Big Sam Allardyce has always had a fearsome reputation in the north west of England - I was once told how he was beating the ground repeatedly with a cane while managing Blackpool Reserves to a 6-0 pre season friendly victory over Newcastle Town. Like it mattered...? With the spooky Phil Gartside and, initially, with the talented Phil Brown, Allardyce has transformed Bolton Wanderers from a small town redneck team to a multinational highly professional outfit that utilise cutting edge science to enhance their club's prospects. With no serious money behind them, Bolton repeatedly finish in the top few in the Premiership without the Big 4 (8th, 6th, 8th and currently 5th over last four years despite sometimes switching off late season as European qualification is not always part of the strategic plan). Success requires Mr Allardyce to occasionally sail close to the wind - there is no way a small unmarketable north west club would be able to sustain such a high profile in the Premiership without tilting the playing field in their favour from time to time. Some of the manners in which Bolton achieve this advantage were revealed in the BBC Panorama programme on bung culture - an effervescent Big Sam initially threatened to sue all and sundry before wisely choosing the keeping your powder dry route. Allardyce has to be in the frame for a top tier appointment sooner rather than later. This weekend sees the vital Premiership match at Arsenal which may well determine the fourth Champions League spot. Arsenal are already on the beach and there are boardroom ructions at the Emirates; but do Bolton want it and will the PGMOB let them get it? $4000 is the price for semi-exclusive release of info tomorrow morning at 09:00GMT. Apply as usual.
Speaking of Allardyce, the man likes to maintain his public profile and yesterday's press release where he claims that the Premiership is the best league in the world is, on first glance, confirmed by the presence of three English teams in the Champions League Semi Finals. Looking closer and a more complex picture occurs. The Semi Finals pitch Berlusconi against the Glazers and Abramovitch versus Gillet and Hicks. All four teams are in the top ten in the Deloitte Touche Football Money League (formerly known as "the Rich List" but mysteriously renamed as money is a more neutral term than rich). Power wins out. Liverpool, Manchester United and AC Milan are all first tier G14(18) clubs and Chelsea and Milan are both part of the UEFA Strategy Board. The English league is not the best in the world, it is currently the league with the most powerful corrupting money behind it (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/comparative-corruption-in-major.html). It is also the league that leaves the biggest footprint on the global betting markets on an insider basis.
Deloitte Touche's annual report on the state of football's finances should be treated with considerable disdain. It is an example of the type of poor holistic sector overviews that are produced by outsiders applying a standard formulation rather than a sector specific analysis. At no point does the report touch (touche?) on gambling income nor take account of the numerous other non-accounted revenue streams. The latter would lead to incremental differences while the former would entirely reconstitute the Rich List making it's current form obsolete. Simply, it has no value.
The chances of a three-way Abramovich v. Glazer (Russia v USA) end to the season should be moved significantly closer following the outcomes of this weekend's FA Cup Semi Finals. We advised previously to get on a Chelsea/Man Utd Final at both 3/1 and 6/4 (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/03/fa-fixed-anachronistic-cup-200607.html). During our daily am internet news round-up, we noted The Guardian headlines - Dan Roebuck "Why Watford Could Beat Man Utd To Wembley" followed by a Keith Pullein special "Hope Is Not Lost For Underdogs" and Scott Murray's "Blackburn Rovers v Watford is the 'dream' final most people want". What a load of baloney. Trying to appeal to the occasional one-off National punters with glowing recommendations of belief in underdogs is a great journalistic disservice and, as regards a lack of subtlety...
The British bookmakers are on a short term loser and a medium term winner but their collective short-termism makes it difficult for them to see beyond the end of their noses. Tomorrow is Grand National Day where it is a British tradition to slaughter some graceful athletic creatures in the name of gambling. Betting turnover in this sceptred isle (sic) is humongous for Aintree Saturday as everybody is programmed to have a little flutter on the National. In a triumph of bookmaking scheduling, the FA Cup Finals were set for the same weekend. But the bookies initial hopes of a super bumper day have turned to a nightmare because of the very very high probability that Man Utd and Chelsea must win for a showpiece Wembley Final that will, in turn, repay the bookies for their immediate losses. Most bookmakers are not even pricing up the market for FA Cup Finalists. All press will be persuading punters to back the underdog (thank you The Guardian and, also, a thank you for Frank Lampard's views the other day - insightful journalism par excellence) or to get greedy and bet on HT/FT or Lampard to score and Chelsea to win 7-6 on penalties type of markets. The only sensible bet is the 1/2 available on a United versus Chelsea Final - if you must get involved, take it. Politically, this bet is entertaining. If the dream final is a reality then sensible punters will have won. If the dream final isn't a reality then the bookies will ultimately lose out. I like a twisted rationale that can find pleasure even in a potential loss!
And, while on the subject of corrution and manipulation, Poland is the latest country to show the English how to deal with corruption in football following the demotion of Arka Gdynia and Gornik Leczna for bribery and match-fixing. The decision obviously has no relevance to Poland and Ukraine's joint bid for Euro 2012 Finals which will be decided next week. Perhaps to enhance England's bid for the 2018 World Cup the Premier League should relegate Premiership teams involved in match-rigging although there would not be too many of the current crop of twenty remaining if they chose to do so!
Anybody want any tips on how to destroy steeplechase fences?
