What a difference a day makes! A week is a long time in politics!! When the going gets tough, the tough get going!!!
New news is good news if you are able to conceptualise the new structures at speed but, for those being swayed involuntarily and blindly by the winds of change, the lack of a logical reactive adjustment to historical realities can produce devastatingly negative effects.
As with politics, so with football. This last week or so has been massive in the evolving realities that will determine which teams are going to be given the prizes this year. A week is indeed a long time in European football.
Take Chelsea, for example. The corrupt machine has trundled along adequately since Mourinho walked out, the league results were keeping the Russian/Israeli Blues within range of the Premiership leaders while the Champions League break had been utilised to consolidate an FA Cup run. The last week was a defining period for the Abramovich and Kenyon Show. With this year's Champions League concluding in Moscow, a certain Russian autocrat was excitedly considering his commercial options should Chelski manage to reach the final, by hook or by crook (or, indeed, by any other method required). There are dichotomous dynamics relating to this spectacular reality and, although Abramovich will buy the success if that is the only option on the table, it is our view, following recent meetings with our UEFA contacts, that the strongest dynamic is against Chelski and that Abramovich's table of selections is limited in scope. Still, this is not a solid conclusion, everybody has their price and Abramovich will happily engage in a bidding war for control of the tournament. Obstacles may be overcome, business is business...
In the background to the machinations in Europe, Chelski announced their latest annual financial figures which showed a loss of £75 million on a turnover of £190 million. The current projected season for breakeven is 2010 by which time Abramovich will have shed £750 million from his fat wallet together with unknown amounts of under-the-table, kickback, coercive suitcases-of-money sort of expenditure. The actual figure will probably be not far short of £1 billion in order to reach a sustainable business entity.
There are many reasons that Chelski will continue to fail to reap the rewards of Abramovich's bullion but a very key input to this assertion is the financial inadequacy of chief executive Peter Kenyon. Following the release of the accounts last week, Kenyon, in bipolar business mode, stated: "The 2010 breakeven is ambitious. I don't think it is something we are postponing but it has always been ambitious. We are determined to meet it, or get as close as we can". Is that clear? To us, this translates as: "There is no chance of breaking even in 2010 or any other time soon but I am far too weak to face up to my owner with regard to the financial realities created by my incompetence".
Chelski's week of horrors was finally completed with the inevitable defeat to Tottenham in yesterday's League Cup Final. There was only one key factor in this match - Juande Ramos was able to select the squad and adjust formations and style in real time to a different strata of professionalism than Avram and Abramovich (with the latter's pre-match team selection interference). Ramos is one of the best six coaches in Europe, the AA team just don't get it.
Abramovich could, however, gain some respite from his bad week by improving next year's cash flow to the tune of £15 million or so - sack Kenyon and sell Lampard - while also improving his football entity.
It was a redistributive week all round in London with Arsenal managing the treble whammy of securing failure in the FA Cup, the Champions League and the Premiership within 7 days. The seeds of this self destruction lay in three key sources. Firstly, the club refuses to become as corrupt as the opposition. Secondly, the club failed to take the requisite defensive measures to steer clear of malicious forces. And, thirdly, Arsène Wenger made a rare strategic error in failing to finish top of his Champions League Qualifying Group - someone easier than Milan could have created a far different reality over the last seven days.
The start of the Champions League 2nd Phase often solves the season analytically and this season is particularly fat tailed with teams taking on extremely diverse perspectives as we approach the business end of the season.
Take the situation in Spain as an example. With elections looming, the thin veil of pretence that hides the reality that Spanish football clubs are political organs disappears. Football and politics become entwined and some pretty wild analysis may be undertaken on the political prediction markets utilising creative input from the world of football market analysis.
At the beginning of February, Real Madrid were assured of the title. Then it all went pear-shaped with losses at Almería, Real Betis, Roma and at home to Getafe, a sequence only interrupted by a 7-0 victory over one of their supplementary teams, Real Valladolid. Around the same time, Barcelona were poor, Rijkaard was on his way out in the summer (probably still is), Ronaldinho was in party mode, the Madrileños were seven points clear with a home "El clásico" to come... After stumbling to a draw against Sevilla, the Catalans were gifted a victory at Real Racist Zaragoza and then turned in a totally sublime performance last Wednesday at Parkhead. The beautiful football continued yesterday with the dismantling of Levante. Yaya Toure is an awesome player and the movement around the penalty area is Harlem Globetrotter's-like in its speed and intricacy. Proper football...
The rewards offered by modern football act as incentives to the widest possible net of participants. The result is a quality of football that, if it were allowed to grow without the accompanying deadweights of corruption and the gambling sector, would truly be THE global game. We must celebrate the increasingly rare occasions where proper football breaks through the stranglehold of endemic corruption. One such instance was the football being played by Arsenal in parts of 2007; Barcelona are a current example. In a meritocratic game, these teams, playing a modern variant of total football, would be able to succeed and be rewarded with titles and cups. The stifling atmosphere surrounding corruption squeezes the life out of these occasional beacons of what football could be like and the relentless machines of corruption steamroller their way to a sharing of the spoils.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
