culture of bookmakers meeting sport and doing the mutual backscratching thing. Lots of cash (and I mean lots...) plus a commitment to a future Euro Finals being held in Croatia would probably do the trick (Croatia's joint bid for the 2012 event with Hungary achieved nil points in the vote). De Bleeckere officiates which has to be good news. But for whom...?
viii) A less preferable option is for the suitcases of money to be deposited in Skopje instead. A poor pitch with motivational incentives frequently does the trick in Spain and Italy. Mr De Bleeckere would have to be mentioned in relation to this option too.
Assuming that the Israeli/Russian part of any deal is internally watertight, there is little that UEFA or anyone else can do to change the outcome. A similar event was Juventus v Siena a couple of years back in Serie A when The Old Lady raced into a 3-0 lead within 8 minutes in a critical end-of-season title race event - not much any official can do about that. UEFA also runs the risk of making a global media event a farce if one assumes the solidity of the event. Power groups battling on a football pitch in the full glare of global media attention is rarely an edifying sight.
One final option that is open to bookmakers is one employed in various leagues around Europe on the final rounds of matches. If there is nothing that may be done to prevent a reality coming to pass and this reality is widely perceived by the public, all parties may get together in a damage limitation exercise to achieve a peculiarity in outcomes which still result in the medals being placed around the same necks but with the extra bonus of financial benefits for all market participants aware of the scam. The cartel participants require trust to already exist between the parties for such an agenda to be put in place particularly when the events are not concurrent. Trust is conspicuous by its absence in any personality profiling of Mr Abramovich which probably makes this one a no-no.
If none of the above corruptions are able to be perpetrated and other potential routes are not explored, we will be left with a damning failure for the English game. All the xenophobes are already out there blaming the foreigners who are preventing England from reaching their deserved heights. Quotas, protectionism and restrictions on freedom of movement are the campaigns of the day and, yet, the reasons for England's possible non-qualification lie nearer to home. Market influenced and deliberate underperformance in several of the early group games may prove to be one episode of brinksmanship too far. After the Macedonia and Israel drawn matches, there were lots of insiders laughing all the way to their offshore financial centres - a prime example of short termist business psychopathy.
UEFA is bombarding us with marketed blurb about next summer's competition. EXPECT EMOTIONS we are told. The only emotion will be disappointment and the only thing we expect is corruption. And lots of it...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
