Previous posts (particularly at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/structure-to-avoid-corruption-part-1.html) have addressed the negative aspects of the Premiership using such a small pool of referees compared with other European leagues.
With the introduction of Lee Probert for this weekend's Sheff Utd/ Portsmouth clash, the number of officials used this season reaches 19 (compared with over 40 in Italy).
As with any new official, we will be monitoring Mr Probert's performance very closely - one of our junior traders is attending the game (new referee + Redknapp + James just being too tempting a proposition!).
The limited number of officials is only part of the problem. Take the live Sky Premiership games in 2006/07, for example. Poll, Styles and Wiley have officiated at 9 games; Dowd and Bennett 8; Webb 7; Riley and Foy 6; Clattenburg and Dean 5. At the other end of the range, Rennie, Walton and Mason 2; Tanner, Gallagher and Probert 0.
We would like to highlight a few salient points relating to this data. Firstly, Dermot Gallagher used to be a darling of the powers-that-be. He was even granted a year's grace on his retirement for services rendered. They could always rely on Dermot. In this his last season, the man has been ostracised. No live games and a 2 month ban for not officiating Man City v Portsmouth to the satisfaction of the people that matter in the game (Paparesta was only banned for 2.5 months for his role in Moggiopoli!).
Secondly, in 2005 Mike Dean was suspended for taking a role (against the terms of his contract) in Arbitros Racing - an online racehorse syndicate. The length of his ban? Two and a half months. Dean is a favourite of the Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) and, with a decade of service to come, represents a key part of the future of refereeing in this country.
Thirdly, we monitor volatility across all market sectors as a central part of our trading operation. Guess which two referees are rated the most volatile in the Premiership according to our databases? Poll and Wiley! Spooky, or what?
The reason that the choice of officials for the live Sky games is so important is that global betting turnover is significantly higher on these live events. Additionally, there is much greater liquidity for trading these games in-running.
We would not suggest any link between any of the above individuals and any betting organisations - feedback loops are complex analytically and one can only determine manipulative structures as opposed to forensic criminality. We would suggest, however, that both a larger pool of match officials and a greater distribution of referees for the live games would minimise the possibilities for any grouping to aim to manipulate the outcomes of Premiership football matches.
The rumours that the PGMOL is to select 10 elite officials for next season should be a major cause for concern within the game.
