Dietrological/Football Is Fixed attempt to point leisure punters in the correct direction both with respect to the markets that should be considered for trading and the bookmakers that are kosher with regard to offering suitable prices and reliable payment.
Unfortunately, the global betting markets are in a constant state of flux and what might appear to be a stable and non-manipulated betting platform may transform into something much less edifying. Historical examples of layers to avoid have included the now defunct Pointbet and Premierbet plus the Asian underground markets and the traditional bookmakers in Europe that squeeze profits via the abuse of the overround. By applying this template to the available pool of market makers, a careful trader (professional or leisure) is left with a very small number of operators - namely, the betting exchanges, the low overround traditional bookmakers and reliable Asian layers that are not constantly moving across borders avoiding the attentions of Interpol.
We have particularly pointed leisure traders towards the betting exchanges as, historically, they have offered fixed odds overrounds of approximately 4% as opposed to the totally outrageous tilt of 13% with Ladbrokes, Hills etc. Furthermore, the betting exchanges have offered Asian handicap margins only slightly larger than those available in Asia itself and with considerably greater likelihood of payment of winnings being forthcoming.
Therefore, we are not very happy with the current shenanigans at the leading betting exchange, Betfair. This London-based firm has always marketed itself as a fresh betting platform that, by matching clients taking opposite positions on an event, can be profitable merely by charging the winning client a small commission. Prior to this football season, Betfair were charging 5% commission on traditional fixed odds and 1% on Asian handicaps.
As we posted last week, it came as a little shock to find that Betfair have increased the commission on Asian handicaps from early August to an ridiculously greedy 5%. They undertook this sleight of hand not by informing clients directly but by requiring of their clientele a degree in twisted logic in order to be able to find a statement regarding this money grab on some minor forum page at the periphery of the Betfair online platform.
Although the European firms are used by our Trading Team merely for occasional hedging or trade enhancement of our early market positions traded in the Far East, we took it upon ourselves to contact Betfair to try and get an explanation. The 5% commission makes Betfair merely equivalent to Ladbrokes in margin which is not a viable market positioning when the firm allegedly takes a neutral trading stance on markets with no potential to build up inappropriate market liabilities. Lets leave aside, for the moment, the fact that Betfair actively trade their own markets by matching clients positions internally on the occasions where the myopic Betfair traders believe themselves to have a trading edge and lets focus on their marketing motif.
The Betfair Marketing Department expect us all to accept that the old 1% commission level was merely a "promotional offer". This promo actually lasted eight years which is an interesting spin on the truth. Additionally, the marketeers attempt to soften the blow by telling us that we can now trade one or two games per week on Asian handicaps in-running with Betfair. Aside from the fact that it is impossible to find out pre-match which events the Betfair people are offering, the margins available when they do decide to price up an event are not merely prohibitive but are actually the worst ANYWHERE on the planet. For the Sunderland versus Liverpool game on Saturday, the margins on the three available handicaps averaged 40% after commission (Ladbrokes go for 15% and the Asian layers around 7.5%).
Lets put some real money into these data. If one were to take a pre-match position on Team A at -0.5 2.00 with Betfair and the trade is a winner, then last season would have yielded profit of £990 on a £1000 trade whereas this season only £950 would be credited to your account. In-running, the situation is even worse. If one were to trade the same bet as above on the Asian markets during the match, winnings would be around £962.50 on an each-of-two event while Betfair would pay out just £800! Moreover, Betfair shut down their in-running Asian handicap markets as soon as a goal is scored as they simply do not possess the trading talents to reassess the markets in real-time in order to offer new markets for the new reality.
Across the board, the Europeans are averse to offering in-running handicap markets for two major reasons. Firstly, the bookmakers prefer for you to be made to judge a three runner race ie home, away or draw rather than the much more analysable two horse race of merely selecting to go one way or the other from an offered market price. Despite this Europe-wide refusal to offer a fair bet, Betfair are particularly warped when one looks at their self-styled marketing stance of offering something a bit more palatable than the market manipulators running the traditional layers.
And we haven't finished moaning about this bunch of abusers yet.
The commission that Betfair charge is highly regressive so that occasional leisure punters get hammered much more than industry insiders and professionals. But this little inversion is nothing compared to the betting scam that is the Betfair live streaming service.
Betfair have bought the rights to Italian Serie A, Portuguese Liga bwin and selected tennis tournaments and UEFA Cup games to be screened via their live streaming platform. Aside from the incredibly poor quality of the visual images which make any monitoring of the events a bit of a lottery, the Betfair boys have added a massive market manipulation in their favour. The images are delayed by between 10 and 20 seconds which, with the addition of a further 10 seconds to type in your trading position and to get it accepted, can lead to your trade being matched (or not) fully 30 seconds after the visuals you are currently seeing on the screen. Think about this corruption for a moment. You are watching Dinamo Bucureşti against Lazio tonight and the ball is in midfield and you fancy backing one of the teams. Attempting to predict where the ball might be and what match occurrences may happen in the ensuing thirty seconds prior to the trade being registered is a total random walk. This random walk tilts the market massively in favour of the bookmaker as an extension of this example shows. Say, you are backing Lazio and, in the thirty second window, Lazio score. Your trade will not be accepted. However, if the Romanians were to score in this window, you are effectively trading the wrong way on something that has already happened. This is not a viable route to a profitable trading strategy.
Obviously, Betfair are not the only company utilising this particular scam - Sky delay images related to some of their Spanish La Liga football matches while Globet accepts bets out of working hours and, if the event occurs while the company is closed, winning positions are denied and losers are accepted.
The manipulative options for Betfair with regard to tennis markets are even more daunting to a client as a couple aces takes about 30 seconds!
Betfair and their ilk are merely taking advantage of informational noise with a time delay in their favour. No market analyst can predict very short-term market and reality occurrences as the background noise swamps out any possible real data. The case is similar when looking very far into the future - not even Warren Buffett or Goldman Sachs could give you any proper indication of a future share price, say, five years from now. All analysts use the medium term markets both in sports and international financial markets to find value through mispricing. By creating highly corrupt short term markets, Betfair are not only robbing punters via a massive informational advantage discrepancy but they are also gaining control of the medium term in-running markets.
This is a scam, pure and simple.
Our advice? Close your account telling the rogues exactly why and move over to Betdaq (www.betdaq.co.uk) or one of the other betting exchanges that offer more realistic margins.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
