The final phase of the season is critical for clubs financially for a whole spectrum of different reasons the impacts of which we focus on in this post. As football continues down the road of selling out to the dollar, the rewards and punishments represented by winning competitions, losing titles and suffering relegations are obviously increasingly significant - the financial dichotomies being much more marked in a world where the gap between the rich and the poor continues to expand.
PERFORMANCE ENHANCING SUBSTANCES (PESs) - Many teams utilise PESs at various times within the season but such usage is particularly evident in the season's latter stages. Our Trading Team employ neural nets and other contemporary technologies to analyse substance abuse as, for obvious reasons, clubs tend to be sensitive about breaking the rules. Often the utilisation of PESs doesn't impact on the market price due to this isolationism by the competitors. Entertainingly, this seeking of an illegal competitive edge frequently results in no advantage being gained as all participants utilise the same PESs and masking substances in the same window.
AGREED DRAWS - Many territories, but Italy in particular, have arranged outcomes on end of season games when it is in the interests of both teams for such an outcome to occur. Sometimes prices on a draw in Serie A can be in the vicinity of 1/2 (1.50) as opposed to the average seasonal draw price 9/4 (3.25). Such events are not appreciated by bookmakers and many market makers refuse to price up the matches.
MOTIVATIONAL MONEY - In La Liga, for example, teams involved in the race for league honours will hand over suitcases of euros to the opponents of their competitors when, under normal circumstances, these opponents would be mentally already on the beach. The payment is a nice little earner for the mid-table team and has obvious benefits to the procurer. Somewhat surprisingly this practice is entirely an accepted part of the late season run-in in Spain. In recent years, we believe that a similar manipulative infrastructure has taken root in the Premiership but with added contortion that the suitcases emanate not only from competitor clubs but also from bookmakers.
PROHIBITIVE MARKET PRICING - Market makers will remove any potential value in trading on many late season certainties and sometimes such pricing is so extreme that there is value and profit in taking a contrary position particularly if an analyst has evidence that a suitcase or two might be involved in the match.
ABUSE OF HIERARCHICAL POWER IN A TERRITORY - Every country has it's power clubs. When these teams no longer have their competitive destiny in their own hands, they seek to influence external events in their favour not through the bribing of the relevant team(s) but through control of the match officials. Italy and Germany yield many such instances although it should be noted that the Bundesliga have cleaned up their game since the Hoyzer scandal. Where Italy ostensibly deals with manipulations but actually employs sleight of hand and the English pretend that corruption could never occur in their green unpleasant land, the Germans have targeted all market and match manipulations in their leagues - the probability that the mighty FC Bayern will not achieve Champions League qualification this season is an outcome of this cleansing.
STRATEGIC FOCUS ISSUES - All teams develop pre-season strategies relating to their aims in the campaign ahead. As the season approaches the final phase, these strategies become more critical. Looking at the Champions League Semi Finals as an instance, Milan and Liverpool have had the premier European competition as their prime objective all season. These teams are able to rest players in domestic games where their limited aims have already virtually been achieved. Their Semi Final opponents are in a different ballpark as they are involved in three separate competitions - the strategic focus is vitally important for Man Utd and Chelsea as there is no likelihood of either team winning all three tournaments and a lack of strategy may even result in failure on all fronts.
CLUB MOTIVATION - When a team no longer has any reason to perform as their season's goals have either been achieved or are no longer feasible, they may react in a variety of ways. Some totally switch off and treat themselves to an extended close season break while others remain professional and some teams even perform at a higher level once they are able to relax from the rigours of achieving their initial targets.
LINKED EVENTS - Analytically, one of the most tricky areas to solve are linked concurrent events. As an example, imagine that Chelsea and Man Utd go into the last round of matches level on points but with the Mancs goal difference being markedly preferable. Any view on the Chelsea v Everton match has to take into account what is happening at Old Trafford. If United move 3-0 up by half-time then Chelsea effectively have no reason to waste their energies and there will be a temptation to avoid any potential injuries for the following week's FA Cup Final. Would you want your mortgage on Chelsea in these circumstances? I think not.
In summary, the latter part of the season is where the professionals really reap their beneficial rewards at the expense of other market participants. Complex modelling across a range of markets is necessary in real-time and arbitrage opportunities abound. Creative lateral thinking is the order of the day and, most critically, every single competition has it's own unique structure and, consequently, needs to be modelled in an entirely radical and distinct format. Inside information in such windows is very very precious indeed...
