The suspension of seven Italian referees to add to the already sidelined Massimo De Santis who is banned until 2011 is a rather selective punishment as we posted previously (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/04/thank-goodness-corruption-only-occurs.html). In this post, we offer an analysis of the machinations that allow other perpetrators to continue with their corruption of match outcomes despite the overall effort to clean up the game in Italy.
Analysis of the thirteen referees who have been banned or suspended at various points in the 2006/07 season is firstly undertaken to check for correlation between crime and punishment. From our proprietary database, the following number of links between the targeted referees and the clubs that have been punished for their match manipulation may be collated:
Juventus - 6 linkages resulting in relegation; the loss of two Serie A titles; financial instability; mass exodus of players and staff.
Milan - 4 linkages resulting in a loss of 8 points.
Lazio - 3 linkages resulting in a loss of 3 points.
Reggina - 1 linkage resulting in the loss of 11 points.
Fiorentina - 1 linkage resulting in the loss of 15 points.
It hardly requires the application of rocket science to see that the punishment is highly partial. Aside from the heavy handed treatment of the Old Lady of Torino, the two right wing clubs (Milan and Lazio) have effectively got off virtually scot-free. Both of these teams have assured themselves of Champions League football next season while Fiorentina will miss out purely due to the disparity in punishment. Similarly, Reggina, despite achieving a points totalisation that would place them in the top half of Serie A, will be probably resident in Serie B for season 2007/08. Evidently, the power status of Berlusconi, Galliani and Lotito ensured preferential treatment.
In support of this assertion, we have looked at the linkages that exist between Italian referees still on the roster and the leading Italian teams. The results are disturbing for those who believe that that Serie A has moved forward on the issue of corruption.
Rosetti - links with Lazio, Milan and Roma.
Trefoloni - favours Milan, Inter and Roma.
Palanca - supportive of Milan and Juve.
Girardi - big on Roma.
De Marco - generous to Milan and Fiorentina.
Pantana - shows bias to Roma.
Between them, these officials have presided over 65 games in season 2006/07 (20% of the total). Other officials also exhibit bias but we have only highlighted the referees where such bias is statistically significant.
We have previously indicated that corruption of football in Italy is correlated with politics. Milan got away with murder while Berlusconi was in power and Roma have been similarly aided in the current season. Undertaking similar analysis that was provided for the Premiership (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/04/who-do-premiership-referees-really.html) with regard to refereeing bias in the current season for a selection of Serie A teams is indicative of these biases. An index figure of 100 represents bias totally in favour of a club and 0 represents bias totally against a club's interests. As Romano Prodi gained political power effectively at the end of last season in Italy, the figures for 2005/06 are added in brackets for comparison between the world according to Berlusconi and the one related to Prodi.
Milan 36 (74) differential -38
Inter 46 (50) differential -4
Fiorentina 62 (68) differential -6
Roma 77 (60) differential +17
Lazio 56 (61) differential -5
Reggina 47 (52) differential -5
The marked structural dissimilarities between the two seasons for the two clubs most closely linked to aspects of the political hierarchy are clearly evident. Roma + Prodi = +17; Milan + Prodi = -38.
Additionally, UEFA's refereeing roster has included six Italian referees in the last two years - Paparesta (who has just been re-banned); Messina (banned); De Santis (banned); Farina, Trefoloni and Rosetti. From our data above, it can be seen that we have minimal confidence in the impartiality of Rosetti and Trefoloni also - five of the six referees that UEFA has utilised are, in our analysis, prone to corrupt activities. In this manner, the invidious manner of Italian refereeing expands on to a European stage and the premier continental club and international competitions are similarly blighted. Although we choose the Italian game to focus upon here, the impact of English officials has also been influential on outcome in these European competitions to the degree that low ratings have limited the refereeing opportunities for Webb, Riley and company in the current season's Champions League and UEFA Cup competitions.
The prime issue with corruption in any theatre of life is the viral nature of such corruption. Once one individual takes the bait, the likelihood of others following suit is significantly higher as the manipulators understand the price and the process necessary to achieve their control of a sector. Furthermore, a network effect spreads over to related sectors resulting in a far greater impact than the initial corruption should warrant. Obviously, this structural model is related to Chaos theory.
The degree of corruption in European football has already reached a stage where the butterfly effect has created a continental web of corruption linked to the authorities, governments, bookmakers, regulators, referees and players. It may already be too late to save the game from this virus as the amount of money now being introduced into the process is colossal and, unfortunately, human nature suggests that everybody has their price.
