In a previous post (http://trichotomoustriptychities.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/how-to-spot-matchfixing_19.html), we looked at what betting patterns might look like on suspicious matchfixing events.
We also demonstrated that the first statistical link to be sought out in the detection of corrupt events is the one between market activities and on-field behaviours.
In this post we are going to be taking a look at the suspicious patterns on Premier League games refereed by Jonathan Moss together with his potential club bias in favour of West Bromwich Albion which stretches back nearly a decade.
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The Premier League match between Manchester City and Tottenham this season was only the second match in the EPL era that has had 4 penalties and a sending off in the game - 3 of the penalties and the sending off were in favour of the Mancunians.
Additionally, Frank Lampard was offside for the opening City goal and the first City penalty was fallacious too.
Just another bad day at the office for Mr Moss then?
In the Betfair chart below, the major lower graph represents Total Volume/Time on Man City from KO-85m to KO-25m while the major upper chart shows Price changes over the same window (the upper micro charts display Price and Volume v Time over the entire day with the shading representing the highlighted areas of the market).
In the period from KO-60m to KO-40m, 10 bets between £10K and £50K resulted in over £350,000 being traded on Man City at Betfair (over 27% of the total book at the time).
This chart might be compared with £840,000 volume between KO-53m and KO-33m on the Manchester United v Crystal Palace game mentioned in the above post which represented 30% of the volume traded at Betfair at that time.
This match was also officiated by Mr Moss.
We would like to focus on 11 of these events which have experienced particularly suspect betting patterns that positively correlate with match biases/decisions during the game (the table below displays match, percentage dynamics in window, the window in minutes measured from the kick off, key match decisions and the outcome).
Man Utd v C Palace +2.1% KO-50-30m +1xPen/+1xSOff 2-0W
Norwich v West Ham +2.1% KO-45-30m +1xPen 3-1W
Stoke v Chelsea +2.5% KO-45-40m 3-2W
Spurs v Liverpool -2.1% KO-55-45m +1xSOff 0-5W
Hull v Arsenal -1.7% KO-50-35m 0-3W
Arsenal v C Palace +2.0% KO-50-40m +1xSOff 2-1W
Hull v Stoke -1.4% KO-60-40m +1xSOff 1-1W
Everton v Chelsea -3.0% KO-55-45m 3-6W
Swansea v Southampton -1.5% KO-55-35m +1xSOff 0-1W
Man City v Spurs +1.7% KO-60-45m +3xPen/+1xSOff/-1xPen 4-1W
West Ham v West Brom -1.5% KO-60-50m 1-1W
All 11 market positions were replicated in the match outcomes.
All 11 matches showed marked volume dynamics in restricted 10-20 minute windows between KO-60mins and KO-30mins.
In the 11 matches, 11 penalties/sendings off were in favour of the market positions with just one Spurs penalty against.
There are five further events over the last two seasons that are borderline suspicious.
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So, what other evidence can we find?
Mr Moss has a relationship with leading agent and professional gambler John Colquhoun which stretches back over two decades to their time together as players at Sunderland.
After relegation from the Premier League in 2005/06, Colquhoun took on the role of club agent at West Brom.
Prior to the re-establishment of themselves as a Premier League team, WBA had Jon Moss as referee on 7 occasions from 2005/06 onwards.
West Brom won all 7 matches with 7 penalties or sendings off in their favour and none against - this stretches to 11 in favour and none against if the EPL era included. Moss is still to give a penalty or sending off against the Albion in 18 events in total since 2005/06.
IN 29 MATCHES OUTLINED ABOVE, MR JONATHAN MOSS HAS GIVEN 22 PENALTIES/SENDINGS OFF IN FAVOUR OF OUR ARGUMENT AND JUST ONE TOTTENHAM PENALTY AGAINST...
... THE FACT THAT THIS ONE PENALTY WAS OFFSET BY THREE PENALTIES, A SENDING OFF AND AN OFFSIDE GOAL IS MORE THAN ENTERTAINING.
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Some Questions That Need To Be Asked If The Premier League Still Has Any Interest In Integrity
Why aren't Betfair disclosing suspicious patterns to the relevant bodies?
Why are Betfair simply treating such information as insider knowledge to be profited from elsewhere?
Why are the PGMOL repeatedly giving West Brom matches to a referee who has shown such a marked bias towards the club over the last decade?
Why are PGMOL giving Mr Moss so many high betting turnover tv matches?
Why is a professional gambler who is known to take an interest in EPL games allowed to trade his information without going underground?
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IN THE FINAL POST IN THIS MINI-SERIES, WE WILL BE DISCLOSING HOW TO DEFINITIVELY LINK THE SUSPICIOUS BETTING PATTERNS TO THE CLIENTS WHO ATTEMPT TO DISGUISE SUCH BETS VIA THE USE OF PROXIES ETC.
Postscript
@footballisfixed Without mocking certain operations, there is art in sublety not in the absurd. You are pricking your bubble.
— FOOTBALL is FIXED (@footballisfixed) March 3, 2015
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