Once per year, Dietrological/ Football Is Fixed do the Berkshire Hathaway thing and we adjust our thresholds of proprietary isolationism to take account of the new market sector realities. We are able to undertake this cyclical review due to our considerable competitive edge in the marketplace. This edge allows us to provide our non-core analyses both for the content of the Football Is Fixed blog and for the annual sale of a selection of High Level Consultancy Documents.
The remainder of this post is related to these Consultancy Documents and, consequently, is only really of relevance to the following groups - bookmakers, professional and serious amateur traders, brokers, market makers, market analysts, journalists, plus football agents, strategists and managers.
Each of the Consultancy Documents cover the global football betting markets and/or the football transfer markets and are offered on a semi-exclusive level with a maximum of five clients for each document. As we defer away from any vestiges of self-promotion, and cash is only marginally interesting to us, we are not particularly bothered how many of these Consultancies achieve maximum uptake. Indeed, generally, we refuse to link with some of the potential recipients of these Consultancy Documents but, in this annual informational extravaganza, our only common interest is your books!
The Consultancy Documents offer cutting edge analyses but we must add a proviso with respect to the global betting markets. The most mature market sectors (Premiership, Serie A, Primera Liga etc) require extensive quantitative analysis and any focus solely on, for example, the fundamental parameters underpinning the outcomes of football matches must also take into account the extensive corruption that is Siamese-twinned with such mature markets. The fundamentals still have a major analytical value but it does not matter how fit a team is if they are up against Howard Webb on a mission, for instance! Despite this proviso, the fundamentals may be developed to actively model ALL secondary territories.
With regard to the football transfer markets, most of the Consultancy Documents may be crafted with basic sabermetric techniques to yield a more accurate reflection of a real market price. It should be remembered that, in an inflated marketplace, a 5% adjustment is valuable and, yet, the application of these data will demonstrate much larger evaluation discrepancies.
Taking it from the top - two, three, four...
* The Ultimate Listing Of The Fundamental Parameters Most Affecting The Outcomes Of Football Matches - This Document covers the 100 most influential factors impacting upon games - from team fitness to the match officials, from rogue players to performance enhancing substances, from analysis of trends to the filtrations that limit the value of all such parameters. Each parameter is thoroughly explored, explained and weighted for market relevance. We also provide some insights into the manners in which such parameters might be combined in creative ways to establish increased market value through configurative and systems thinking approaches. For example, within the Document, a configurative structure is developed to assess the impact of midweek Champions League games on the matches on the following weekend, yielding serious profits in the process.
The value of this Consultancy Document to participants in both the football betting markets and the transfer markets is evident.
Over 90% of the European Leagues may be modelled and traded using these fundamentals and, additionally, these fundamentals form the basis of the assessment of all the more elaborate cartelised and monopolistic Leagues around the world.
With regard to the transfer markets, sabermetrics is only as useful as Titus Bramble unless it is dovetailed with a more serious analysis of the fundamentals. Think about it.
To receive this Consultancy Document, we would require 10,000 of your English pounds ($20,000) - at merely £100 per parameter, this represents extensive generosity and then some.
* The Clattenburg - Regular readers of the blog will be aware that Mark Clattenburg is a bit of an operator. This English referee is of particular interest within the corrupt grouping of PGMOB match officials in that he is ploughing a lone furrow, albeit under the yoke of one Thaksin Shinawatra. Obviously, the rather simplistic angle of The Clattenburg's refereeing of Bangkok City's games forms a minor part of this Document but this is merely the tip of a rather extensive iceburg. The Clattenburg cannot do anything, and we mean anything, without us knowing as we know where his entourage are placing their bets. At only £2500, this not only represents value for trading on The Clattenburg's 25 Premiership games per season but also is just entertaining on the level that last season's best referee has become this season's most corrupt - remember Everton 1 Liverpool 2? We do.
* English Premiership and Scottish Premier League Referee Club Biases - Members of our Trading Team and some poor cash-in-hand merchants have laboriously monitored every single match in these leagues for the last 10 years and 5 years respectively. We have put together an extensive listing of the club, regional and, believe it or not, religious biases of the match officials in the two countries. This data has relevance to both the betting and the transfer markets as the corrupt input of the match officials contorts all of our footballing realities - match outcomes, betting market liabilities and player evaluations. Furthermore, we provide details and weightings on how to monitor any given match official to determine whether or not the said ref is kosher or not. £5,000 and £2,500 are the relevant prices and some of the links are so explicit as to exist as stand-alone models due to the extent of the inappropriate linkages.
* Serie A, Bundesliga and Primera Liga Referee Club Biases - It isn't only the island mentality states that do corruption big style. In this Consultancy Document, we provide the regional and club biases of the match officials from the other three main European Leagues. Not only is this profitable from a trading perspective but also the data may be utilised to assess territorial power gradients. For example, the data for Italy clearly demonstrates that the calciopoli crisis resulting in the relegation of Juventus to Serie B was actually a political act performed on behalf of Berlusconi's Milan who were, if anything, more culpable than the Old Lady. £1,000 each or £2,500 for all three territories are the amounts that will be put towards the house that I intend to build!
* Media Disinformation Sub-Model - In heavily corrupted territories, such as any of those outlined above, the League institutions, the bookmakers and the media work together to provide disinformation to the masses. The creative and configurative modelling of such information establishes stand alone sub-models which may be traded without any access to the more quantitative and complex analytical techniques used by top analysts. This Consultancy Document applies only to the English Premiership but adapatation of the process will yield similar returns in other territories. You are going to make a lot of cash out of this one so we demand a payment of £10,000.
Anybody who is prescient enough to purchase more than one of these nuggets of profit will receive a 10% discount. And, anybody who really wishes to help my construction process can have the whole lot for 25K (a saving of 23%).
Interested? Contact me at footballisfixed@googlemail.com.
Disinterested? Its your life...
To provide examples of the artistic canvas where these types of Consultancy might show their true worth, we will examine the last few days in the only parts of Britain worthy of habitation, Scotland and Manchester.
Craig Levein after the Arabs were miraged out of the fantasy game at Rangers at the weekend: "Its impossible to beat Rangers at Ibrox. The referee bottled it at the penalty. He knew it was a penalty but if he gave it he would have had to send off David Weir. The referee could have just phoned me in the morning and just told me 'Rangers are going to win so just stay home'. There was absolutely no point in even turning up".
In response, Gordon Smith (the SPL version of Scudamore): "To suggest that there was any kind of agenda behind the decisions does a massive disservice to the game".
Similarly, after massive corruptions against their interests over the entire season, Fulham deservedly stayed aloft in the Premiership thanks to the victory over the Pompey Israelites. Yet, surely it is an issue to Reading and Birmingham City that at least one of the match officials for the Pompey/ Fulham game was betting on the Londoners' victory pre-match. The English Premiership - Reality or Illusion?
Okay so, after rolling around laughing for a minute or two, who is really doing the "massive disservice to the game"? Craig Levein? Or Smith, Scudamore, Clattenburg, Shinawatra, Hackett and a whole posse of market makers? And who is going to get fined...?
And tomorrow brings Zenit Leningrad and Dick Advocaat to Manchester to meet the Scottish Premier League. Proper football? Or what...?
We're good at winding things up.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
