The Wally Holds the Brolly But Who Holds the Betting Slips?

Yesterday Steve McClaren jumped before he was pushed at FC Twente Enschede.

In a meritocracy, this should represent the end of this man's career in football...
...but it won't because a slot will be found within the non-meritocratic monstrosity that is the FA.

Okay, some facts from the public domain - McClaren the manager has now failed in four of his last 5 posts at Twente, England, Nottingham Forest and Wolfsburg while McClaren the man has concurrently failed in two extra-marital affairs.
FC Twente are currently one of the least fit outfits in the Dutch Eredivisie - McClaren is responsible for maintaining these fitness levels if the club is to qualify for Champions League (for the title is already beyond them). He has failed.
Leading the table at the mid-season break, Twente now sit in 5th place.

The man who Brian Glanville charitably describes as "inept" also, at the very least, runs a loose operation.
Betting patterns on Twente Enschede matches are very revealing - in over 50% of Eredivisie matches this season the outcome is in the market pre-match.
Then there was the Europa Cup match between Bursaspor and FC Twente but that is another story for another day.

We do not know the source of this trading but we are aware of its existence.
Somebody very close to the club is betting on outcomes.
This money correlates with outcome over 90% of the time.

So surely the question has to be...
...how close to the centre of a club's operations does one have to be to achieve these corruptions?

And the answer to that question will evolve from the betting patterns at FC Twente in the period to the end of the season now that McClaren has done the walking-the-plank thing.

Forensic the Fuck-Ups in Football - How Fantastic!

What Is Joe Hart Up To?

How come Joe Hart has regressed from being the best goalkeeper in Europe to one of the most problematical in just one season?

                         Joe Hart apologises with eyes wide shut

If football is being corrupted by individuals on the field of play, two positions possess extraordinary powers to affect the match outcomes - goalkeepers and referees.
Goalkeepers might simply choose not to save any/many shots on target if they are corrupted...
...referees might selectively give penalties and sendings off if they are actively murky.

In this post, we assess goalkeepers across the four main European leagues (England, Italy, Spain and Germany) on two different analytical bases.
Firstly, we totalise the number of occasions that a particular keeper lets in every single shot on target in a game.
And, secondly, we itemise the number of instances where a goalkeeper concedes goals from two-thirds or more of the shots on target (ie 2/3, 3/4, 4/5, 4/6, 5/6, 5/7 etc).

Lets look at the latter database first.

Only five goalies out of 78 teams have underachieved the latter threshold on five or more occasions in season 2012/13 - Joe Hart, Tim Howard, Pepe Reina, Ali Al Habsi and Stefano Sorrentino.
Four of these keepers are from the Premier League and, coincidentally, all four play for clubs in the north west.

First, we intend to focus primarily on two of these goalkeepers - Joe Hart and Tim Howard.
We will also have a close look at Serie A.

Hart - both matches against Southampton, Liverpool and Norwich away and the home defeat to Manchester United where England's No 1 conceded goals on three out of 3 shots.
Five matches, 16 shots on target, 13 goals!!
A bin bag full of rubbish could achieve this level of performance!
Man City have lost eight points in these matches.
When put alongside the performance at Real Madrid in the Champions League and the bizarre occurrences in the friendly defeat to Sweden when representing England, one might choose to question the merits of Hart being in the Manchester City First XI never mind the national team.
In 270 minutes against the might of Southampton (twice) and Norwich, Hart saved 2 shots out of 10...
...in 540 minutes against the lesser lights of Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax Amsterdam, Hart saved 51 out of 62 shots.
If Mr Hart had conceded goals at the same rate as in these Premier League matches, City would have let in 50 goals in their 6 Champions League matches!
Perhaps Rickie Lambert and Robert Snodgrass are more frightening in front of goal than Ronaldo...
Hart is represented by Stellar agency.

Howard - has conceded goals from 2/3rds or more of shots on target on 6 occasions. In the matches against Newcastle, Wigan, Liverpool, Fulham, Reading and Villa, the Everton keeper has let in 13 goals from 18 shots on target!!
This has cost Everton 13 points which would put them in 2nd place in the table.
Jan Mucha is a far preferable option in net for the Toffees.
Howard is represented by Wasserman Media Group.

In Italy, three goalkeepers have reached the 67% threshold on four or more occasions - Gianluigi Buffon (Juventus), Antonio Mirante (Parma) and Sorrentino.
Buffon and Mirante are both represented by Assist agents.
Sorrentino is with the Pastorello agency.

Pastorello represent 4 out of the worst six goalies in Serie A when it comes to breaching the threshold while Assist represent the other two.
Indeed, Assist only have contracts with 17 current players...
...7 are goalkeepers!

Moving onto the occurrences of every shot ending up in the back of the net and just four goalies have achieved this underperformance on three or more instances in season 2012/13 - Buffon 4, Handanovic (Pastorello) 3, De Sanctis (Pastorello) 3 and a dodgy geyser in Spain.

Is it not slightly unusual that the goalkeepers of Juventus, Napoli and Inter (1st, 2nd and 4th in the table) are the only ones to perform so?
Is it not equally weird that all six of the worst underperformers on this measurement in Serie A are represented by just two firms of agents?
Or how about the information that Bundesliga goalkeepers underachieve at only 50% of the rate of the keepers in England, Italy and Spain. Are Bundesliga goalkeepers really twice as good?

There are two potential causes holistically of such data - either the goalies are indeed twice as good in Germany or there are corrupt practices at play in the other leagues.

The data is only a part of this proof.
The visuals are important too which is why we strongly assert that Messrs Hart, Howard and Buffon, in particular, should be explaining their alleged lack of professionalism. 

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013

The Matrix - UEFA Style

There was an interesting and simple pattern on the four Champions League games this midweek - I would say that the structure below is one which UEFA should not allow.

The four biggest leagues are England, Italy, Germany and Spain.

Celtic/Juventus - Spanish Ref mugs Celtic

Valencia/PSG - Italian Ref rescues Valencia with Ibrahimovic sending off

Madrid/United - German Ref

Donetsk/Dortmund - English Ref doesn't book one Dortmund player despite 15 fouls

Whether or not there were shenanigans this week, this matrix is primed for corruption and should not exist.
There is big money for reaching the latter stages of the Champions League and the major leagues must not be given the option to exercise a mutually beneficial carve-up.

Undiano Mallenco (the referee for Celtic v Juve) has refereed Italian clubs in Champions League on 7 occasions (5 wins and 2 draws... Inter 4 Bremen 0; Roma 3 Bayern 2; Fiorentina 3 Bayern 2; Bordeaux 1 Roma 3; Fiorentina 1 Bayern 1; Juve 2 Chelsea 2; Celtic 0 Juve 3).

Big games...

...big outcomes.

© Football is Fixed 2006-2013