Only 11 days until the Greatest Sporting Show on Earth.
The Olympic Games represents the pinnacle, a summit that cannot be matched by any of the other mega-events like the World Cup or the World Athletics Championships.
Sure enough, the global power loci flex their muscles via their compliant media, and the selection of the host city for the extravaganza is a process mired in the murky world of kickbacks and coercion. But these same charges may be addressed to the World Cup too - all these hyper-sporting-realities are political at their base.
The MAJOR difference with the Olympic Games is revealed by even a cursory glance at the economics of incentives.
Every financial market is driven by the behaviouralism of incentives. Although there are any number of market participants who fail to act in their own best interests, the key players and insiders can generally be relied upon to trade, in what they believe to be, the manner of greatest utility.
The Olympics offer a highly unusual set of betting markets - for virtually all competitors, the kudos of winning gold trumps any consideration to take a backhander from the bookmakers.
And then some.
The Olympic Games are therefore the worst of these global extravaganzas from the perspective of the bookmakers. The layers prefer events where they have proprietary inside information, control of the outcome via participants, or very competitive and highly liquid markets that, at the least, randomise outcome, while, at best, offer insider certainties masquerading as boiler room scams.
One might expect, with the Opening Ceremony just one-and-a-half weeks away, that the trading rooms would be buzzing with anticipation at the betting opportunities offered by the Greatest Show on Earth.
But they aren't.
Trepidation is the generalised trading sentiment.
The bookmakers cannot develop a coercive/kickback edge in the vast majority of events.
Furthermore, inside information is much thinner on the ground regarding injuries and the like...
Truly competitive markets with a virtually level playing field regarding market access and integrity are a bookies nightmare.
With 11 days to go, NONE of the major Asian layers have priced up even one event at the Olympics Games which are, after all, taking place in the Gambling Capital of the World, China. There is not even a mention of the likelihood of markets being developed in these meritocratic events.
Nada!
William Hill, one of the major English firms, have priced up one event - the highly competitive Men's 100 metres - plus a couple of markets relating to the Medals Tables.
But that is it.
And even the 100 metres market is priced up to an outrageous overround, in order to protect the Leeds-based firm still further.
But, this is nothing compared to Betfair.
For one example, the 'market' for the Men's Cycle Track Individual Sprint offers an overround of 400% in an eight runner field.
"Betting As It Should Be"...
By the time the first event hits the ground running, there will be a limited range of markets. We offer a few general prompts to improve your chances of out-trading the bookmakers.
Unfortunately, the remainder of this post and all posts labelled # are available in full to subscribers only.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
