Magical Thinking is a behavioural disorder or style that is very common among leisure gamblers. It should not, therefore, come as any surprise to know that Magical Thinking is targeted directly by those that would wish for you to gamble.
Every gambling sector incorporates this fallacious mode of "analysis" into their structure.
In Hong Kong and elsewhere in the Far East, the number 4 is regarded as extremely unlucky while the number 8 is full of harmonious resonances to the extent that, if you are trading the horseracing markets it is vital to take account of the market imbalances created by this illogical thought process ie there is generally only value to be found in opposing horse number 8 while backing horse number 4 is a good thing (obviously with all other factors taken into consideration).
Similar patterns of behaviour are found in other areas related to sport. Some footballers insist on being the last out of the tunnel for a match; some insist on touching the turf before making religious "spectacles, testicles, wallet and watch" signings; others wear particular pieces of clothing or, if allowed, jewelry or their partners underwear. The personal psychology in these instances is slightly different than in a gambling situation. Taking the first example of a player insisting that he be the final entrant onto the field of play, it is evident that, in reality, there is no logical value in this act - unless it allows time for a swift performance enhancing injection! Yet, in the mind of the individual player exhibiting the Magical Thinking, logic plays no part. In a similar manner that some of those weirdo religious cults can convince people of utter nonsense, the player may perceive that such behaviour improves his performance. If he were to take the time and effort to analyse his match performances when coming out of the tunnel last or in any other position within the team, he may well find that there is an improved performance through sticking to his Magical Thoughts. Evidently, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy and cause and effect are inextricably mixed up with attitudes of mind. The only redeeming element to this type of behaviour is that the individual player is in control of the process - nobody else is playing mind games with him.
Which brings me to the main purpose of this post - the mind games of the gambling organisations. I propose looking at just four examples that give some indication of the psychological devices being utilised to empty your wallets at as great a rate as possible. Please note that we are not talking about the modes of corruption that have a negative impact on the contents of your wallet (although, in most cases, the corruption is linked to an extent) but the psychological processes whereby a leisure gambler is fooled into behaviour that is markedly against his/her personal interests.
Gambling organisations thrive on their clients lack of rationality as we will now demonstrate.
* This month yields one of those nutty numerical nuances that the type of person that believes in astrology or numerology just can't resist. July the 7th is 07-07-07. Several religions believe the number 7 to be magical (hence there are a record number of weddings planned in Las Vegas) and the freemason's encyclopaedia, apparently, devotes two full pages to the significance of this Magical number. The casinos are cashing in big style. In Las Vegas, there are too many instances of irrational behaviour being targeted to itemise them all but my personal favourite is the "rumour" that has been perpetrated by the casinos that somebody will win really big on the hallowed date. The "rumour" is that a slot machine has been primed to pay out $1 million on a 7-7-7-7 winning line. Firstly, prove it and, secondly, if anybody can provide me with ANY rational and logical reason why the portentous date is in ANY way more fortuitous that either July 6th or 8th, I will give a free one month subscription to Dietrological Leisure!
* The National Lottery in Britain is similarly psychologically tainted. My tutor when I was writing my thesis ("The Impact Of Conspicuous Money On Outcome In British Horseracing Betting Markets") was Professor Neville Topham. He worked closely with Camelot in both the design of the individual lottery tickets and the mechanisms whereby rollovers may be guaranteed in certain windows (rollovers always have the impact of increasing betting turnover). Many of the numbers in the standard lottery game have Magical significance being perceived to be either lucky or not. Additionally, the distribution of the other numbers is not equal. For example, many people choose birthdays as their numbers which skews the distribution towards 1-12 and 1-30/31. Furthermore, the layout of the numbers is key - people apparently prefer the numbers on the corners, then the edge and then the central numbers. The final piece de resistance was the closing of the game one hour prior to the draw. Neville would not tell me how the draw was fiddled and he left that reality as a little bedtime project for me. Anyway, I reckon I solved it and the one hour gap is very critical for ensuring that a rollover occurs when Camelot wish for a rollover to occur. Think about it!
* The Licensed Betting Offices (LBOs) that litter the high streets of Britain and other countries incorporate psychological abuses on a whole spectrum of levels. Winners do not spend any time in LBOs and the knowledge of this one simple fact allows major manipulations to be undertaken at the expense of the leisure gambler. Indeed, in some ways, I could incorporate this disinformation into our Unified Trading Model (UTM) if I could be bothered. I can't... The layout, the television information, the special offers, the prompts are all geared to maximise returns.
* Online poker sites (with a very very few exceptions) have perfected the manipulation of irrational punters to the greatest degree in recent years. Indeed, Party Gaming even eked its way into the FTSE100 of Britain's largest companies on the back of its behaviourly corrupt platforms. I am told that the simple template is allow a newcomer to win so long as not too much. On return visits, allow low stakes winning to fluff up the old ego before demolishing the player as soon as he/she places proper amounts of money on the virtual table. And virtual is the key. How do you know anything about the house, the table, the other players or the pack of cards? - you might as well just send 888.com or the Racing Post poker site a blank signed cheque. One would like to think that the regulatory capture that enabled this scam to be developed and perpetrated under a Labour government was the prompt that led to that most duplicitous of people, Tessa Jowell, being ousted from her post at the Department of Culture Media and Sport.
We produced four posts earlier in the year outlining the range of psychological styles and disorders that one has to face up to if you are to get involved in any market or gambling situation. Many of the individual issues that we itemised in those posts are visible in the above applications.
To win, or at least to avoid losing to an extent that is beyond humourous, rational behaviour is critical. We all have to confront our behavioural deficiencies and, if possible (and, believe me, it is most definitely possible) turn these negatives into positives.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
