"Hydrogen..., given enough time, turns into people" - Edward Robert Harrison
We would like to introduce you to DeepFck.
Not DeepMind nor Deep Fake.
But DeepFck.
Books Two and Three of our Trilogy are very different beasts.
Whereas Book One was a postmodern critique of the history of matchfixing, corruption and organised crime in football, Book Two details the evidences that allowed us to make the holistic statements in Book One.
Book One were the court papers.
Book Two will demonstrate how to convince a jury.
Book Three is something else entirely and its purposes are twofold.
Firstly, Book Three explores how to establish bespoke Artificial Intelligence to gain proprietary control of both betting and transfer markets.
Secondly, Book Three introduces an econo-cosmologist construct where we utilise and adapt astrophysics models to create a Unified Trading Model for both football betting markets and the sabermetrics of transfer markets.
Together Artificial Intelligence and the Unified Trading Model will give birth to the Ultimate Trading Model.
Neither Book 2 nor Book 3 will be publicly available.
In effect they are private consultancies in literary form for our Maradona For Green Fields clients only.
All that will be shared publicly is part of the Introduction to Book Three.
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DeepFck will transform the football markets.
The aim isn't to take over the entire betting market process and nor is it to destabilise the transfer markets.
On the contrary.
The aim is to markedly destabilise the betting markets and to significantly increase the efficiency of the transfer markets for proprietary gain and to do so in a manner that doesn't leak to the markets that one is targeting.
To engender these aims requires a marriage of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Unified Trading Model (UTM).
AI can do many things extremely well but we are only interested in some of its spectrum of abilities.
We desire deep analysis of proprietary data to create market edge when combined with the hiolistic template of operation.
This template includes market infrastructure, human psychology, corruption structures and an analysis of organised crime.
AI will aid trading and market making by performing analytics at speed (both betting market and football industry) and performing market orientated tasks highly efficiently.
It will determine very obtuse arbitrage opportunities where risk-free profits may be anonymously secured.
AI will act in a much more unique way in the transfer markets which, being highly inefficient and manipulated, will allow a win-win strategy to be developed.
One seeks players globally who are cheap for the array of talents that they carry.
You embed these players in the most optimised club structure.
You enhance the players and the club.
You sell the players on at a significant profit.
Then you repeat the process.
Tony Bloom at Brighton And Hove Albion has been doing this for years.
Starlizard disrupts the global betting markets.
Brighton And Hove Albion buy players like Caicedo, Mac Allister, Sanchez, Burn, Maupay, White, Trossard, Cucurella, Bissouma etc at bargain price and then sell at significant profit.
But the key aspect is that, to date, the players are never quite the same again at their new clubs.
They over-performed because they were plugged into the Bloom Template.
Similarly with former manager Graham Potter who will never again be what he was on the South Coast.
In International Financial Markets (IFMs) there may not be much improvement in investment strategy due to AI in the short-medium term.
Regulations make it more difficult to create earthquakes in the system.
Our Network have used Neural Networks (NNs) for decades to enhance market analytics in football markets, model historical trading data and to seek repetitive patterns to spot potential market value.
AI optimises this process.
But.
AI struggles with behaviouralism (individual not collective) and corruption in the betting markets.
Individual human psychology is unique as we all possess our ever-evolving compendium of personality styles and disorders.
Meanwhile corruption matrices are also ever-evolving and require both personal links and analytical oversight of the necessary parameters to solve.
These parameters are unusual and like the Big Bang, become something else very quickly indeed, and then something else, and then something else again...
Fragmented cartels in flux are a grin.
With a general NNs approach to trading on the betting markets, you run into difficulties in that your trading behaviour alters the very market conditions under the microscope as trades placed are mimicked externally and exponentially, quickly destroying the value that is being acted upon.
This may only be offset by ever-changing trading strategies and not being too greedy.
The same applies to AI.
Furthermore, in markets like football betting ones where the dominant force is corruption rather than sporting, taking too robust a market position results in the possibility of an entirely new match outcome being helicoptered onto the market in a criminal form of disaster capitalism.
NB All disaster capitalism is criminal.
One club owner utilises another aspect of utilising public brokers to reach a market.
He phones his own bookmaker on a Saturday morning telling the head of trading that his team are not going to win today and asking for the trading room to subtly trade this knowledge in the global marketplace.
All trading rooms leak and the external markets receiving this information have spent time analysing the traders placing such trades.
The price on the club lengthens as the information inflates around the system.
Then the club owner moves in and trades at volume on his club to win at significantly beneficial prices.
And.
To stop his trading strategy being detected and mimicked, he is only 'correct' / 'incorrect' in the inversion of his initial leak 80% of the time.
On a separate matter...
... we love you Celtic, we do!
AI is much more resilient and beneficial in the transfer market because, aside from being inefficient markets, you are not trading against anybody else (either club or agent) directly - competitive bidding is to be avoided as it destroys value.
Agents and other intermediaries are a problematical and inefficient addition to any targeting of real value in the sabermetrics of the transfer markets.
AI plus bespoke sabermetrics is massively profitable.
First mover advantage relating to AI is critical in the betting markets as not every trading operation can beat the market.
The transfer market, in comparison, offers value to all the initial AI operations.
And although one club is limited by regulations on market spend, a true genius like Tony Bloom at Brighton can buy so cheaply and farm the stable of players out to linked clubs, effectively running an array of research labs before bringing the best products to market and monetising the gains.
Matthew Benham achieves similarly at Brentford.
There's room for a panoply of pigs at the transfer trough though.
With the betting markets, it is analytical creativity that enables the AI operation to overperform - that is why individuals with Ph.D's in AI from MIT end up working for South East Asian bookmakers alongside the best market analysts and others with investigative knowledge of the global corruption templates underpinning football.
AI should also reduce margins and, where applicable, transaction costs as dinosaur companies will be undercut by the new kids on the block.
To reiterate, weak form efficiency of the transfer market makes this the prime short-term immediate profit arena but, avoiding greed, the betting markets can be creamed too.
Most (all?) public AI eg ChatGPT is nigh on useless, sometimes producing outputs that are completely false - this is known as the hallucination rate and limits the use of public and most proprietary AI by the uninitiated in betting markets.
The ideal structure is Fintech plus market analysts plus investigative crime expertise plus DeepFck.
Most analytics are rife with cumbersome, error prone, time consuming, manual processes that only view a segment of the overall reality because that is all that is needed if you are a football agent seeking your 15% - the interest isn't in getting value for the club but maximising your take which is how you end up with Jadon Sancho and Harry Maguire at Manchester United.
To develop DeepFck requires isolationism.
It also needs highly creative bespoke inputs not publicly available - fundamentals and configurative parameters,, privileged access to market activity, insider trading and hedging information, intercepts, analytics of criminal networks, unique modelling etc etc.
Much insider trading, for example, is habit-based (or effectively habit-based) due to external time constraints and the like as well as individual psychology.
Peak operators like Tony Bloom use an ever varying template which transforms analysis into a real-time game of Go.
AI ---> Broker ---> General Market is a roll out method but it isn't optimal.
AI + Proprietary Market Access in one operation is.
And you can use and abuse other brokers and market makers to further your own bespoke AI-generated market strategy on match outcomes.
Everything must be in-house.
The security aspects of AI are paramount.
We suggest the following structure as being optimal.
For security, AI should be entirely disconnected from the internet preferably in a Faraday Cage for good measure. AI should have a local 'copy' of the worldwide web to work upon.
You need to design a lean proprietary AI software module that will do the prescribed tasks and nothing else.
It is critical to stop your AI from breaking out as one has to be unsure of how it would evolve with recursive self-improvement.
A break out demolishes the proprietary power also,
All AI outputs should go to just one entirely controlled computer.
Any access to the internet and the AI might start spreading itself online turning into a public good.
You are seeking single source input / single source output software effectively trapped in its own parallel universe with its own computational rules.
Additionally, limit the lifespan of any untrusted code.
Repeatedly erase memory content and reinstall from scratch.
Keep on the move.
It is critical to avoid code being analysed.
AI for use on the betting markets will require repetitive retraining as markets evolve to new corruption structures - clubs become criminalised, owners and managers change, agents fragment and coalesce, players evolve, players are captured, players are coerced, organised crime also evolves, market maturity oscillates as different loci battle for edge, externalities intrude, government interferes...
... thus forcing AI and analysts to train and retrain the outputs.
Human expertise can help avoid AI cul-de-sacs by choosing appropriate inputs and will be able to spot any spurious outputs due to inappropriate pattern recognition.
AI removes trial and error. It makes the most of mediocre human created hardware producing radical improvements leading to novel analytical outputs and techniques that humans can test and utilise.
AI in relation to the betting markets is necessarily a military strategy.
DeepFck will create war as market makers with successful algorithms start to notice a fall-off in performativity.
DeepFck will also be using these disruptive nodes to play the markets to an underlying strategy,
AI moves so fast in well-correlated areas that it is difficult for others to build a coordinated response, allowing enhanced first mover advantage.
This is what Tony Bloom is doing so supremely well.
In conclusion.
AI can help with innovation but humans are a key partner.
AI is extremely useful for spotting deep patterns at speed and infinitely quicker than humans at this task.
But to remain cutting edge, the human-generated inputs are the fodder that produces the beautiful AI outputs.
Don't Fck With DeepFck.
© 2023 Football is Fixed
