"Its the biggest load of nonsense and its doing my head in" was one of Harry Redknapp's statements regarding his current legal situation. The "it" in question is the law and 'Arry evidently feels he exists above the confines of such restrictions.
And, its a family affair. In The Sun, ex-model son Mark squealed: "Someone is out to get dad". Meanwhile, Sky pundit Jamie and pop star wife Louise travelled to 'Arry's £10 million Poole house to be with mum Sandra while awaiting dad's release according to The Mirror.
Such heartwarming family background and mainstream media exposure for headlining defensive statements are not the norm in criminal investigations in this country. But, then again, 'Arry isn't yer average operator.
Brinkmanship is 'Arry's middle name. By constantly focusing on grey areas of dubious legality, he has built up a business empire way beyond that which ought to be the product of 25 years of salary as a football manager. Part of a property development company that, at the last count, possessed around 1000 houses (mainly in east and south-east London), 'Arry was also rumoured to be the manager that had placed £12 million of bets on Premiership games in one season with Gibraltar-based bookmaker Victor Chandler (that averages as over £30K on every single match in the season!). The whistleblower who made the allegation was immediately silenced by the High Court writ gained by Redknapp's protector, Max Clifford. Within the game, the media perception of 'Arry as a wheeler-dealer is one that is portrayed and spun as a lovable-rogue-who-knows-a-good-player-when-he-sees-one sort of reality. But the man has simply developed a very creative business model. Redknapp utilises his locus within the game to maximise his returns from the game. And, due to a prominent lack of prohibitory regulation, he has been able to get away with it. Until now?
Looking at some of 'Arry's earning options beyond his managerial salary, property concerns and betting activities based on inside information is a further indication of the complex matrix of characters whose names repeatedly crop up when one explores the murkier areas of the football sector. 'Arry prepares a weekly column for Rupert Murdoch's The Sun newspaper which will have absolutely no impact on that particular organ's reporting of the current fiasco. Obviously... Totally honest son Jamie is Sky Television's (and Murdoch's) disinformational talking head prior to Sky live matches. This man needs to attend finishing school as his body language and inability to control his pressure of speech reveals more than his paymasters would like - indeed, we have a private competition in the office on the first trader to spot where Jamie has placed his hard-earned dollar! 'Arry is also accommodated as a guest Sky expert whenever anything happens in the world of football whether he possesses the necessary knowledge or not. "So, 'Arry, Brazil have got the 2014 World Cup, what d'you think?". "The jobs a good'un at the end of the day, like. To be totally honest, you'd have to say they deserve it".
The other little earner for our multiple-money-maximising man is the transfer market. Investigative economists spot patterns and then attempt to jigsaw these nuggets of reality into a more complete holistic whole. Redknapp is involved in more transfer activity than any other manager and his signings are very often astute. Being an excellent reader of the game, the new players generally produce the desired effect on the field of play allowing 'Arry to achieve his limited footballing goals. Through the selective use of agents, it is widely accepted within the sport that Mr Redknapp is able to gain a slice of the transfer action and his performance on BBC's Panorama programme have hardly helped his legal counsel to be able to suggest otherwise. The evident side benefit of having a conveyor-belt transfer strategy is that the unscrupulous are able to repeatedly take their percentage on the majority of interactions.
What happens next? Well, firstly 'Arry is required to regain his poise. Yesterday, his home was searched in a dawn raid by the City of London police while, in total, 60 officers searched eight properties nationwide. The Pompey Five have been arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud and false accounting and they have been bailed until February. According to a Whitehall source, a number of soccer stars and agents have been identified as having offshore bank accounts which have not been properly declared. The source said: "We are likely to be talking about undisclosed millions".
Another source, close to the City of London inquiry, said: "It is much bigger than we thought". This reality does not quite correlate positively with 'Arry's over-confident assertion that: ""We all helped the police with their inquiries. But it doesn't directly concern me - it's other people involved... They have to arrest you to talk to you, for you to be in the police station. I think that's the end of it". In a neat spin on reality in The Sun, Redknapp distorts: "I have not been charged with anything and I have absolutely nothing to be concerned about". Apart from the arrest, that would be... Oh, and having the police trawl through all your business documentation, perhaps...?
That anything has happened at all is no thanks to the Premier League or the Football Association (FA). These arrests are separate to the Quest bungs whitewash and date back to a private tip-off last year rather than any proper policing by English football's regulatory bodies. Scudamore and Barwick couldn't detect fraud if it walked in and shook their hands - indeed, their business practices are seemingly based on such handshakes...
Of the others arrested, Mandaric and Storrie have been long term collaborators with 'Arry and the arms dealing Gaydamak's who back Pompey. Willie McKay is a bookmaker/ football agent/ horserace trainer who also goes back a fair few years with Redknapp. McKay spent several years trading out of Monaco, where he also assisted police inquiries into allegations of corruption in the game. The fifth member is Amdy Faye, a player who is currently on loan at Glasgow Rangers. Beyond these five, there are other people who should be sweating. Graeme Souness for one...
So, why have the Pompey Five been fingered? There is massive corruption within the game particularly in England. The links between betting markets and football outcomes are on a different strata of seriousness to the minor misdemeanours of our Five Heroes. In the same manner that the Premier League showed incredible blinkering to the wider reality when it kicked up its self-harming fuss relating to Carlos Tevez, the City of London police must be equally myopic if they believe that the Pompey Five are all that is wrong with the game.
Bitterly upset Mark Redknapp screached: "Why is this happening now when the England job is vacant? There was no need for them to come around like this". Yes folks, this story represents the latest in the media disinformational market known as 'The Next Permanent England Manager'. The bookmakers and their associative colleagues in the mainstream media love these markets as it allows the layers to pump money out of the masses by pressing the right neural spots. This mechanism whereby outright lies and rumours of lies are substituted for reality is a win-win situation for the perpetrators of the mass media scam. Short-selling the headline-grabbing names who have allegedly declared an interest in the England job while quietly trading the silent long-odds 'real' favourite is the template of choice. An example - Mourinho is as likely to be interested in the England job as Ian Paisley is in being pope. The same nonsense happened with Souness over the Wigan post and Paul Ince at Derby.
I digress.
"Oh No" said the female voice who answered the intercom at Rednapp's waterside mansion ('Arry was away with Rangers in Germany doing business). This crisis has the potential to be the biggest footballing own goal since George Graham. Yesterday's arrests relate to the earlier police raids at Pompey, Newcastle and Glasgow Rangers. The latter claim: "Rangers understand that a player was arrested at his home this morning on a matter totally unrelated to the business of Rangers Football Club". Really?
If a decision has been taken high up in the English establishment that this charade is to be something more than a final warning then the powers-that-be have chosen the tragicomedy comic book option. In the same manner that Iraqi enemies became Chemical Ali in an act of demonisation, the non-Sky media will have a field day with all those images of Redknapp and Mandaric, covering their mouths, mobiles in hand, match in progress, looking for all the world like an Eastend gangster and a Serbian mafiosi doing a bit of illicit business when, of course, nothing could be further from the truth.
There are fall guys and then there are fall guys. Unless football wishes for a crisis that will make calciopoli seem tame by comparison, this whole affair will need to be carefully and strategically spun out to a future irrelevance that will allow all parties to continue as before without any interruption to their business practices. If the authorities truly wish to bring down some aspect of the Redknapp empire then there are to be unintended consequences galore. We do not believe that it is in the interests of any of the key decision makers in this spectacular reality to proceed too determinedly.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Thursday, 29 November 2007
Wednesday, 28 November 2007
Learn To Burn
All management structures have their strengths and weaknesses. Any rating of an organisation must be founded on both the infrastructural robustness of the body and the interactions of the key individuals with their unique professional profiles. As it is in the wider world of business, so it is with football.
Certain entities yield greater creativity and innovation. When these beacons of professionalism underachieve, their normal overperformance demands that the error be noted. Goldman Sachs have recently struggled in the sub-prime quagmire and No 1's are not supposed to trade so poorly. And, last night, Arsène Wenger displayed a very rare lack of strategic thinking in playing half-a-team in what was actually a rather critical match in Arsenal's season.
Some of this might appear a bit trainspottery but Arsenal face a far more daunting new year because of last night's defeat and the very top managers and footballing associations generally plan strategically to avoid creating their own obstacles to success. Briefly in explanation of why Wenger got it so badly wrong. The 2nd Phase of the Champions League pitches the top-placed outfits against the runners-up with no team being able to play a side from the same country. By finishing in second place, Arsenal's opponents are likely to be chosen from the Porto, Real Madrid, Milan, Barcelona or Inter rather than the distinctly more preferable Rosenborg/Valencia/Schalke, Lazio/Olympiacos, Celtic/Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon/Rangers, Roma and PSV/Fenerbache. Wenger's justification was the blooding of youngsters but any such gains are minimal in comparison with the holistic mistake. This strategic mismanagement is unusual from the generally watertight Mr Wenger. But it will matter. Arsenal would have had the luxury of a five week break from major events following a very difficult start to the year when tough games combine with the Of Cup Nations African. Instead a probably very difficult Champions League encounter awaits. If the Gunners survive this major test, their quarter final ties will land slap bang in the middle of a domestic run yielding Chelsea (away), Bolton (away), Liverpool (home), Man Utd (away). It would seem distinctly unlikely that the Arsenal squad will be able to challenge on both fronts throughout the constancy of a high profile window that the second half of the season now represents. And this is before the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) have any say in the matter.
Of course, this is merely a black mark against an impeccable record of the ultimate strategic planner among Premiership managers. Compare with Sir Ferguson who has repeatedly failed to analyse tournament strategies to maximise the chances for Man Utd in the Champions League. Indeed, last night's Ronaldo injury time winner saved the Reds an awkward trip to Rome where a defeat would very likely have produced a similar dilemma to that now faced by Arsenal.
A big picture overview of a tournament and its rules should form a fundamental analytical base from which to create a team's strategy for a season both with respect to the competition in question and the impact on other tournaments. While England were drowning in quicksand of their own creation, Germany were deliberately underperforming (having qualified with three games to spare) so that they might achieve a suitable position in the seedings to optimise their chances of success next summer. Similarly, the Czech Republic landed the contrarian trade of the season to date when hammering the global gamble on Cyprus in the final round of Euro 2008 Qualifiers. Professional traders failed to read the rulebook and made the assumption that the Czechs had nothing to play for. In fact, they had everything to play for in order to place themselves in the seemingly preferable mighty second tier of seeds for the summer extravaganza. While celebrating their strategic foresight, the Czechs had a rude awakening. By kicking off three hours later than the Czechs, the Germans were able to perform a preference reversal and chose the third tier of seeds as the preferable strategic option for the Finals. The fact that the Germans maintained their options between Seeding Levels 2 and 3 to maximise their tilting of the summer playing field while the English sloshed around with suitcases of money forlornly looking for salvation via bribery is typical of the holistic strategic differences in planning between the two nations. Germany is run by clear-sighted professionals; England is run by the bookmakers, sychophants and the incompetent.
In that it relates to this post, the Euro 2008 Seedings Chart is below with FIFA rankings in brackets:
Seeding Level 1: Austria (91) Switzerland (44) Greece (11) Netherlands (9)
Seeding Level 2: Italy (3) Czech Republic (6) Croatia (10) Sweden (24)
Seeding Level 3: Germany (5) Spain (4) Portugal (8) Romania (13)
Seeding Level 4: Russia (22) Poland (23) Turkey (16) France (7)
The science behind achieving the correct management structure in football is highly developed with MBA-style strategic thinking allowing innovative teams like Sevilla to succeed by establishing a hierarchy and a culture that dovetails with the football club itself. The flattened hierarchy works as an interlinked entity and every cog in the machine is replaceable - do not expect any downturn in form following Juande Ramos chasing the money. The transfer strategy is shared between manager and sporting director as part of a complex interlocked business structure. Arsenal have a similarly enlightened approach although the model is skewed to take account of Wenger's exquisite transfer policies. Less sustainable structures are the ones at Milan or Chelsea where oligarchical ownership sees the proprietor decide transfer policy with imposition of his selections being placed on the hapless manager. Surely part of Ancelotti's glumness has to be related to spending so much of his life in close proximity to Berlusconi and Galliani. In the absence of a suitable death, these hyper-owners pursue a strategy as long as it suits their life strategy. Clubs like Milan are safe as the club are branded alongside Berlusconi's political machine while one would make the assessment that Thaksin Shinawatra's devotion to the blue half of Manchester is a short-medium term publicity tactic.
We have chosen to exemplify Sevilla and Arsenal and admonish Milan, Chelsea and Man City both because it feels like a good thing to be doing and because fans should celebrate the teams who are utilising highly creative business strategies to succeed in a psychopathic sectoral environment. Neither Arsenal nor Sevilla abuse the betting markets as part of some kind of off-ledger grey market slush fund. Their infrastructure is sustainable. Milan too will survive until Berlusconi's (hopefully imminent) demise but what happens then? As for Man City, no comment...
We should also celebrate Arsenal and Sevilla because they limit the games exposure to all sorts of dirty money and financial shenanigans that form the core financial strategies of the operators behind the other teams. A remarkable feature of footballing corruption is how frequently it directly or indirectly mirrors the corruption endemic in wider society. While the mainstream media debates the legality or otherwise of some secluded political donation, the real criminality isn't even addressed. No true bottom-up democracy should allow political donations from businesspeople (nor indeed anyone else). This distortion of our democratic right should be made illegal and there should be state funding of the political parties in Britain. The media does not wish for us to focus on such matters. But why should the rich be able to buy political influence? In Victorian times, the slaveowner globalisers simply ran their business empires from the luxury of one of parliament's rooms for ex-public schoolboy MP's. The same individuals today prefer for MP's to perform their deeds by proxy. And the political funding issue is only one of many that demonstrate the inappropriate linkages that exist between capital and government. Take the Carlyle Group. This private equity company is renowned for sailing as close to the winds of legality as possible in the imposition of its innovative business model. By co-opting serving and recently serving government heads and ministers onto their visible and not-so-visible "boards", the Carlyle Group is able to benefit from insider trading. By basing one's trading strategy on known near-future infrastructural readjustments, rule changes, governmental reviews etc etc, the private equity firm is buying into a sector or a company at a very cheap price as the wider financial public is not yet aware of the soon-to-be-launched financial or regulatory breakpoint. Of course, this is a standard masonic template that has been employed across time but the rewards for successful implementation of a corrupt strategy of this type are far greater today. Lets have a swift glance at QinetiQ, once the ministry of defence's research wing. After being forewarned of the impending sale, the Carlyle Group bought in and they and the civil service managers of QinetiQ achieved handsome returns - Carlyle's £42 million investment yielding £374 million in three years while the establishment suits saw a two hundredfold increase in the value of their investment. This example of insider trading is illegal but par for the course. Abramovich behaves to much the same hidden agenda in football - the parallels are obvious.
Markets warp systems. Improperly policed and regulated, the platforms allow the psychopathic abuser of markets to develop skewed incentives and cornered markets, corrupt competitive advantages and criminalised core competencies, high stakes and short-termist trading strategies masquerading as a sustainable system based on capital. Wherever the free market allows money to distort the social incentives within a political system, a psychopathic template will become the infrastructure of choice for the individuals who utilise the libertarian nature of such a system to exploit their way to the top of the tree. Whether we are focusing on betting markets, bungs and oligarchs with their suitcases of money in the football sector or insider trading, cartelisation or monopolisation in the financial markets, we are faced with the same scenario.
Money destroys aesthetic and financial value which are its prime reason for existence in the first place.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Certain entities yield greater creativity and innovation. When these beacons of professionalism underachieve, their normal overperformance demands that the error be noted. Goldman Sachs have recently struggled in the sub-prime quagmire and No 1's are not supposed to trade so poorly. And, last night, Arsène Wenger displayed a very rare lack of strategic thinking in playing half-a-team in what was actually a rather critical match in Arsenal's season.
Some of this might appear a bit trainspottery but Arsenal face a far more daunting new year because of last night's defeat and the very top managers and footballing associations generally plan strategically to avoid creating their own obstacles to success. Briefly in explanation of why Wenger got it so badly wrong. The 2nd Phase of the Champions League pitches the top-placed outfits against the runners-up with no team being able to play a side from the same country. By finishing in second place, Arsenal's opponents are likely to be chosen from the Porto, Real Madrid, Milan, Barcelona or Inter rather than the distinctly more preferable Rosenborg/Valencia/Schalke, Lazio/Olympiacos, Celtic/Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon/Rangers, Roma and PSV/Fenerbache. Wenger's justification was the blooding of youngsters but any such gains are minimal in comparison with the holistic mistake. This strategic mismanagement is unusual from the generally watertight Mr Wenger. But it will matter. Arsenal would have had the luxury of a five week break from major events following a very difficult start to the year when tough games combine with the Of Cup Nations African. Instead a probably very difficult Champions League encounter awaits. If the Gunners survive this major test, their quarter final ties will land slap bang in the middle of a domestic run yielding Chelsea (away), Bolton (away), Liverpool (home), Man Utd (away). It would seem distinctly unlikely that the Arsenal squad will be able to challenge on both fronts throughout the constancy of a high profile window that the second half of the season now represents. And this is before the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) have any say in the matter.
Of course, this is merely a black mark against an impeccable record of the ultimate strategic planner among Premiership managers. Compare with Sir Ferguson who has repeatedly failed to analyse tournament strategies to maximise the chances for Man Utd in the Champions League. Indeed, last night's Ronaldo injury time winner saved the Reds an awkward trip to Rome where a defeat would very likely have produced a similar dilemma to that now faced by Arsenal.
A big picture overview of a tournament and its rules should form a fundamental analytical base from which to create a team's strategy for a season both with respect to the competition in question and the impact on other tournaments. While England were drowning in quicksand of their own creation, Germany were deliberately underperforming (having qualified with three games to spare) so that they might achieve a suitable position in the seedings to optimise their chances of success next summer. Similarly, the Czech Republic landed the contrarian trade of the season to date when hammering the global gamble on Cyprus in the final round of Euro 2008 Qualifiers. Professional traders failed to read the rulebook and made the assumption that the Czechs had nothing to play for. In fact, they had everything to play for in order to place themselves in the seemingly preferable mighty second tier of seeds for the summer extravaganza. While celebrating their strategic foresight, the Czechs had a rude awakening. By kicking off three hours later than the Czechs, the Germans were able to perform a preference reversal and chose the third tier of seeds as the preferable strategic option for the Finals. The fact that the Germans maintained their options between Seeding Levels 2 and 3 to maximise their tilting of the summer playing field while the English sloshed around with suitcases of money forlornly looking for salvation via bribery is typical of the holistic strategic differences in planning between the two nations. Germany is run by clear-sighted professionals; England is run by the bookmakers, sychophants and the incompetent.
In that it relates to this post, the Euro 2008 Seedings Chart is below with FIFA rankings in brackets:
Seeding Level 1: Austria (91) Switzerland (44) Greece (11) Netherlands (9)
Seeding Level 2: Italy (3) Czech Republic (6) Croatia (10) Sweden (24)
Seeding Level 3: Germany (5) Spain (4) Portugal (8) Romania (13)
Seeding Level 4: Russia (22) Poland (23) Turkey (16) France (7)
The science behind achieving the correct management structure in football is highly developed with MBA-style strategic thinking allowing innovative teams like Sevilla to succeed by establishing a hierarchy and a culture that dovetails with the football club itself. The flattened hierarchy works as an interlinked entity and every cog in the machine is replaceable - do not expect any downturn in form following Juande Ramos chasing the money. The transfer strategy is shared between manager and sporting director as part of a complex interlocked business structure. Arsenal have a similarly enlightened approach although the model is skewed to take account of Wenger's exquisite transfer policies. Less sustainable structures are the ones at Milan or Chelsea where oligarchical ownership sees the proprietor decide transfer policy with imposition of his selections being placed on the hapless manager. Surely part of Ancelotti's glumness has to be related to spending so much of his life in close proximity to Berlusconi and Galliani. In the absence of a suitable death, these hyper-owners pursue a strategy as long as it suits their life strategy. Clubs like Milan are safe as the club are branded alongside Berlusconi's political machine while one would make the assessment that Thaksin Shinawatra's devotion to the blue half of Manchester is a short-medium term publicity tactic.
We have chosen to exemplify Sevilla and Arsenal and admonish Milan, Chelsea and Man City both because it feels like a good thing to be doing and because fans should celebrate the teams who are utilising highly creative business strategies to succeed in a psychopathic sectoral environment. Neither Arsenal nor Sevilla abuse the betting markets as part of some kind of off-ledger grey market slush fund. Their infrastructure is sustainable. Milan too will survive until Berlusconi's (hopefully imminent) demise but what happens then? As for Man City, no comment...
We should also celebrate Arsenal and Sevilla because they limit the games exposure to all sorts of dirty money and financial shenanigans that form the core financial strategies of the operators behind the other teams. A remarkable feature of footballing corruption is how frequently it directly or indirectly mirrors the corruption endemic in wider society. While the mainstream media debates the legality or otherwise of some secluded political donation, the real criminality isn't even addressed. No true bottom-up democracy should allow political donations from businesspeople (nor indeed anyone else). This distortion of our democratic right should be made illegal and there should be state funding of the political parties in Britain. The media does not wish for us to focus on such matters. But why should the rich be able to buy political influence? In Victorian times, the slaveowner globalisers simply ran their business empires from the luxury of one of parliament's rooms for ex-public schoolboy MP's. The same individuals today prefer for MP's to perform their deeds by proxy. And the political funding issue is only one of many that demonstrate the inappropriate linkages that exist between capital and government. Take the Carlyle Group. This private equity company is renowned for sailing as close to the winds of legality as possible in the imposition of its innovative business model. By co-opting serving and recently serving government heads and ministers onto their visible and not-so-visible "boards", the Carlyle Group is able to benefit from insider trading. By basing one's trading strategy on known near-future infrastructural readjustments, rule changes, governmental reviews etc etc, the private equity firm is buying into a sector or a company at a very cheap price as the wider financial public is not yet aware of the soon-to-be-launched financial or regulatory breakpoint. Of course, this is a standard masonic template that has been employed across time but the rewards for successful implementation of a corrupt strategy of this type are far greater today. Lets have a swift glance at QinetiQ, once the ministry of defence's research wing. After being forewarned of the impending sale, the Carlyle Group bought in and they and the civil service managers of QinetiQ achieved handsome returns - Carlyle's £42 million investment yielding £374 million in three years while the establishment suits saw a two hundredfold increase in the value of their investment. This example of insider trading is illegal but par for the course. Abramovich behaves to much the same hidden agenda in football - the parallels are obvious.
Markets warp systems. Improperly policed and regulated, the platforms allow the psychopathic abuser of markets to develop skewed incentives and cornered markets, corrupt competitive advantages and criminalised core competencies, high stakes and short-termist trading strategies masquerading as a sustainable system based on capital. Wherever the free market allows money to distort the social incentives within a political system, a psychopathic template will become the infrastructure of choice for the individuals who utilise the libertarian nature of such a system to exploit their way to the top of the tree. Whether we are focusing on betting markets, bungs and oligarchs with their suitcases of money in the football sector or insider trading, cartelisation or monopolisation in the financial markets, we are faced with the same scenario.
Money destroys aesthetic and financial value which are its prime reason for existence in the first place.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Monday, 26 November 2007
Dirty Dozen Referees Revealed By Bum Ref Index
Last season, Mark Clattenburg was the best referee as measured by Football Is Fixed's Bum Ref Index. In an underachievement of some magnitude, the man is this season rated the most incompetent of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) referees.
The Economist's Big Mac Index, on which our slightly subjective league table is based, utilises the econo-myth of purchasing power parity to compare currencies while we compare referees negative impact on the games in which they officiate using our privileged position as market analysts. We also assess the infrastructural biases of which, unfortunately, there are many. It is these biases which form the edifice that is primed for externalised corruption. As we have said before, addressing these issues of actual and potential corruption would significantly clean up the English game.
The Bum Ref Index (to November 26th 2007) is listed below. Stroud, Mason and Probert have only officiated ten games between them and are omitted from the table. Rennie and Knight are yet to feature at all.
1. Walton 2.91
2. Dowd 2.99
3. Halsey 3.00
4. Marriner 3.03
5. Atkinson 3.17
6. Wiley 3.43
7. Dean 4.06
8. Bennett 4.11
9. Foy 4.15
10. Webb 4.25
11. Tanner 4.48
12. Styles 4.54
13. Riley 4.79
14. Clattenburg 5.24
Clattenburg has been dismal all season although his relegation position is weighted for his abysmal Merseyside derby capers. There are a range of reasons why a previously kosher official becomes problematical - from the personal and psychological to the corrupt - and a period of convalescence away from the game would appear in order for referees who markedly deteriorate in performance for whatever reason. As well as allowing a referee to re-energise for what, after all, is a stressful (if highly rewarding) career choice, it would also undermine any corruption by using investigative pattern recognition to expose the cheats. The quality of officiating would be incrementally improved across the board.
Interestingly, all of the PGMOB officials who are also on UEFA's roster are judged as being the weaker officials - Clattenburg, Riley, Styles, Webb, Bennett, Dean and Atkinson occupying 7 of the bottom 10 positions.
Of the top European leagues, the only one which is able to compete with England in terms of corruption is Italy's Serie A. In the light of the recent and, inevitably, ongoing referee scandals, the FIGC use a roster of 30 officials for the league. Only one referee has officiated as many as 7 games in total in Italy. In the Premiership, Riley and Webb have each refereed 7 LIVE games alone and twelve of the seventeen PGMOB referees have controlled seven or more Premiership matches. The mathematics of this core group of officials makes disturbing reading. 116 out of 137 Premiership games (85%) have featured this dirty dozen. When one looks solely at the high betting turnover live games, the situation is even more dire. The listing below represents the number of times each official has been selected for Sky or Setanta events this season:
7 - Webb, Riley.
6 -
5 - Styles, Dean, Atkinson, Halsey.
4 - Bennett, Clattenburg.
3 - Wiley, Tanner.
2 - Foy, Walton.
So the dirty dozen have not only officiated at 85% of our Premiership theatrical shows but they have also blown the whistle at 52 out of 54 live matches - a striking 96%.
A couple of years ago, there was a rumour doing the rounds of the trading rooms to the effect that the PGMOB and their paymasters were seeking to reduce the core grouping of Premiership officials to just ten. People mocked. We blogged that a minimum grouping of fourteen would be required to take account of injuries, "mock" suspensions and fourth official necessities but that an absolute core of twelve would be required. Voila!
There is a general consensus of opinion among football fans and professionals that the quality of refereeing has reached a new nadir this season - think Styles and Liverpool/Chelsea; Dean and Man Utd/Chelsea; Clattenburg and Everton/Liverpool; Riley and West Ham/Tottenham. The only argument in favour of establishing a small core group is that somehow these officials represent the pinnacle of their profession. Nonsense. Any cursory glance at a random lower league match will expose more skilled practitioners than those who top the PGMOB roster. The demotion of English officials within the UEFA hierarchy is a clear external benchmark of this skills shortage. But, of course, the dirty dozen were not selected solely on their abilities to referee a football match. No, no, no... Brave meritocracy has packed her bags and run...
The justification for such a small cell of referees does not exist. By limiting the control of the Premiership matches and their highly liquid parallel global betting markets to such a small party of people, the PGMOB has developed a structure seemingly made for infiltration, coercion and corruption. As there is no validity to the scenario as it currently stands, we need to be moving towards the only two real democratising forces as soon as possible.
WE WANT TWO REFEREES ON OPEN MICROPHONE PLUS TWO ASSISTANTS
WE WANT THE FIFTH OFFICIAL TO USE VIDEO REPLAYS FOR PENALTY, SENDING OFF, GOAL-LINE AND OFFSIDE DECISIONS
Or we can watch as our beautiful sport is dragged repeatedly through the filth of corruption in front of our disbelieving eyes.
The only people supportive of the current state of inertia are those who utilise their power bases to influence the outcomes of football matches for whatever proprietary reasons.
Yesterday's West Ham United versus Tottenham game was everything that is bad about the English game. In the old days, this would have been a London derby and words like passion and pride and bragging rights would have been the motivational aspects of the match. And yesterday? Dream on. The biggest gamble of the weekend was on Ramos and his Spurs but Riley's presence as referee made the game non-tradeable either way. Over 30% of Sky's live games have been refereed by Riley or Webb this season and yesterday was Riley's sixth Sky event. His input is problematical without fail. A half decent official would have given Spurs three penalties and sent off Robert Green for his foul on Keane. Mr Riley saw fit to wait for the choreographed Lucas Neill special in injury time allowing pantomime baddie Jermaine Defoe to perform the highly seasonal under-heroics from the penalty spot. Furthermore, Riley showed his randomised colours in his general officiating - West Ham received 3 yellow cards for 33 fouls while Spurs received 4 yellow cards for 5 fouls!
Mike Riley is the one Englishman, apparently, who will be travelling to the Euro 2008 Finals in his capacity as our, allegedly, best official.
Best at what, though...?
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
The Economist's Big Mac Index, on which our slightly subjective league table is based, utilises the econo-myth of purchasing power parity to compare currencies while we compare referees negative impact on the games in which they officiate using our privileged position as market analysts. We also assess the infrastructural biases of which, unfortunately, there are many. It is these biases which form the edifice that is primed for externalised corruption. As we have said before, addressing these issues of actual and potential corruption would significantly clean up the English game.
The Bum Ref Index (to November 26th 2007) is listed below. Stroud, Mason and Probert have only officiated ten games between them and are omitted from the table. Rennie and Knight are yet to feature at all.
1. Walton 2.91
2. Dowd 2.99
3. Halsey 3.00
4. Marriner 3.03
5. Atkinson 3.17
6. Wiley 3.43
7. Dean 4.06
8. Bennett 4.11
9. Foy 4.15
10. Webb 4.25
11. Tanner 4.48
12. Styles 4.54
13. Riley 4.79
14. Clattenburg 5.24
Clattenburg has been dismal all season although his relegation position is weighted for his abysmal Merseyside derby capers. There are a range of reasons why a previously kosher official becomes problematical - from the personal and psychological to the corrupt - and a period of convalescence away from the game would appear in order for referees who markedly deteriorate in performance for whatever reason. As well as allowing a referee to re-energise for what, after all, is a stressful (if highly rewarding) career choice, it would also undermine any corruption by using investigative pattern recognition to expose the cheats. The quality of officiating would be incrementally improved across the board.
Interestingly, all of the PGMOB officials who are also on UEFA's roster are judged as being the weaker officials - Clattenburg, Riley, Styles, Webb, Bennett, Dean and Atkinson occupying 7 of the bottom 10 positions.
Of the top European leagues, the only one which is able to compete with England in terms of corruption is Italy's Serie A. In the light of the recent and, inevitably, ongoing referee scandals, the FIGC use a roster of 30 officials for the league. Only one referee has officiated as many as 7 games in total in Italy. In the Premiership, Riley and Webb have each refereed 7 LIVE games alone and twelve of the seventeen PGMOB referees have controlled seven or more Premiership matches. The mathematics of this core group of officials makes disturbing reading. 116 out of 137 Premiership games (85%) have featured this dirty dozen. When one looks solely at the high betting turnover live games, the situation is even more dire. The listing below represents the number of times each official has been selected for Sky or Setanta events this season:
7 - Webb, Riley.
6 -
5 - Styles, Dean, Atkinson, Halsey.
4 - Bennett, Clattenburg.
3 - Wiley, Tanner.
2 - Foy, Walton.
So the dirty dozen have not only officiated at 85% of our Premiership theatrical shows but they have also blown the whistle at 52 out of 54 live matches - a striking 96%.
A couple of years ago, there was a rumour doing the rounds of the trading rooms to the effect that the PGMOB and their paymasters were seeking to reduce the core grouping of Premiership officials to just ten. People mocked. We blogged that a minimum grouping of fourteen would be required to take account of injuries, "mock" suspensions and fourth official necessities but that an absolute core of twelve would be required. Voila!
There is a general consensus of opinion among football fans and professionals that the quality of refereeing has reached a new nadir this season - think Styles and Liverpool/Chelsea; Dean and Man Utd/Chelsea; Clattenburg and Everton/Liverpool; Riley and West Ham/Tottenham. The only argument in favour of establishing a small core group is that somehow these officials represent the pinnacle of their profession. Nonsense. Any cursory glance at a random lower league match will expose more skilled practitioners than those who top the PGMOB roster. The demotion of English officials within the UEFA hierarchy is a clear external benchmark of this skills shortage. But, of course, the dirty dozen were not selected solely on their abilities to referee a football match. No, no, no... Brave meritocracy has packed her bags and run...
The justification for such a small cell of referees does not exist. By limiting the control of the Premiership matches and their highly liquid parallel global betting markets to such a small party of people, the PGMOB has developed a structure seemingly made for infiltration, coercion and corruption. As there is no validity to the scenario as it currently stands, we need to be moving towards the only two real democratising forces as soon as possible.
WE WANT TWO REFEREES ON OPEN MICROPHONE PLUS TWO ASSISTANTS
WE WANT THE FIFTH OFFICIAL TO USE VIDEO REPLAYS FOR PENALTY, SENDING OFF, GOAL-LINE AND OFFSIDE DECISIONS
Or we can watch as our beautiful sport is dragged repeatedly through the filth of corruption in front of our disbelieving eyes.
The only people supportive of the current state of inertia are those who utilise their power bases to influence the outcomes of football matches for whatever proprietary reasons.
Yesterday's West Ham United versus Tottenham game was everything that is bad about the English game. In the old days, this would have been a London derby and words like passion and pride and bragging rights would have been the motivational aspects of the match. And yesterday? Dream on. The biggest gamble of the weekend was on Ramos and his Spurs but Riley's presence as referee made the game non-tradeable either way. Over 30% of Sky's live games have been refereed by Riley or Webb this season and yesterday was Riley's sixth Sky event. His input is problematical without fail. A half decent official would have given Spurs three penalties and sent off Robert Green for his foul on Keane. Mr Riley saw fit to wait for the choreographed Lucas Neill special in injury time allowing pantomime baddie Jermaine Defoe to perform the highly seasonal under-heroics from the penalty spot. Furthermore, Riley showed his randomised colours in his general officiating - West Ham received 3 yellow cards for 33 fouls while Spurs received 4 yellow cards for 5 fouls!
Mike Riley is the one Englishman, apparently, who will be travelling to the Euro 2008 Finals in his capacity as our, allegedly, best official.
Best at what, though...?
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Thursday, 22 November 2007
Treble Bluff
The probability that the three concluding crucial matches in Euro 2008 Qualifying Group E would go the way of Israel, Macedonia and Croatia is an occurrence that would be expected only once in every two millennia (544/1 was the accumulator price). If rarity is indicative of beauty and price then last night's encounter was a many splendored thing.
The English footballing establishment was outplayed by Roman and his Russians at Platini's Poker Parlour - Roman bought the first hand but was outbid in the second before using his endless supply of chips to motivate the Croats in the final hand.
In the words of Spike Milligan: "What are we going to do now?" Well, we're going to list the reasons why this national disaster (sic) came to reality. In order of negative impact, we give you the following cast who won't be missed when the English hierarchy is purged.
* The Bookmakers - It was a déjà vu all over again repetition thing here. Back in the good old bad old days, the bookmakers were instrumental in getting slippery Kevin Keegan into the England job prior to being equally instrumental in his demise. The same may now be said of Steve McClaren. The only difference between the two instances is that Keegan undertook the bookies bidding directly while McClaren was undermined by his players. The layers have foregone millions on the non-qualification of this sceptred isle, the fifty grand Mercedes being transported to Palestine being only the thin end of a negative equity edge. The failure was indicative of the short-termism of the English market makers. To guarantee that England would progress, the bookies were required to not only buy off the Israel team but also to demonstrate equivalence in their dealings with the Croats. By allowing Abramovich financial control of last night's event, the bookmakers markedly increased the likelihood of a pear-shaped conclusion. Skinflints. The nonsense that Croatia had nothing to play for was evidently fallacious after only five minutes and the Croat's goals and post-match celebrations were suggestive of external rewards - effectively, the short term financial gains of doing an oligarch's bidding trumped the deferred gratification represented by a Euro 2008 Final's betting bonanza. British bookmakers and a creative long-term strategy rarely occupy the same quantum state but last night represented a new nadir for the bosons in their trading rooms.
* The FA - Incompetent or what? To improve the chances of a place in the finals, the FA selected millstone over motivation. Can you imagine Germany playing a friendly away from home a few days before such a vital game? Apart from short term financial gain, what was the purpose in allowing a US Football event to take place in the food mall destroying the hallowed (?) turf in the process? Why were the Croatian fans given the benefit of a position behind one of the goals? Providing visiting supporters with this territorial edge is not something that would be found in the strategies of Clausewitz! The intellect behind the FA was clearly portrayed pre-match when, at a dinner for the great and the good (and a representative of the monarchy), chairman Geoff Thompson referred to our great leader as "Steve McQueen". The dole is too good for some people. It is no surprise that the powers ruining the English game put accounting prerogatives before anything and everything else but the non-qualification was a theatrical comedy of financial errors. The image of Prince Harry sitting next to Brian Barwick at 2-3 down is the one that I will file away for future chuckling purposes...
* The Mainstream Media - Too much focus; too much pressure; too many column inches devoted to little-Englander xenophobia; too many individuals preparing articles at the bookmaker's bidding. Ladbrokes-retained Ian Wright was the icing on this particular disinformational cake when, in BBC's pre-match preamble, he berated the other talking heads for being in "negative land" and then spouted the Magic Sign's line on the inevitability of an English victory when, in fact, all the English layers were on the Draw.
* Steve McClaren and the England Team - McClaren was out of his depth from Day One and, as such, may only be apportioned a percentage of the blame. Having said that, selecting the usually excellent Carson for such a key game, retaining bookies pal Fat Frank in midfield and using the bookies other mate Michael Owen to achieve no shots at all against the might of Estonia and Russia was mismanagement par excellence. Poor little Michael was so traumatised by having a shot on target in Vienna on Friday night that he limped off in a self-harming style. If this were horseracing (and it pretty well much is), Owen would be carpeted for being a non-trier. It did not help that McClaren and Venables had a lover's tiff prior to last night's match and, as I write, McClaren will be receiving his P45 and financial pay-off from the FA. If Max Clifford is looking for somewhere to place his incompetent client, he's missed the Preston job (which is a damn shame from a Blackpool perspective). For the squad en masse to fail despite the advantages bestowed to the home of football is a disgrace. Even with biased support from the Swedish officials (if penalties were always given for the likes of Simunic's foul, we would be in rugby score territory here), the millionaires manifestly muffed it - performance related pay might help...
* The England "Fans" - I turned over from the Spain v Northern Ireland game just in time to hear the chorus of boos and whistles that greeted the singing of the Croatian national anthem - the fact that the opera singer was Black making the display particularly unpleasant. Now how stupid is that? Even without financial inducements, a proud nation like Croatia was going to be fired up by this welcome. The constant drone of the nationalistic song band was thankfully totally drowned out by the singing of the Croatian supporters - being outsung at home is the football supporter's equivalent of discovering squatter's rights being claimed in your sitting room. The bipolar nature of the typical Engerlander was demonstrated throughout last night's show with cyclical booing and encouragement being the Anglo-audio-backdrop. This type of input is totally non-constructive - the twelfth man becoming a liability, if you like. The xenophobes should check out the crowd support for Scotland or Northern Ireland (both of whom merited a final's place more than England) when they next wish to visit the Wembley mega-restaurant.
So, what are we left with in the aftermath? Scapegoats will be chosen and adjustments made but the rotten edifice of the footballing and gambling sectors in England will remain largely untouched. McClaren is the patsy. The great escapes of which you sing need meticulous planning and a lack of attention to detail appears to be a core competency in the corridors of power.
England's demise neatly coincided with the latest strong indication that a serious global recession is on the way with the FTSE losing 2.5% of its value yesterday with, more importantly, no rebound of consequence so far this morning. It was also the day that Peter Reid turned down the post of manager of the Iranian national team thereby eliminating in one foul swoop the only justification for potentially invading the place. The bookies would, no doubt, like Reid to become the English boss but we have sidestepped this with our support last month for the 100/1 available on Alan Shearer - his price is now around 10's and the value is no more.
Be grateful for small mercies. England finished above Israel (on their head-to-head record) and, assuming that this little island is given the opportunity to host the 2018 World Cup, qualification will be assured in 11 years time. And Russia's presence in Austria/Switzerland will at least allow Roman to meet up with his wealth manager and to check up on the interest payments on his Swiss bank accounts.
I wish I knew the Croat for "You're Not Singing Anymore...".
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
The English footballing establishment was outplayed by Roman and his Russians at Platini's Poker Parlour - Roman bought the first hand but was outbid in the second before using his endless supply of chips to motivate the Croats in the final hand.
In the words of Spike Milligan: "What are we going to do now?" Well, we're going to list the reasons why this national disaster (sic) came to reality. In order of negative impact, we give you the following cast who won't be missed when the English hierarchy is purged.
* The Bookmakers - It was a déjà vu all over again repetition thing here. Back in the good old bad old days, the bookmakers were instrumental in getting slippery Kevin Keegan into the England job prior to being equally instrumental in his demise. The same may now be said of Steve McClaren. The only difference between the two instances is that Keegan undertook the bookies bidding directly while McClaren was undermined by his players. The layers have foregone millions on the non-qualification of this sceptred isle, the fifty grand Mercedes being transported to Palestine being only the thin end of a negative equity edge. The failure was indicative of the short-termism of the English market makers. To guarantee that England would progress, the bookies were required to not only buy off the Israel team but also to demonstrate equivalence in their dealings with the Croats. By allowing Abramovich financial control of last night's event, the bookmakers markedly increased the likelihood of a pear-shaped conclusion. Skinflints. The nonsense that Croatia had nothing to play for was evidently fallacious after only five minutes and the Croat's goals and post-match celebrations were suggestive of external rewards - effectively, the short term financial gains of doing an oligarch's bidding trumped the deferred gratification represented by a Euro 2008 Final's betting bonanza. British bookmakers and a creative long-term strategy rarely occupy the same quantum state but last night represented a new nadir for the bosons in their trading rooms.
* The FA - Incompetent or what? To improve the chances of a place in the finals, the FA selected millstone over motivation. Can you imagine Germany playing a friendly away from home a few days before such a vital game? Apart from short term financial gain, what was the purpose in allowing a US Football event to take place in the food mall destroying the hallowed (?) turf in the process? Why were the Croatian fans given the benefit of a position behind one of the goals? Providing visiting supporters with this territorial edge is not something that would be found in the strategies of Clausewitz! The intellect behind the FA was clearly portrayed pre-match when, at a dinner for the great and the good (and a representative of the monarchy), chairman Geoff Thompson referred to our great leader as "Steve McQueen". The dole is too good for some people. It is no surprise that the powers ruining the English game put accounting prerogatives before anything and everything else but the non-qualification was a theatrical comedy of financial errors. The image of Prince Harry sitting next to Brian Barwick at 2-3 down is the one that I will file away for future chuckling purposes...
* The Mainstream Media - Too much focus; too much pressure; too many column inches devoted to little-Englander xenophobia; too many individuals preparing articles at the bookmaker's bidding. Ladbrokes-retained Ian Wright was the icing on this particular disinformational cake when, in BBC's pre-match preamble, he berated the other talking heads for being in "negative land" and then spouted the Magic Sign's line on the inevitability of an English victory when, in fact, all the English layers were on the Draw.
* Steve McClaren and the England Team - McClaren was out of his depth from Day One and, as such, may only be apportioned a percentage of the blame. Having said that, selecting the usually excellent Carson for such a key game, retaining bookies pal Fat Frank in midfield and using the bookies other mate Michael Owen to achieve no shots at all against the might of Estonia and Russia was mismanagement par excellence. Poor little Michael was so traumatised by having a shot on target in Vienna on Friday night that he limped off in a self-harming style. If this were horseracing (and it pretty well much is), Owen would be carpeted for being a non-trier. It did not help that McClaren and Venables had a lover's tiff prior to last night's match and, as I write, McClaren will be receiving his P45 and financial pay-off from the FA. If Max Clifford is looking for somewhere to place his incompetent client, he's missed the Preston job (which is a damn shame from a Blackpool perspective). For the squad en masse to fail despite the advantages bestowed to the home of football is a disgrace. Even with biased support from the Swedish officials (if penalties were always given for the likes of Simunic's foul, we would be in rugby score territory here), the millionaires manifestly muffed it - performance related pay might help...
* The England "Fans" - I turned over from the Spain v Northern Ireland game just in time to hear the chorus of boos and whistles that greeted the singing of the Croatian national anthem - the fact that the opera singer was Black making the display particularly unpleasant. Now how stupid is that? Even without financial inducements, a proud nation like Croatia was going to be fired up by this welcome. The constant drone of the nationalistic song band was thankfully totally drowned out by the singing of the Croatian supporters - being outsung at home is the football supporter's equivalent of discovering squatter's rights being claimed in your sitting room. The bipolar nature of the typical Engerlander was demonstrated throughout last night's show with cyclical booing and encouragement being the Anglo-audio-backdrop. This type of input is totally non-constructive - the twelfth man becoming a liability, if you like. The xenophobes should check out the crowd support for Scotland or Northern Ireland (both of whom merited a final's place more than England) when they next wish to visit the Wembley mega-restaurant.
So, what are we left with in the aftermath? Scapegoats will be chosen and adjustments made but the rotten edifice of the footballing and gambling sectors in England will remain largely untouched. McClaren is the patsy. The great escapes of which you sing need meticulous planning and a lack of attention to detail appears to be a core competency in the corridors of power.
England's demise neatly coincided with the latest strong indication that a serious global recession is on the way with the FTSE losing 2.5% of its value yesterday with, more importantly, no rebound of consequence so far this morning. It was also the day that Peter Reid turned down the post of manager of the Iranian national team thereby eliminating in one foul swoop the only justification for potentially invading the place. The bookies would, no doubt, like Reid to become the English boss but we have sidestepped this with our support last month for the 100/1 available on Alan Shearer - his price is now around 10's and the value is no more.
Be grateful for small mercies. England finished above Israel (on their head-to-head record) and, assuming that this little island is given the opportunity to host the 2018 World Cup, qualification will be assured in 11 years time. And Russia's presence in Austria/Switzerland will at least allow Roman to meet up with his wealth manager and to check up on the interest payments on his Swiss bank accounts.
I wish I knew the Croat for "You're Not Singing Anymore...".
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Wednesday, 21 November 2007
FA Claims Mike Newell Is An Al-Qaeda Operative!
Events over the last seven days encapsulate in microcosm the rampant corruption and associated loss of any vestige of integrity in the professional football world. Throughout this week, virtually all of the major areas of concern within the game have enjoyed their window in the public spotlight. From oligarchs to the Thai elections, from Quest and the bungs inquiry to heavily corrupted global spectacular matches, the state of the game has been laid bare for all to see.
Very few matches in the highly corrupted Euro 2008 Group E have been legitimate events. We brought this to the attention of readers last season and the situation has deteriorated in the intervening period to the extent that the global audience was treated to two matches (Russia/England and Israel/Russia) that were heavily externalised matches. The outcomes of both these matches were determined by illicit money and, as in the norm on such occasions, the visuals patently demonstrated the underworld dynamics.
But, hidden behind the media glare of the problematic nature of English qualification, there have been other machinations indicative of the state of the game.
We have posted on numerous previous occasions that the Quest Inquiry into bungs in football was a whitewash. From the perspective of the regulatory power bodies overseeing English football, the whole charade has been a nightmare. Conflicting rules and regulations have been revealed; the selective imposition of punishment has been exposed as a standard practice; the iceberg of footballing corruption has been lifted out of the water to a degree. It was evident months ago that there was no feasible and logical route for the FA and the Premier League to take that might validate their status as suitable guardians of the English game and so they resorted to spin, half-truths, rumour and intrigue. The final piece of this spectacular spun reality occurred at the end of last week when it was quietly announced that a few agents associated with Mike Newell and Luton Town FC had forgotten to sign a piece of paper and that, apart from this, everything was fine and dandy in Scudamore's and Barwick's worlds.
New Labour have perfected the art of burying away bad news and the FA's Blairite contortions were chosen for public release on the day prior to the critical Euro 2008Qualifiers and on the morning of England's game in Vienna. Only xmas day would have been more opaque...
And what is the result of PC Plod's sortie through the grey underground world of football? The corruption still exists in suspended animation which undermines any suspension in our disbelief at the attempts to clean up the game.
Since Mike Newell first went public and the BBC Panorama programme exposed certain operators within the game, there has been a momentum to peripheralise any real impact of the inquiry. The outcomes to date are:
i) Mike Newell was sacked as Luton Town manager as we predicted.
ii) Luton Town were relegated (as we also predicted).
iii) The Quest inquiry is now targeting six agents involved with transfers to and from Luton.
Allardyce, Bond, Arneson, Redknapp, Souness, Zahavi, McKay, Silkman etc do not appear to have had their strategies markedly disrupted by the inquiry. The excitement created by the City of London police raids at Newcastle, Portsmouth and Glasgow Rangers together with the arrest of a still-unnamed 61 year old (he may even be 62 by now) for money laundering have been carefully secreted in the unsolved cases file. None of the threats of legal action from any of those individuals originally fingered by BBC have come to fruition. But, apparently, we are expected to believe that all is well with the game because anybody related to Luton is getting hammered. Without going in to fulsome details - see David Conn's excellent post in today's Guardian for that (http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2007/11/21/the_book_thrown_at_luton_stops.html) - the agents did absolutely nothing wrong. It was the rules of the English game that were swiss-cheesed with loopholes and inconsistencies. In effect, the Luton Six are being punished for failing to sign a document which, had they signed, would have been in breach of FA rules. Catch 22 or what...?
Then again, these are from the same rulebook which determines that the transfer of Carlos Tevez to West Ham United was a third party arrangement whereas the identical transfer to Manchester United was fair dinkum. Just how blind?
The degree of illegality with regard to Luton and the agents, if indeed anything outrightly illegal has occurred, is totally insignificant compared with the massive corruptions in the game by the Premier League, the FA, bookmakers and individual players and managers. By spinning their reality that punishing some small-town southern non-entity club proves that the game is being properly policed, the authorities make the error of mistaking fans for fools.
Over half the teams in the English Premiership are now under the full or partial yoke of the hyper-owners and the international break has presented us with some revealing insights into the worlds of the oligarchs and the offshore-financial-heads. Previously we have attempted to puncture the bubble of short-term optimism of the fans at the clubs targeted by exposing the lack of robustness of the longer term strategy of the hyper-owners from a financial perspective. Put simply, things will improve for a while but then the words "shit" and "fan" will come into close configuration. Lets check a few of the destabilisation scenarios.
* The billionaire barber buying Birmingham has blown it with Bruce who has finally tired of the distrustful business practices of the Macau casino owner. Bruce has gone to Wigan and Birmingham are rudderless. If the sale isn't completed by December 23rd then Sullivan is throwing his toys out of the pram and Birmingham will be left with half a season to rebuild a club culture.
* Newcastle are imploding. There are internalised cliques within the hierarchy and the owner's finances remain stretched making Mike Ashley a not-so-hyper-owner after all. In fact, the only thing going right at Newcastle is that the club are being paid oodles of cash by the FA, FIFA and any other regulatory authority that might be culpable for Michael Owen's hypochondriachal pseudo-injuries.
* Shinawatra continues to utilise Manchester City as an electionioneering vehicle for the forthcoming Thai elections. The signing of three Thai players at a glitzy Bangkok launch, by pure fluke, was coincident with the final day of candidate registration for the December election in Thailand. During his video address, the Crooked One stated without any hint of irony: "The new government must govern for the many, not just for the few". For the man that looted his country's treasury while he was in charge, this is a bit rich in the doublespeak department. Indeed, the Thai authorities have responded by seizing the assets of Shinawatra's children (who are also Man City board members). The $355 million in fines and taxes should affect Eriksson's January transfer window budget! The authorities are targeting Shinawatra's children after they acquired shares in Shin Corp at just 1 baht apiece through an offshore company established by their father. These self same shares were later sold to Singapore's Temasek at 49 baht in an outrageous piece of corruption. The tax-free Shin sale enraged Thailand's urban middle-class voters who staged Bangkok street demonstrations leading to the overthrow of Shinawatra. Only the most myopic of Man City fan will be unable to see where all this is leading for their currently overperforming team. Shinawatra also chose the international break to announce himself as the saviour of the young who are addicted to drugs. Having directly been responsible for 2500 deaths of supposed drug dealers in a shoot-to-kill policy while Thai Premier, the Gooch gang in Moss Side should be on their guard.
* Also in the international window, Usmanov attempted a PR exercise of his own through a revealing series of emails between his good self and The Guardian. The interaction was revealing because of Usmanov's responses to the libel and slander potentially contained in various blog and media allegations. People falling from windows to their death, a heroin dealing business acquaintance, mafia links, a rape conviction, baby boiling accomplices would normally be sufficient for one to use the justice system to clear one's name. But not for Mr Usmanov. Typical of all individuals who would prefer to keep their dodgy business and life practices private, Usmanov hides behind the excuse that he would willingly have his day in court if only he could find the time. Considering the financial rewards of a successful prosecution, we can only assume that the big boy is guilty as charged. The utilisation of the law (or not) is often an indicator of truths (think Allardyce and his threats over the BBC Panorama programme, for instance).
Which brings us back to tonight's national celebration of all things English at the food mall that is the New Wembley stadium.
There are a multitude of things worthy of celebration. A corrupt and tainted semi-triumph for the English football team is not one of them.
Always assuming that Roman doesn't have any say in the matter and the English don't self-destruct trying to achieve the draw the bookmakers are craving, that is...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Very few matches in the highly corrupted Euro 2008 Group E have been legitimate events. We brought this to the attention of readers last season and the situation has deteriorated in the intervening period to the extent that the global audience was treated to two matches (Russia/England and Israel/Russia) that were heavily externalised matches. The outcomes of both these matches were determined by illicit money and, as in the norm on such occasions, the visuals patently demonstrated the underworld dynamics.
But, hidden behind the media glare of the problematic nature of English qualification, there have been other machinations indicative of the state of the game.
We have posted on numerous previous occasions that the Quest Inquiry into bungs in football was a whitewash. From the perspective of the regulatory power bodies overseeing English football, the whole charade has been a nightmare. Conflicting rules and regulations have been revealed; the selective imposition of punishment has been exposed as a standard practice; the iceberg of footballing corruption has been lifted out of the water to a degree. It was evident months ago that there was no feasible and logical route for the FA and the Premier League to take that might validate their status as suitable guardians of the English game and so they resorted to spin, half-truths, rumour and intrigue. The final piece of this spectacular spun reality occurred at the end of last week when it was quietly announced that a few agents associated with Mike Newell and Luton Town FC had forgotten to sign a piece of paper and that, apart from this, everything was fine and dandy in Scudamore's and Barwick's worlds.
New Labour have perfected the art of burying away bad news and the FA's Blairite contortions were chosen for public release on the day prior to the critical Euro 2008Qualifiers and on the morning of England's game in Vienna. Only xmas day would have been more opaque...
And what is the result of PC Plod's sortie through the grey underground world of football? The corruption still exists in suspended animation which undermines any suspension in our disbelief at the attempts to clean up the game.
Since Mike Newell first went public and the BBC Panorama programme exposed certain operators within the game, there has been a momentum to peripheralise any real impact of the inquiry. The outcomes to date are:
i) Mike Newell was sacked as Luton Town manager as we predicted.
ii) Luton Town were relegated (as we also predicted).
iii) The Quest inquiry is now targeting six agents involved with transfers to and from Luton.
Allardyce, Bond, Arneson, Redknapp, Souness, Zahavi, McKay, Silkman etc do not appear to have had their strategies markedly disrupted by the inquiry. The excitement created by the City of London police raids at Newcastle, Portsmouth and Glasgow Rangers together with the arrest of a still-unnamed 61 year old (he may even be 62 by now) for money laundering have been carefully secreted in the unsolved cases file. None of the threats of legal action from any of those individuals originally fingered by BBC have come to fruition. But, apparently, we are expected to believe that all is well with the game because anybody related to Luton is getting hammered. Without going in to fulsome details - see David Conn's excellent post in today's Guardian for that (http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2007/11/21/the_book_thrown_at_luton_stops.html) - the agents did absolutely nothing wrong. It was the rules of the English game that were swiss-cheesed with loopholes and inconsistencies. In effect, the Luton Six are being punished for failing to sign a document which, had they signed, would have been in breach of FA rules. Catch 22 or what...?
Then again, these are from the same rulebook which determines that the transfer of Carlos Tevez to West Ham United was a third party arrangement whereas the identical transfer to Manchester United was fair dinkum. Just how blind?
The degree of illegality with regard to Luton and the agents, if indeed anything outrightly illegal has occurred, is totally insignificant compared with the massive corruptions in the game by the Premier League, the FA, bookmakers and individual players and managers. By spinning their reality that punishing some small-town southern non-entity club proves that the game is being properly policed, the authorities make the error of mistaking fans for fools.
Over half the teams in the English Premiership are now under the full or partial yoke of the hyper-owners and the international break has presented us with some revealing insights into the worlds of the oligarchs and the offshore-financial-heads. Previously we have attempted to puncture the bubble of short-term optimism of the fans at the clubs targeted by exposing the lack of robustness of the longer term strategy of the hyper-owners from a financial perspective. Put simply, things will improve for a while but then the words "shit" and "fan" will come into close configuration. Lets check a few of the destabilisation scenarios.
* The billionaire barber buying Birmingham has blown it with Bruce who has finally tired of the distrustful business practices of the Macau casino owner. Bruce has gone to Wigan and Birmingham are rudderless. If the sale isn't completed by December 23rd then Sullivan is throwing his toys out of the pram and Birmingham will be left with half a season to rebuild a club culture.
* Newcastle are imploding. There are internalised cliques within the hierarchy and the owner's finances remain stretched making Mike Ashley a not-so-hyper-owner after all. In fact, the only thing going right at Newcastle is that the club are being paid oodles of cash by the FA, FIFA and any other regulatory authority that might be culpable for Michael Owen's hypochondriachal pseudo-injuries.
* Shinawatra continues to utilise Manchester City as an electionioneering vehicle for the forthcoming Thai elections. The signing of three Thai players at a glitzy Bangkok launch, by pure fluke, was coincident with the final day of candidate registration for the December election in Thailand. During his video address, the Crooked One stated without any hint of irony: "The new government must govern for the many, not just for the few". For the man that looted his country's treasury while he was in charge, this is a bit rich in the doublespeak department. Indeed, the Thai authorities have responded by seizing the assets of Shinawatra's children (who are also Man City board members). The $355 million in fines and taxes should affect Eriksson's January transfer window budget! The authorities are targeting Shinawatra's children after they acquired shares in Shin Corp at just 1 baht apiece through an offshore company established by their father. These self same shares were later sold to Singapore's Temasek at 49 baht in an outrageous piece of corruption. The tax-free Shin sale enraged Thailand's urban middle-class voters who staged Bangkok street demonstrations leading to the overthrow of Shinawatra. Only the most myopic of Man City fan will be unable to see where all this is leading for their currently overperforming team. Shinawatra also chose the international break to announce himself as the saviour of the young who are addicted to drugs. Having directly been responsible for 2500 deaths of supposed drug dealers in a shoot-to-kill policy while Thai Premier, the Gooch gang in Moss Side should be on their guard.
* Also in the international window, Usmanov attempted a PR exercise of his own through a revealing series of emails between his good self and The Guardian. The interaction was revealing because of Usmanov's responses to the libel and slander potentially contained in various blog and media allegations. People falling from windows to their death, a heroin dealing business acquaintance, mafia links, a rape conviction, baby boiling accomplices would normally be sufficient for one to use the justice system to clear one's name. But not for Mr Usmanov. Typical of all individuals who would prefer to keep their dodgy business and life practices private, Usmanov hides behind the excuse that he would willingly have his day in court if only he could find the time. Considering the financial rewards of a successful prosecution, we can only assume that the big boy is guilty as charged. The utilisation of the law (or not) is often an indicator of truths (think Allardyce and his threats over the BBC Panorama programme, for instance).
Which brings us back to tonight's national celebration of all things English at the food mall that is the New Wembley stadium.
There are a multitude of things worthy of celebration. A corrupt and tainted semi-triumph for the English football team is not one of them.
Always assuming that Roman doesn't have any say in the matter and the English don't self-destruct trying to achieve the draw the bookmakers are craving, that is...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Monday, 19 November 2007
Land Of Dope And Tory
Omer Golan's got a brand new £50K Merc courtesy of English bookmaker Fred Done after scoring the winning goal for Israel at the weekend.
Spectacular society salvation comes in many forms.
Even by the standards of the English media where fact and spun disinformation were long ago divorced from one another, the reality presented to us as the Israel versus Russia football match stands out like a beacon.
David Platt, when not working alongside Michael Owen training racehorses in Cheshire, is the brain who Sky Television wheel out when it is considered that real-time intellectual evaluations will need to be made as a corrupt piece of theatre unfolds in front of our eyes. On Friday night, Platt was in Vienna bemoaning the Russian-Israeli conspiracy against Albion, that scion of moral rectitude. The going-through-the-motions-prior-to-Wembley-oblivion slant to Platt's input weighed heavily on a nation's collective conscience. Thirty three minutes in and Michael Owen feigns injury to further depress the mood - even in the incredibly remote likelihood that England would have something to play for against Croatia next Wednesday, how can they win without Rooney and the talismanic (sic) Owen?
You can outbid the Russians in the buying of Israeli motivation. That's how...
The Israeli/Russian football match was perfect for a broad xenophobic pre-match media campaign. The English right still despises Russia based on a Soviet-era template while the English left despises Israel for their geopolitical zionism in the Middle East. Perfect. Additionally, pure xenophobes of all political hues across the nation were able to dust off the anti-semitism which seemingly still exists everywhere. The mock moral high ground taken by the media against this conspiratorial event perpetrated by people that we have never really trusted anyway was duplicitous in the extreme.
As Saturday morning dawns and we all receive our free Israeli flag courtesy of The Sun - these people may be below us on all levels but we require their assistance today so get out there and do the fake support thing - the national mood is resigned and sombre. Imagine the fate both of these flags and a nation's attitude if Israel had palpably sold out to the Russians instead...
Last week, we posted about the range of options which might allow England to compete (initially, at least) in this summer's Euro 2008. Option vii) was the corruption of choice (unless, unbelievably, our "One final option" gets the nod). On this particular occasion, we have no structural evidence of the mechanism whereby England (and those who require for England to reach the Finals) outbid the Russians for the affections of the Israeli team. We do, however, have the betting market patterns to analyse and bookmakers who are known to be closely linked to the Jewish money in the marketplace knew the outcome on Friday and traded the position with chutzpah to high liquidity (and massive profit) on the day of the match. Rumours of this corruption were circulating the trading rooms in late October and it would require excessive naivety to believe that such newsworthy inside information wouldn't have been in the knowledge of the likes of Platt and the wider mainstream media.
Anyway, back to script, Sky has jetted Platt from Vienna to Tel Aviv to maintain the wall-to-wall theatre of the alleged-great-nation failing ignominiously type of event. After the game the Sky brain waxed lyrical but not about the outcome which sees English qualification virtually assured. Instead, Platt was after the conspiracy theorists who had predicted that the game would be "bought". This was a triumph of doublespeak. The game was "bought" but it was us that did the buying. So, that's okay then.
The British (like the Americans) rely on perfidy and violence abroad and cruelty and inequality at home while corruption is omnipresent. This template covers all international affairs be they politics, business, war or sport. Perfidious corruption won the day on Saturday but such machinations hardly merited the fuelled-up/doped-up excesses of celebration that followed this magnificent national achievement. Lets examine this "achievement". The England football team, with several team members creatively betting against themselves and deliberately underperforming early in the campaign, have eventually managed to qualify for the Euro 2008 Finals - via bribery and corruption, they have bought their way out of an incredibly weak group.
And this is a prompt for a countrywide party? Weird place...
So UEFA, the FA, the bookmakers and the media have moulded the finalists after the pretence of a democratic competitive qualifying phase. Shame. Although there are some things to look forward to in the tournament - the underrated Romanians and England's timely demise being just two - Euro 2008 will be cheapened by the presence of the top tier corrupt nations like England, Spain, Italy and France who have purchased their right to proceed away from glare of the floodlights.
From one angle, this charade at least has claims of meritocracy. After all, if Roman hadn't roubled the ref...
Is this how we should expect our sport to develop?
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Spectacular society salvation comes in many forms.
Even by the standards of the English media where fact and spun disinformation were long ago divorced from one another, the reality presented to us as the Israel versus Russia football match stands out like a beacon.
David Platt, when not working alongside Michael Owen training racehorses in Cheshire, is the brain who Sky Television wheel out when it is considered that real-time intellectual evaluations will need to be made as a corrupt piece of theatre unfolds in front of our eyes. On Friday night, Platt was in Vienna bemoaning the Russian-Israeli conspiracy against Albion, that scion of moral rectitude. The going-through-the-motions-prior-to-Wembley-oblivion slant to Platt's input weighed heavily on a nation's collective conscience. Thirty three minutes in and Michael Owen feigns injury to further depress the mood - even in the incredibly remote likelihood that England would have something to play for against Croatia next Wednesday, how can they win without Rooney and the talismanic (sic) Owen?
You can outbid the Russians in the buying of Israeli motivation. That's how...
The Israeli/Russian football match was perfect for a broad xenophobic pre-match media campaign. The English right still despises Russia based on a Soviet-era template while the English left despises Israel for their geopolitical zionism in the Middle East. Perfect. Additionally, pure xenophobes of all political hues across the nation were able to dust off the anti-semitism which seemingly still exists everywhere. The mock moral high ground taken by the media against this conspiratorial event perpetrated by people that we have never really trusted anyway was duplicitous in the extreme.
As Saturday morning dawns and we all receive our free Israeli flag courtesy of The Sun - these people may be below us on all levels but we require their assistance today so get out there and do the fake support thing - the national mood is resigned and sombre. Imagine the fate both of these flags and a nation's attitude if Israel had palpably sold out to the Russians instead...
Last week, we posted about the range of options which might allow England to compete (initially, at least) in this summer's Euro 2008. Option vii) was the corruption of choice (unless, unbelievably, our "One final option" gets the nod). On this particular occasion, we have no structural evidence of the mechanism whereby England (and those who require for England to reach the Finals) outbid the Russians for the affections of the Israeli team. We do, however, have the betting market patterns to analyse and bookmakers who are known to be closely linked to the Jewish money in the marketplace knew the outcome on Friday and traded the position with chutzpah to high liquidity (and massive profit) on the day of the match. Rumours of this corruption were circulating the trading rooms in late October and it would require excessive naivety to believe that such newsworthy inside information wouldn't have been in the knowledge of the likes of Platt and the wider mainstream media.
Anyway, back to script, Sky has jetted Platt from Vienna to Tel Aviv to maintain the wall-to-wall theatre of the alleged-great-nation failing ignominiously type of event. After the game the Sky brain waxed lyrical but not about the outcome which sees English qualification virtually assured. Instead, Platt was after the conspiracy theorists who had predicted that the game would be "bought". This was a triumph of doublespeak. The game was "bought" but it was us that did the buying. So, that's okay then.
The British (like the Americans) rely on perfidy and violence abroad and cruelty and inequality at home while corruption is omnipresent. This template covers all international affairs be they politics, business, war or sport. Perfidious corruption won the day on Saturday but such machinations hardly merited the fuelled-up/doped-up excesses of celebration that followed this magnificent national achievement. Lets examine this "achievement". The England football team, with several team members creatively betting against themselves and deliberately underperforming early in the campaign, have eventually managed to qualify for the Euro 2008 Finals - via bribery and corruption, they have bought their way out of an incredibly weak group.
And this is a prompt for a countrywide party? Weird place...
So UEFA, the FA, the bookmakers and the media have moulded the finalists after the pretence of a democratic competitive qualifying phase. Shame. Although there are some things to look forward to in the tournament - the underrated Romanians and England's timely demise being just two - Euro 2008 will be cheapened by the presence of the top tier corrupt nations like England, Spain, Italy and France who have purchased their right to proceed away from glare of the floodlights.
From one angle, this charade at least has claims of meritocracy. After all, if Roman hadn't roubled the ref...
Is this how we should expect our sport to develop?
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Saturday, 17 November 2007
Spooky Sport
Yesterday, we posted about skewed incentives caused by external corrupt influences.
Today, we focus on skewed incentives caused by a breakdown in logic with regard to the competition format.
What were UEFA thinking of when they determined the seeding and draw structure for the Euro 2008 Finals next summer? By granting three of the four seeded slots to Austria and Switzerland (the co-hosts) together with Greece (the European champions), UEFA have built a template that is causing a devaluation in the integrity of many of the matches towards the end of the qualifying phase.
To bring this reality into focus, we have run the remaining games in the Qualifiers through our computers to determine the most likely finalists - we are then able to evaluate each nation's coefficient. It is this UEFA coefficient that determines where the 13 other qualifiers will be placed in the seedings for next summer's Finals. If we've still got your attention then stay with it. It's worth it if you are taking any interest in the weekend Euro 2008 markets.
Below are the four ranks of seeds as currently projected by our model (the figures in brackets are the current FIFA Global Rankings of the projected qualifiers):
Seed 1: Austria (88); Switzerland (41); Greece (14); Netherlands (7).
Seed 2: Germany (5); Czech Republic (9); Croatia (10); Sweden (24).
Seed 3: Portugal (8); Italy (3); Romania (12); France (4).
Seed 4: Spain (6); Poland (20); Norway (21); Russia (16).
There's so much information in this data with respect to this weekend's markets and we attempt below to skirt the boundaries of our isolationism to disclose what we are able to without influencing either the markets or our proprietary trading and information provision. So here are some things to think about...
* Firstly, lets establish a core fact. The qualifiers listed above are the most likely finalists if one approaches the remaining games probabilistically. For example, we focused on the English group yesterday and we have no wish to add anything further today except to say that if England qualify automatically instead of Croatia, they would feature in the second seeding level.
* There is a clear dichotomy to the pattern in the seedings. Seeding Levels 1 and 4 (average FIFA ranking 27) are considerably weaker than Seeding Levels 2 and 3 (average FIFA ranking 9).
* In absolute terms, this does not matter with regard to the finals. The Seeding Levels are simply scrambled and should be more logically ordered as follows:
Top Seeds = Por/Ita/Rom/Fra
2nd Seeds = Ger/CR/Cro/Swe
3rd Seeds = Spa/Pol/Nor/Rus
4th Seeds = Aust/Swiz/Gre/Neth
* Now this would cause no issues apart from two key positions in the seeding matrix. The positions occupied in our projections by Netherlands and Spain are, by some distance, the key places in the overall matrix. The reasons are obvious. All the other potential favourites for Euro 2008 are grouped together while the Dutch and the Spaniards are seeded with the outsiders. Netherlands effectively could end up in a group with Italy, Germany and Spain. The top teams who avoid sharing with the outsiders will significantly improve their chances of being in an easier group as there will be a 75% chance of getting one of Pol/Nor/Rus and an equivalent percentage probability of getting one of Aust/Swiz/Gre.
* In 16-team Euro Finals, the benefits gained by being in an easy group are mammoth. If two of your six potential matches in the finals are against second tier opponents, the advantages for the latter stages are evident both with regard to disciplinary and fitness areas.
* Last month's Germany versus Czech Republic game represented the beginning of the shenanigans that are entirely of UEFA's own making. Germany had qualified a few days earlier and, as soon as the markets opened in Asia, money flooded onto the Czechs. The massive gamble was landed and only the leisure punters and the fans were left feeling short-changed. If Germany were to have won their final three group matches, they would have ended up in with the highest UEFA coefficient with the result that they would be in the unenviable position now occupied by the Dutch.
* For the teams that are clustered around the two extremities of this warped reversal in seeding, the final two rounds of games are problematic. A country obviously wishes to succeed. But, not too much... There are going to be a fair few games that will be determined by the skewed incentives of UEFA's own design. Effectively, UEFA have unwittingly created a bunch of fixed matches which is a pretty neat way of shooting your own integrity in the foot.
As Europe's governing body decided against utilising Game Theory when designing the format for their competition, they have produced a pickle. There's a simple enough solution to this UEFA autism although it is too late to change the rules for next year's brand of Euro. Use the FIFA rankings! If the FIFA rankings had been utilised for the format, the seedings appear logical and meritocratically hierarchical, namely:
Seed 1: Ger/Ita/Fra/Spa
Seed 2: Por/CR/Cro/Neth
Seed 3: Rom/Gre/Rus/Pol
Seed 4: Nor/Swe/Aust/Swiz
A further interesting aspect of this whole kerfuffle is its demonstration of German clear-sighted long-term strategic focus on a project in hand. Even if the English set up were able to organise a piss up in a brewery, I would not imagine that they would be planning their tournament route in October for the following June. My guess would be that, with McClaren, his strategic thinking always struggles to surpass his short term memory issues.
Italy, France and Germany are, respectively, the third, fourth and fifth strongest countries in Europe if one focuses on the performances in club tournaments eg Champions League and UEFA Cup. For UEFA international events, these three nations rate first, second and third. In comparison, England rank 2nd in club competitions and merely 10th internationally. Of course, lack of strategy is only one of the causes of this effect - the presence of corruption in England games and the weakness of the available domestic footballer pool are two rather obvious inputs.
UEFA have further muddied the level-playing-field today by allowing non-concurrency in the kick off times. From an analytical perspective, some matches may only be partially addressed until earlier games are concluded and the issue extends to games that, although not concurrent, share some of the same time window.
Be very wary of these matters if trading today and next Wednesday - these are both eyes-in-the-back-of-your-head days. There are some teams that need to do a certain amount to qualify without doing so much that they face first stage elimination in the finals. Others must win at all costs. And, in some cases, the incentive is able to invert in-running. Even more entertainingly, the whole matrix might be shuffled to a degree by, for example, Turkey beating Norway.
Our whiteboard is a mass of interactive formulae and non-linear mathematics today!
Enjoy...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Today, we focus on skewed incentives caused by a breakdown in logic with regard to the competition format.
What were UEFA thinking of when they determined the seeding and draw structure for the Euro 2008 Finals next summer? By granting three of the four seeded slots to Austria and Switzerland (the co-hosts) together with Greece (the European champions), UEFA have built a template that is causing a devaluation in the integrity of many of the matches towards the end of the qualifying phase.
To bring this reality into focus, we have run the remaining games in the Qualifiers through our computers to determine the most likely finalists - we are then able to evaluate each nation's coefficient. It is this UEFA coefficient that determines where the 13 other qualifiers will be placed in the seedings for next summer's Finals. If we've still got your attention then stay with it. It's worth it if you are taking any interest in the weekend Euro 2008 markets.
Below are the four ranks of seeds as currently projected by our model (the figures in brackets are the current FIFA Global Rankings of the projected qualifiers):
Seed 1: Austria (88); Switzerland (41); Greece (14); Netherlands (7).
Seed 2: Germany (5); Czech Republic (9); Croatia (10); Sweden (24).
Seed 3: Portugal (8); Italy (3); Romania (12); France (4).
Seed 4: Spain (6); Poland (20); Norway (21); Russia (16).
There's so much information in this data with respect to this weekend's markets and we attempt below to skirt the boundaries of our isolationism to disclose what we are able to without influencing either the markets or our proprietary trading and information provision. So here are some things to think about...
* Firstly, lets establish a core fact. The qualifiers listed above are the most likely finalists if one approaches the remaining games probabilistically. For example, we focused on the English group yesterday and we have no wish to add anything further today except to say that if England qualify automatically instead of Croatia, they would feature in the second seeding level.
* There is a clear dichotomy to the pattern in the seedings. Seeding Levels 1 and 4 (average FIFA ranking 27) are considerably weaker than Seeding Levels 2 and 3 (average FIFA ranking 9).
* In absolute terms, this does not matter with regard to the finals. The Seeding Levels are simply scrambled and should be more logically ordered as follows:
Top Seeds = Por/Ita/Rom/Fra
2nd Seeds = Ger/CR/Cro/Swe
3rd Seeds = Spa/Pol/Nor/Rus
4th Seeds = Aust/Swiz/Gre/Neth
* Now this would cause no issues apart from two key positions in the seeding matrix. The positions occupied in our projections by Netherlands and Spain are, by some distance, the key places in the overall matrix. The reasons are obvious. All the other potential favourites for Euro 2008 are grouped together while the Dutch and the Spaniards are seeded with the outsiders. Netherlands effectively could end up in a group with Italy, Germany and Spain. The top teams who avoid sharing with the outsiders will significantly improve their chances of being in an easier group as there will be a 75% chance of getting one of Pol/Nor/Rus and an equivalent percentage probability of getting one of Aust/Swiz/Gre.
* In 16-team Euro Finals, the benefits gained by being in an easy group are mammoth. If two of your six potential matches in the finals are against second tier opponents, the advantages for the latter stages are evident both with regard to disciplinary and fitness areas.
* Last month's Germany versus Czech Republic game represented the beginning of the shenanigans that are entirely of UEFA's own making. Germany had qualified a few days earlier and, as soon as the markets opened in Asia, money flooded onto the Czechs. The massive gamble was landed and only the leisure punters and the fans were left feeling short-changed. If Germany were to have won their final three group matches, they would have ended up in with the highest UEFA coefficient with the result that they would be in the unenviable position now occupied by the Dutch.
* For the teams that are clustered around the two extremities of this warped reversal in seeding, the final two rounds of games are problematic. A country obviously wishes to succeed. But, not too much... There are going to be a fair few games that will be determined by the skewed incentives of UEFA's own design. Effectively, UEFA have unwittingly created a bunch of fixed matches which is a pretty neat way of shooting your own integrity in the foot.
As Europe's governing body decided against utilising Game Theory when designing the format for their competition, they have produced a pickle. There's a simple enough solution to this UEFA autism although it is too late to change the rules for next year's brand of Euro. Use the FIFA rankings! If the FIFA rankings had been utilised for the format, the seedings appear logical and meritocratically hierarchical, namely:
Seed 1: Ger/Ita/Fra/Spa
Seed 2: Por/CR/Cro/Neth
Seed 3: Rom/Gre/Rus/Pol
Seed 4: Nor/Swe/Aust/Swiz
A further interesting aspect of this whole kerfuffle is its demonstration of German clear-sighted long-term strategic focus on a project in hand. Even if the English set up were able to organise a piss up in a brewery, I would not imagine that they would be planning their tournament route in October for the following June. My guess would be that, with McClaren, his strategic thinking always struggles to surpass his short term memory issues.
Italy, France and Germany are, respectively, the third, fourth and fifth strongest countries in Europe if one focuses on the performances in club tournaments eg Champions League and UEFA Cup. For UEFA international events, these three nations rate first, second and third. In comparison, England rank 2nd in club competitions and merely 10th internationally. Of course, lack of strategy is only one of the causes of this effect - the presence of corruption in England games and the weakness of the available domestic footballer pool are two rather obvious inputs.
UEFA have further muddied the level-playing-field today by allowing non-concurrency in the kick off times. From an analytical perspective, some matches may only be partially addressed until earlier games are concluded and the issue extends to games that, although not concurrent, share some of the same time window.
Be very wary of these matters if trading today and next Wednesday - these are both eyes-in-the-back-of-your-head days. There are some teams that need to do a certain amount to qualify without doing so much that they face first stage elimination in the finals. Others must win at all costs. And, in some cases, the incentive is able to invert in-running. Even more entertainingly, the whole matrix might be shuffled to a degree by, for example, Turkey beating Norway.
Our whiteboard is a mass of interactive formulae and non-linear mathematics today!
Enjoy...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Friday, 16 November 2007
England Staying Home?
It is a pity that the geopolitical machinations of Israel don't receive the same degree of media attention as their footballing ones as page after page after page discusses the realities about to be unleashed onto our horizons.
Tomorrow's Israel versus Russia is a major problem not only for England, the Football Association, the media, the bookmakers, UEFA and the feelgood factor of a nation at large, it also has the potential to cause issues regarding the integrity of the game as a whole.
The inappropriate linkages and liaisons in various aspects of politics, business and football between the two nations significantly increase the probability of the match being a done deal. Fair enough, there's a whole load of done deals out there and this one is only worthy of note due to the implications regarding English qualification. However, the potential opposite dynamic against this power base is represented by any or all of those listed above as being most negatively undermined by Three Lions failure.
UEFA have selected the two Stefanos to officiate - match referee Stefano Farina and primary assistant referee, Stefano Ayroldi. Farina is one of Platini's finest and he has been known to put in match performances that are positively correlated with institutional desires (in the opinions of some). Ayroldi is most definitely problematic although in a manner that is proprietary analytical territory so we are not willing to discuss here.
And the bookies are facing a massive hit on the event. All the big big money in Asia has been on Russia and, additionally, the layers face having to market Euro 2008 without the xenophobic pound entering the satchel. The price is already ludicrous for a game approaching anything like legit. Under normal circumstances, the match would have Russia as 0.15 goal favourite, as I write the market is hovering around Russia -1.40 goal which is a heavy eradication of value. In addition to the footballing links represented by the likes of Abramovich, Grant, Zahavi, Gayadamak Mk I and II and Eli Azur, Zahavi's partner in crime, there are also issues over Abramovich funding Israeli youth football and media links that will make money out of Russia reaching the finals as both Zahavi and Azur have stakes in the Israeli company with exclusive media rights to Euro 2008 where the massive Russian emigree population in Israel makes profit a sure thing as soon as qualification is achieved.
Steve McClaren, when not travelling to America for no reason whatsoever, has been busy consulting the weather forecasts that at one time were predicting temperatures in the eighties for Tel Aviv tomorrow. Most suitably for such a spectacular event, 68 is now the projected fahrenheit. The Incompetent One should really already be on his way but there are those within the game that believe that something can be done to rescue the Anglian dilemma. One of the reasons for the pulling of most of the markets offering odds on the next England manager was the rumour that a deal might be possible that can allow McClaren, Lampard, Owen and co to walk out next summer without any hint of shenanigans being behind their place in the Finals. Lets have a look at some (but not all) the options:
i) UEFA can ban someone. England will almost certainly have the highest points total of the third place non-qualifiers. If Platini is able to generate some arbitrary reason why any particular qualifier should not be allowed to take part in the event, bob's-your-uncle. Current favourites for omission in an office straw-poll are Romania, Russia, Croatia or Turkey (if they get the better of Norway).
ii) Austria could pull out. Not as preposterous as it seems this one... A petition, already with tens of thousands of signatures, is being prepared demanding that the national team withdraw from co-hosting next summer's event due to the fear of the team being an embarrassment to the nation. Like all ex-imperial countries, Austria has both an inflated opinion of itself on the world stage and a rampant right wing - step forward Jörg Haider - and the thought of overbearing failure in an international spectacular is too much for the national psyche to bear. The absurdity would be that Austria would be replaced by an England team destined to be an equal embarrassment to their nation.
iii) Play the markets. The global football betting markets are becoming more and more like humongous holographic poker tables at which we all take our seat. The Russian and Israeli bookmakers are already massively involved in the Asian markets bidding up their strong hand. The Russian/Israeli power lobby are financial pragmatists. A co-ordinated cartelised trading strategy by the major west European trading firms together with some supportive input from the Far East could create skewed incentives to an extent that it might be in Abramovich's interests for Russia not to qualify. Potentially costly (very!) to the layers if Roman does the bluff call...
iv) Fred Done, the owner of the hyper licensed betting office that is the Old Trafford franchise, is offering a £50K Mercedes to any Israeli who scores a winning goal against Russia tomorrow. This manner of skewing incentives, and creative marketing, may well persuade certain insiders to behave accordingly. Its all a matter of incentives. Everybody has a price and that price varies in relation to the kudos of winning (as opposed to deliberately not).
v) Food poisoning. Martin Jol would probably still be in a job if the urban myth of the stomach bugs hadn't ensured that North London enemies Arsenal qualified for the Champions League in their place. A chef's hat full of shekels or dollars should do the trick...
vi) UEFA could resort to form and simply change the rules. As Everton found out in another piece of establishment power play favouring city neighbours Liverpool when the Toffees were chewed in Romania allowing UEFA to maintain no more than four representatives per country after they rewrote the rule-book in crayon following that night in Istanbul.
vii) As we have posted previously, suitcases of money are a major motivational tool around the Mediterranean and, increasingly, the practice is gaining a wider acceptance. And it is through the obsessive media micro-focus on the Israel v Russia game that, at times, borders on the anti-semitic in its generalisations that the proper direction for focus is suitably ignored. Suitcases of money may come from either direction and, as with so many late season games in Serie A and La Liga, we are in a bidding war for control of the Israeli motivation. Furthermore, if Macedonia beat Croatia and England overachieve to the required level at Wembley next Wednesday then the Samaritans will be spared a hectic evening whatever occurs in Tel Aviv. The main problem with this approach is that Croatian post-war nationalist fervour would demand a hefty and possibly prohibitive price. However, the structures exist. One of the prime reasons for the deceleration on Croat membership of the EU is the unreformed mafiosi that dominate business and political life in the country. Additionally, there is a culture of bookmakers meeting sport and doing the mutual backscratching thing. Lots of cash (and I mean lots...) plus a commitment to a future Euro Finals being held in Croatia would probably do the trick (Croatia's joint bid for the 2012 event with Hungary achieved nil points in the vote). De Bleeckere officiates which has to be good news. But for whom...?
viii) A less preferable option is for the suitcases of money to be deposited in Skopje instead. A poor pitch with motivational incentives frequently does the trick in Spain and Italy. Mr De Bleeckere would have to be mentioned in relation to this option too.
Assuming that the Israeli/Russian part of any deal is internally watertight, there is little that UEFA or anyone else can do to change the outcome. A similar event was Juventus v Siena a couple of years back in Serie A when The Old Lady raced into a 3-0 lead within 8 minutes in a critical end-of-season title race event - not much any official can do about that. UEFA also runs the risk of making a global media event a farce if one assumes the solidity of the event. Power groups battling on a football pitch in the full glare of global media attention is rarely an edifying sight.
One final option that is open to bookmakers is one employed in various leagues around Europe on the final rounds of matches. If there is nothing that may be done to prevent a reality coming to pass and this reality is widely perceived by the public, all parties may get together in a damage limitation exercise to achieve a peculiarity in outcomes which still result in the medals being placed around the same necks but with the extra bonus of financial benefits for all market participants aware of the scam. The cartel participants require trust to already exist between the parties for such an agenda to be put in place particularly when the events are not concurrent. Trust is conspicuous by its absence in any personality profiling of Mr Abramovich which probably makes this one a no-no.
If none of the above corruptions are able to be perpetrated and other potential routes are not explored, we will be left with a damning failure for the English game. All the xenophobes are already out there blaming the foreigners who are preventing England from reaching their deserved heights. Quotas, protectionism and restrictions on freedom of movement are the campaigns of the day and, yet, the reasons for England's possible non-qualification lie nearer to home. Market influenced and deliberate underperformance in several of the early group games may prove to be one episode of brinksmanship too far. After the Macedonia and Israel drawn matches, there were lots of insiders laughing all the way to their offshore financial centres - a prime example of short termist business psychopathy.
UEFA is bombarding us with marketed blurb about next summer's competition. EXPECT EMOTIONS we are told. The only emotion will be disappointment and the only thing we expect is corruption. And lots of it...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Tomorrow's Israel versus Russia is a major problem not only for England, the Football Association, the media, the bookmakers, UEFA and the feelgood factor of a nation at large, it also has the potential to cause issues regarding the integrity of the game as a whole.
The inappropriate linkages and liaisons in various aspects of politics, business and football between the two nations significantly increase the probability of the match being a done deal. Fair enough, there's a whole load of done deals out there and this one is only worthy of note due to the implications regarding English qualification. However, the potential opposite dynamic against this power base is represented by any or all of those listed above as being most negatively undermined by Three Lions failure.
UEFA have selected the two Stefanos to officiate - match referee Stefano Farina and primary assistant referee, Stefano Ayroldi. Farina is one of Platini's finest and he has been known to put in match performances that are positively correlated with institutional desires (in the opinions of some). Ayroldi is most definitely problematic although in a manner that is proprietary analytical territory so we are not willing to discuss here.
And the bookies are facing a massive hit on the event. All the big big money in Asia has been on Russia and, additionally, the layers face having to market Euro 2008 without the xenophobic pound entering the satchel. The price is already ludicrous for a game approaching anything like legit. Under normal circumstances, the match would have Russia as 0.15 goal favourite, as I write the market is hovering around Russia -1.40 goal which is a heavy eradication of value. In addition to the footballing links represented by the likes of Abramovich, Grant, Zahavi, Gayadamak Mk I and II and Eli Azur, Zahavi's partner in crime, there are also issues over Abramovich funding Israeli youth football and media links that will make money out of Russia reaching the finals as both Zahavi and Azur have stakes in the Israeli company with exclusive media rights to Euro 2008 where the massive Russian emigree population in Israel makes profit a sure thing as soon as qualification is achieved.
Steve McClaren, when not travelling to America for no reason whatsoever, has been busy consulting the weather forecasts that at one time were predicting temperatures in the eighties for Tel Aviv tomorrow. Most suitably for such a spectacular event, 68 is now the projected fahrenheit. The Incompetent One should really already be on his way but there are those within the game that believe that something can be done to rescue the Anglian dilemma. One of the reasons for the pulling of most of the markets offering odds on the next England manager was the rumour that a deal might be possible that can allow McClaren, Lampard, Owen and co to walk out next summer without any hint of shenanigans being behind their place in the Finals. Lets have a look at some (but not all) the options:
i) UEFA can ban someone. England will almost certainly have the highest points total of the third place non-qualifiers. If Platini is able to generate some arbitrary reason why any particular qualifier should not be allowed to take part in the event, bob's-your-uncle. Current favourites for omission in an office straw-poll are Romania, Russia, Croatia or Turkey (if they get the better of Norway).
ii) Austria could pull out. Not as preposterous as it seems this one... A petition, already with tens of thousands of signatures, is being prepared demanding that the national team withdraw from co-hosting next summer's event due to the fear of the team being an embarrassment to the nation. Like all ex-imperial countries, Austria has both an inflated opinion of itself on the world stage and a rampant right wing - step forward Jörg Haider - and the thought of overbearing failure in an international spectacular is too much for the national psyche to bear. The absurdity would be that Austria would be replaced by an England team destined to be an equal embarrassment to their nation.
iii) Play the markets. The global football betting markets are becoming more and more like humongous holographic poker tables at which we all take our seat. The Russian and Israeli bookmakers are already massively involved in the Asian markets bidding up their strong hand. The Russian/Israeli power lobby are financial pragmatists. A co-ordinated cartelised trading strategy by the major west European trading firms together with some supportive input from the Far East could create skewed incentives to an extent that it might be in Abramovich's interests for Russia not to qualify. Potentially costly (very!) to the layers if Roman does the bluff call...
iv) Fred Done, the owner of the hyper licensed betting office that is the Old Trafford franchise, is offering a £50K Mercedes to any Israeli who scores a winning goal against Russia tomorrow. This manner of skewing incentives, and creative marketing, may well persuade certain insiders to behave accordingly. Its all a matter of incentives. Everybody has a price and that price varies in relation to the kudos of winning (as opposed to deliberately not).
v) Food poisoning. Martin Jol would probably still be in a job if the urban myth of the stomach bugs hadn't ensured that North London enemies Arsenal qualified for the Champions League in their place. A chef's hat full of shekels or dollars should do the trick...
vi) UEFA could resort to form and simply change the rules. As Everton found out in another piece of establishment power play favouring city neighbours Liverpool when the Toffees were chewed in Romania allowing UEFA to maintain no more than four representatives per country after they rewrote the rule-book in crayon following that night in Istanbul.
vii) As we have posted previously, suitcases of money are a major motivational tool around the Mediterranean and, increasingly, the practice is gaining a wider acceptance. And it is through the obsessive media micro-focus on the Israel v Russia game that, at times, borders on the anti-semitic in its generalisations that the proper direction for focus is suitably ignored. Suitcases of money may come from either direction and, as with so many late season games in Serie A and La Liga, we are in a bidding war for control of the Israeli motivation. Furthermore, if Macedonia beat Croatia and England overachieve to the required level at Wembley next Wednesday then the Samaritans will be spared a hectic evening whatever occurs in Tel Aviv. The main problem with this approach is that Croatian post-war nationalist fervour would demand a hefty and possibly prohibitive price. However, the structures exist. One of the prime reasons for the deceleration on Croat membership of the EU is the unreformed mafiosi that dominate business and political life in the country. Additionally, there is a culture of bookmakers meeting sport and doing the mutual backscratching thing. Lots of cash (and I mean lots...) plus a commitment to a future Euro Finals being held in Croatia would probably do the trick (Croatia's joint bid for the 2012 event with Hungary achieved nil points in the vote). De Bleeckere officiates which has to be good news. But for whom...?
viii) A less preferable option is for the suitcases of money to be deposited in Skopje instead. A poor pitch with motivational incentives frequently does the trick in Spain and Italy. Mr De Bleeckere would have to be mentioned in relation to this option too.
Assuming that the Israeli/Russian part of any deal is internally watertight, there is little that UEFA or anyone else can do to change the outcome. A similar event was Juventus v Siena a couple of years back in Serie A when The Old Lady raced into a 3-0 lead within 8 minutes in a critical end-of-season title race event - not much any official can do about that. UEFA also runs the risk of making a global media event a farce if one assumes the solidity of the event. Power groups battling on a football pitch in the full glare of global media attention is rarely an edifying sight.
One final option that is open to bookmakers is one employed in various leagues around Europe on the final rounds of matches. If there is nothing that may be done to prevent a reality coming to pass and this reality is widely perceived by the public, all parties may get together in a damage limitation exercise to achieve a peculiarity in outcomes which still result in the medals being placed around the same necks but with the extra bonus of financial benefits for all market participants aware of the scam. The cartel participants require trust to already exist between the parties for such an agenda to be put in place particularly when the events are not concurrent. Trust is conspicuous by its absence in any personality profiling of Mr Abramovich which probably makes this one a no-no.
If none of the above corruptions are able to be perpetrated and other potential routes are not explored, we will be left with a damning failure for the English game. All the xenophobes are already out there blaming the foreigners who are preventing England from reaching their deserved heights. Quotas, protectionism and restrictions on freedom of movement are the campaigns of the day and, yet, the reasons for England's possible non-qualification lie nearer to home. Market influenced and deliberate underperformance in several of the early group games may prove to be one episode of brinksmanship too far. After the Macedonia and Israel drawn matches, there were lots of insiders laughing all the way to their offshore financial centres - a prime example of short termist business psychopathy.
UEFA is bombarding us with marketed blurb about next summer's competition. EXPECT EMOTIONS we are told. The only emotion will be disappointment and the only thing we expect is corruption. And lots of it...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
The G14 Go Quantum, The Super League Is Here
While the media circus has been following the "real" news - Is Joey Barton a racist thug? Is there any point to England's friendly in Austria? Will Berbatov try in his next game? Why has Michael Owen stopped playing (again!)? - there is proper stuff going down at UEFA.
It is typical of a largely eurosceptic island like England that minimal mainstream media attention has been given to these major power machinations which will shape the future of the European and, indeed, the world game over the next decade and a half.
Earlier in the year, we provided several posts about the commercial logic behind and the timetable to the onset of the European Super League (ESL) and Gordon Strachan's comments on last night's BBC Inside Sport programme have brought this whole area back under media scrutiny. Strachan reckons that: "There will be a new structure, a new body. The powers that be, the businessmen coming into football now, will say 'forget FIFA, forget UEFA, we're so powerful we'll have three (European) leagues with the best 60 clubs'."
The power struggle between UEFA and the G14(18)(50) is directly linked to the development of the foundations of the ESL and it is our belief that a blueprint for the ESL already exists. But before going on to the impacts of the current negotiations, lets get bang up to date with the recent rumblings.
Michel Platini has shaken things up since becoming UEFA President and we judge the man to have a more righteous hidden agenda compared to the previous regime. But, an agenda he has and the targets of his inverted snobbery are powerful enough not to have to do compromise. The result has been conflict in the corridors of power. Platini stepped back from his original stance of reduction of Champions League representatives from the Big 3 countries from 4 to 3. Evidently not a goer, he then restructured his position to one whereby the fourth placed team would be replaced by the domestic cup winners. This was anathema to the G14(18)(50) and the lobbying group set about establishing a new arrangement which was, apparently, agreed in principle yesterday although diplomatic secrecy means that we will all be awaiting with baited breath for the UEFA executive meeting in Lucerne on December 1st for confirmation. The final agreement scraps the idea of domestic cup winners having a route to the premier club competition and Platini's initial plan has been watered down to something which looks remarkably similar to the situation we have currently - the third placed teams in Italy, Spain and England will now enter the competition directly at the Group Stage (a victory for the lobbyists) while the fourth placed team will now have to survive the exertions of two Qualifying Rounds against pub teams from the likes of Belarus and Macedonia prior to being presented with their rightful place at the top table (a very very minor defeat for the lobbyists).
Having negotiated a victory from what was previously an impasse and, prior to that, a potential defeat, the G14(18)(50) then did the quantum thing and disappeared. Literally! Last week, the G14(18)(50) announced that it was disbanding and that the annual general meeting was cancelled with immediate effect. This volte-face is evidently a major short-term strategic adjustment. The aim of the lobbying-body-that-is-no-more is to undermine UEFA from within which is presumably what was meant by their statement regarding "working with UEFA". Because this is the reality of the situation.
Platini has drawn very clear battle-lines in his confrontation with the powerful clubs. He has, one by one, picked off the various transnational representative bodies and converted them to his agenda to allegedly democratise football on the continent. Increasingly isolated and with some of their employees effectively lining up with Platini - the Fédération International de Footballeurs Professionels (FIFPro) being the most pertinent - the G14(18)(50) have responded by gaining a negotiated victory regarding Champions League placings in return for a commitment to the UEFA umbrella. Now, if you have a room to let, you don't offer it to Rupert Murdoch unless you fancy losing the family silver and Platini has, to football's detriment, lost the short-term battle and has sown the seeds of his defeat in the longer term encounter by inviting the power teams on board. Minimal blame may be placed on Platini here. It was a no-win situation from day one.
The G14(18)(50) gain further competitive advantages via this change of strategy. As those effete betrayers of humanity discovered to their cost in Moscow last month, the selection of referee is a vital input to the integrity of the game. The G14(18)(50) have won all the Champions League competitions since time immemorial but, under Platini, it had become evident that UEFA was exerting power on the pitch too. Much better to be a sleeping giant within UEFA than an increasingly isolated yet still hyper-strong entity outside of it was the strategy of choice.
What about the 32 teams who had allegedly been approached earlier in the season for the expansion of the power lobby to 50 teams? Chelsea allegedly declined the offer and UEFA made counter-representations to the other second tier clubs. The carrot offered was the UEFA Strategy Group. This body is chaired by cuddly Kenyon (Chelsea's man on the inside) and represents over 100 of the top clubs on the continent. It is the 54/60 teams who represent the apex of this hierarchy that will form the pool for the ESL (54 if an 18 team per league system is employed).
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The outcome of this six months of turmoil is that not very much has altered. In the short term, the Champions League will look exactly the same as this year's competition and we can expect the frequency of the 7-0's and 8-0's to increase as the skill inequality continues to expand. The G14(18)(50) will now morph into the G14(18)(50)(54-60) which is enough of a challenge to my limited typing skills to be shortened back to our original G14(18). Even though this organisation no longer exists, we would expect the entity to act informally together within the UEFA system in order to achieve their medium term aims. If we are looking for integrity here, the UEFA Strategy Group has scored an own goal by allowing Kenyon to top the tree. In the end, the money will side with the money as the ESL becomes the reality.
"It [the ESL] will be that powerful that I think FIFA would have to go along and say 'we better let them get on with it because they'll just keep the players away from international level'" said Strachan later in last night's programme. Both FIFA and UEFA understand their associative roles in the future of the great gambling sport of football and, as with the hysteria over the Champions League fourth spot, they also understand the correct posture to assume in deference to one's masters.
So, who is willing to open the index market on when the ESL will come to fruition? If we were to establish a book on this event, seasons 2011/12 and 2012/13 would be the market leaders which, unfortunately, provides only 4/5 seasons for Blackpool to break into the Premiership top five.
Bring it on. As the formation of the ESL is inevitable and many domestic and Champions League matches are actually mismatches, lets get the leagues established sooner rather than later - there is a far greater chance that the infrastructure will have some meritocratic input and democratic design if Platini is still UEFA President while the process unfolds.
It is of little value taking an idealist stance on these matters. Money won nearly two decades ago and we are limited to a role of micro-influence on the new realities. But Chomsky is undoubtedly correct in asserting that incremental struggle equates with revolutionary struggle and that the correct tactic must be sought for the particular circumstance.
Still, at least none of this is as critical as Friday night in Vienna. Apart from the cash and a little betting market earner for insiders, why was a friendly international abroad arranged just before the supposedly vital Euro 2008 Qualifier against Croatia? In the initial reality, the obvious structure was for England to fail in an amateurish fashion against the Austrians prior to routing the Croats to allow the paralytic sychophants (a Stasi description of the English in case you were wondering...) to gloriously qualify for the summer extravaganza. The new reality is something else. However, the Austrian encounter is nothing but a triumph of mismanagement.
Can't wait for the "Viennese Waltz/Whirl" and/or "Goodnight Vienna" sort of headlines...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
It is typical of a largely eurosceptic island like England that minimal mainstream media attention has been given to these major power machinations which will shape the future of the European and, indeed, the world game over the next decade and a half.
Earlier in the year, we provided several posts about the commercial logic behind and the timetable to the onset of the European Super League (ESL) and Gordon Strachan's comments on last night's BBC Inside Sport programme have brought this whole area back under media scrutiny. Strachan reckons that: "There will be a new structure, a new body. The powers that be, the businessmen coming into football now, will say 'forget FIFA, forget UEFA, we're so powerful we'll have three (European) leagues with the best 60 clubs'."
The power struggle between UEFA and the G14(18)(50) is directly linked to the development of the foundations of the ESL and it is our belief that a blueprint for the ESL already exists. But before going on to the impacts of the current negotiations, lets get bang up to date with the recent rumblings.
Michel Platini has shaken things up since becoming UEFA President and we judge the man to have a more righteous hidden agenda compared to the previous regime. But, an agenda he has and the targets of his inverted snobbery are powerful enough not to have to do compromise. The result has been conflict in the corridors of power. Platini stepped back from his original stance of reduction of Champions League representatives from the Big 3 countries from 4 to 3. Evidently not a goer, he then restructured his position to one whereby the fourth placed team would be replaced by the domestic cup winners. This was anathema to the G14(18)(50) and the lobbying group set about establishing a new arrangement which was, apparently, agreed in principle yesterday although diplomatic secrecy means that we will all be awaiting with baited breath for the UEFA executive meeting in Lucerne on December 1st for confirmation. The final agreement scraps the idea of domestic cup winners having a route to the premier club competition and Platini's initial plan has been watered down to something which looks remarkably similar to the situation we have currently - the third placed teams in Italy, Spain and England will now enter the competition directly at the Group Stage (a victory for the lobbyists) while the fourth placed team will now have to survive the exertions of two Qualifying Rounds against pub teams from the likes of Belarus and Macedonia prior to being presented with their rightful place at the top table (a very very minor defeat for the lobbyists).
Having negotiated a victory from what was previously an impasse and, prior to that, a potential defeat, the G14(18)(50) then did the quantum thing and disappeared. Literally! Last week, the G14(18)(50) announced that it was disbanding and that the annual general meeting was cancelled with immediate effect. This volte-face is evidently a major short-term strategic adjustment. The aim of the lobbying-body-that-is-no-more is to undermine UEFA from within which is presumably what was meant by their statement regarding "working with UEFA". Because this is the reality of the situation.
Platini has drawn very clear battle-lines in his confrontation with the powerful clubs. He has, one by one, picked off the various transnational representative bodies and converted them to his agenda to allegedly democratise football on the continent. Increasingly isolated and with some of their employees effectively lining up with Platini - the Fédération International de Footballeurs Professionels (FIFPro) being the most pertinent - the G14(18)(50) have responded by gaining a negotiated victory regarding Champions League placings in return for a commitment to the UEFA umbrella. Now, if you have a room to let, you don't offer it to Rupert Murdoch unless you fancy losing the family silver and Platini has, to football's detriment, lost the short-term battle and has sown the seeds of his defeat in the longer term encounter by inviting the power teams on board. Minimal blame may be placed on Platini here. It was a no-win situation from day one.
The G14(18)(50) gain further competitive advantages via this change of strategy. As those effete betrayers of humanity discovered to their cost in Moscow last month, the selection of referee is a vital input to the integrity of the game. The G14(18)(50) have won all the Champions League competitions since time immemorial but, under Platini, it had become evident that UEFA was exerting power on the pitch too. Much better to be a sleeping giant within UEFA than an increasingly isolated yet still hyper-strong entity outside of it was the strategy of choice.
What about the 32 teams who had allegedly been approached earlier in the season for the expansion of the power lobby to 50 teams? Chelsea allegedly declined the offer and UEFA made counter-representations to the other second tier clubs. The carrot offered was the UEFA Strategy Group. This body is chaired by cuddly Kenyon (Chelsea's man on the inside) and represents over 100 of the top clubs on the continent. It is the 54/60 teams who represent the apex of this hierarchy that will form the pool for the ESL (54 if an 18 team per league system is employed).
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The outcome of this six months of turmoil is that not very much has altered. In the short term, the Champions League will look exactly the same as this year's competition and we can expect the frequency of the 7-0's and 8-0's to increase as the skill inequality continues to expand. The G14(18)(50) will now morph into the G14(18)(50)(54-60) which is enough of a challenge to my limited typing skills to be shortened back to our original G14(18). Even though this organisation no longer exists, we would expect the entity to act informally together within the UEFA system in order to achieve their medium term aims. If we are looking for integrity here, the UEFA Strategy Group has scored an own goal by allowing Kenyon to top the tree. In the end, the money will side with the money as the ESL becomes the reality.
"It [the ESL] will be that powerful that I think FIFA would have to go along and say 'we better let them get on with it because they'll just keep the players away from international level'" said Strachan later in last night's programme. Both FIFA and UEFA understand their associative roles in the future of the great gambling sport of football and, as with the hysteria over the Champions League fourth spot, they also understand the correct posture to assume in deference to one's masters.
So, who is willing to open the index market on when the ESL will come to fruition? If we were to establish a book on this event, seasons 2011/12 and 2012/13 would be the market leaders which, unfortunately, provides only 4/5 seasons for Blackpool to break into the Premiership top five.
Bring it on. As the formation of the ESL is inevitable and many domestic and Champions League matches are actually mismatches, lets get the leagues established sooner rather than later - there is a far greater chance that the infrastructure will have some meritocratic input and democratic design if Platini is still UEFA President while the process unfolds.
It is of little value taking an idealist stance on these matters. Money won nearly two decades ago and we are limited to a role of micro-influence on the new realities. But Chomsky is undoubtedly correct in asserting that incremental struggle equates with revolutionary struggle and that the correct tactic must be sought for the particular circumstance.
Still, at least none of this is as critical as Friday night in Vienna. Apart from the cash and a little betting market earner for insiders, why was a friendly international abroad arranged just before the supposedly vital Euro 2008 Qualifier against Croatia? In the initial reality, the obvious structure was for England to fail in an amateurish fashion against the Austrians prior to routing the Croats to allow the paralytic sychophants (a Stasi description of the English in case you were wondering...) to gloriously qualify for the summer extravaganza. The new reality is something else. However, the Austrian encounter is nothing but a triumph of mismanagement.
Can't wait for the "Viennese Waltz/Whirl" and/or "Goodnight Vienna" sort of headlines...
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Friday, 9 November 2007
It Takes Lots Of Behaviour To Get Along
Natural fake, Sepp Blatter, runs a highly dysfunctional FIFA hierarchy where, as we have previously posted, corruption is a core competency in the inner circles of power. If an organisation is going to provide control for the likes of Blatter, Jack Warner and Franz Beckenbauer then one may guarantee that the lack of professional oversight extends down to the foundations of the body.
FIFA demonstrates incompetence at all strata but they are particularly inept (as are UEFA, by the way) when the recipe involves sport and politics. Remember Uzbekistan being denied a rightful place at the last World Cup so that Warner's Trinidad and Tobago may provide a little earner for the Warner clan's travel firm while the players still await payment. Allowing Israel and Kazakhstan to play in Europe, making Australia Asian (which must delight Pauline Hanson's xenophobes), UEFA's decision to put Azerbaijan and Armenia in the same Euro 2008 Qualifying Group resulting in the cancellation of both head-to-heads, forcing Greece and Turkey to play competitively four times in three years which, unsurprisingly, has produced riots and security nightmares in an already tense relationship. There are many more examples. Whenever the football governing bodies approach the political/ nationalistic arena, their (sometimes) well-intentioned agendas are, at best, an irritation and, at worst, inflammatory.
And, if this week's edict from on high is to be taken seriously, we have an example of the latter on our hands here. A FIFA leak has forewarned the planet that: "Footballers from Northern Ireland do not have the right to play for the Republic of Ireland, despite the Good Friday Agreement". Leaving aside the idiocy of FIFA putting its big jackboot into this sensitive region at this critical period in the attempt to build an edifice of trust on the island, what the fuck are they on about anyway? Imagine if Palestine were unable to field players born in Israel when it is one and the same place anyway!
Rules are for fools and, by a happy coincidence, are also made to be broken. Some rules that is... Football and sporting organisations in general spend copious amounts of time, money and effort in developing the rulebook. To put the situation simply, these rules often fail to dovetail with both national and EU laws. Consequently, football decides unilaterally, in many cases, which occasions football's rules gain pre-eminence and which occasions that football bows to global political realities. The Bosman ruling was an example of the latter and the current leak would be typical of the former.
In an attempt to address these issues succinctly, we'll take them in turn. Lets firstly look at football. Now haven't we got an amateur hierarchy to achieve underperformance without FIFA's external influences? - Eire are self-harming enough without further handicaps being placed on their progress. And, Good Friday Agreement or not, the selection of players on the island has always been a two-way process. Numerous catholics have played for the North and some, like Neil Lennon, have suffered for doing so while Jack Charlton's successful Eire team was a 50-50 split between the two religious backgrounds. Usually in law, there is precedence to guide the lawmakers but football, under the tutelage of FIFA, is arbitrary in its rulings to an extent where logic packed up its bags and went home ages ago. There is scarcely a second or third tier national team worldwide that doesn't possess some Brazilinho purporting to actually be a Muhammad or whatever. And there are numerous parallel examples - Klose and Podolski were both born in Poland but play for Germany; the French national team pillages former African colonies for players; the number of Argentinians to have discovered Italian grandparents continues unabated; England's squad is currently over 50% of Jamaican and/or Irish descent and looking slightly further back, John Barnes wasn't born in Surrey's version of Kingston. The recent spat between Ferguson and Wenger merely emphasises the spectrum of opinion. Ferguson wants restrictions, quotas, protectionism in the name of little-islander mentality whereas Wenger believes in meritocracy and freedom of movement. Wider society should take note of the benefits of Wenger's more enlightened "open source" approach to business.
The messy history of the thirty two counties inevitably has produced some warped realities on the ground - Derry City's participation in the Irish Premier League being only the most glaring example of political expedience. And Derry City are key to this issue. What is Derry if it is not an enclave within the six counties? Essentially, we are dealing with the politics of occupied territories here and it is not an area where FIFA should tread. Nationalism is an anachronism. Football should be moving beyond such petty nonsense and focus instead on the corruption, illegal gambling, player trafficking and drug abuse that defines the sport. A simple solution to the Irish impasse would be to allow players to select which of the two countries to represent or, preferably, go the whole hog, in a rugby union stylee, and create a united team. This would provide the "country" with more clout within both FIFA and UEFA which will improve qualification chances and provide a positive role model to the troubled territories of the North overall. With the correct political will, humans are quite able to solve community issues without destabilisation from afar. Focus should be given to the social improvements created by the Setanta Cup which features teams from both sides of the border rather than rooting out divisive constructs. A final point to be made with regard to the footballing aspect of this issue is that the non-appliance of internal rulings is the norm rather than the exception when it comes to the great game. Think bungs, third party arrangements, players and officials having links to betting organisations and institutionalised corruption. A particularly silly loophole popped up just this last week. No player is allowed to play for two Champions League sides in the same season. Fair dinkum, it stops glory hunters. Why does the same ruling not apply to managers as Koeman's move from PSV to Valencia has spotlighted? Yet more arbitrariness...
The recent history of sport is littered with thousands of such examples of the re-nationalisation of individuals to the benefit of the major global sporting powers. East African runners, East European weightlifters and South Asian cricketers utilise this wormhole of meritocratic recognition to achieve their sporting aims albeit for the benefit of Team USA or Team GB rather than the island of Jamaica or wherever. It is time for sport to be separated from nationalism and regionalism and placed firmly into the sector in which it most belongs - entertainment. Drugged up and naturalised sportspeople are not indicative of the primacy of their adopted nation. It is a peculiar irony that results in xenophobes supporting the very individuals who are the targets of their racism so long as it is for the greater glory (sic) of the homeland.
Politically, Blair's legacy has been a carve-up to the benefit of the mafiosi of both sides at Stormont - where are John Hume and David Trimble now? This is volatile to say the least. Football on the island of Ireland is in a position to lead society and, hopefully, politicians to a more inclusive future. Much was made recently of the absence of many Black players from the winning South African World Cup winning rugby union team. And, yet, this perceived racism is not what I saw in those winning celebrations. Team South Africa were a multiracial outfit if you looked at the squad and support staff overall. Neither the gusto with which the white players sang "Nkosi sikelel' iAfrika" (originally, an ANC act of defiance to apartheid, after all) nor the genuine warmth and affection between the team members and South African President Thabo Mbeki were suggestive of anything other than a microcosm of racial harmony creating global success. This is not to suggest that South Africa is a united land where inequalities based on race matter no more. But it is a prime example of the benefits of the truth and reconciliation and trust and diplomacy and dialogue approach undertaken post-apartheid that a team is able to rise above societal division to win together as a group of people.
Ireland should take note. We can all harp back to our clannish singing and culture but it is one island and everybody has to get along together. Or, of course, staying stuck in the middle ages of social living is another option.
Finally and far more importantly, there can only be two candidates to replace the hapless Steve Staunton as manager of Eire. Either drag Big Jack out of whichever river (or pub) he is immersing himself in or give the job to Shane MacGowan. To be sure, Eire would not qualify for anything but what's new? And at least it would be a laugh...
NB. Since writing this post, FIFA has announced a review of the FAI/IAF decision and, hopefully, a compromise may be diplomatically achieved.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
FIFA demonstrates incompetence at all strata but they are particularly inept (as are UEFA, by the way) when the recipe involves sport and politics. Remember Uzbekistan being denied a rightful place at the last World Cup so that Warner's Trinidad and Tobago may provide a little earner for the Warner clan's travel firm while the players still await payment. Allowing Israel and Kazakhstan to play in Europe, making Australia Asian (which must delight Pauline Hanson's xenophobes), UEFA's decision to put Azerbaijan and Armenia in the same Euro 2008 Qualifying Group resulting in the cancellation of both head-to-heads, forcing Greece and Turkey to play competitively four times in three years which, unsurprisingly, has produced riots and security nightmares in an already tense relationship. There are many more examples. Whenever the football governing bodies approach the political/ nationalistic arena, their (sometimes) well-intentioned agendas are, at best, an irritation and, at worst, inflammatory.
And, if this week's edict from on high is to be taken seriously, we have an example of the latter on our hands here. A FIFA leak has forewarned the planet that: "Footballers from Northern Ireland do not have the right to play for the Republic of Ireland, despite the Good Friday Agreement". Leaving aside the idiocy of FIFA putting its big jackboot into this sensitive region at this critical period in the attempt to build an edifice of trust on the island, what the fuck are they on about anyway? Imagine if Palestine were unable to field players born in Israel when it is one and the same place anyway!
Rules are for fools and, by a happy coincidence, are also made to be broken. Some rules that is... Football and sporting organisations in general spend copious amounts of time, money and effort in developing the rulebook. To put the situation simply, these rules often fail to dovetail with both national and EU laws. Consequently, football decides unilaterally, in many cases, which occasions football's rules gain pre-eminence and which occasions that football bows to global political realities. The Bosman ruling was an example of the latter and the current leak would be typical of the former.
In an attempt to address these issues succinctly, we'll take them in turn. Lets firstly look at football. Now haven't we got an amateur hierarchy to achieve underperformance without FIFA's external influences? - Eire are self-harming enough without further handicaps being placed on their progress. And, Good Friday Agreement or not, the selection of players on the island has always been a two-way process. Numerous catholics have played for the North and some, like Neil Lennon, have suffered for doing so while Jack Charlton's successful Eire team was a 50-50 split between the two religious backgrounds. Usually in law, there is precedence to guide the lawmakers but football, under the tutelage of FIFA, is arbitrary in its rulings to an extent where logic packed up its bags and went home ages ago. There is scarcely a second or third tier national team worldwide that doesn't possess some Brazilinho purporting to actually be a Muhammad or whatever. And there are numerous parallel examples - Klose and Podolski were both born in Poland but play for Germany; the French national team pillages former African colonies for players; the number of Argentinians to have discovered Italian grandparents continues unabated; England's squad is currently over 50% of Jamaican and/or Irish descent and looking slightly further back, John Barnes wasn't born in Surrey's version of Kingston. The recent spat between Ferguson and Wenger merely emphasises the spectrum of opinion. Ferguson wants restrictions, quotas, protectionism in the name of little-islander mentality whereas Wenger believes in meritocracy and freedom of movement. Wider society should take note of the benefits of Wenger's more enlightened "open source" approach to business.
The messy history of the thirty two counties inevitably has produced some warped realities on the ground - Derry City's participation in the Irish Premier League being only the most glaring example of political expedience. And Derry City are key to this issue. What is Derry if it is not an enclave within the six counties? Essentially, we are dealing with the politics of occupied territories here and it is not an area where FIFA should tread. Nationalism is an anachronism. Football should be moving beyond such petty nonsense and focus instead on the corruption, illegal gambling, player trafficking and drug abuse that defines the sport. A simple solution to the Irish impasse would be to allow players to select which of the two countries to represent or, preferably, go the whole hog, in a rugby union stylee, and create a united team. This would provide the "country" with more clout within both FIFA and UEFA which will improve qualification chances and provide a positive role model to the troubled territories of the North overall. With the correct political will, humans are quite able to solve community issues without destabilisation from afar. Focus should be given to the social improvements created by the Setanta Cup which features teams from both sides of the border rather than rooting out divisive constructs. A final point to be made with regard to the footballing aspect of this issue is that the non-appliance of internal rulings is the norm rather than the exception when it comes to the great game. Think bungs, third party arrangements, players and officials having links to betting organisations and institutionalised corruption. A particularly silly loophole popped up just this last week. No player is allowed to play for two Champions League sides in the same season. Fair dinkum, it stops glory hunters. Why does the same ruling not apply to managers as Koeman's move from PSV to Valencia has spotlighted? Yet more arbitrariness...
The recent history of sport is littered with thousands of such examples of the re-nationalisation of individuals to the benefit of the major global sporting powers. East African runners, East European weightlifters and South Asian cricketers utilise this wormhole of meritocratic recognition to achieve their sporting aims albeit for the benefit of Team USA or Team GB rather than the island of Jamaica or wherever. It is time for sport to be separated from nationalism and regionalism and placed firmly into the sector in which it most belongs - entertainment. Drugged up and naturalised sportspeople are not indicative of the primacy of their adopted nation. It is a peculiar irony that results in xenophobes supporting the very individuals who are the targets of their racism so long as it is for the greater glory (sic) of the homeland.
Politically, Blair's legacy has been a carve-up to the benefit of the mafiosi of both sides at Stormont - where are John Hume and David Trimble now? This is volatile to say the least. Football on the island of Ireland is in a position to lead society and, hopefully, politicians to a more inclusive future. Much was made recently of the absence of many Black players from the winning South African World Cup winning rugby union team. And, yet, this perceived racism is not what I saw in those winning celebrations. Team South Africa were a multiracial outfit if you looked at the squad and support staff overall. Neither the gusto with which the white players sang "Nkosi sikelel' iAfrika" (originally, an ANC act of defiance to apartheid, after all) nor the genuine warmth and affection between the team members and South African President Thabo Mbeki were suggestive of anything other than a microcosm of racial harmony creating global success. This is not to suggest that South Africa is a united land where inequalities based on race matter no more. But it is a prime example of the benefits of the truth and reconciliation and trust and diplomacy and dialogue approach undertaken post-apartheid that a team is able to rise above societal division to win together as a group of people.
Ireland should take note. We can all harp back to our clannish singing and culture but it is one island and everybody has to get along together. Or, of course, staying stuck in the middle ages of social living is another option.
Finally and far more importantly, there can only be two candidates to replace the hapless Steve Staunton as manager of Eire. Either drag Big Jack out of whichever river (or pub) he is immersing himself in or give the job to Shane MacGowan. To be sure, Eire would not qualify for anything but what's new? And at least it would be a laugh...
NB. Since writing this post, FIFA has announced a review of the FAI/IAF decision and, hopefully, a compromise may be diplomatically achieved.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Wednesday, 7 November 2007
England's Number One Is A Yanqui
Another list today...
At the end of October, we update and analyse our longer term databases. Obviously, the vast majority of these projects are undertaken for the purpose of proprietary competitive advantage but some of the more subjective analyses will be shared over the next few weeks.
Some playing positions are more critical than others - I can't remember too many matches where I was worrying who the right-sided defender was to be but we check for goalkeeping changes on each and every match that we analyse. A change in goalkeeper is a destabilising parameter but, equally, the rating of the keeper is key. Due to the relative importance of the goalie within a team, a poor operator is able to significantly undermine what otherwise would have been a reasonably successful team.
The list below is our Trading Team's dissection of the acrobatic from the flat-footed in the Premiership. There are some major differences of opinion. One individual (who shall be nameless) believes Hahnemann to have the reflexes of a cat. This might be so but it is of minimal significance if the man has not even mastered the most basic rudiments of hand-eye coordination. The ratings are for this season alone, are highly subjective, have no correlation with which two teams have cost us money this season and include the reserve goalkeepers who appear frequently.
Taking it from the top...
1. Friedel - Consistently very good. Only two teams outside the Big 4 are conceding less than one goal per game on average and Rovers are only bettered by the stingy Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea.
2. James - Apart from the non-performance at The Emirates, James has been in strikingly good form for the upwardly mobile Pompey.
3. Green - Great reflexes and a first rate shot-stopper - the only reason West Ham are the other Premiership side conceding less than one per match. Being a hobbit, he tends to struggle on crosses.
4. Cech - Although the data says otherwise, we don't find the big Czech Cech as imposing as he was prior to the attempted decapitation at the Madejski last season. Obviously this has something to do with John Terry choosing to pass the majority of his year spending his wages rather than earning them but the exuding confidence is no more.
5. Carson - We'd still have him in goal for England but Villa's defence doesn't do watertight and the man gets exposed from time to time... If Benitez knew what he was doing, he'd have him in goal at Anfield.
6. Cudicini - Unlucky.
7. Given - Not totally convinced personally but, then again, that is the Newcastle or Eire defence that he's standing behind.
8. Van der Sar - When Vidic plays, the Dutchman looks impeccable. When he is reliant on Ferdinand, not so...
9. Reina - Not quite good enough but, being Spanish, it doesn't matter.
10. Hart - The best of the triumvirate at the City. Schmeichel is out of his depth and Isaksson is unfortunate not to be given a proper run in the team.
11 - 16. Taylor, Howard, Niemi, Gordon and Kirkland (in no particular order).
17. Robinson - Living proof that it is as difficult to catch a football in the glare of the paparazzi as it is to drive a Mercedes. Must potentially be up for a Canizares-esque dropping-a-bottle-of-aftershave-on-his-foot sort of moment before the year is out.
18. Lehmann and Almunia - Proof, if it were needed, that Wenger can't always judge a keeper. How good will Arsenal be when they eventually realise that Fabianski should be between the posts - a far preferable choice to Mr Peroxide (blonde hair/dark stubble?) or Mr Personality Disorder?
19. Jaaskelainen - Overrated.
20. Schwarzer - Ditto. And past it...
21. Bywater - Of course, he might be another Lev Yashin but that is the Derby team walking out with him. Personally, I have a very strong inclination that he is not over-endowed in the talent department.
22. Hahnemann - Federici must be a nightmare in order for the American to keep his place in Reading's Duberry-inspired relegation machine. Has Coppell lost the plot?
The number of good quality English goalkeepers undermines the constant chatter on the terraces and in the tabloids relating to the issues at the back for the national team. Goalkeepers require constant monitoring both within a club and from an analytical viewpoint. So much of football is played between the ears and this particularly applies to the psyche of the keeper - in the olden days, the majority of teams used to start a match by passing the ball back to the goalie to give him "a feel of the ball". Well, its round and made of leather, mate. The point presumably being that once a goalkeeper had successfully intercepted the back pass, his confidence would soar resulting in an unbeatable performance. All strategic managers are aware of the psychological cycles of their keepers. Alternation in the goalkeeping position should be proactive rather than reactive with the individual players being involved in the discussions and the reasoning. A prime example to emphasise this point is the seemingly annual introduction of a new Premiership football. This new ball which, in marketing hype, is "the best ball ever" is, more accurately, a merchandising input to the income account of Nike. But this constant switching between footballs has a major impact on keepers. All goalies have their own unique array of strengths and weaknesses with regard to their chosen profession. Factors such as profiling their eyesight are necessary to assess how a given keeper will respond to the introduction of a different ball. For example, a keeper whose long vision is strong but near vision weak is going to find a ball that moves in the air like a Shane Warne wrong'un a bit problematic, to say the least.
The monitoring of goalkeepers at the start of all football competitions is a critical edge as the triumph/ disaster/ imposter thing means that no other player on the pitch does volatility quite like a keeper.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
At the end of October, we update and analyse our longer term databases. Obviously, the vast majority of these projects are undertaken for the purpose of proprietary competitive advantage but some of the more subjective analyses will be shared over the next few weeks.
Some playing positions are more critical than others - I can't remember too many matches where I was worrying who the right-sided defender was to be but we check for goalkeeping changes on each and every match that we analyse. A change in goalkeeper is a destabilising parameter but, equally, the rating of the keeper is key. Due to the relative importance of the goalie within a team, a poor operator is able to significantly undermine what otherwise would have been a reasonably successful team.
The list below is our Trading Team's dissection of the acrobatic from the flat-footed in the Premiership. There are some major differences of opinion. One individual (who shall be nameless) believes Hahnemann to have the reflexes of a cat. This might be so but it is of minimal significance if the man has not even mastered the most basic rudiments of hand-eye coordination. The ratings are for this season alone, are highly subjective, have no correlation with which two teams have cost us money this season and include the reserve goalkeepers who appear frequently.
Taking it from the top...
1. Friedel - Consistently very good. Only two teams outside the Big 4 are conceding less than one goal per game on average and Rovers are only bettered by the stingy Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea.
2. James - Apart from the non-performance at The Emirates, James has been in strikingly good form for the upwardly mobile Pompey.
3. Green - Great reflexes and a first rate shot-stopper - the only reason West Ham are the other Premiership side conceding less than one per match. Being a hobbit, he tends to struggle on crosses.
4. Cech - Although the data says otherwise, we don't find the big Czech Cech as imposing as he was prior to the attempted decapitation at the Madejski last season. Obviously this has something to do with John Terry choosing to pass the majority of his year spending his wages rather than earning them but the exuding confidence is no more.
5. Carson - We'd still have him in goal for England but Villa's defence doesn't do watertight and the man gets exposed from time to time... If Benitez knew what he was doing, he'd have him in goal at Anfield.
6. Cudicini - Unlucky.
7. Given - Not totally convinced personally but, then again, that is the Newcastle or Eire defence that he's standing behind.
8. Van der Sar - When Vidic plays, the Dutchman looks impeccable. When he is reliant on Ferdinand, not so...
9. Reina - Not quite good enough but, being Spanish, it doesn't matter.
10. Hart - The best of the triumvirate at the City. Schmeichel is out of his depth and Isaksson is unfortunate not to be given a proper run in the team.
11 - 16. Taylor, Howard, Niemi, Gordon and Kirkland (in no particular order).
17. Robinson - Living proof that it is as difficult to catch a football in the glare of the paparazzi as it is to drive a Mercedes. Must potentially be up for a Canizares-esque dropping-a-bottle-of-aftershave-on-his-foot sort of moment before the year is out.
18. Lehmann and Almunia - Proof, if it were needed, that Wenger can't always judge a keeper. How good will Arsenal be when they eventually realise that Fabianski should be between the posts - a far preferable choice to Mr Peroxide (blonde hair/dark stubble?) or Mr Personality Disorder?
19. Jaaskelainen - Overrated.
20. Schwarzer - Ditto. And past it...
21. Bywater - Of course, he might be another Lev Yashin but that is the Derby team walking out with him. Personally, I have a very strong inclination that he is not over-endowed in the talent department.
22. Hahnemann - Federici must be a nightmare in order for the American to keep his place in Reading's Duberry-inspired relegation machine. Has Coppell lost the plot?
The number of good quality English goalkeepers undermines the constant chatter on the terraces and in the tabloids relating to the issues at the back for the national team. Goalkeepers require constant monitoring both within a club and from an analytical viewpoint. So much of football is played between the ears and this particularly applies to the psyche of the keeper - in the olden days, the majority of teams used to start a match by passing the ball back to the goalie to give him "a feel of the ball". Well, its round and made of leather, mate. The point presumably being that once a goalkeeper had successfully intercepted the back pass, his confidence would soar resulting in an unbeatable performance. All strategic managers are aware of the psychological cycles of their keepers. Alternation in the goalkeeping position should be proactive rather than reactive with the individual players being involved in the discussions and the reasoning. A prime example to emphasise this point is the seemingly annual introduction of a new Premiership football. This new ball which, in marketing hype, is "the best ball ever" is, more accurately, a merchandising input to the income account of Nike. But this constant switching between footballs has a major impact on keepers. All goalies have their own unique array of strengths and weaknesses with regard to their chosen profession. Factors such as profiling their eyesight are necessary to assess how a given keeper will respond to the introduction of a different ball. For example, a keeper whose long vision is strong but near vision weak is going to find a ball that moves in the air like a Shane Warne wrong'un a bit problematic, to say the least.
The monitoring of goalkeepers at the start of all football competitions is a critical edge as the triumph/ disaster/ imposter thing means that no other player on the pitch does volatility quite like a keeper.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Monday, 5 November 2007
The Power Lobbies And Their Self-Serving Biases
Spectacular society even managed to mess up the rare good thing that is an English football match that is competitive, skillful, entertaining, meaningful and dramatic. Betting market influence on Saturday's 1 billion audience extravaganza was minimal in a meritocratic event yet Ferguson and Wenger decided that the beauty of what had gone before should be tarnished by a nonsensical war of words regarding the alleged bias of referee Howard Webb. If you accidentally produce a proper match reasonably well officiated, celebrate it - these things are increasingly unusual.
Over in Italy, an "independent" report has shown that Juventus and Milan are the least favoured teams this year in Serie A. Now, I'm not personally trading the Scudetto this season and I don't have the fundamentals database to hand but I would think that the likelihood of this conclusion even approaching the actual reality is minimal.
The utilisation of selected truths and economies of authenticity in data will continue to become ever increasingly the norm when the major footballing organisations, entities and clubs distort reality to spin out their proprietary agendas for the windows ahead. As a consequence, the press conferences and interviews are largely background noise although body language is often revealing.
So who is being favoured in the Premiership? The table below lists the refereeing biases for or against the teams over last season and the start of the current campaign (the promoted clubs are excluded). The index is based on the ratings of our Trading Team and our proprietary match databases for the period up to the end of October.
1. Newcastle 72 - Most favoured and still shit. Would be playing Scunthorpe in a meritocracy.
2. Manchester City and Liverpool 63
4. Arsenal 62 - Despite the endurances in officialdom that blighted the start of last season, Wenger's men have no room for complaint. Currently, that would be...
5. Manchester United 58 - Ferguson shouldn't be moaning about a top five rating although he is understood to prefer "most-favoured-team" status.
6. Tottenham 56
7. Middlesboro 52
8. Blackburn and Portsmouth 50
10. West Ham United 48
11. Chelsea and Everton 45 - The only one of the Big 4 with any real grievances in totalisation over the last season and a quarter. Time for Roman to brandish the cheque book, we reckon...
13. Aston Villa 44
14. Reading 41
15. Bolton 38
16. Fulham 33
17. Wigan 25 - This should be attached to the CV's of Jewell and Hutchings.
Obviously, these are highly generalised ratings for the purposes of fun and debate but, unlike the utterances of the likes of Wenger, Ferguson and the Italian giants, they are an honest attempt to address the biases currently in existence in the Premiership.
High level analyses and consultancies are the projects to be sought when the blandness of the media and the background noise are so deafening.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Over in Italy, an "independent" report has shown that Juventus and Milan are the least favoured teams this year in Serie A. Now, I'm not personally trading the Scudetto this season and I don't have the fundamentals database to hand but I would think that the likelihood of this conclusion even approaching the actual reality is minimal.
The utilisation of selected truths and economies of authenticity in data will continue to become ever increasingly the norm when the major footballing organisations, entities and clubs distort reality to spin out their proprietary agendas for the windows ahead. As a consequence, the press conferences and interviews are largely background noise although body language is often revealing.
So who is being favoured in the Premiership? The table below lists the refereeing biases for or against the teams over last season and the start of the current campaign (the promoted clubs are excluded). The index is based on the ratings of our Trading Team and our proprietary match databases for the period up to the end of October.
1. Newcastle 72 - Most favoured and still shit. Would be playing Scunthorpe in a meritocracy.
2. Manchester City and Liverpool 63
4. Arsenal 62 - Despite the endurances in officialdom that blighted the start of last season, Wenger's men have no room for complaint. Currently, that would be...
5. Manchester United 58 - Ferguson shouldn't be moaning about a top five rating although he is understood to prefer "most-favoured-team" status.
6. Tottenham 56
7. Middlesboro 52
8. Blackburn and Portsmouth 50
10. West Ham United 48
11. Chelsea and Everton 45 - The only one of the Big 4 with any real grievances in totalisation over the last season and a quarter. Time for Roman to brandish the cheque book, we reckon...
13. Aston Villa 44
14. Reading 41
15. Bolton 38
16. Fulham 33
17. Wigan 25 - This should be attached to the CV's of Jewell and Hutchings.
Obviously, these are highly generalised ratings for the purposes of fun and debate but, unlike the utterances of the likes of Wenger, Ferguson and the Italian giants, they are an honest attempt to address the biases currently in existence in the Premiership.
High level analyses and consultancies are the projects to be sought when the blandness of the media and the background noise are so deafening.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
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