It is an important aspect of confronting the corruption endemic in English football to demonstrate how other countries deal assertively with match manipulation by the participants (for example, see http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/absolute-power-corrupts-absolutely-4.html).
Reuters reports that "the Bulgarian Football Union (BFU) has banned two referees for life and suspended three others for a year for making mistakes in premier league matches". And Romania's Central Referees Commission (CCA) banned a referee and an assistant referee following two separate incidents at the weekend in the matches at Otelul Galati and Steaua Bucuresti.
The statement by CCA President Gheorghe Constantin is one that I cannot imagine being replicated by duplicitous Keith Hackett and his team of merry manipulators -"Salomir and Gheorghe's serious mistakes changed the results of the matches and made the clubs angry. Both are banned for an undetermined period."
A similar structure in the Premiership and the League Cup Final last weekend would have resulted in open-ended bans for Webb, Bennett, Poll, Wiley, Walton, Mason plus several members of the Portsmouth operation for complicit behaviour.
As a Romanian colleague once said "in Romania, it is called corruption; in Italy, the mafia; and in England, the system"...
Tuesday, 27 February 2007
Monday, 26 February 2007
Spectacular Society Shakespearean Tragedy
John Terry and Arjen Robben's fake injuries in the Porto agreed draw; Bellamy and Riise's supposed altercation; Bellamy's golfswing goal celebration; Gooners reserves and Chelsea millionaires in their pseudo-brawl; Robbie Keane's sending off; Alan Wiley's biased performance refereeing Wigan v Newcastle; Bennett's opening and match settling penalty when he virtually suggested that Gerrard should dive to the ground; Andy Johnson's pirouette; Portsmouth's market positioning and David James comedy of errors plus attempts at creative theatrics; Lille marching off the pitch; Wenger and Mourinho camping it up big style in the "war of words" pre-final; Ferguson complaining about intimidation; Coleman dissing Walton...
This is nothing but theatre.
"Power is only too happy to make football bear a diabolical responsibility for stupefying the masses" - Jean Baudrillard.
Then there is Páirc an Chrócaigh and Hill 16 and the Easter Uprising and the pre-match tears and 43-13 after politely applauding the anthem of the crown - one of those rare occasions where a dose of nationalism is not only valid but compulsory. And there were Celtic's two last gasp goals... Just totally fucking brilliant and uplifting sport.
There's a conclusion to this post somewhere but I've just been on a 50 mile cycle ride and it was blowing a hooly and I'm not really focusing...
This is nothing but theatre.
"Power is only too happy to make football bear a diabolical responsibility for stupefying the masses" - Jean Baudrillard.
Then there is Páirc an Chrócaigh and Hill 16 and the Easter Uprising and the pre-match tears and 43-13 after politely applauding the anthem of the crown - one of those rare occasions where a dose of nationalism is not only valid but compulsory. And there were Celtic's two last gasp goals... Just totally fucking brilliant and uplifting sport.
There's a conclusion to this post somewhere but I've just been on a 50 mile cycle ride and it was blowing a hooly and I'm not really focusing...
Saturday, 24 February 2007
Behavioural Economics - 4) Cognitive Psychology
In the final post of our mini-series of articles outlining the different behaviouralist schools and their impact upon the markets, we address Cognitive Psychology.
1) Regret Theory - People tend to avoid actions that confirm mistakes.
2) Assimilation Error - Traders misjudge information to make it appear confirmatory of historical behaviour.
3) Hindsight Bias - There is a tendency to exaggerate the probability that a past series of events could have been predicted.
4) Regret Theory - Avoidance of activities that confirm previous mistakes.
5) Disjunction - One avoids making trading decisions until some entirely irrelevant future information appears.
6) Social Comparison - Utilising external behaviourisms as an information source about disciplines that one finds difficulty in interpreting.
7) Overconfidence - Traders overestimate their ability to reach correct trading decisions.
8) Cognitive Dissonance - The avoidance of information that undermines our assumptions.
9) Touchy-Feely Syndrome - The overvaluation of things that we have personally chosen.
10) Confirmatory Bias - Decisions being biased by what one wishes to believe.
11) Selective Perception - Treating information in a manner than confirms our attitudes.
To model the psychological mechanisms that influence the dynamics of financial markets, traders are required to combine all aspects of the different behavioural schools to determine how themselves and other market operators react to real-time realities. Sophisticated modelling yields profit from market inefficiencies.
1) Regret Theory - People tend to avoid actions that confirm mistakes.
2) Assimilation Error - Traders misjudge information to make it appear confirmatory of historical behaviour.
3) Hindsight Bias - There is a tendency to exaggerate the probability that a past series of events could have been predicted.
4) Regret Theory - Avoidance of activities that confirm previous mistakes.
5) Disjunction - One avoids making trading decisions until some entirely irrelevant future information appears.
6) Social Comparison - Utilising external behaviourisms as an information source about disciplines that one finds difficulty in interpreting.
7) Overconfidence - Traders overestimate their ability to reach correct trading decisions.
8) Cognitive Dissonance - The avoidance of information that undermines our assumptions.
9) Touchy-Feely Syndrome - The overvaluation of things that we have personally chosen.
10) Confirmatory Bias - Decisions being biased by what one wishes to believe.
11) Selective Perception - Treating information in a manner than confirms our attitudes.
To model the psychological mechanisms that influence the dynamics of financial markets, traders are required to combine all aspects of the different behavioural schools to determine how themselves and other market operators react to real-time realities. Sophisticated modelling yields profit from market inefficiencies.
Friday, 23 February 2007
Par 4 Or Par For The Course?
Spectacular Society continues to toy with the aftermath of the Barcelona match against Liverpool in the Champions League. We pointed out in a previous post that there was rampant media disinformation on this event (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/spectacular-society-and-market.html).
William Hill's are claiming that they lost £50,000 after a client placed £500 at 100/1 that Bellamy would score and perform a fake golf swing in celebration which, of course, the cheeky little chappy did.
This is a standard piece of marketing by the Leeds-based bookmaker OR a slick piece of trading by Bellamy or those close to him. Personally, I would prefer to think it was the latter option as nobody of consequence lost anything on a nice little scam.
Unfortunately, experience suggests the former to be the most likely reality. Most leading bookmakers put out press releases "celebrating" the occasions where, allegedly, they have been fleeced or outmanoeuvred by punters. These same bookmakers do not mention the major losses experienced by leisure punters in their marketing/PR stunts and, for good measure, do not allow winning accounts.
So even if it is true that Mr X from Malta won $22,000 playing blackjack, you can guarantee that Mr X is losing similar amounts on a regular basis...
William Hill's are claiming that they lost £50,000 after a client placed £500 at 100/1 that Bellamy would score and perform a fake golf swing in celebration which, of course, the cheeky little chappy did.
This is a standard piece of marketing by the Leeds-based bookmaker OR a slick piece of trading by Bellamy or those close to him. Personally, I would prefer to think it was the latter option as nobody of consequence lost anything on a nice little scam.
Unfortunately, experience suggests the former to be the most likely reality. Most leading bookmakers put out press releases "celebrating" the occasions where, allegedly, they have been fleeced or outmanoeuvred by punters. These same bookmakers do not mention the major losses experienced by leisure punters in their marketing/PR stunts and, for good measure, do not allow winning accounts.
So even if it is true that Mr X from Malta won $22,000 playing blackjack, you can guarantee that Mr X is losing similar amounts on a regular basis...
Bookies in Total Control of Sunday's Markets
Sunday sees the League Cup Final between Chelsea and Arsenal.
Such days yield extra turnover on the British football betting markets and the layers seek to control the lower level events in order to maximise both their takings on the day as well as their eventual return to shareholders. A similar process exists in horseracing - the minor meetings concurrent with high profile meetings eg Ascot or Cheltenham are heavily manipulated and controlled by the betting industry.
There are three other Premiership matches on Sunday. Portsmouth are in control of their event against Blackburn Rovers as the Lancastrians are in the middle of a run of two UEFA Cup matches against Leverkusen, 2 FA Cup ties against Arsenal and a derby against Bolton. We'll wait and see Portsmouth's betting market activity prior to trading on this particular event. But leisure punters beware - this match is hot.
As are both the other games...
The two most volatile officials in the Premiership are Poll and Wiley and the officials for Spurs v Bolton and Wigan v Newcastle are, you guessed it, Poll and Wiley. If you are interested in betting on the Premiership this weekend, we would suggest Saturday being the preferable day.
Such days yield extra turnover on the British football betting markets and the layers seek to control the lower level events in order to maximise both their takings on the day as well as their eventual return to shareholders. A similar process exists in horseracing - the minor meetings concurrent with high profile meetings eg Ascot or Cheltenham are heavily manipulated and controlled by the betting industry.
There are three other Premiership matches on Sunday. Portsmouth are in control of their event against Blackburn Rovers as the Lancastrians are in the middle of a run of two UEFA Cup matches against Leverkusen, 2 FA Cup ties against Arsenal and a derby against Bolton. We'll wait and see Portsmouth's betting market activity prior to trading on this particular event. But leisure punters beware - this match is hot.
As are both the other games...
The two most volatile officials in the Premiership are Poll and Wiley and the officials for Spurs v Bolton and Wigan v Newcastle are, you guessed it, Poll and Wiley. If you are interested in betting on the Premiership this weekend, we would suggest Saturday being the preferable day.
Wednesday, 21 February 2007
Spectacular Society and Market Disinformation?
The Wednesday Champions League markets are very entertaining - none more so than the battle between the last two winners of the competition.
The Liverpudlians are one of the few Premiership teams that we are unable to access for useful inside knowledge but we remain suspicious about the reality of the Bellamy versus Riise "disinformation". Most media outlets have pulled their reporting of the original story which is revealing in itself. The layers knew that they would be targeted on this match with Liverpool enjoying a holiday break in Portugal while the Catalans faced Valencia in a critical La Liga event. The global gamble on the Scousers has been significant in it's volume.
Just an educated guess, but given the history of Benitez, we reckon that Bellamy and Riise will perform suitably down the Barca right hand wing - spectacular society bluff...
This is not necessarily suggestive of our own market position as we are not willing to disclose our trading angles on this match - it is merely something to bear in mind if you are thinking of getting involved or are already involved in this event.
The battle between the winners three years ago and the winners this year (??) is also a very intriguing betting event. There were volumes of liquidity on Porto in the early Asian exchanges and, despite some resistance in the days leading up to the match, the global gamble has continued unabated. We have taken a major view on this game as Dietrological clients will appreciate - some very hot money if you are looking in the correct places...
PS Post Match Update - Are we cool or are we cool??!! We were on Liverpool big style and Bellamy and Riise scored for our bank balances. The biggest impact on tonight's game was studiously avoided in the press - Rijkaard's imminent departure from Catalunya.
And as for the agreed draw between Chelsea and one of their reserve teams, I've seen more competitiveness at a pacifist tiddlywinks tournament...
Loads of money for Dietrological :)
The Liverpudlians are one of the few Premiership teams that we are unable to access for useful inside knowledge but we remain suspicious about the reality of the Bellamy versus Riise "disinformation". Most media outlets have pulled their reporting of the original story which is revealing in itself. The layers knew that they would be targeted on this match with Liverpool enjoying a holiday break in Portugal while the Catalans faced Valencia in a critical La Liga event. The global gamble on the Scousers has been significant in it's volume.
Just an educated guess, but given the history of Benitez, we reckon that Bellamy and Riise will perform suitably down the Barca right hand wing - spectacular society bluff...
This is not necessarily suggestive of our own market position as we are not willing to disclose our trading angles on this match - it is merely something to bear in mind if you are thinking of getting involved or are already involved in this event.
The battle between the winners three years ago and the winners this year (??) is also a very intriguing betting event. There were volumes of liquidity on Porto in the early Asian exchanges and, despite some resistance in the days leading up to the match, the global gamble has continued unabated. We have taken a major view on this game as Dietrological clients will appreciate - some very hot money if you are looking in the correct places...
PS Post Match Update - Are we cool or are we cool??!! We were on Liverpool big style and Bellamy and Riise scored for our bank balances. The biggest impact on tonight's game was studiously avoided in the press - Rijkaard's imminent departure from Catalunya.
And as for the agreed draw between Chelsea and one of their reserve teams, I've seen more competitiveness at a pacifist tiddlywinks tournament...
Loads of money for Dietrological :)
Tuesday, 20 February 2007
Sussed!
Last week, we put together a post regarding the immediate impacts of Platini's takeover of UEFA (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/platini-practises-what-he-preaches.html).
We were awaiting the announcement of this week's Champions League officials to clarify our view of any potential structural adjustments. We've now solved it and we're trading it. We are always quick off the mark due to our holistic sector overview.
Only Mike Riley of the English officials has been selected for the Champions League 1/8 Final 1st Leg matches and, by some distance, Riley is the most kosher of the English UEFA roster. Only 4 of the most recent 103 UEFA Cup and Champions Leagues have utilised English Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) referees and two of those events were dead rubbers. The Italian and Russian refs also continue to be blanked - neither country has been given any appointments since Platini's election.
At least UEFA recognises the manipulative influence of Bennett, Webb and Poll and suitably sidelines them.
We look forward without much optimism to the PGMOB becoming as virtuous as UEFA.
PS Post Match Update - Mike Riley produces 11 yellow cards in Roma v Lyon - a Champions League record. The PGMOB officials just won't let it lie...
We were awaiting the announcement of this week's Champions League officials to clarify our view of any potential structural adjustments. We've now solved it and we're trading it. We are always quick off the mark due to our holistic sector overview.
Only Mike Riley of the English officials has been selected for the Champions League 1/8 Final 1st Leg matches and, by some distance, Riley is the most kosher of the English UEFA roster. Only 4 of the most recent 103 UEFA Cup and Champions Leagues have utilised English Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) referees and two of those events were dead rubbers. The Italian and Russian refs also continue to be blanked - neither country has been given any appointments since Platini's election.
At least UEFA recognises the manipulative influence of Bennett, Webb and Poll and suitably sidelines them.
We look forward without much optimism to the PGMOB becoming as virtuous as UEFA.
PS Post Match Update - Mike Riley produces 11 yellow cards in Roma v Lyon - a Champions League record. The PGMOB officials just won't let it lie...
Owners Demonstration of True Colours
Manchester United, with prompting by the Glazers, are to play a pre-season friendly in the South East Asian gambling haven of Macau. The important event that they will be celebrating is the opening of the world's largest casino - the Venetian Macau.
Liverpool (with a nudge from Hicks and Gillett), Portsmouth (thanks to Gaydamek) and Fulham (pushed by Al-Fayed) are to be the English teams in the Hong Kong pre-season televised tournament. Well, there's no chance of this being a fiddled event then.
With Chelsea's Kenyon spending an increasing amount of time in Asia, the Premiership teams with serious ownership are gearing up for their gambling nirvana.
Bizarrely but unsurprisingly, the clubs announcing a migration to Asia are the ones that are most likely to have their representatives seen at Victor Chandler's flagship Mayfair casino in London.
Previous tours and promotional activities by British teams in Asia have featured marketing and merchandising as their core focuses. But the pre-season Hong Kong event and footballing tours much more closely linked to the gambling industry are to be the norm in future.
Liverpool (with a nudge from Hicks and Gillett), Portsmouth (thanks to Gaydamek) and Fulham (pushed by Al-Fayed) are to be the English teams in the Hong Kong pre-season televised tournament. Well, there's no chance of this being a fiddled event then.
With Chelsea's Kenyon spending an increasing amount of time in Asia, the Premiership teams with serious ownership are gearing up for their gambling nirvana.
Bizarrely but unsurprisingly, the clubs announcing a migration to Asia are the ones that are most likely to have their representatives seen at Victor Chandler's flagship Mayfair casino in London.
Previous tours and promotional activities by British teams in Asia have featured marketing and merchandising as their core focuses. But the pre-season Hong Kong event and footballing tours much more closely linked to the gambling industry are to be the norm in future.
Behavioural Economics - 3) The Behaviourist School
The third in the short series of posts related to Psychology in the markets addresses the Behaviourist School.
There are a number of cutting edge contemporary angles that I am not willing to address in this post due to isolationist reasons but below are details of a couple of approaches by this school of thought.
1) Magical Thinking - Traders tend to believe that certain behaviour produces a required effect even when they are aware that there are no cause and effect linkages.
2) Prospect Theory - Operators have an irrational tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits compared to losses.
For further details on Behaviourism, we would advise that you check out the academic literature.
There are a number of cutting edge contemporary angles that I am not willing to address in this post due to isolationist reasons but below are details of a couple of approaches by this school of thought.
1) Magical Thinking - Traders tend to believe that certain behaviour produces a required effect even when they are aware that there are no cause and effect linkages.
2) Prospect Theory - Operators have an irrational tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits compared to losses.
For further details on Behaviourism, we would advise that you check out the academic literature.
Sunday, 18 February 2007
The Magic of the FA Cup Revisited
We hope that you heeded our advice and kept away from Saturday's FA Cup matches unless you were privy to inside info or proprietary analysis.
The FA Cup is an entirely manipulated tournament this year. The absence of Asian layers offering real liquidity until the latter stages of the competition allows the FA and the British bookies a free ride.
As a cup competition, the FA Cup is nowadays merely the equivalent of the Coppa Italia or the Copa Del Rey. Most top flight teams put out severely weakened sides including reserve goalkeepers and the trophy is not regarded in anything like the same strategic class as the Champions League and the Premiership. If it didn't suit the FA and the bookies to such an extent, the FA Cup should be merely a midweek reserves tournament as is the case in Spain and Italy.
Due to monopolistic control, the FA Cup is a big big earner for the major British bookies. We warned yesterday that the refereeing big boys were out en masse to achieve the Quarter Finals required once betting patterns had been taken into account.
Apart from the Chelsea victory that was a certainty, ALL of the other games were decided by key and incorrect refereeing decisions.
* Arsenal and Aliadiere were denied a late penalty by the perfectly placed Atkinson. Obviously the major gamble on Arsenal had absolutely nothing to do with his selective blindness. Why aren't officials asked to explain their decisions post-match - I would have liked to have heard Atkinson's reasoning. We made a pile on the game but only because we determined the fix.
* Man Utd were robbed of a perfectly good goal by Poll's assistant although by far the most entertaining bit of the match came when Plastic Paddy threw a wobbler in the staged conversation with Motson concerning referees only being allowed to officiate at one cup final. The cup is corrupt enough without allowing the key corrupters more than one opportunity to cheapen what is left of the heritage of the FA Cup.
* 'Boro were given a harsh penalty, the advantage of a sending off plus two Albion disallowed goals by an overly generous Webb and his team.
* Plymouth qualified thanks to Mike Dean's 2 hilarious penalties and a sending off (he still needed to deny Derby a penalty) to ensure the required geographical coverage for the Quarter Finals. It has been a feature of this year's competition that regional concerns have been taken on board. For example, there is a major effort to ensure a London presence in the first final at the new Wembley.
* Watford needed a Bennett overreaction to send off O'Callaghan in the first half plus the benefit of a disallowed Ipswich effort in the 2nd.
We would advise caution today too (particularly on the live Sky game between Fulham and Tottenham). We have major position on this match and, as usual in manipulated games, if you are not either in on the fix or a pro analyst, we suggest that you keep your cash in your pocket.
The FA Cup is an entirely manipulated tournament this year. The absence of Asian layers offering real liquidity until the latter stages of the competition allows the FA and the British bookies a free ride.
As a cup competition, the FA Cup is nowadays merely the equivalent of the Coppa Italia or the Copa Del Rey. Most top flight teams put out severely weakened sides including reserve goalkeepers and the trophy is not regarded in anything like the same strategic class as the Champions League and the Premiership. If it didn't suit the FA and the bookies to such an extent, the FA Cup should be merely a midweek reserves tournament as is the case in Spain and Italy.
Due to monopolistic control, the FA Cup is a big big earner for the major British bookies. We warned yesterday that the refereeing big boys were out en masse to achieve the Quarter Finals required once betting patterns had been taken into account.
Apart from the Chelsea victory that was a certainty, ALL of the other games were decided by key and incorrect refereeing decisions.
* Arsenal and Aliadiere were denied a late penalty by the perfectly placed Atkinson. Obviously the major gamble on Arsenal had absolutely nothing to do with his selective blindness. Why aren't officials asked to explain their decisions post-match - I would have liked to have heard Atkinson's reasoning. We made a pile on the game but only because we determined the fix.
* Man Utd were robbed of a perfectly good goal by Poll's assistant although by far the most entertaining bit of the match came when Plastic Paddy threw a wobbler in the staged conversation with Motson concerning referees only being allowed to officiate at one cup final. The cup is corrupt enough without allowing the key corrupters more than one opportunity to cheapen what is left of the heritage of the FA Cup.
* 'Boro were given a harsh penalty, the advantage of a sending off plus two Albion disallowed goals by an overly generous Webb and his team.
* Plymouth qualified thanks to Mike Dean's 2 hilarious penalties and a sending off (he still needed to deny Derby a penalty) to ensure the required geographical coverage for the Quarter Finals. It has been a feature of this year's competition that regional concerns have been taken on board. For example, there is a major effort to ensure a London presence in the first final at the new Wembley.
* Watford needed a Bennett overreaction to send off O'Callaghan in the first half plus the benefit of a disallowed Ipswich effort in the 2nd.
We would advise caution today too (particularly on the live Sky game between Fulham and Tottenham). We have major position on this match and, as usual in manipulated games, if you are not either in on the fix or a pro analyst, we suggest that you keep your cash in your pocket.
Saturday, 17 February 2007
FA Cup Fifth Round - Not A Good Betting Window
In an outburst of altruism, we have been keeping readers informed as to our ante-post index positions on the FA Cup this season.
As a brief update, we are maintaining our positions supportive of Chelsea and Middlesbrough and we are continuing with our recent opposition to Blackburn. Our brief flirtation with opposition to Arsenal only lasted for the duration of the first Bolton game. Riley is refereeing Preston versus Man City and we are consequently closing out our trade on the Mancunians. Additionally, we are with both Fulham and Tottenham and a trading decision will be made prior to kick off on this event.
There has been a major gamble on Arsenal which we don't support due to Atkinson officiating and a high probability of an agreed draw scenario due to adjacent key matches for both outfits.
Two key aspects of this weekend's FA Cup games are the adjacent Champions League games for Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd (additionally, Chelsea meet Arsenal in the League Cup Final next weekend) and the fact that a majority of the top tier (sic) referees are out in force (Poll, Styles, Webb, Bennett, Riley, Dean and Atkinson). The British bookmakers will be exerting considerable influence on the outcomes of the matches as Asia is partying for Chinese New Year.
Be very careful with your financial exposures.
PS Post Match Update - Atkinson denies Arsenal a certain penalty in a 20 minute game (the first 70 minutes were non-competitive) and the bookmaker's satchels are full to overflowing.
As a brief update, we are maintaining our positions supportive of Chelsea and Middlesbrough and we are continuing with our recent opposition to Blackburn. Our brief flirtation with opposition to Arsenal only lasted for the duration of the first Bolton game. Riley is refereeing Preston versus Man City and we are consequently closing out our trade on the Mancunians. Additionally, we are with both Fulham and Tottenham and a trading decision will be made prior to kick off on this event.
There has been a major gamble on Arsenal which we don't support due to Atkinson officiating and a high probability of an agreed draw scenario due to adjacent key matches for both outfits.
Two key aspects of this weekend's FA Cup games are the adjacent Champions League games for Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd (additionally, Chelsea meet Arsenal in the League Cup Final next weekend) and the fact that a majority of the top tier (sic) referees are out in force (Poll, Styles, Webb, Bennett, Riley, Dean and Atkinson). The British bookmakers will be exerting considerable influence on the outcomes of the matches as Asia is partying for Chinese New Year.
Be very careful with your financial exposures.
PS Post Match Update - Atkinson denies Arsenal a certain penalty in a 20 minute game (the first 70 minutes were non-competitive) and the bookmaker's satchels are full to overflowing.
Friday, 16 February 2007
新年快乐
A Happy New Year to our South East Asian colleagues and clients.
All my favourite cultures maintain a healthy work/life balance and the Chinese market makers and traders throughout the Far East put family, leisure and culture ahead of profit over the Chinese New Year period. Exactly unlike the British bookmakers over xmas and New Year, in fact.
We choose to work exclusively with Asians for a whole spectrum of reasons, the most important of which we outline below.
In the battleground that is the global football betting marketplace, we prefer to link with the territories that will eventually control the markets. Although there are windows where the Europeans are able to exert some semi-monopolistic dominance, we have no doubt as to how this particular market sector will strategically play out. As a Trading Team, we determinedly focus on the future developments in the football betting arena and Asia will win. We regard the reasonings behind this affirmation as part of our significant competitive advantage and we have no desire to go into any details in this place.
Trading and co-operating with the Chinese layers is like playing chess. European interaction is more like conkers... I would pitch myself head-to-head against any European operator with confidence. I could not make that same assertion with regard to Asia.
We prefer to link with the best.
新年快乐
All my favourite cultures maintain a healthy work/life balance and the Chinese market makers and traders throughout the Far East put family, leisure and culture ahead of profit over the Chinese New Year period. Exactly unlike the British bookmakers over xmas and New Year, in fact.
We choose to work exclusively with Asians for a whole spectrum of reasons, the most important of which we outline below.
In the battleground that is the global football betting marketplace, we prefer to link with the territories that will eventually control the markets. Although there are windows where the Europeans are able to exert some semi-monopolistic dominance, we have no doubt as to how this particular market sector will strategically play out. As a Trading Team, we determinedly focus on the future developments in the football betting arena and Asia will win. We regard the reasonings behind this affirmation as part of our significant competitive advantage and we have no desire to go into any details in this place.
Trading and co-operating with the Chinese layers is like playing chess. European interaction is more like conkers... I would pitch myself head-to-head against any European operator with confidence. I could not make that same assertion with regard to Asia.
We prefer to link with the best.
新年快乐
Thursday, 15 February 2007
Plastic Paddy Fiddles While Football Burns
Following the meeting between Keith Hackett of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) and BBC reporters and journalists late in January regarding criticism of match referees on BBC sports channels and productions, our traders have been monitoring the Beeb's output closely to determine which individuals (if any) have taken the bait.
Step forward Mark Lawrenson...
Now, I actually quite like Lawro's droll humour and his ability to morph into the required entertainment mode depending on the IQ of his co-commentator. The man is sharp (apart from his dress sense) and intelligent. But, unless he is taking Cynical Realism to new levels, he is going to have to develop a slightly more nuanced approach to his referee love-ins. His mild flirting with Mike Riley in the Man Utd/Portsmouth FA Cup tie was totally eclipsed by last night's ménage à trois with Guy Mowbray (commentator) and Chris Foy (referee) for the Bolton/Arsenal event.
Within the insider circles of the game - the institutions, the larger bookmakers, the authorities, the media, management, senior players, agents and in the boardrooms - there are effectively four strata of knowledge relating to the corruption that is endemic in English football. Some individuals are blindly unaware - these peripherals are akin to the nice local bobby. Then there are the people who are aware that something is going on but accommodate the structure as it pays for the mortgage and the kid's education - not great but fair enough...
The two top strata are the key problem areas and these are the strata upon which my Trading Team focus all of our attention.
Back to Lawro. There were eight contentious decisions in last night's Bolton versus Arsenal match. Bolton claimed 5 penalties - they were given none. Arsenal claimed 2 penalties and Brazilianed both of them over the bar. To kill the tie off near the end, Foy dismissed Bolton's Tal Ben-Haim. Without getting too far into the intricacies and probabilities relating to these eight decisions, the imbalance that all eight favoured Arsenal is surely some slight cause for concern. Not with Lawro. "Great refereeing!" he eulogised several times among other grovelling platitudes. It wasn't great refereeing at all. Foy evidently, subconsciously or not, was making key decisions favouring the Gooners - 8/0 differentials just don't happen. Slo-mo images showed several of the decisions to be patently incorrect but Lawro and Mowbray remained oblivious to how patently obvious their reporting shenanigans were to many of their viewers.
And this is a real problem area for the corrupt corporates who are taking over the game (and represent the top strata as mentioned above). The effective media output of the second and third strata in the power hierarchy is dependent on people like Shearer, Gray, Lineker, Keys, Lawrenson, Richardson, Childs etc. But, unlike other areas of society, football is in the blood of a massive grouping of people. From day one we were out there kicking balls - it defined the childhoods of 95% of my generation in Manchester and, undoubtedly, across most other cities and towns in Britain. When spectacular society bullshits the population on politics, finance, economics or business, they can convince. When they try it with football, forget it pal. The top strata are taking the piss out of a numerically large, sector-educated and, somewhat, disenfranchised (ie many of these individuals have been priced out of live games as football has moved "upmarket") grouping of people. Not content with destroying the spectacle of our really beautiful game, they also mistakenly believe that they can turn these disenfranchised supporters into armchair gambling addicts placing their Skybets on whoever Richard Keys and Andy Gray tell them to. Once again, forget it pal...
It simply is not possible to get beyond fooling some of the people for some of the time.
PS Some of our people are in Kerkyra getting the new offices sorted for launch of Dietrological Gold (we'll be putting out a relevant post in next couple of days). Next door is one of Corfu Town's finest restaurants so the morning shift were invited to watch all 8 decisions in the Bolton/Arsenal game in real-time without knowing the decisions of Foy. The consensus of six Corfiot waiters is 2 of Bolton's penalties should have been given; the sending off was valid; only the second Arsenal penalty was valid.
Obviously, this doesn't prove anything other than the key fact that these decisions were not finitely correct. There are probabilities and different shades of "correctness". Massive imbalance is statistically significant.
Finally, last night's match was great theatre but an appropriate final act would have fairly been a penalty shoot-out after a 3-3 draw. The creative rewriting of classics seldom works.
Step forward Mark Lawrenson...
Now, I actually quite like Lawro's droll humour and his ability to morph into the required entertainment mode depending on the IQ of his co-commentator. The man is sharp (apart from his dress sense) and intelligent. But, unless he is taking Cynical Realism to new levels, he is going to have to develop a slightly more nuanced approach to his referee love-ins. His mild flirting with Mike Riley in the Man Utd/Portsmouth FA Cup tie was totally eclipsed by last night's ménage à trois with Guy Mowbray (commentator) and Chris Foy (referee) for the Bolton/Arsenal event.
Within the insider circles of the game - the institutions, the larger bookmakers, the authorities, the media, management, senior players, agents and in the boardrooms - there are effectively four strata of knowledge relating to the corruption that is endemic in English football. Some individuals are blindly unaware - these peripherals are akin to the nice local bobby. Then there are the people who are aware that something is going on but accommodate the structure as it pays for the mortgage and the kid's education - not great but fair enough...
The two top strata are the key problem areas and these are the strata upon which my Trading Team focus all of our attention.
Back to Lawro. There were eight contentious decisions in last night's Bolton versus Arsenal match. Bolton claimed 5 penalties - they were given none. Arsenal claimed 2 penalties and Brazilianed both of them over the bar. To kill the tie off near the end, Foy dismissed Bolton's Tal Ben-Haim. Without getting too far into the intricacies and probabilities relating to these eight decisions, the imbalance that all eight favoured Arsenal is surely some slight cause for concern. Not with Lawro. "Great refereeing!" he eulogised several times among other grovelling platitudes. It wasn't great refereeing at all. Foy evidently, subconsciously or not, was making key decisions favouring the Gooners - 8/0 differentials just don't happen. Slo-mo images showed several of the decisions to be patently incorrect but Lawro and Mowbray remained oblivious to how patently obvious their reporting shenanigans were to many of their viewers.
And this is a real problem area for the corrupt corporates who are taking over the game (and represent the top strata as mentioned above). The effective media output of the second and third strata in the power hierarchy is dependent on people like Shearer, Gray, Lineker, Keys, Lawrenson, Richardson, Childs etc. But, unlike other areas of society, football is in the blood of a massive grouping of people. From day one we were out there kicking balls - it defined the childhoods of 95% of my generation in Manchester and, undoubtedly, across most other cities and towns in Britain. When spectacular society bullshits the population on politics, finance, economics or business, they can convince. When they try it with football, forget it pal. The top strata are taking the piss out of a numerically large, sector-educated and, somewhat, disenfranchised (ie many of these individuals have been priced out of live games as football has moved "upmarket") grouping of people. Not content with destroying the spectacle of our really beautiful game, they also mistakenly believe that they can turn these disenfranchised supporters into armchair gambling addicts placing their Skybets on whoever Richard Keys and Andy Gray tell them to. Once again, forget it pal...
It simply is not possible to get beyond fooling some of the people for some of the time.
PS Some of our people are in Kerkyra getting the new offices sorted for launch of Dietrological Gold (we'll be putting out a relevant post in next couple of days). Next door is one of Corfu Town's finest restaurants so the morning shift were invited to watch all 8 decisions in the Bolton/Arsenal game in real-time without knowing the decisions of Foy. The consensus of six Corfiot waiters is 2 of Bolton's penalties should have been given; the sending off was valid; only the second Arsenal penalty was valid.
Obviously, this doesn't prove anything other than the key fact that these decisions were not finitely correct. There are probabilities and different shades of "correctness". Massive imbalance is statistically significant.
Finally, last night's match was great theatre but an appropriate final act would have fairly been a penalty shoot-out after a 3-3 draw. The creative rewriting of classics seldom works.
Wednesday, 14 February 2007
Behavioural Economics - 2) Gestalt Theory
Continuing the posts on behavioural impacts on the markets (in aggregate and individually), we provide a brief description of the areas of Gestalt that effect financial and sports markets.
1) Knowledge Attitudes - We combine data into manageable structures and we have a propensity to analyse such structures individually.
2) Somatic Marker Theory - During the trading experience, one can experience threats that reinforce to induce panic.
3) Representativeness Effect - Market players tend to believe that current trends, cycles and patterns will continue into the future.
4) Persuasion Effect - We are more persuaded by a credible source than by a credible argument.
5) Adaptive Attitudes - People cluster with a combined attitude.
6) Self-Realizing Attitudes - Individuals perform a life role to make them feel that they have achieved something.
7) False Consensus Effect - Traders and leisure punters both tend to overestimate the number of other people that might agree with their perspective.
8) Self-Persuasion Effect - When spectacular society does not match with our beliefs, we change our attitudes rather than accepting the realities.
9) Ego-Defensive Attitudes - Our attitudes are adjusted in apparent confirmation of earlier decisions.
These factors have a complex dynamical impact on financial markets at all levels of operation. It is possible (indeed imperative) to model the behavioural aspects of markets - otherwise you can only perceive a portion of the big picture.
1) Knowledge Attitudes - We combine data into manageable structures and we have a propensity to analyse such structures individually.
2) Somatic Marker Theory - During the trading experience, one can experience threats that reinforce to induce panic.
3) Representativeness Effect - Market players tend to believe that current trends, cycles and patterns will continue into the future.
4) Persuasion Effect - We are more persuaded by a credible source than by a credible argument.
5) Adaptive Attitudes - People cluster with a combined attitude.
6) Self-Realizing Attitudes - Individuals perform a life role to make them feel that they have achieved something.
7) False Consensus Effect - Traders and leisure punters both tend to overestimate the number of other people that might agree with their perspective.
8) Self-Persuasion Effect - When spectacular society does not match with our beliefs, we change our attitudes rather than accepting the realities.
9) Ego-Defensive Attitudes - Our attitudes are adjusted in apparent confirmation of earlier decisions.
These factors have a complex dynamical impact on financial markets at all levels of operation. It is possible (indeed imperative) to model the behavioural aspects of markets - otherwise you can only perceive a portion of the big picture.
Tuesday, 13 February 2007
It's A Rip Off, Mr Williams!
Industry apologist Richard Williams at The Guardian states in his blog (which is consequential in it's lack of substance) - "questioning the morals of the Premiership's new breed of super-rich owners matters little to football fans".
It might well matter to them, Mr Williams, if they were aware that they are handing over £150 for their family to watch matches whose result has been determined before a ball has been kicked.
Which wormhole of privilege allows people like Williams to enjoy any journalistic status at all?
It might well matter to them, Mr Williams, if they were aware that they are handing over £150 for their family to watch matches whose result has been determined before a ball has been kicked.
Which wormhole of privilege allows people like Williams to enjoy any journalistic status at all?
Yo Eo
Nantes have sacked manager, Georges Eo, following the 5-2 home defeat by fellow relegation strugglers Valenciennes at the weekend.
The man made one major mistake. He signed Fabien "Casino" Barthez at the mid-season break.
As we have stated previously, operators like Barthez tend to perform to cement their place in the team before returning to type. Following two excellent performances in the 1-0 defeat at Troyes and the 1-0 victory over Nice, the slippery slaphead managed to let in 7 goals in the next two games (out of a total of twelve shots on target - which takes some doing!).
We advised when Barthez arrived that Nantes should be traded against in the French Relegation Markets and our view hasn't changed with the removal of Eo.
Expect a couple of Barthez "on form" matches under the new manager Michel Der Zakarian - with suitable irony, the next match is against Marseille (one of Barthez's former gambling locations).
A final (and open) question. How did it take Ferguson so long to determine the Barthez hidden agenda?
PS Post Match Update - Barthez was truly heroic as he kept the Marseille attack at bay throughout in a 0-0 draw.
The man made one major mistake. He signed Fabien "Casino" Barthez at the mid-season break.
As we have stated previously, operators like Barthez tend to perform to cement their place in the team before returning to type. Following two excellent performances in the 1-0 defeat at Troyes and the 1-0 victory over Nice, the slippery slaphead managed to let in 7 goals in the next two games (out of a total of twelve shots on target - which takes some doing!).
We advised when Barthez arrived that Nantes should be traded against in the French Relegation Markets and our view hasn't changed with the removal of Eo.
Expect a couple of Barthez "on form" matches under the new manager Michel Der Zakarian - with suitable irony, the next match is against Marseille (one of Barthez's former gambling locations).
A final (and open) question. How did it take Ferguson so long to determine the Barthez hidden agenda?
PS Post Match Update - Barthez was truly heroic as he kept the Marseille attack at bay throughout in a 0-0 draw.
Sunday, 11 February 2007
Behavioural Economics - 1) Psychoanalysis
The four main psychological schools are a foundation for understanding how individuals behave singularly or en masse when making decisions related to financial markets:
* Psychoanalytic School studies the unconscious and mental styles/disorders
* Behaviourist School observes the atmospheric conditions that impact upon an individual
* Cognitive Psychology focuses on how human thought controls behaviour
* Gestalt Theory addresses the creation of holistic mental images from fundamental data and information.
Over four posts, we intend to provide a brief overview of each of these schools. As we have stated previously, behavioural economics is a necessary adjunct to neoclassical economics as the market place is a function of both economic and psychological mechanisms. We start with Psychoanalysis.
There are seven types of Personality Disorder/Style that create issues for individuals involved in trading financial markets. It should be noted that these conditions may apply to all market participants from market makers and analysts to the uninformed and the leisure punter.
1) Paranoid Personality Disorder causes individuals to be overly concerned about being cheated by the system or in face-to-face interactions.
2) Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) leads to operators being hugely concerned with being judged as a success by colleagues, peer group and society.
3) Depressed Personality Disorder causes a person to be in a constant state of disappointment and worry irrespective of the external prompts that should determine their state of mind.
4) Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder leads to market participants overly addressing the minor details in the trading arena. Leads to an inability to see the wood for the trees.
5) Borderline/Histrionic Personality Disorder causes people to be in a constant state of flux with regard to decision making and, consequently, they show an inability to relax and ponder.
6) Avoidant Personality Disorder forces individuals to repeatedly address previous errors and mistakes in order to correct the process or even to take revenge on the system or person perceived to be responsible.
7) Psychopathic Personality Disorder (PPDs) - Requires the co-existence of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) and Anti-Social Personality Disorder (ASPD). PPDs impacts on the markets on both the individual and aggregate levels. In relation to the financial and football markets, the whole structure of the trading system is psychopathic. Monopolistic abuse is sought out as a business strategy. Manipulation and corruption are seen as competitive advantages. Cartelisation is creative networking at a corporate level. The markets are manipulated in a variety of simple and complex ways that allow advantageous trading conditions for insiders and market operators. The markets are not transparent and disinformation is rife. Insider trading is accommodated and, indeed, encouraged. The accounting and legal systems are swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Institutions, governments and regulatory bodies are co-opted into the power structures. The psychopathic operators seek control of their environment - they deal with absolutes and not probabilities. The less level the playing field, the better.
On an individual level, a PPDs greatest pleasure is to take control of the properties and possessions of others. Power is the prime focus.
PPDs on both a systemic and individual level is by far the dominant Psychoanalytical mode in the globalised marketplace.
* Psychoanalytic School studies the unconscious and mental styles/disorders
* Behaviourist School observes the atmospheric conditions that impact upon an individual
* Cognitive Psychology focuses on how human thought controls behaviour
* Gestalt Theory addresses the creation of holistic mental images from fundamental data and information.
Over four posts, we intend to provide a brief overview of each of these schools. As we have stated previously, behavioural economics is a necessary adjunct to neoclassical economics as the market place is a function of both economic and psychological mechanisms. We start with Psychoanalysis.
There are seven types of Personality Disorder/Style that create issues for individuals involved in trading financial markets. It should be noted that these conditions may apply to all market participants from market makers and analysts to the uninformed and the leisure punter.
1) Paranoid Personality Disorder causes individuals to be overly concerned about being cheated by the system or in face-to-face interactions.
2) Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) leads to operators being hugely concerned with being judged as a success by colleagues, peer group and society.
3) Depressed Personality Disorder causes a person to be in a constant state of disappointment and worry irrespective of the external prompts that should determine their state of mind.
4) Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder leads to market participants overly addressing the minor details in the trading arena. Leads to an inability to see the wood for the trees.
5) Borderline/Histrionic Personality Disorder causes people to be in a constant state of flux with regard to decision making and, consequently, they show an inability to relax and ponder.
6) Avoidant Personality Disorder forces individuals to repeatedly address previous errors and mistakes in order to correct the process or even to take revenge on the system or person perceived to be responsible.
7) Psychopathic Personality Disorder (PPDs) - Requires the co-existence of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) and Anti-Social Personality Disorder (ASPD). PPDs impacts on the markets on both the individual and aggregate levels. In relation to the financial and football markets, the whole structure of the trading system is psychopathic. Monopolistic abuse is sought out as a business strategy. Manipulation and corruption are seen as competitive advantages. Cartelisation is creative networking at a corporate level. The markets are manipulated in a variety of simple and complex ways that allow advantageous trading conditions for insiders and market operators. The markets are not transparent and disinformation is rife. Insider trading is accommodated and, indeed, encouraged. The accounting and legal systems are swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Institutions, governments and regulatory bodies are co-opted into the power structures. The psychopathic operators seek control of their environment - they deal with absolutes and not probabilities. The less level the playing field, the better.
On an individual level, a PPDs greatest pleasure is to take control of the properties and possessions of others. Power is the prime focus.
PPDs on both a systemic and individual level is by far the dominant Psychoanalytical mode in the globalised marketplace.
Saturday, 10 February 2007
Don't Bet on the Premiership Handicap Hurdle
Saturday's Premiership programme is very trappy indeed. Last week we advised leisure punters to avoid handing their money over to the bookmakers during the Chinese New Year period (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/take-month-off-improve-your-bank.html).
The proximity of the UEFA Cup games, the onset of the Champions League 2nd Phase window, Chinese New Year, the impact of being post-international break and a roster of games with associated officials that ensures a manipulated European-controlled marketplace are all major volatility and/or disinformational issues today.
There is a very liquid global market on Wiley's West Ham v Watford game. Curbishley has finally worked out that Green is a better keeper than Carroll but we will monitor this one. The global Premiership steamer of the day is Liverpool - but we're not convinced.
All eight games look tradeable until you get out the magnifying glass. We have a couple of Premiership positions in Asia but they are based on inside information and, unless you are in possession of similar levels of edge, forget it or you'll regret it.
You may as well blindly stick a pin in the horseracing card at Newbury. Although with Saturday meetings at Ayr and Warwick abandoned, horseracing markets will be equally manipulated today.
PS - Post Match Update - The wet pitch, Reina's error and Solano's penalty showed us to be correct in our opposition to the global gamble on Liverpool.
The proximity of the UEFA Cup games, the onset of the Champions League 2nd Phase window, Chinese New Year, the impact of being post-international break and a roster of games with associated officials that ensures a manipulated European-controlled marketplace are all major volatility and/or disinformational issues today.
There is a very liquid global market on Wiley's West Ham v Watford game. Curbishley has finally worked out that Green is a better keeper than Carroll but we will monitor this one. The global Premiership steamer of the day is Liverpool - but we're not convinced.
All eight games look tradeable until you get out the magnifying glass. We have a couple of Premiership positions in Asia but they are based on inside information and, unless you are in possession of similar levels of edge, forget it or you'll regret it.
You may as well blindly stick a pin in the horseracing card at Newbury. Although with Saturday meetings at Ayr and Warwick abandoned, horseracing markets will be equally manipulated today.
PS - Post Match Update - The wet pitch, Reina's error and Solano's penalty showed us to be correct in our opposition to the global gamble on Liverpool.
Money Money Money
One of the most interesting aspects of market analysis is directly related to the inefficiencies that exist in virtually all markets.
The vast majority of European bookmakers utilise derivative pricing for football matches ie their analysts do not price events based on a proprietary determination of price but rather they cluster around a mean price set by their competitors. There are a range of psychological reasons for this structure and we will focus on these in a future posting.
A prime example is provided by the behaviour of the layers around market opening for tomorrow's Serie A games. None of the key signpost markets in Asia and Italy priced up early as they were awaiting disclosures from Italian governmental bodies and the football authorities. Vertically integrated pressure within the European bookmaking organisations forced a presence in the market with even less market knowledge than is usually the case. There were two effects of this market structure. Firstly, the prices are more closely clustered than normal as all layers attempted to sit on the same fence. Secondly, some of the prices are way off target releasing oodles of value for professional analysts. The Italian markets are particularly inefficient on Sunday.
We have several major positions on this round of Serie A games based on the analysis of our Unified Trading Model (UTM) mixed in with some subtle Bayesian Reasoning. The utilisation of Bayesian Reasoning (a sort of big picture market overview) is vital at points of major upheaval. This latter type of analysis allows strong inferences to be developed from sparse data enabling situations to be comprehended prior to the frequentist competition. Correlation with causation is critical.
Which, in plain English, means that we are going to hammer the layers this weekend...
It also helps to emphasise the importance of maintaining an isolationist structure with regard to our trading operation. We develop trading positions prior to market opening and are able to disguise our trades in the earlier market phases by dealing with only one broker. Until this morning, only myself and my broker know my positions. Our Trading Team will be briefed this morning; Dietrological Platinum clients will be informed two hours prior to kick off; in the latter market phase we will place a combination of disguised trading and hedging positions around Europe and we release some information to Dietrological Gold clients.
Hierarchical isolationism is a key component of maintaining a competitive advantage.
The vast majority of European bookmakers utilise derivative pricing for football matches ie their analysts do not price events based on a proprietary determination of price but rather they cluster around a mean price set by their competitors. There are a range of psychological reasons for this structure and we will focus on these in a future posting.
A prime example is provided by the behaviour of the layers around market opening for tomorrow's Serie A games. None of the key signpost markets in Asia and Italy priced up early as they were awaiting disclosures from Italian governmental bodies and the football authorities. Vertically integrated pressure within the European bookmaking organisations forced a presence in the market with even less market knowledge than is usually the case. There were two effects of this market structure. Firstly, the prices are more closely clustered than normal as all layers attempted to sit on the same fence. Secondly, some of the prices are way off target releasing oodles of value for professional analysts. The Italian markets are particularly inefficient on Sunday.
We have several major positions on this round of Serie A games based on the analysis of our Unified Trading Model (UTM) mixed in with some subtle Bayesian Reasoning. The utilisation of Bayesian Reasoning (a sort of big picture market overview) is vital at points of major upheaval. This latter type of analysis allows strong inferences to be developed from sparse data enabling situations to be comprehended prior to the frequentist competition. Correlation with causation is critical.
Which, in plain English, means that we are going to hammer the layers this weekend...
It also helps to emphasise the importance of maintaining an isolationist structure with regard to our trading operation. We develop trading positions prior to market opening and are able to disguise our trades in the earlier market phases by dealing with only one broker. Until this morning, only myself and my broker know my positions. Our Trading Team will be briefed this morning; Dietrological Platinum clients will be informed two hours prior to kick off; in the latter market phase we will place a combination of disguised trading and hedging positions around Europe and we release some information to Dietrological Gold clients.
Hierarchical isolationism is a key component of maintaining a competitive advantage.
Friday, 9 February 2007
Anyone Seen Lord Stevens?
When BBC Panorama aired the programme regarding bungs in English football over four months ago, 6 clubs were highlighted or implicated in the production - Portsmouth, Bolton, Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Middlesbrough.
Although the Quest/ Stevens report was a cover up (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/bung-it-in-bin.html and http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/justice-not-even-seen-to-be-done.html), an observer might have expected subliminal punishment to be administered to the loose cannon clubs.
In other European territories, this is a standard method of effectively handicapping recalcitrant clubs without such punishment being obvious to the audience.
To check for evidence, we analysed the match data both for the whole season and the period following the Panorama documentary to see if refereeing bias was any different for the six clubs in comparison with the remainder of the clubs in the division.
And there is a difference...
The six clubs have actually been MORE favoured by officials both since the programme and over the whole season when compared with the other 14 teams. Although the statistical significance of this statement is borderline, there is most certainly no evidence that the teams that were fingered on Panorama have been on the receiving end. Indeed, Newcastle are the most favoured team with respect to referees decision making in 2006/07.
Quest's investigation will surely wither away and die. The outcome of the report would have been significantly harder to bury away if Quest had looked further back than the two year period that was covered.
Just as the public will not find out which Premiership manager placed £12m of bets on football matches over one season with Victor Chandler International (by the way, that's an average of £32,000 on every single match), neither will the true murky depths of the transfer market be laid bare for all to see.
Although the Quest/ Stevens report was a cover up (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/bung-it-in-bin.html and http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/justice-not-even-seen-to-be-done.html), an observer might have expected subliminal punishment to be administered to the loose cannon clubs.
In other European territories, this is a standard method of effectively handicapping recalcitrant clubs without such punishment being obvious to the audience.
To check for evidence, we analysed the match data both for the whole season and the period following the Panorama documentary to see if refereeing bias was any different for the six clubs in comparison with the remainder of the clubs in the division.
And there is a difference...
The six clubs have actually been MORE favoured by officials both since the programme and over the whole season when compared with the other 14 teams. Although the statistical significance of this statement is borderline, there is most certainly no evidence that the teams that were fingered on Panorama have been on the receiving end. Indeed, Newcastle are the most favoured team with respect to referees decision making in 2006/07.
Quest's investigation will surely wither away and die. The outcome of the report would have been significantly harder to bury away if Quest had looked further back than the two year period that was covered.
Just as the public will not find out which Premiership manager placed £12m of bets on football matches over one season with Victor Chandler International (by the way, that's an average of £32,000 on every single match), neither will the true murky depths of the transfer market be laid bare for all to see.
Thursday, 8 February 2007
Time To Develop A Negative Spin On Peace
Hamas and Fatah creating a unity government for Palestine is the best news of 2007 to date.
One would hope that the global sanctions can now be lifted to provide these impoverished people with a chance of survival with their democratically elected government.
However, Israeli bulldozers moved into southern Lebanon as soon as news leaked of the impending agreement in Mecca and the Americans put out some bellicose attitudes with respect to Iran so not much should be expected from the west.
Prior to the likelihood of a Hamas/ Fatah arrangement, today the US was putting out a semi-accomodatory stance towards Iran - "No intention of war with Iran" on Reuters and "US doesn't see Iran test missiles as threat" also on Reuters both released several hours prior to this historic agreement.
Then peace broke out... It's particularly annoying when peace obstructs your geopolitical strategy.
One would hope that the global sanctions can now be lifted to provide these impoverished people with a chance of survival with their democratically elected government.
However, Israeli bulldozers moved into southern Lebanon as soon as news leaked of the impending agreement in Mecca and the Americans put out some bellicose attitudes with respect to Iran so not much should be expected from the west.
Prior to the likelihood of a Hamas/ Fatah arrangement, today the US was putting out a semi-accomodatory stance towards Iran - "No intention of war with Iran" on Reuters and "US doesn't see Iran test missiles as threat" also on Reuters both released several hours prior to this historic agreement.
Then peace broke out... It's particularly annoying when peace obstructs your geopolitical strategy.
Crisis? What Crisis?
The global football betting markets are being severely disrupted by the state of the Italian game following reaction to the death of Filippo Raciti last weekend (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/disastroso.html).
Most bookmakers are delaying pricing up this weekend's Serie A games until the issue of the empty grounds has been concluded and there is a knock-on effect for the UEFA Cup markets next week and the following week's Champions League matches. As it currently stands, only the matches at Roma, Sampdoria, Cagliari, Palermo and Torino will be played in front of spectators this weekend and Milan and Inter may well play their Champions League games in France or Switzerland.
The repetitive nature of these periodic uproars in both the Italian game and in Italian society at large creates an increasingly volatile marketplace. The seemingly annual delays to the start of the season; points reductions and demotions; the inevitable appeals to such punishments; the extensive use and occasional selective targeting of the use of Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs); clubs with financial difficulties; governmental interference; corruption among the match officials; linked clubs; violent and racist ultras operating with official collusion. All part of the game in Italy.
Yet, even though the Italians throw these occasional histrionic hissy fits and overreact to the particular issue, at least they attempt to face up to the issues that blight their game (this is not underestimating the death of the Sicilian policeman but there was the death of a supporter the previous weekend without the equivalent media uproar). But real changes are transitory as Italian football moves between two separate equilibrium states - the centre-left bifurcation and the fascist-right bifurcation. Italy merely oscillates between two partially corrupt structures.
Unfortunately in England, one needs a Hillsborough or a Heysel to force the English authorities to pretend to address the problems in the game. The reaction to everything else is just business as usual. When major upheavals do occur in English football, there is a power grab by the types of people that we really don't want in the game and the initial issues become warped to what spectacular society desires. These structural breakpoints represent a bonus to the psychopathic power people whose incremental machinations to gain influence continue in real time. England is allowing it's national sport to develop an ongoing permanent structure that is both undemocratic (ie we can't get rid of them) and corrupt. Absolute corruption is far more of an issue than cyclical corruption.
This is the basic difference between the corruption in football in the two countries.
Most bookmakers are delaying pricing up this weekend's Serie A games until the issue of the empty grounds has been concluded and there is a knock-on effect for the UEFA Cup markets next week and the following week's Champions League matches. As it currently stands, only the matches at Roma, Sampdoria, Cagliari, Palermo and Torino will be played in front of spectators this weekend and Milan and Inter may well play their Champions League games in France or Switzerland.
The repetitive nature of these periodic uproars in both the Italian game and in Italian society at large creates an increasingly volatile marketplace. The seemingly annual delays to the start of the season; points reductions and demotions; the inevitable appeals to such punishments; the extensive use and occasional selective targeting of the use of Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs); clubs with financial difficulties; governmental interference; corruption among the match officials; linked clubs; violent and racist ultras operating with official collusion. All part of the game in Italy.
Yet, even though the Italians throw these occasional histrionic hissy fits and overreact to the particular issue, at least they attempt to face up to the issues that blight their game (this is not underestimating the death of the Sicilian policeman but there was the death of a supporter the previous weekend without the equivalent media uproar). But real changes are transitory as Italian football moves between two separate equilibrium states - the centre-left bifurcation and the fascist-right bifurcation. Italy merely oscillates between two partially corrupt structures.
Unfortunately in England, one needs a Hillsborough or a Heysel to force the English authorities to pretend to address the problems in the game. The reaction to everything else is just business as usual. When major upheavals do occur in English football, there is a power grab by the types of people that we really don't want in the game and the initial issues become warped to what spectacular society desires. These structural breakpoints represent a bonus to the psychopathic power people whose incremental machinations to gain influence continue in real time. England is allowing it's national sport to develop an ongoing permanent structure that is both undemocratic (ie we can't get rid of them) and corrupt. Absolute corruption is far more of an issue than cyclical corruption.
This is the basic difference between the corruption in football in the two countries.
Home Is Where The Hatred Is
There are two rules relating to trading on International football matches a) Never bet on Spain and b) Rarely bet on England. Consequently, last night's match held limited appeal until the Spanish Federation chose the morning of the game to announce that they had overturned a decision that had criticised the national team manager, Luis Aragonés, for "conduct which could be considered racist".
Leaving aside the Orwellian doublespeak that implies that calling Thierry Henry "that Black little shit" wasn't racist, Aragonés' "justification" - that he was obliged to motivate his players to achieve the best results - doesn't reflect very well on Spanish society as a whole.
Racism in the stadia in Spain is out of control as the numerous occurrences involving Samuel Eto'o and others have shown and, for the Spanish authorities to validate Aragonés' racism, is a dreadful indictment on the state of Spanish football overall. By selecting the morning of the England game, the Spanish authorities were deliberately creating a focus on the last time the teams met at the Bernabeu when the Black English players were treated to a torrent of racist abuse throughout the game.
The decision makes a mockery of anti-racism campaigns orchestrated by FIFA and UEFA. These are tokenistic marketing campaigns at best and a willful acceptance of racism in football at worst. Neither Aragonés nor Blokhin were sanctioned for their racism prior to the 2006 World Cup as FIFA wished for the focus to be on the beautiful game and not it's inherent problems (see previous post for an assessment of racism in the sporting hierarchies at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/yo-guvnor.html).
I made the choice to watch the match on BBC in the mistaken belief that some constructive anti-racist statement might be uttered in support of the Black players who were racially abused in Spain. Nothing. Motson put out his usual bumptious Ladbrokes-inspired disinformational drivel and Lawrensen tried to get as many pithy one-liners in as possible. But racism never got a mention.
Why? Not to offend your Spanish guests? Not to face up to the fact that racism in the game is indicative of racism in little England? Perhaps Motson was just worried that he is so out of touch that he wouldn't be able to put together a suitable sentence without appearing racist himself? Or, perhaps, countries like Britain and Spain have still not dealt with their grotesquely imperial and racist history?
Whatever the reason, it is shameful that the BBC chose to shirk this issue - at least, in Greece, we don't have to pay a license fee to witness this rubbish.
As for the match itself, England were dire; McLaren is out of his depth; Carrick is totally overrated; Lampard is a duplicitous liability. Professional traders avoid backing Spain as the degree of regionalism in Spain undermines proactive team building yet McLaren managed to make Spain look like worldbeaters.
No doubt he is on the phone to Max Clifford this morning determining how to put a positive spin on all this.
Leaving aside the Orwellian doublespeak that implies that calling Thierry Henry "that Black little shit" wasn't racist, Aragonés' "justification" - that he was obliged to motivate his players to achieve the best results - doesn't reflect very well on Spanish society as a whole.
Racism in the stadia in Spain is out of control as the numerous occurrences involving Samuel Eto'o and others have shown and, for the Spanish authorities to validate Aragonés' racism, is a dreadful indictment on the state of Spanish football overall. By selecting the morning of the England game, the Spanish authorities were deliberately creating a focus on the last time the teams met at the Bernabeu when the Black English players were treated to a torrent of racist abuse throughout the game.
The decision makes a mockery of anti-racism campaigns orchestrated by FIFA and UEFA. These are tokenistic marketing campaigns at best and a willful acceptance of racism in football at worst. Neither Aragonés nor Blokhin were sanctioned for their racism prior to the 2006 World Cup as FIFA wished for the focus to be on the beautiful game and not it's inherent problems (see previous post for an assessment of racism in the sporting hierarchies at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/yo-guvnor.html).
I made the choice to watch the match on BBC in the mistaken belief that some constructive anti-racist statement might be uttered in support of the Black players who were racially abused in Spain. Nothing. Motson put out his usual bumptious Ladbrokes-inspired disinformational drivel and Lawrensen tried to get as many pithy one-liners in as possible. But racism never got a mention.
Why? Not to offend your Spanish guests? Not to face up to the fact that racism in the game is indicative of racism in little England? Perhaps Motson was just worried that he is so out of touch that he wouldn't be able to put together a suitable sentence without appearing racist himself? Or, perhaps, countries like Britain and Spain have still not dealt with their grotesquely imperial and racist history?
Whatever the reason, it is shameful that the BBC chose to shirk this issue - at least, in Greece, we don't have to pay a license fee to witness this rubbish.
As for the match itself, England were dire; McLaren is out of his depth; Carrick is totally overrated; Lampard is a duplicitous liability. Professional traders avoid backing Spain as the degree of regionalism in Spain undermines proactive team building yet McLaren managed to make Spain look like worldbeaters.
No doubt he is on the phone to Max Clifford this morning determining how to put a positive spin on all this.
Wednesday, 7 February 2007
More Positive Discrimination and Multiculturalism, Please
There is a building pressure from the rabid right to enforce a termination of positive discrimination (affirmative action in US) to the disadvantage of Blacks. Their abusive argument goes something like this "it is unpopular; it encourages diversity; why should one group receive special attention; it is demeaning to treat Blacks as an underprivileged caste; race is a diminishing problem".
Taking each of their fallacious arguments in turn.
There may be some unpopularity in some circles ie among the white middle/upper classes and/or racists, but any supportive mechanism is critical in the ghettos of the US and England. There is much conversation about the volatility in earnings that the middle classes are experiencing due to shareholder capitalism but, for inner city Blacks, there is no volatility - grinding poverty with a complete lack of any safety nets is the lifelong unvarying norm. To propose a process to undermine the few remaining supportive structures for the poor is callous racism. Indeed, positive discrimination should be extended to cover all disenfranchised groups that exist at the sharp end of 1st World globalisation. Blacks would be stronger working with other economically disadvantaged communities; their voices would be louder and global; it would confront the divide-and-rule tactics foisted by institutions and economic pressures - it remains critical for any non-democratic system like shareholder capitalism, globalisation or slavery to split the masses and to encourage them to focus on one another as opposed to monitoring their system.
Secondly, the war of terror has been utilised by the right to launch a further war... on multiculturalism. There are very very few aspects of English culture that are worthy of note - England is a culture that doesn't do culture. On the occasions when I am required to be in England, all my pleasures exist as a direct and positive result of multiculturalism - food, music, sport, humour, art etc etc. Diversity is it! Multiculturalism may not have worked as well as it might but it takes two to tango and the sneering attitude of the vast majority of the English hosts is the main driver towards any lack of cultural crossover. The English are unwelcoming - my grandfather used to tell me how he was treated when he first arrived from Cork with rented accommodation posting signs saying "no Irish no Blacks". There's an inevitable reaction - when virtually every white face in any position of power is a hostile face, you quickly learn to avoid contact.
Thirdly, the only template that allows the acquiescent middle classes to feel comfortable with the systemic hierarchy is a misguided faith in meritocracy. This is a fallacy. The whole system is structured on reducing any resemblance to a level playing field. Success in England is highly dependent on where you were educated; which masonic lodge you belong to; where you network. Additionally, numerous incremental imbalances are built into the system - job perks for the elite (cheaper hotels, car hire, freebies etc); regressive taxation; expensive transfer of capital for the hordes of the global poor whose families depend on remittances sent back home (the exchange rates and charges justified by Moneygram and Western Union are criminal - frequently less than 75% of your hard earned wages reach the recipient); expensive insurance and/or an inability to afford insurance; the omnipresence of loan companies trying to get you to consolidate your debts so that you can be entertained in one of England's shiny new private prisons. These are all positive discriminations mainly in favour of white middle and upper classes - it would seem to be a far greater benefit to society as a whole to deconstruct these positive discriminations as opposed to the ones that favour the disadvantaged in some small way. The system does not allow a meritocratic route for Black people. Neo-con schemes eg school vouchers and charter schools exist merely to cream off the acquiescent and obedient brains while leaving the masses to struggle through a lifetime of poverty. The poor, and poor Blacks in particular, need a quality education and available career paths with strong supportive infrastructure to democratise the economic workplace. In 1998, the average life expectancy of a Black man in Harlem was 46 - this is less than Cambodia or Sudan. Positive discrimination in favour of Blacks is vital.
Fourthly and obviously, positive discrimination doesn't treat Blacks as an underprivileged caste, the entire system of globalised shareholder capitalism manages that quite well on it's own, thank you very much. We argued in a previous post that "through it's choice of target, globalisation is a racist system" (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/gift-of-black-folk.html). The whole structure is demeaning to Blacks. Using positive discrimination as a focus is merely creative doublethink.
The final claim of the rabid right regarding race becoming a peripheral issue needs a myopic view that one would hope only exists in the private clubs and lodges, parliament, golf course clubhouses, Henley... that sort of environment. When I visit England, I'm not so sure though...
In the words of Martin Luther King "we must realise that so many people are taught to hate us that they are not totally responsible for their hate".
Taking each of their fallacious arguments in turn.
There may be some unpopularity in some circles ie among the white middle/upper classes and/or racists, but any supportive mechanism is critical in the ghettos of the US and England. There is much conversation about the volatility in earnings that the middle classes are experiencing due to shareholder capitalism but, for inner city Blacks, there is no volatility - grinding poverty with a complete lack of any safety nets is the lifelong unvarying norm. To propose a process to undermine the few remaining supportive structures for the poor is callous racism. Indeed, positive discrimination should be extended to cover all disenfranchised groups that exist at the sharp end of 1st World globalisation. Blacks would be stronger working with other economically disadvantaged communities; their voices would be louder and global; it would confront the divide-and-rule tactics foisted by institutions and economic pressures - it remains critical for any non-democratic system like shareholder capitalism, globalisation or slavery to split the masses and to encourage them to focus on one another as opposed to monitoring their system.
Secondly, the war of terror has been utilised by the right to launch a further war... on multiculturalism. There are very very few aspects of English culture that are worthy of note - England is a culture that doesn't do culture. On the occasions when I am required to be in England, all my pleasures exist as a direct and positive result of multiculturalism - food, music, sport, humour, art etc etc. Diversity is it! Multiculturalism may not have worked as well as it might but it takes two to tango and the sneering attitude of the vast majority of the English hosts is the main driver towards any lack of cultural crossover. The English are unwelcoming - my grandfather used to tell me how he was treated when he first arrived from Cork with rented accommodation posting signs saying "no Irish no Blacks". There's an inevitable reaction - when virtually every white face in any position of power is a hostile face, you quickly learn to avoid contact.
Thirdly, the only template that allows the acquiescent middle classes to feel comfortable with the systemic hierarchy is a misguided faith in meritocracy. This is a fallacy. The whole system is structured on reducing any resemblance to a level playing field. Success in England is highly dependent on where you were educated; which masonic lodge you belong to; where you network. Additionally, numerous incremental imbalances are built into the system - job perks for the elite (cheaper hotels, car hire, freebies etc); regressive taxation; expensive transfer of capital for the hordes of the global poor whose families depend on remittances sent back home (the exchange rates and charges justified by Moneygram and Western Union are criminal - frequently less than 75% of your hard earned wages reach the recipient); expensive insurance and/or an inability to afford insurance; the omnipresence of loan companies trying to get you to consolidate your debts so that you can be entertained in one of England's shiny new private prisons. These are all positive discriminations mainly in favour of white middle and upper classes - it would seem to be a far greater benefit to society as a whole to deconstruct these positive discriminations as opposed to the ones that favour the disadvantaged in some small way. The system does not allow a meritocratic route for Black people. Neo-con schemes eg school vouchers and charter schools exist merely to cream off the acquiescent and obedient brains while leaving the masses to struggle through a lifetime of poverty. The poor, and poor Blacks in particular, need a quality education and available career paths with strong supportive infrastructure to democratise the economic workplace. In 1998, the average life expectancy of a Black man in Harlem was 46 - this is less than Cambodia or Sudan. Positive discrimination in favour of Blacks is vital.
Fourthly and obviously, positive discrimination doesn't treat Blacks as an underprivileged caste, the entire system of globalised shareholder capitalism manages that quite well on it's own, thank you very much. We argued in a previous post that "through it's choice of target, globalisation is a racist system" (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/gift-of-black-folk.html). The whole structure is demeaning to Blacks. Using positive discrimination as a focus is merely creative doublethink.
The final claim of the rabid right regarding race becoming a peripheral issue needs a myopic view that one would hope only exists in the private clubs and lodges, parliament, golf course clubhouses, Henley... that sort of environment. When I visit England, I'm not so sure though...
In the words of Martin Luther King "we must realise that so many people are taught to hate us that they are not totally responsible for their hate".
Tuesday, 6 February 2007
The Perverse Financial Incentives of Privatisation
The perverse incentives created by privatisation are perfectly demonstrated by the structure that now exists in Health Care in Britain. There are effectively five options for members of the British population.
1) The NHS - Anybody who has had any reason to deal on a serious level with the NHS recently will understand that the system simply isn't working despite the best efforts of many of the practitioners and staff. The GPs act as guardians to a system of hospital care that costs money to perform so the economic incentive is for GPs to act as strict gatekeepers to restrict the flow of people to the hospitals. Furthermore, as I found out to my cost a couple of years ago, government hoops cause the hospital authorities to creatively doctor the waiting lists so that their targets are seen to be realised.
2) Private Healthcare Scheme (PHCS) - Paying ahead for supposedly preferential health care is also a no-no and the reasons are, once again, based on economic incentives. If an individual or family pays in advance to cover the risk of future treatment, the incentive exists within the PHCS world to limit such treatment once required in order to enhance the cash flow of the PHCS operators. This distortion of incentives is typical of other insurance-based structures eg the utilities offering protection against the highly unlikely event with a multi-loopholed contract or, indeed, the insurance industry itself.
3) One-Off Private Healthcare (PHC) - In this situation, one awaits illness or injury with dread. When such an eventuality arrives, you drag yourself and your cheque book to a PHC provider and, in a one-sided negotiation (due to your paramount needs), you are fleeced in order to get suitable treatment. A further perversity of this choice is that you are actually likely to get better (and more expensive) treatment to enhance the PHC's bottom line. A huge downside is that it is in the interests of the PHC to persuade the patient to receive unnecessary treatment - think dentists! A similar structure exists with car mechanics where the company desires to get the maximum payment for a job without crossing the threshold that would prevent the customer returning in the future.
4) Healthcare Abroad - This is the best option although each country has it's own indecipherable and illogical structure. I now get all my healthcare provision in Greece but, if I am ever hospitalised, I must provide my own nursing and ancillary support.
5) Preventative Attitudes and Alternative Medicine - Living healthily and utilising supportive medical and wellbeing care (eg acupuncture, tai chi, meditation etc) is a necessary adjunct to limit the potential for dealing with any healthcare provider at any time.
In Britain, of course, the poor only have one option - the NHS. Dentistry was used by shareholder capitalism in Britain as an experiment to see how the sector adjusted to a private structure. It is now virtually impossible to be registered with dentists unless taking out a private contract.
There has been much hot air from the chattering classes about the formation of a two-tiered health system in the country. This is not the case. There is only one tier and that is private.
1) The NHS - Anybody who has had any reason to deal on a serious level with the NHS recently will understand that the system simply isn't working despite the best efforts of many of the practitioners and staff. The GPs act as guardians to a system of hospital care that costs money to perform so the economic incentive is for GPs to act as strict gatekeepers to restrict the flow of people to the hospitals. Furthermore, as I found out to my cost a couple of years ago, government hoops cause the hospital authorities to creatively doctor the waiting lists so that their targets are seen to be realised.
2) Private Healthcare Scheme (PHCS) - Paying ahead for supposedly preferential health care is also a no-no and the reasons are, once again, based on economic incentives. If an individual or family pays in advance to cover the risk of future treatment, the incentive exists within the PHCS world to limit such treatment once required in order to enhance the cash flow of the PHCS operators. This distortion of incentives is typical of other insurance-based structures eg the utilities offering protection against the highly unlikely event with a multi-loopholed contract or, indeed, the insurance industry itself.
3) One-Off Private Healthcare (PHC) - In this situation, one awaits illness or injury with dread. When such an eventuality arrives, you drag yourself and your cheque book to a PHC provider and, in a one-sided negotiation (due to your paramount needs), you are fleeced in order to get suitable treatment. A further perversity of this choice is that you are actually likely to get better (and more expensive) treatment to enhance the PHC's bottom line. A huge downside is that it is in the interests of the PHC to persuade the patient to receive unnecessary treatment - think dentists! A similar structure exists with car mechanics where the company desires to get the maximum payment for a job without crossing the threshold that would prevent the customer returning in the future.
4) Healthcare Abroad - This is the best option although each country has it's own indecipherable and illogical structure. I now get all my healthcare provision in Greece but, if I am ever hospitalised, I must provide my own nursing and ancillary support.
5) Preventative Attitudes and Alternative Medicine - Living healthily and utilising supportive medical and wellbeing care (eg acupuncture, tai chi, meditation etc) is a necessary adjunct to limit the potential for dealing with any healthcare provider at any time.
In Britain, of course, the poor only have one option - the NHS. Dentistry was used by shareholder capitalism in Britain as an experiment to see how the sector adjusted to a private structure. It is now virtually impossible to be registered with dentists unless taking out a private contract.
There has been much hot air from the chattering classes about the formation of a two-tiered health system in the country. This is not the case. There is only one tier and that is private.
Monday, 5 February 2007
Media Meta Analysis
A very rewarding area to be explored towards achieving target profit on trading activities is Media Meta Analysis.
This incorporates many of the features previously posted at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/trading-against-media-disinformation.html.
The aim of this type of market analysis is to collate and weight all media disinformation and to utilise this disinformation to enhance your personal view of the trading place. One needs to develop Configurative Trading Sub-Models to achieve this outcome (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fundamentals-configurative-parameters.html).
Firstly, identify the relevant media and weight the information flow by column centimetres or air time; by positional relationships within the media and by the impact of the particular media.
Secondly, you are required to determine the likelihood of the supposed information being active disinformation. We have no desire to explore the analytical complexities involved around this area in this post.
Thirdly, Media Meta Analysis should be incorporated into the overall trading model for the event as it is often possible to determine disinformation through addressing the fundamentals.
The final output may be utilised in sports, financial and political markets and shares many characteristics with the largely random contrary trading undertaken by many financial professionals.
As a single media outlet example, let's look at the information in the Racing Post on Saturday. Dan Childs provides verdicts on the Premiership games and below are details of his positions together with how many points the Racing Post suggested (1 = low level position/ 4 = high level position) and the outcome of such trading advice. Only positions related to supremacy are included ie no Total Goals or Bookings positions.
Aston Villa v WEST HAM - 1pt at 7/2 (LOSER)
BLACKBURN v Sheff Utd - 1pt to win to nil at 9/5 (LOSER)
Charlton v CHELSEA - 4pts at -1.25 on Asian Handicap (LOSER)
Fulham v NEWCASTLE - 2pts at 11/5 (LOSER)
WATFORD v Bolton - 1pt at 13/5 (LOSER)
WIGAN v Portsmouth - 1pt at 17/10 (WINNER)
LIVERPOOL v Everton - 0.5pt to win 2-1 at 15/2 (LOSER)
MIDDLESBROUGH v Arsenal - 2pts at 4/1 (LOSER)
In addition, the main football headline encouraged readers to back Liverpool to win and Gerrard to score (LOSER).
9 advices and 1 winning position is supportive of our general view that the Racing Post has the betting industry's best intentions at heart.
This incorporates many of the features previously posted at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/trading-against-media-disinformation.html.
The aim of this type of market analysis is to collate and weight all media disinformation and to utilise this disinformation to enhance your personal view of the trading place. One needs to develop Configurative Trading Sub-Models to achieve this outcome (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fundamentals-configurative-parameters.html).
Firstly, identify the relevant media and weight the information flow by column centimetres or air time; by positional relationships within the media and by the impact of the particular media.
Secondly, you are required to determine the likelihood of the supposed information being active disinformation. We have no desire to explore the analytical complexities involved around this area in this post.
Thirdly, Media Meta Analysis should be incorporated into the overall trading model for the event as it is often possible to determine disinformation through addressing the fundamentals.
The final output may be utilised in sports, financial and political markets and shares many characteristics with the largely random contrary trading undertaken by many financial professionals.
As a single media outlet example, let's look at the information in the Racing Post on Saturday. Dan Childs provides verdicts on the Premiership games and below are details of his positions together with how many points the Racing Post suggested (1 = low level position/ 4 = high level position) and the outcome of such trading advice. Only positions related to supremacy are included ie no Total Goals or Bookings positions.
Aston Villa v WEST HAM - 1pt at 7/2 (LOSER)
BLACKBURN v Sheff Utd - 1pt to win to nil at 9/5 (LOSER)
Charlton v CHELSEA - 4pts at -1.25 on Asian Handicap (LOSER)
Fulham v NEWCASTLE - 2pts at 11/5 (LOSER)
WATFORD v Bolton - 1pt at 13/5 (LOSER)
WIGAN v Portsmouth - 1pt at 17/10 (WINNER)
LIVERPOOL v Everton - 0.5pt to win 2-1 at 15/2 (LOSER)
MIDDLESBROUGH v Arsenal - 2pts at 4/1 (LOSER)
In addition, the main football headline encouraged readers to back Liverpool to win and Gerrard to score (LOSER).
9 advices and 1 winning position is supportive of our general view that the Racing Post has the betting industry's best intentions at heart.
Sunday, 4 February 2007
Riley and Wiley make the Bookmakers Smiley
Just another standard Saturday in the corrupt world of the Premiership.
Each of the Sky PremPlus offerings saw major global gambles on the favourites, Liverpool and Arsenal.
We would never have advocated backing Liverpool against "the little club" (in the words of Benitez) but Lescott's handball was a penalty even if Neville's probably wasn't and, as ever in such situations, Alan Wiley turned a blind eye. SkyBet were on the draw throughout the market.
The sending off of Senderos by Mike Riley may have had some limited justification but it most certainly wasn't a penalty. Additionally, Viduka and Arca both could have seen straight red cards for their respective assaults on Toure and Fabregas. Numerous previous posts have highlighted the corruption at the expense of Arsenal this season - we are considering creating an Arsenal "tag" due to the frequency of such occurrences! Arsenal would be 15 points better off on a level playing field and we would have a very different title race.
Yet again, football loses; the fans lose; the Premiership loses; the bookmakers win. Modern day manipulation in a crappy little country...
Each of the Sky PremPlus offerings saw major global gambles on the favourites, Liverpool and Arsenal.
We would never have advocated backing Liverpool against "the little club" (in the words of Benitez) but Lescott's handball was a penalty even if Neville's probably wasn't and, as ever in such situations, Alan Wiley turned a blind eye. SkyBet were on the draw throughout the market.
The sending off of Senderos by Mike Riley may have had some limited justification but it most certainly wasn't a penalty. Additionally, Viduka and Arca both could have seen straight red cards for their respective assaults on Toure and Fabregas. Numerous previous posts have highlighted the corruption at the expense of Arsenal this season - we are considering creating an Arsenal "tag" due to the frequency of such occurrences! Arsenal would be 15 points better off on a level playing field and we would have a very different title race.
Yet again, football loses; the fans lose; the Premiership loses; the bookmakers win. Modern day manipulation in a crappy little country...
Saturday, 3 February 2007
Not So Bootiful
It comes as no great surprise that the first case of H5N1 bird flu in Britain was found at one of Bernard Matthews 57 factory farms in Suffolk.
Matthews established his first turkey farm in 1950 borrowing the industrialisation processes from American farmers who had based their initial intensive farming on practices perfected by the Nazi concentration camps in World War II.
These places are hellholes. When I was an active member of the Animal Liberation Front (ALF), we regularly used to "assess" battery farms across Britain. By some distance, Matthews' farms were the worst turkey farms in the land. The birds exist in squalor; cannibalism is rife; dead birds are removed from time to time by the dehumanised minimum wage workers from Southern and Eastern Europe but not until after extensive suffering (being pecked to death by your own kind is a speciesist equivalent of living in the Third World). Towards death, the sheds are so over-crowded that a peculiar wave of creatures occurs as the birds battle to be able to place their feet on unavailable ground.
Simply, Bernard Matthews is a psychopath (for justification, see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/psychopathic-personality-disorder.html). In 100 years time, people like Matthews will be rightly reviled. He abuses everybody and everything in his powers to achieve indecent profit. 8 million birds die every year so that he can live in his big house. For the 160,000 animals who will be culled as a result of DEFRA finding bird flu in Britain, death will come as a release. Life is misery.
It's up to everyone to make their own choices on what they choose to eat but why anybody would select the products of Bernard Matthews is beyond me. The meat is sub-standard as the birds are excessively stressed; the industrialised automation provides numerous loopholes for disease; the workers are mistreated; the end product is a pale imitation of free range and organic meat where the animals have at least been given the respect of a life of sorts prior to slaughter.
The British establishment gave this mass murderer a CBE in December in return for some tokenistic input he gave to the Duke of Edinburgh's Award scheme. Well, that makes up for the deaths of a quarter of a billion (that is 250,000,000) birds, I suppose.
Apart from the immediate culling, the close focus of government and veterinary professionals and the inevitable negative impact on Bernard Matthews Farms as a business, the man should be aware that the ALF (and other groups) may well be focusing on his operation with renewed vigour.
There may be trouble ahead...
NB. Matthews' products generally include his name on the packaging of drummers, mini kievs, turkey escalopes, pastry lattices and slices, Norfolk turkey breast, wafer thin turkey ham, blt and tikka sandwiches plus roast and oven ready full or part bird. What happened to turkey twizzlers?
Matthews established his first turkey farm in 1950 borrowing the industrialisation processes from American farmers who had based their initial intensive farming on practices perfected by the Nazi concentration camps in World War II.
These places are hellholes. When I was an active member of the Animal Liberation Front (ALF), we regularly used to "assess" battery farms across Britain. By some distance, Matthews' farms were the worst turkey farms in the land. The birds exist in squalor; cannibalism is rife; dead birds are removed from time to time by the dehumanised minimum wage workers from Southern and Eastern Europe but not until after extensive suffering (being pecked to death by your own kind is a speciesist equivalent of living in the Third World). Towards death, the sheds are so over-crowded that a peculiar wave of creatures occurs as the birds battle to be able to place their feet on unavailable ground.
Simply, Bernard Matthews is a psychopath (for justification, see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/psychopathic-personality-disorder.html). In 100 years time, people like Matthews will be rightly reviled. He abuses everybody and everything in his powers to achieve indecent profit. 8 million birds die every year so that he can live in his big house. For the 160,000 animals who will be culled as a result of DEFRA finding bird flu in Britain, death will come as a release. Life is misery.
It's up to everyone to make their own choices on what they choose to eat but why anybody would select the products of Bernard Matthews is beyond me. The meat is sub-standard as the birds are excessively stressed; the industrialised automation provides numerous loopholes for disease; the workers are mistreated; the end product is a pale imitation of free range and organic meat where the animals have at least been given the respect of a life of sorts prior to slaughter.
The British establishment gave this mass murderer a CBE in December in return for some tokenistic input he gave to the Duke of Edinburgh's Award scheme. Well, that makes up for the deaths of a quarter of a billion (that is 250,000,000) birds, I suppose.
Apart from the immediate culling, the close focus of government and veterinary professionals and the inevitable negative impact on Bernard Matthews Farms as a business, the man should be aware that the ALF (and other groups) may well be focusing on his operation with renewed vigour.
There may be trouble ahead...
NB. Matthews' products generally include his name on the packaging of drummers, mini kievs, turkey escalopes, pastry lattices and slices, Norfolk turkey breast, wafer thin turkey ham, blt and tikka sandwiches plus roast and oven ready full or part bird. What happened to turkey twizzlers?
Disastroso
The death of policeman Filippo Raciti outside the Stadio Massimino after last nights Sicilian derby between Catania and Palermo has correctly resulted in football being terminated for the immediate future. The game had already been brought forward to early Friday evening as trouble was expected due to the current situation in Sicily.
Since Berlusconi was removed from his post, politics and society in Sicily have been in a state of flux. Once untouchable mafiosi have been arrested and there are power struggles at different strata across the island. This uproar had already impacted upon football when Rino Foschi, the Palermo Sports Director, received a goat's head through the post in protest against his team's poor run of form prior to xmas break (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fratelli-ditalia.html).
The authorities were forced to act as last night's trouble followed a whole wave of violence at Italian matches last weekend and, today, Serie A programmed another potential flashpoint match between Reggina and Messina. Furthermore, next weekend would have seen another Sicilian derby between Messina and Catania.
The Gazzetta dello Sport lists the precedents to this dreadful death. Virtually all of the previous issues of violence have had two structures - the games were either local derbies in the rich northern half of Italy or games involving an Italian and an English club.
The centre-left government of Prodi has undertaken many positive micro-changes to Italian society since coming to power but the destabilising effect of policies towards Sicily have finally exploded onto the national stage. The first mafiosi arrest was the day after the new government was sworn in. This suggests an agenda.
The tit-for-tat nature of Italian politics is extremely foolhardy in volatile areas like Sicily, Napoli and Reggio di Calabria (and, indeed, across the Mezzogiorno) where the mafia provide an abusive but stable societal hierarchy.
Once it became apparent that the match was going to explode into violence, it should have been abandoned - Farina took the players off the pitch for 30 minutes to allow the tear gas to clear. Referees have favoured Palermo and undermined Catania throughout this season and, once Farina had decided to restart the game, it was an act of the utmost foolishness to allow the controversial winning goal that was scored by Di Michele's arm. What was the man thinking of?
The Catania ground authorities also need to explain why the visiting Palermo fans were kept outside the ground until the 55th minute of the game. Inevitably, they arrived in the ground with an attitude. For the Catania president, Antonio Pulvirenti, to put the blame solely on the Palermo fans is shameful.
Since Berlusconi was removed from his post, politics and society in Sicily have been in a state of flux. Once untouchable mafiosi have been arrested and there are power struggles at different strata across the island. This uproar had already impacted upon football when Rino Foschi, the Palermo Sports Director, received a goat's head through the post in protest against his team's poor run of form prior to xmas break (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fratelli-ditalia.html).
The authorities were forced to act as last night's trouble followed a whole wave of violence at Italian matches last weekend and, today, Serie A programmed another potential flashpoint match between Reggina and Messina. Furthermore, next weekend would have seen another Sicilian derby between Messina and Catania.
The Gazzetta dello Sport lists the precedents to this dreadful death. Virtually all of the previous issues of violence have had two structures - the games were either local derbies in the rich northern half of Italy or games involving an Italian and an English club.
The centre-left government of Prodi has undertaken many positive micro-changes to Italian society since coming to power but the destabilising effect of policies towards Sicily have finally exploded onto the national stage. The first mafiosi arrest was the day after the new government was sworn in. This suggests an agenda.
The tit-for-tat nature of Italian politics is extremely foolhardy in volatile areas like Sicily, Napoli and Reggio di Calabria (and, indeed, across the Mezzogiorno) where the mafia provide an abusive but stable societal hierarchy.
Once it became apparent that the match was going to explode into violence, it should have been abandoned - Farina took the players off the pitch for 30 minutes to allow the tear gas to clear. Referees have favoured Palermo and undermined Catania throughout this season and, once Farina had decided to restart the game, it was an act of the utmost foolishness to allow the controversial winning goal that was scored by Di Michele's arm. What was the man thinking of?
The Catania ground authorities also need to explain why the visiting Palermo fans were kept outside the ground until the 55th minute of the game. Inevitably, they arrived in the ground with an attitude. For the Catania president, Antonio Pulvirenti, to put the blame solely on the Palermo fans is shameful.
Friday, 2 February 2007
Steve McLaren - The Bookmaker's Choice
Steve McLaren is losing the plot. The man is only England manager because it suits the short term aims of some of the powers that be in the English game and yet McLaren has deluded himself into believing that his appointment was meritocratic.
Following his idiotic cosying up to that sinister friend of the bookies Max Clifford, he is now apparently psychologically profiling Tony Blair in order to improve his public performances. Developing a suitable PR mask is not going to hide McLaren's coaching and man management deficiencies.
Our contacts at Boro have provided us with a dossier on McLaren's shortcomings in all areas of management and his personal life when he was in the north east but yesterday's press release by departing Boro player Massimo Maccarone encapsulates the atmosphere pretty well.
"My time at Middlesbrough was sheer hell" Maccarone said. "The so-called wonderful Steve McClaren is the most hypocritical and two-faced person I have ever had the misfortune to meet. Only in England could they appoint someone with such obvious limitations to become the national coach". Couldn't agree more...
Following his idiotic cosying up to that sinister friend of the bookies Max Clifford, he is now apparently psychologically profiling Tony Blair in order to improve his public performances. Developing a suitable PR mask is not going to hide McLaren's coaching and man management deficiencies.
Our contacts at Boro have provided us with a dossier on McLaren's shortcomings in all areas of management and his personal life when he was in the north east but yesterday's press release by departing Boro player Massimo Maccarone encapsulates the atmosphere pretty well.
"My time at Middlesbrough was sheer hell" Maccarone said. "The so-called wonderful Steve McClaren is the most hypocritical and two-faced person I have ever had the misfortune to meet. Only in England could they appoint someone with such obvious limitations to become the national coach". Couldn't agree more...
Deutschland Deutschland Unter Alles
Three sackings of Bundesliga managers within hours of one another is unprecedented in a country where enhanced loyalty to management is the norm. But Bayern Munchen, Hamburg and Borussia Moenchengladbach all applied the boot after no improvement in form post mid season break.
After Franz Beckenbauer "lost" the election for UEFA President to Michel Platini, he has been like a bear with a sore head. If Johansson had won the election, the rumour was that he would step down after one year to allow Der Kaiser to take over (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/uefa-democratic-under-platini.html for details). Beckenbauer is a power operator in the German game and, behind the attempt at charm on the exterior, he exhibits a driven lust for power in all areas of his life. Not content with being big in Bavaria, Der Kaiser desires European recognition. Post UEFA election, he has been looking for some manner to take out his frustrations and he chose to sack Felix Magath. Well actually he got someone else to do the sacking while he was doing business in Dubai although he grabbed his slice of the action by leaking the news to Bild.
Financial limitations don't allow Bayern Munchen to compete with the major G14(18) teams anymore and Beckenbauer has repeatedly spoken out about German football becoming second tier in Europe. Additionally, this season, the Bundesliga has created real impetus to drive gambling out of the domestic game following the Hoyzer affair and this has randomised the league table to some extent. Blaming Magath is a distraction. Bayern were unlucky not to beat Bochum and lost at Dortmund in a blizzard that undermined constructive football. The arrival of Ottmar Hitzfeld is unlikely to change anything and we agree with Der Tagesspiegel when they state "instead of changing the manager, they will only be helped by a change of ideology".
We outlined the problems at HSV in a previous post (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/too-many-hamburgers.html). Doll was eventually sacked after Hamburg hammered Cottbus 1-1 in midweek. For the reasons outlined in the post above, we believe that the northerners travails will continue under new management. The players fought for Doll but their fitness levels have been poor throughout the season and it is aspects of the clubs training and medical regime that need to be put under the spotlight.
Moenchengladbach have been in decline since they were unprofessional enough to employ Dick Advocaat in 2004. Since that fateful day, Borussia have only won 2 away games out of 44 matches which has simply not been addressed by the subsequent management teams.
Generally, changes in management have a positive impact on a team's fortunes in the short term but, in all three of the above cases, we expect minimal change following the sackings. Structural problems are not solved by interpersonal power politics.
After Franz Beckenbauer "lost" the election for UEFA President to Michel Platini, he has been like a bear with a sore head. If Johansson had won the election, the rumour was that he would step down after one year to allow Der Kaiser to take over (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/uefa-democratic-under-platini.html for details). Beckenbauer is a power operator in the German game and, behind the attempt at charm on the exterior, he exhibits a driven lust for power in all areas of his life. Not content with being big in Bavaria, Der Kaiser desires European recognition. Post UEFA election, he has been looking for some manner to take out his frustrations and he chose to sack Felix Magath. Well actually he got someone else to do the sacking while he was doing business in Dubai although he grabbed his slice of the action by leaking the news to Bild.
Financial limitations don't allow Bayern Munchen to compete with the major G14(18) teams anymore and Beckenbauer has repeatedly spoken out about German football becoming second tier in Europe. Additionally, this season, the Bundesliga has created real impetus to drive gambling out of the domestic game following the Hoyzer affair and this has randomised the league table to some extent. Blaming Magath is a distraction. Bayern were unlucky not to beat Bochum and lost at Dortmund in a blizzard that undermined constructive football. The arrival of Ottmar Hitzfeld is unlikely to change anything and we agree with Der Tagesspiegel when they state "instead of changing the manager, they will only be helped by a change of ideology".
We outlined the problems at HSV in a previous post (http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/too-many-hamburgers.html). Doll was eventually sacked after Hamburg hammered Cottbus 1-1 in midweek. For the reasons outlined in the post above, we believe that the northerners travails will continue under new management. The players fought for Doll but their fitness levels have been poor throughout the season and it is aspects of the clubs training and medical regime that need to be put under the spotlight.
Moenchengladbach have been in decline since they were unprofessional enough to employ Dick Advocaat in 2004. Since that fateful day, Borussia have only won 2 away games out of 44 matches which has simply not been addressed by the subsequent management teams.
Generally, changes in management have a positive impact on a team's fortunes in the short term but, in all three of the above cases, we expect minimal change following the sackings. Structural problems are not solved by interpersonal power politics.
Thursday, 1 February 2007
Betting Patterns 3 Aston Villa 1
The midweek Premiership games were unremarkable until one focuses on the underlying betting markets. So here is the round-up from our Trading Team.
Pompey and Boro was typical of a Serie A agreed draw - Portsmouth simply did not attempt to score and Yakubu played his part in neutralising the Middlesbrough attack. Our main trader actually fell asleep at one point in the second half.
Chris Kirkland gave a Grobbelaaresque performance in Wigan's defeat at Reading. Okay, so we had a losing trading position on this event so we have an angle on the match but, despite this, the man simply hasn't mastered the control of body language that is necessary. The betting market was quite complex on this event but several Asian layers were heavily hit by Reading's victory. In future, there will be certain Wigan games that we will avoid and, if Paul Jewell wishes to remain in the Premiership, he should change his keeper. There is a dynamic to get the Lancastrians out of the Premiership anyway due to their lack of glamour and because there are simply too many teams from the north west in the league. Wigan and Watford are, by some distance, the least favoured teams at the hands of our match officials.
There was a global gamble on Villa at Newcastle which we couldn't appreciate as Howard Webb was blowing the whistle. The disallowed Carew goal was one of the most atrocious pieces of officiating this season. The best referees from a Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) perspective are the ones who are able to act with a degree of subtlety. Mr Webb like Mr Poll doesn't always achieve this.
We have stated in the past that we always take a keen interest in any new officials that are added to the Premiership roster. Step forward Lee Probert from the footballing hotspot of Gloucestershire. We sent a junior trader to watch his first match in charge (Sheff Utd v Portsmouth) and I had to spend last night in the windswept badlands of the Reebok watching a disastrous performance by Mr Probert. Once again, there was a major global bet on Wanderers but we wouldn't get involved due to Probert. The Nolan penalty decision left me speechless; the later penalty decision only left me muttering incoherently. Nolan's post match interview was revealing - "we didn't get these penalties but hopefully we will get it back in the next few games" - in that it encapsulates the gut feeling of professional players in a season where manipulation of outcome by match officials has reached very worrying levels.
Finally, egotistical Mr Poll officiated on Chelsea for the first time since his alleged verbal threats to "teach them a listen" in November's televised match at Tottenham. Unfortunately, we are not privy to any pre-match "threats" on this occasion. We made big money on this game by undertaking contrary trading to the gamble on Blackburn which was simply stupid money. Incidentally, it was Poll's performance in that Tottenham game that persuaded us to start this blog.
The people who are involved in the corruption of English football matches need to learn one important lesson. Don't underestimate your audience. As we have stated before, in footballing centres like Liverpool, Glasgow and Manchester, the discussion among fans isn't about whether the game is corrupt but about how it is corrupt and who is doing the corrupting.
Pompey and Boro was typical of a Serie A agreed draw - Portsmouth simply did not attempt to score and Yakubu played his part in neutralising the Middlesbrough attack. Our main trader actually fell asleep at one point in the second half.
Chris Kirkland gave a Grobbelaaresque performance in Wigan's defeat at Reading. Okay, so we had a losing trading position on this event so we have an angle on the match but, despite this, the man simply hasn't mastered the control of body language that is necessary. The betting market was quite complex on this event but several Asian layers were heavily hit by Reading's victory. In future, there will be certain Wigan games that we will avoid and, if Paul Jewell wishes to remain in the Premiership, he should change his keeper. There is a dynamic to get the Lancastrians out of the Premiership anyway due to their lack of glamour and because there are simply too many teams from the north west in the league. Wigan and Watford are, by some distance, the least favoured teams at the hands of our match officials.
There was a global gamble on Villa at Newcastle which we couldn't appreciate as Howard Webb was blowing the whistle. The disallowed Carew goal was one of the most atrocious pieces of officiating this season. The best referees from a Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) perspective are the ones who are able to act with a degree of subtlety. Mr Webb like Mr Poll doesn't always achieve this.
We have stated in the past that we always take a keen interest in any new officials that are added to the Premiership roster. Step forward Lee Probert from the footballing hotspot of Gloucestershire. We sent a junior trader to watch his first match in charge (Sheff Utd v Portsmouth) and I had to spend last night in the windswept badlands of the Reebok watching a disastrous performance by Mr Probert. Once again, there was a major global bet on Wanderers but we wouldn't get involved due to Probert. The Nolan penalty decision left me speechless; the later penalty decision only left me muttering incoherently. Nolan's post match interview was revealing - "we didn't get these penalties but hopefully we will get it back in the next few games" - in that it encapsulates the gut feeling of professional players in a season where manipulation of outcome by match officials has reached very worrying levels.
Finally, egotistical Mr Poll officiated on Chelsea for the first time since his alleged verbal threats to "teach them a listen" in November's televised match at Tottenham. Unfortunately, we are not privy to any pre-match "threats" on this occasion. We made big money on this game by undertaking contrary trading to the gamble on Blackburn which was simply stupid money. Incidentally, it was Poll's performance in that Tottenham game that persuaded us to start this blog.
The people who are involved in the corruption of English football matches need to learn one important lesson. Don't underestimate your audience. As we have stated before, in footballing centres like Liverpool, Glasgow and Manchester, the discussion among fans isn't about whether the game is corrupt but about how it is corrupt and who is doing the corrupting.
Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely #3
In Greece, it is not the betting patterns and bookmakers that determine the outcome of football matches so we should at least be grateful for that. It's politics instead.
Yesterday's Greek Cup Quarter Finals 2nd Legs demonstrated this clearly. Second Division Pas Giannina knocked out the mighty Olympiakos despite refereeing that was extraordinary in it's bias. Giannina is a small town at the foot of the Zagori mountains that straddle the border between Greece and Albania and, incidentally, is a base camp for us mountain bikers and climbers.
The remarkable rise of Pas Giannina is one of those heart-warming stories that simply would not occur in the moneyed hierarchies of English football. The match in Athens was the equivalent of Carlisle beating Man Utd over two legs.
Creative refereeing in the Panathinaikos game at least assured the government's team of further progress which is fortunate for them as they have no chance in the Hellenic Super League despite controlling the officials.
There was one match several years back that Olympiakos were losing 3-1 with 20 minutes remaining yet the Piraeus fans in The Kop (Garitsa's Olympiakos bar) remained confident of victory to the point of being blasé. A couple of penalties later and a 4-3 win. I remember Giannokopoulos laughing as the first penalty decision was given as he quite clearly performed a pirouette with a triple salto thrown in - nobody near him.
The situation in Greece is replicated in Spain where huge debates take place across the media on the announcement of the officials for the weekend's round of matches. In both countries politics is a root of these controversies with Spain offering the added complication of rampant regionalism.
Comparison with this season in Italy demonstrates how far the FIGC and the Italian government have come in rooting out corruption in Serie A. Remarkable considering it's historical issues.
If only the FA, the Premier League and the backhander brigade at the Department for Corruption Media and Sport would be similarly efficient - Italian football is now considerably less corrupt than English football which is not something that would have been predictable 15 years ago when Murdoch first appeared on the scene.
Yesterday's Greek Cup Quarter Finals 2nd Legs demonstrated this clearly. Second Division Pas Giannina knocked out the mighty Olympiakos despite refereeing that was extraordinary in it's bias. Giannina is a small town at the foot of the Zagori mountains that straddle the border between Greece and Albania and, incidentally, is a base camp for us mountain bikers and climbers.
The remarkable rise of Pas Giannina is one of those heart-warming stories that simply would not occur in the moneyed hierarchies of English football. The match in Athens was the equivalent of Carlisle beating Man Utd over two legs.
Creative refereeing in the Panathinaikos game at least assured the government's team of further progress which is fortunate for them as they have no chance in the Hellenic Super League despite controlling the officials.
There was one match several years back that Olympiakos were losing 3-1 with 20 minutes remaining yet the Piraeus fans in The Kop (Garitsa's Olympiakos bar) remained confident of victory to the point of being blasé. A couple of penalties later and a 4-3 win. I remember Giannokopoulos laughing as the first penalty decision was given as he quite clearly performed a pirouette with a triple salto thrown in - nobody near him.
The situation in Greece is replicated in Spain where huge debates take place across the media on the announcement of the officials for the weekend's round of matches. In both countries politics is a root of these controversies with Spain offering the added complication of rampant regionalism.
Comparison with this season in Italy demonstrates how far the FIGC and the Italian government have come in rooting out corruption in Serie A. Remarkable considering it's historical issues.
If only the FA, the Premier League and the backhander brigade at the Department for Corruption Media and Sport would be similarly efficient - Italian football is now considerably less corrupt than English football which is not something that would have been predictable 15 years ago when Murdoch first appeared on the scene.
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