Once each month, we reprint something from long long ago...
The post below was first published in August 2008, at the very beginning of last season.
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"The Man With The Key Is Not Here".
Whenever you reach the termination of a cul-de-sac of investigative research in China, this is the statement that reveals the futility of any extra efforts on that particular line of enquiry.
Forget it.
The Key is not for the likes of you.
Today is a first for Football Is Fixed.
We are going to provide you with The Key to a few floor-level rooms.
We do not think that you will like what you see.
Subprime.
One of my colleagues has spent the last month in China and the Far East.
His task was a potent mixture of broker appraisal, debt recovery and the monitoring of the Olympic Games underground betting markets.
Additionally, our prime Asian broker, whom we have traded with for over a decade, agreed to give us an exclusive interview regarding the state of football...
...from the perspective of an Asian bookmaker.
Below are some selected sections of the original transcript together with some explanation of the subject matter covered (for readers not aware of how the global betting markets function).
Dietrological (our Football Information Provision Service) have a dichotomous relationship with the Far East - our very best contacts and the very best analysts are South-East Asians; our very major debtors are also dotted around the fringes of the global football gambling engine-room.
Yet, from the coverage of the English game in the media circus, you would not be aware that the Far East has any impact on the sport.
The media prefers the spectacle to reality.
The media peddles the illusion of the hyperreality.
So, my man started the conversation with focus on the power of the Far East betting markets.
FIF: "In Britain, there is no public knowledge of the importance of the betting markets in Asia. Does this surprise you?".
Mr. P: "Most people do not understand what they are seeing. They accept what they are told. ###############################################
FIF: "Okay, there is a betting market on a top English game that is liquid to the $2 billion level. #################################################################### #########################################################. Does this money influence match outcomes?".
Mr. P: "Yes, in most cases Premier League games are hit by the markets. The hit varies. ################################################################
#########################".
FIF: "So, for example, lets look at the big two matches that opened the English season - Chelsea versus Portsmouth and Manchester United versus Newcastle - I'm told by the office that both these matches were fixed. Is that true?".
Mr. P: "Yes".
FIF: "How were they fixed?".
Mr P: "############################ were for Chelsea. Very big money was down on Chelsea ############################. Clever money. ##########. The result was fixed".
FIF: "And the United game?".
Mr. P: "########### fixed it. ##################################. The big traders were changing their positions - one way, then the other team, then back again. ##### ########### stopped it".
FIF: "Stopped it?".
Mr. P: "Yes".
FIF: "How?".
Mr. P: "I only tell you something. ################################### - ##########
################################################################################
########################################
FIF: "In Asia, this is accepted. In Britain, they pretend that it does not happen. Why is that?".
Mr. P: "You complain about Chinese gymnasts being small, but do you complain about American and European gymnasts being big through doping? You see what you want to see".
FIF: "You have been involved in the Asian markets for a long time, what changes have you seen?".
Mr. P: "More money now. Money is more important now. In England, ##################
########################. The private markets are powerful. ################ is now the most important person in the game. ################### fighting to control it. In Italy too".
FIF: "When you started, Asia dominated the markets through superior analytical skills and clever trading techniques. It has become more difficult recently, hasn't it? ############################################################################# ################################################################################# #######################".
Mr. P: "Western traders are shit. They fight, they shake hands, they fight, they shake hands. They do not think about tomorrow, only today. ###################### #############. There is different mafia. ###################".
FIF: "######################?".
Mr. P: "##########################".
FIF: "In England, people are slowly accepting some of the things that have been knowledge in the trading community for a long time eg the use of performance enhancing substances (PESs), corrupt ####################, ############## involved in match outcomes, the regulators and authorities treating the game as a product with a defined outcome etc. Have you noticed this with your clients?".
Mr. P: "Yes, but it is black and white/ yin and yang. First, they say soccer is not corrupt. Never. It is clean. Then, they find the truth and, now, all soccer is corrupt. Every game is corrupt. Every game is different. It is a different market. Not black. Not white".
FIF: "English football is not popular in China as a sport but it is very popular as a gambling medium. Why is this?".
Mr. P: "The betting markets. This is the only reason. The games are in the night. But you can bet more money and the street knowledge is very good".
FIF: "Compared to Europe?".
Mr. P: "Yes".
FIF: "Over 60% of the readers of the Dietrological blog live here in the Far East, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, but the blog is banned in China. Why do you think that is?".
Mr. P: "I don't know. Lots of things are banned. ################################ #######################".
FIF: "I want to return to the subject of referees. The referee is big information now. The authorities understand this and this season has seen further delays in the release and the publicising of the match officials [for example, UEFA only publicised referees for the Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round at 11:00 GMT on the day of the match]. In the Premier League, things have changed too. I am told that referees are complaining as the weekend appointments are not being released until late on the Tuesday night, rather than a week earlier as used to be the case".
Mr. P: "The referee selection is changing the markets. I want to trade big on West Bromwich and Everton. How can I? If the referee is ########, ######## will probably win. If the referee is ########, ######## will probably win. There is lots of money and small wages. This is why Champions League selection is so late".
FIF: "What do you think about the impact of Thaksin Shinawatra on the English game?".
Mr.P: "##########################################################################".
FIF: "We understand that Thaksin has very close links to the Bangkok betting markets".
Mr.P: "##########################################################################
##########".
FIF: "Of course, the problem with these very liquid and very private markets is that they are only partially visible to outsiders. More importantly, these markets are not regulated by the game. By allowing anonymous trading of tens of millions of dollars on football matches, isn't the sport simply selling out to the markets?".
Mr. P: "Yes. Soccer sold out. ##########################################. Soccer is very big betting. The limits are higher and higher. They go up by ##% a season".
FIF: "Do people ever not pay you?".
Mr. P: "Only once [laughs]".
FIF: "What is the view over here about the Premier League plan to bring English games to Asia and to other parts of the world?".
Mr. P: "Big betting and big markets. Some people objected and said 'no' but the markets will be big enough. In China, the match is not important. Sunderland or Manchester, its the betting that counts. It is easier to bet when not at the match".
FIF: "So, ###########################################?".
Mr. P: "Yes".
FIF: "Which other European leagues have the most gambling activity? We trade on the big six tournaments [Premier League, Serie A, Champions League, La Primera Liga, Internationals (UEFA or FIFA) and Bundesliga] but which other leagues are big in the betting markets?".
Mr. P: "Russia, Israel, Beitar Jerusalem games are very big betting. The same people as Portsmouth. ################################################################# ########################### Most countries. ######## is getting very bad. So is ########. And #########".
FIF: "But England is the worst?".
Mr. P: "Yes".
FIF: "Okay, finally a fixed question! One of the reasons for this interview is because we share a common goal with regard to the football betting markets. At the moment, the people who control the betting markets, ############################## #################, are ######### in both their activities and intent. The organisations and individuals who are gaining financially are only gaining due to these corrupt practices. Dark pools of anonymous trading are destroying both the game and the possibility of a competitive and meritocratic marketplace. The global betting markets must be properly regulated to limit the amount of insider trading and market abuse that dominates the current set up. Is there any chance that an alternative market could be established soon with proper levels of liquidity and security of payment?".
Mr. P: "The problem is this. How do you regulate a global market? Who says 'yes'? The best is for markets on the bourses. There will always be the black market".
FIF: "So, the two in parallel. Regulated and non-regulated?".
Mr. P: "Like the bourse, yes".
Gary Imlach: "Conversations with friends revealed a sort of non-specific unease about the brave new world of the Premiership. They were reluctant to mourn the loss of a connection with the past for its own sake; a break with tradition may be no bad thing if that tradition consists of standing to watch the game ankle-deep in a stream of other people's piss. Still, how do you passionately support a PLC? How do you maintain the undying devotion that makes you a fan when the club is doing its damnedest to turn you into a customer? One answer is that you simply blank it all out and focus on the team, on what happens on the pitch. But what if the team is a rotating cast of millionaires with no more connection to your world than Tom Cruise...?".
And, what if you do blank it all out and focus on what is happening on the pitch?
What is it that you see when you watch Manchester United play Newcastle United?
You should be seeing a mixture of ############################################ determining outcome.
An uncertainty defined in a boiler room scam.
Blank it all out.
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