During half time in last night's live Sky game between West Ham and Liverpool, Richard Keys and David Platt spent the majority of their first half summing up banging on about Stuart Pearce and the England U21 manager's post.
As we posted on Monday, Sky want one of the managers on their proprietary roster in charge for the European Championships this summer (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/big-up-for-stuart-pearce.html).
I don't remember any of these fallacious arguments being aired when Steve MacLaren was combining managing Boro and assisting Sven Goran Eriksson. Boro even reached the final of last year's UEFA Cup which directly undermines the main thrust of the Sky stance - namely that Man City will suffer from the duality of Pearce's roles.
There were many aspects of Eriksson that were unseemly from his narcissism to his devotion to the dollar but he was not controlled by the manipulators of English football. In addition to exerting influence over some England players and referees, the British bookmakers strengthen their control by having close ties to management. Once Eriksson was forced out for unwittingly undermining Redknapp in the taping of the fake sheikh interview, MacLaren was always the choice for the bookmakers. Our Trading Team thoroughly analysed the market for the England manager's position and we were backing MacLaren at 14/1 and 20/1 as all the other contenders were disqualified for a range of reasons - unavailability, nationality, incorruptibility, pending criminality situations etc.
Sky already has far too much control of our football. Sky has close links with many individuals within the game and, as we pointed out in the post above, represents these individuals when they are out of employment. You can guarantee that whenever Curbishley, Redknapp, Gregory etc are out of a job that they will keep popping up on Sky telling us how ready they are for a new challenge. Monitoring Sky forms a significant part of our contrary trading as the degree of disinformation on a range of levels is extremely revealing. The combination of SkyBet and Sky television is an enclosed informational monopoly of the type that Murdoch's people exploit throughout their business empire.
Sky and the other British bookmakers are determined to turn English football into the equivalent of British horseracing. The appointment of Pearce is a direct obstacle to this inexorable slide and all true football fans should stand up for Stuart.
I remember as a child getting home after some meaningless shopping trip to watch England win the 1966 World Cup - it really meant something (despite my Irish grandfather cheering on Germany!) and further ignited my interest in football. Today's kids will never have an equivalent thrill as the bookmakers would never allow England to win again. But there is a chance that the U21's could win the European Championships and Pearce has the enthusiasm and the honesty to make that thing happen.
The only downside will be the explosion of xenophobic flag of St George nonsense but, if it winds up the bookmakers, it might just be worth it!
Wednesday, 31 January 2007
Government + Gestalt = Gambling is Good For You
In the light of yesterday's decision to ruin Manchester, it is worth looking at one of the processes that occur when big business and the government desire a particular outcome.
Whenever the New Labour government faces awkward public opposition to it's corporate capitalism projects, they utilise experts from the field of academia to produce "independent" reports that are supportive of the government position. Generally, it's economists that produce these consultative documents.
There are several levels that the public should develop a healthy scepticism towards the independence and quality of these reports. The government is merely using Gestalt theory to manipulate the population to accept the government's reality. In Gestalt, the Persuasion Effect indicates that we are more persuaded by a credible source than by a credible argument - it must be true because he is a professor at a university...
Firstly, if individuals are top-notch economists, they do not choose to languish in the decaying world of the universities. Altruistic dismal scientists are thin on the ground and if an individual is skilled, they choose to work in business, in cutting edge think tanks or on the markets. Hence there is a certain level of lowest common denominator to the quality of their research.
Secondly, these reports are rarely produced by the blue chip universities (Oxbridge, MIT, Harvard etc) as much of the research in these establishments is principled and meticulous which are the last inputs that the government requires.
Thirdly, in the privatised world of university education, the same people are often funding the courses as are benefiting from the "independent" reports produced by the academics.
Fourthly, in the words of James Markusen of the University of Colorado "I am confident that I can concoct a model to generate any result desired by a reader with a deep pocketbook". Much of economics is pseudo-science and the rigours that are applied to true scientific research are simply not replicated. Econometrics is particularly prone to producing fallacious nonsense as cause and effect are frequently totally opaque in much econometric modelling.
An anecdote to illustrate this latter point. When I was researching my PhD at the Centre for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming (CSGCG) at Salford University, my tutor was Professor Neville Topham. The government of the time had employed him to produce an "independent" report to prove that house prices inflate by more than average if the houses in question were under the flight paths at Heathrow Airport. Reasonably, I questioned the logic of this assumption - "surely that is not the case" I opined. "No, of course not, but one can prove anything with economics!".
Whenever the New Labour government faces awkward public opposition to it's corporate capitalism projects, they utilise experts from the field of academia to produce "independent" reports that are supportive of the government position. Generally, it's economists that produce these consultative documents.
There are several levels that the public should develop a healthy scepticism towards the independence and quality of these reports. The government is merely using Gestalt theory to manipulate the population to accept the government's reality. In Gestalt, the Persuasion Effect indicates that we are more persuaded by a credible source than by a credible argument - it must be true because he is a professor at a university...
Firstly, if individuals are top-notch economists, they do not choose to languish in the decaying world of the universities. Altruistic dismal scientists are thin on the ground and if an individual is skilled, they choose to work in business, in cutting edge think tanks or on the markets. Hence there is a certain level of lowest common denominator to the quality of their research.
Secondly, these reports are rarely produced by the blue chip universities (Oxbridge, MIT, Harvard etc) as much of the research in these establishments is principled and meticulous which are the last inputs that the government requires.
Thirdly, in the privatised world of university education, the same people are often funding the courses as are benefiting from the "independent" reports produced by the academics.
Fourthly, in the words of James Markusen of the University of Colorado "I am confident that I can concoct a model to generate any result desired by a reader with a deep pocketbook". Much of economics is pseudo-science and the rigours that are applied to true scientific research are simply not replicated. Econometrics is particularly prone to producing fallacious nonsense as cause and effect are frequently totally opaque in much econometric modelling.
An anecdote to illustrate this latter point. When I was researching my PhD at the Centre for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming (CSGCG) at Salford University, my tutor was Professor Neville Topham. The government of the time had employed him to produce an "independent" report to prove that house prices inflate by more than average if the houses in question were under the flight paths at Heathrow Airport. Reasonably, I questioned the logic of this assumption - "surely that is not the case" I opined. "No, of course not, but one can prove anything with economics!".
Tuesday, 30 January 2007
New Labour Old Criminals
As we incorrectly predicted (see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/new-labours-addiction-to-gambling.html), Manchester has won the race to be the site of the first super-casino in Britain.
Just what the second city needs - an influx of criminals, psychopaths, gamblers, money-launderers and addiction peddlers.
It appears that extensive lobbying by the Hilton Group (the parent company of Ladbrokes bookmakers) won the day - the new Hilton Hotel in Manchester City Centre is the white elephant that most people predicted but becomes prime real estate now Manchester = Las Vegas.
Additionally, government ministers believe they will be able to swiftly relax the current restrictions on super-casinos so that more than one Las Vegas style gambling resort can be built in the UK - so the Millennium Dome will eventually become a site of addictive misery too. Gambling minister Caborn claims that the "benefits" (sic) of regeneration trump the secondary issue of gambling addiction. Really?
The urban regeneration will exist of spectacular society nonsense like posh hotels and pseudo-malls together with the reclamation of private property for "civic" projects while Gamcare's offices, prostitution, the homeless and pawnbrokers will proliferate on the back streets.
The city would be better suited with real urban regeneration - affordable and abundant council accommodation, redevelopment of existing communities, a functioning health service and government money being spent on real things that affect real people.
What a nightmare!
Just what the second city needs - an influx of criminals, psychopaths, gamblers, money-launderers and addiction peddlers.
It appears that extensive lobbying by the Hilton Group (the parent company of Ladbrokes bookmakers) won the day - the new Hilton Hotel in Manchester City Centre is the white elephant that most people predicted but becomes prime real estate now Manchester = Las Vegas.
Additionally, government ministers believe they will be able to swiftly relax the current restrictions on super-casinos so that more than one Las Vegas style gambling resort can be built in the UK - so the Millennium Dome will eventually become a site of addictive misery too. Gambling minister Caborn claims that the "benefits" (sic) of regeneration trump the secondary issue of gambling addiction. Really?
The urban regeneration will exist of spectacular society nonsense like posh hotels and pseudo-malls together with the reclamation of private property for "civic" projects while Gamcare's offices, prostitution, the homeless and pawnbrokers will proliferate on the back streets.
The city would be better suited with real urban regeneration - affordable and abundant council accommodation, redevelopment of existing communities, a functioning health service and government money being spent on real things that affect real people.
What a nightmare!
Monday, 29 January 2007
A Big Up for Stuart Pearce
It seems as though Stuart Pearce is to be the new England U21 manager. Good. Alongside Martin O'Neill, Pearce is one up the few incorruptible managers in the English game and the culture at Manchester City has progressed in leaps and bounds since he became manager replacing the duplicitous Kevin Keegan. He was even astute enough to get rid of David "Liability" James.
Our Trading Team is fortunate to have a "spy" in the Sky empire and the choice of Pearce has really pissed off the Sky people.
Sky operates as a publicity machine for managers who are in their pay but are currently redundant - Hoddle, Wilkins, Souness, Reid and the like. Sky were strongly pushing to exert a control over the England U21 set up at a managerial level. The U21 games are featured on Sky Television and it is almost impossible for Sky to gain control of the young players in the squad (unlike at a senior level).
The England U21's have reached the finals of the European Championships this summer and, with the selection of Pearce, actually have a reasonable chance of winning it.
This is good for English football and bad for Sky and the bookmakers.
Wow! Good news if you are English.
Our Trading Team is fortunate to have a "spy" in the Sky empire and the choice of Pearce has really pissed off the Sky people.
Sky operates as a publicity machine for managers who are in their pay but are currently redundant - Hoddle, Wilkins, Souness, Reid and the like. Sky were strongly pushing to exert a control over the England U21 set up at a managerial level. The U21 games are featured on Sky Television and it is almost impossible for Sky to gain control of the young players in the squad (unlike at a senior level).
The England U21's have reached the finals of the European Championships this summer and, with the selection of Pearce, actually have a reasonable chance of winning it.
This is good for English football and bad for Sky and the bookmakers.
Wow! Good news if you are English.
We're Flirty Northern Bastards
Dietrological continues to leave other football information services in it's wake with ten out of thirteen advices coming up trumps at the weekend. Bolton, Siena, Fiorentina, Lazio and Schalke were particularly rewarding.
In 2007, we are achieving 82% winners at a return on investment (ROI) of close to 50%. None of our competitors are in the same league.
There are no free places for the semi-exclusive Dietrological Platinum as we restrict the number of recipients but we will be launching Dietrological Gold after Chinese New Year. More details to be announced when available.
In 2007, we are achieving 82% winners at a return on investment (ROI) of close to 50%. None of our competitors are in the same league.
There are no free places for the semi-exclusive Dietrological Platinum as we restrict the number of recipients but we will be launching Dietrological Gold after Chinese New Year. More details to be announced when available.
Sunday, 28 January 2007
Don't Criticise the Refs and Other Miscellanea
Following this week's meeting between Keith Hackett - head of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) - and BBC tv and radio journalists regarding criticism of the refereeing standards on the beeb, we expected a reaction this weekend.
We got it. Mark Lawrenson virtually proposed marriage to Mike Riley during the early stages of the Man Utd v Arms Dealer's Son XI game yesterday. Then he was hoisted by his own petard as each of the assistant referees made appalling decisions costing United two certain goals. In the end, thanks to Rooney's brilliance, it was of no significance but we don't think that there will be much focus on dubious decisions in the weeks ahead on BBC.
If the BBC behaves, perhaps Ferguson, Redknapp and Allardyce will agree to be interviewed again... can't wait.
Additionally, although it is stating the obvious, Vidic and Larsson's goals would have been detected by utilising video technology. It is no surprise that Arsène Wenger's first reaction to the election of Michel Platini was to call for the use of such technology as his team has suffered the most this season.
A couple of related extra miscellaneous angles.
Firstly, the British bookmakers are petrified of a Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal televised treble this weekend. Mike Dean referees Gunners v Bolton.
Secondly, the shenanigans surrounding 4th place in the Premiership over the last two seasons (the food poisoning of Spurs players and Everton's demotion to allow Liverpool in) are a clear indication that the major leagues will not allow Platini to reduce the number of Champions League qualifiers in Spain, Italy and England. There is serious money involved here and, in UEFA, money talks. We can't imagine a time where the the Big 4 in England aren't selected for qualification.
We got it. Mark Lawrenson virtually proposed marriage to Mike Riley during the early stages of the Man Utd v Arms Dealer's Son XI game yesterday. Then he was hoisted by his own petard as each of the assistant referees made appalling decisions costing United two certain goals. In the end, thanks to Rooney's brilliance, it was of no significance but we don't think that there will be much focus on dubious decisions in the weeks ahead on BBC.
If the BBC behaves, perhaps Ferguson, Redknapp and Allardyce will agree to be interviewed again... can't wait.
Additionally, although it is stating the obvious, Vidic and Larsson's goals would have been detected by utilising video technology. It is no surprise that Arsène Wenger's first reaction to the election of Michel Platini was to call for the use of such technology as his team has suffered the most this season.
A couple of related extra miscellaneous angles.
Firstly, the British bookmakers are petrified of a Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal televised treble this weekend. Mike Dean referees Gunners v Bolton.
Secondly, the shenanigans surrounding 4th place in the Premiership over the last two seasons (the food poisoning of Spurs players and Everton's demotion to allow Liverpool in) are a clear indication that the major leagues will not allow Platini to reduce the number of Champions League qualifiers in Spain, Italy and England. There is serious money involved here and, in UEFA, money talks. We can't imagine a time where the the Big 4 in England aren't selected for qualification.
The Magic of the Cup Sold for Cash
The vast majority of professional traders in Asia treat the FA Cup with disdain. Since the FA became politicised and commercial, there is a new template each season as the powers-that-be target the outcomes that best inflate their bottom line.
The magic of the competition used to be that journeymen lower league players were able to play on a level playing field against the Mcmansion owning celebrities. No longer is this the case and the magic has been removed accordingly.
Let's check out a few of the manipulative mechanisms.
Firstly, every Premiership club has the advantage of a Premiership official when playing against lower league opposition. These match officials interact on both a professional and private level with the top tier clubs on a weekly basis and such friendly familiarity spills into their on field decision making in the FA Cup.
Secondly, the FA develops agendas as the competition progresses. For example, one concern in the 4th Round was the chance of there being no club from the north east or Yorkshire in the later stages. Better get Poll on the Boro game then (he denied Bristol City a penalty at 2-2). A further concern was the likelihood of too many lower league clubs progressing to Round 5. Such an outcome would lead to imbalanced events and colossal betting liabilities as the likes of Man Utd potentially faced Bristol Rovers. The solution was simple. Stop the magic happening. 70 minutes into their game at Derby, Bristol Rovers had a man sent off at 0-0 having earlier been denied a valid goal; Swansea lost via a penalty at Ipswich; Plymouth took the lead through a late penalty at Barnet; Blackpool were denied two penalties against Norwich. The job's a good'un.
Thirdly, because many lower Premiership clubs (eg Charlton and Sheff Utd) deliberately exit the cup to concentrate on league survival and because the bookies insist on high profile matches in the early rounds to engender betting turnover (Liverpool v Arsenal; Man Utd v Villa; Arsenal v Bolton; Man Utd v Pompey; Everton v Blackburn etc), there exists an imperative around this stage of the competition to ensure that the remaining Premiership teams qualify. Otherwise, magic would rear it's ugly head again.
Fourthly, the draw for the competition is fixed. We have been told by an insider how the FA go about achieving the draw required (and this situation is replicated in UEFA and FIFA competitions). Careful choice of the individuals to make the draw accompanied by "variations" in the vessels indicating the choice of club ensure the necessary outcome. Indeed, it is an interesting fact that only one of the people making the draw needs to be "owned". Think about it!
The public ain't stupid. Yesterday's attendances were atrocious. Nobody wants to pay for overpriced and branded crap.
In a recent vote, the public voted Hereford against Newcastle as the best tie ever. Magic! Many of the best finals always involved a lower team fighting against top teams (Liverpool v Wimbledon and Man Utd v Southampton for instance). This will not happen in future as the FA and their sponsors won't allow it. It costs them cash.
It doesn't seem that long ago that the Luddites were concerned about selling the name of the FA Cup to sponsors - how the structure has since changed!
The magic of the competition used to be that journeymen lower league players were able to play on a level playing field against the Mcmansion owning celebrities. No longer is this the case and the magic has been removed accordingly.
Let's check out a few of the manipulative mechanisms.
Firstly, every Premiership club has the advantage of a Premiership official when playing against lower league opposition. These match officials interact on both a professional and private level with the top tier clubs on a weekly basis and such friendly familiarity spills into their on field decision making in the FA Cup.
Secondly, the FA develops agendas as the competition progresses. For example, one concern in the 4th Round was the chance of there being no club from the north east or Yorkshire in the later stages. Better get Poll on the Boro game then (he denied Bristol City a penalty at 2-2). A further concern was the likelihood of too many lower league clubs progressing to Round 5. Such an outcome would lead to imbalanced events and colossal betting liabilities as the likes of Man Utd potentially faced Bristol Rovers. The solution was simple. Stop the magic happening. 70 minutes into their game at Derby, Bristol Rovers had a man sent off at 0-0 having earlier been denied a valid goal; Swansea lost via a penalty at Ipswich; Plymouth took the lead through a late penalty at Barnet; Blackpool were denied two penalties against Norwich. The job's a good'un.
Thirdly, because many lower Premiership clubs (eg Charlton and Sheff Utd) deliberately exit the cup to concentrate on league survival and because the bookies insist on high profile matches in the early rounds to engender betting turnover (Liverpool v Arsenal; Man Utd v Villa; Arsenal v Bolton; Man Utd v Pompey; Everton v Blackburn etc), there exists an imperative around this stage of the competition to ensure that the remaining Premiership teams qualify. Otherwise, magic would rear it's ugly head again.
Fourthly, the draw for the competition is fixed. We have been told by an insider how the FA go about achieving the draw required (and this situation is replicated in UEFA and FIFA competitions). Careful choice of the individuals to make the draw accompanied by "variations" in the vessels indicating the choice of club ensure the necessary outcome. Indeed, it is an interesting fact that only one of the people making the draw needs to be "owned". Think about it!
The public ain't stupid. Yesterday's attendances were atrocious. Nobody wants to pay for overpriced and branded crap.
In a recent vote, the public voted Hereford against Newcastle as the best tie ever. Magic! Many of the best finals always involved a lower team fighting against top teams (Liverpool v Wimbledon and Man Utd v Southampton for instance). This will not happen in future as the FA and their sponsors won't allow it. It costs them cash.
It doesn't seem that long ago that the Luddites were concerned about selling the name of the FA Cup to sponsors - how the structure has since changed!
Saturday, 27 January 2007
Chaotic Systems
Regular readers will have concluded by now that we are not convinced as to the universal validity of neoclassical economics. The acceptance of the rationality of human beings simply does not match up with market realities.
We intend producing a series of posts in the coming months focusing on behavioural economics and how psychology drives the dynamics of all financial markets.
Firstly, we need to have a brief overview of chaotic systems.
A structured system is regarded as chaotic when the processes observed appear to be random. Chaos generally occurs via feedback loops and all complex systems are made up of a multiplicity of such loops. One must utilise non-linear mathematics to evaluate these systems as traditional economics does not accommodate the destabilising impacts of the feedback loops.
Many structures, from markets to climate, have more than one stable equilibrium position (known as bifurcations). The reason for bifurcations is that there is a sudden dramatic change in the dominance of different feedback loops. An example related to climate would be the Ice Ages. Ervin Laszlo separated out the factors that might influence feedback loops in economic systems into three categories - technical innovation, conflicts and social/ economic disturbances.
Benoit Mandelbrot introduced the idea of fractals whereby a system may continually repeat it's patterns on a range of different scales - this is called self-simulation. An example would be the coast of an island - Mandelbrot proved that such a coast is infinitely long depending upon one's perspective ie the closer one looks, the longer the coast becomes.
The behaviour of chaotic systems is difficult to analyse but it is analysable. Random walk theorists are simply wrong in their assessment of randomness. It is merely a question of developing suitable trading models in combination with holistic experience. The best traders maintain a consistent edge.
In future posts, we will demonstrate how personality disorders and styles may be built in to models for trading financial markets.
We intend producing a series of posts in the coming months focusing on behavioural economics and how psychology drives the dynamics of all financial markets.
Firstly, we need to have a brief overview of chaotic systems.
A structured system is regarded as chaotic when the processes observed appear to be random. Chaos generally occurs via feedback loops and all complex systems are made up of a multiplicity of such loops. One must utilise non-linear mathematics to evaluate these systems as traditional economics does not accommodate the destabilising impacts of the feedback loops.
Many structures, from markets to climate, have more than one stable equilibrium position (known as bifurcations). The reason for bifurcations is that there is a sudden dramatic change in the dominance of different feedback loops. An example related to climate would be the Ice Ages. Ervin Laszlo separated out the factors that might influence feedback loops in economic systems into three categories - technical innovation, conflicts and social/ economic disturbances.
Benoit Mandelbrot introduced the idea of fractals whereby a system may continually repeat it's patterns on a range of different scales - this is called self-simulation. An example would be the coast of an island - Mandelbrot proved that such a coast is infinitely long depending upon one's perspective ie the closer one looks, the longer the coast becomes.
The behaviour of chaotic systems is difficult to analyse but it is analysable. Random walk theorists are simply wrong in their assessment of randomness. It is merely a question of developing suitable trading models in combination with holistic experience. The best traders maintain a consistent edge.
In future posts, we will demonstrate how personality disorders and styles may be built in to models for trading financial markets.
Friday, 26 January 2007
You Can't Play Cricket - Oh No!
The Australians celebrated Australia Day by moving 9 - 0 ahead of England in the Ashes, One Dayers and Twenty/20 games this winter. The Poms have not even managed a draw.
The posher papers in England have been providing huge amounts of column centimetres to analysing this pitiful performance. We would like to add a few of our own.
Firstly, after the Aussies had moved 8 - 0 ahead, there were positive statements in the press along the lines that "we only just lost this one". Such defeatist claptrap would never emanate from an Australian mouth. I was once informed that the first sport that youngsters take up compulsorily at the Australian Cricket Academy is boxing - can't imagine Bell or Giles or Panesar getting involved in that.
Secondly, the best young cricketers in, for example, Manchester are all from a South Asian background. The reluctance of the England selectors to pick Panesar is indicative of a racism that spreads right down to the grassroots of the game. Asian youngsters in Manchester are marginalised at local clubs even if they are able to sneak past the semi-masonic entrance requirements. Cricket is years behind football in taking advantage of the wonderful multiculturalism in England.
Thirdly, some England players from the recent past and the present are actively involved in the spread betting markets (I include three recent former captains in this group). There was considerable focus on Mohammad Azharradin and Salim Malik when their betting was exposed - the punishment for the England players was a job reporting for Sky Television.
Fourthly. it's a grudge thing. Britain is rightly despised for it's colonial past down under. Many Aussies trace their roots back to the prison ships landing at Botany Bay after their ancestors had been forcibly removed from their homes during the British occupation of Ireland. This has become a matter of inverted snobbery pride.
Fifthly, there is no strength in depth to English cricket - the best player is a South African, for instance. Today's victory by 9 wickets with more than half of the overs still remaining was accomplished without Warne, McGrath, Langer or Martyn all of whom would walk into the England team (even post-retirement).
There is little point dwelling on the death of English cricket as that happened many years ago - around the time of Basil D'Oliveira, I reckon.
The posher papers in England have been providing huge amounts of column centimetres to analysing this pitiful performance. We would like to add a few of our own.
Firstly, after the Aussies had moved 8 - 0 ahead, there were positive statements in the press along the lines that "we only just lost this one". Such defeatist claptrap would never emanate from an Australian mouth. I was once informed that the first sport that youngsters take up compulsorily at the Australian Cricket Academy is boxing - can't imagine Bell or Giles or Panesar getting involved in that.
Secondly, the best young cricketers in, for example, Manchester are all from a South Asian background. The reluctance of the England selectors to pick Panesar is indicative of a racism that spreads right down to the grassroots of the game. Asian youngsters in Manchester are marginalised at local clubs even if they are able to sneak past the semi-masonic entrance requirements. Cricket is years behind football in taking advantage of the wonderful multiculturalism in England.
Thirdly, some England players from the recent past and the present are actively involved in the spread betting markets (I include three recent former captains in this group). There was considerable focus on Mohammad Azharradin and Salim Malik when their betting was exposed - the punishment for the England players was a job reporting for Sky Television.
Fourthly. it's a grudge thing. Britain is rightly despised for it's colonial past down under. Many Aussies trace their roots back to the prison ships landing at Botany Bay after their ancestors had been forcibly removed from their homes during the British occupation of Ireland. This has become a matter of inverted snobbery pride.
Fifthly, there is no strength in depth to English cricket - the best player is a South African, for instance. Today's victory by 9 wickets with more than half of the overs still remaining was accomplished without Warne, McGrath, Langer or Martyn all of whom would walk into the England team (even post-retirement).
There is little point dwelling on the death of English cricket as that happened many years ago - around the time of Basil D'Oliveira, I reckon.
Too Many Hamburgers?
The Bundesliga restarts today after the winter break and much attention will be on Hamburg. Last year Thomas Doll's team achieved 3rd place in the German top flight to qualify for this season's Champions League. This was a considerable improvement on the previous year's mid-table position and there was a general expectation that season 2006/07 would be a memorable one for HSV.
Well, it has certainly been memorable to date. Hamburg sit second bottom of the Bundesliga with only one victory in 17 games and they exited the Champions League at the group stage with their only points coming in their final game when they were already eliminated. 2 wins in 23 games!! In addition, the team looks physically shattered after being the fittest team in Germany last year.
There are potentially some parallels here with the situation with Bayer Leverkusen between seasons 2001/02 and 2002/03 (for details see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fundamentals-drugs-in-football.html).
The northerners have had six weeks to recuperate and Saturday's visit to Arminia Bielefeld will be monitored closely by fans and traders alike.
Well, it has certainly been memorable to date. Hamburg sit second bottom of the Bundesliga with only one victory in 17 games and they exited the Champions League at the group stage with their only points coming in their final game when they were already eliminated. 2 wins in 23 games!! In addition, the team looks physically shattered after being the fittest team in Germany last year.
There are potentially some parallels here with the situation with Bayer Leverkusen between seasons 2001/02 and 2002/03 (for details see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/fundamentals-drugs-in-football.html).
The northerners have had six weeks to recuperate and Saturday's visit to Arminia Bielefeld will be monitored closely by fans and traders alike.
Thursday, 25 January 2007
Modus Operandi of Corruption in English Football
Conspiracy Theories (CTs) are fiendishly problematic to prove analytically as very few of us are close enough to the levers of power to determine the structure and it is consequently extremely difficult to differentiate between reality, spin and disinformation.
Fortunately, organised corruption in football does not fall into this category and, in this post, we focus on why we are convinced that some referees are corrupting the game in the interests of bookmakers.
Prior to going any further, we must state the limitations of this article. For legal reasons and in the interests of our proprietary trading, we will not name any of the individuals or companies. Our lawyers are risk averse and we thrive on our isolationism.
The Premiership referee roster features 19 officials. Our Trading Team have thoroughly analysed the performances of each of these officials for the duration of their involvements in the league. We assess their holistic decision making and any biases exhibited in every single game. This is excruciatingly boring but vitally necessary as the manipulation is often very subtle.
A few of these officials show a statistically significant and very disturbing inverse correlation between their decision making and the liabilities experienced by certain market makers. Put simply, if the bookmakers will lose heavily on a victory for Team A then the referees favour Team B.
Although the market analysis is extremely complex this is corruption, pure and simple.
As we have stated before, we make money out of analysing this corruption as do several other top Trading Teams. The officials and the bookmakers involved in the corruption make considerably more money than us but everybody else loses - the fans, most clubs, the leisure punter and the game. Additionally, global betting turnover on the Premiership varies between £5m and £200m per game so referees can have marked financial consequences for both traders and layers across the planet. Effectively, corruption goes hand in hand with the market manipulation.
Some players and clubs are separately involved in manipulating the outcomes of games in which they are involved - this type of behaviour may be in league with the bookies or solely an internal affair. The analytical situation in the former case is akin to the structure with respect to referees while, in the latter case, the key is to determine where these people are placing their money.
The most difficult form of corruption to analyse is undoubtedly the rogue operator - an individual who acts on his own and trades secretly. The prime way to root out such players is to monitor their performances when their club faces a structural breakpoint. For example, if we suspect that a player is a rogue operator, we await a change in management at the club. This individual must now perform well in the early part of the new regime to convince the new manager of his abilities otherwise his options for external future earnings will be undermined. We would then expect him to return to type once he has cemented his place in the team. Generally, we are still not able to be secure in our knowledge of when this particular player will be hot and when not but we are now certain of his identity at least.
We've detailed extensively in other posts how to deal with manipulative collaboration between bookmakers and match officials. With regard to players and/or clubs, it must be made illegal for active participants in games to trade on either their own or, indeed, any other match. When Gianluigi Buffon is discovered in possession of betting slips totalling £2m Euros and an unnamed Premiership manager allegedly bet £12m with Victor Chandler in one season, the potential for corruption is too great to ignore.
The assertion by Graeme Souness that English football is "the most honest in the world" still causes raucous laughter around the trading room.
Fortunately, organised corruption in football does not fall into this category and, in this post, we focus on why we are convinced that some referees are corrupting the game in the interests of bookmakers.
Prior to going any further, we must state the limitations of this article. For legal reasons and in the interests of our proprietary trading, we will not name any of the individuals or companies. Our lawyers are risk averse and we thrive on our isolationism.
The Premiership referee roster features 19 officials. Our Trading Team have thoroughly analysed the performances of each of these officials for the duration of their involvements in the league. We assess their holistic decision making and any biases exhibited in every single game. This is excruciatingly boring but vitally necessary as the manipulation is often very subtle.
A few of these officials show a statistically significant and very disturbing inverse correlation between their decision making and the liabilities experienced by certain market makers. Put simply, if the bookmakers will lose heavily on a victory for Team A then the referees favour Team B.
Although the market analysis is extremely complex this is corruption, pure and simple.
As we have stated before, we make money out of analysing this corruption as do several other top Trading Teams. The officials and the bookmakers involved in the corruption make considerably more money than us but everybody else loses - the fans, most clubs, the leisure punter and the game. Additionally, global betting turnover on the Premiership varies between £5m and £200m per game so referees can have marked financial consequences for both traders and layers across the planet. Effectively, corruption goes hand in hand with the market manipulation.
Some players and clubs are separately involved in manipulating the outcomes of games in which they are involved - this type of behaviour may be in league with the bookies or solely an internal affair. The analytical situation in the former case is akin to the structure with respect to referees while, in the latter case, the key is to determine where these people are placing their money.
The most difficult form of corruption to analyse is undoubtedly the rogue operator - an individual who acts on his own and trades secretly. The prime way to root out such players is to monitor their performances when their club faces a structural breakpoint. For example, if we suspect that a player is a rogue operator, we await a change in management at the club. This individual must now perform well in the early part of the new regime to convince the new manager of his abilities otherwise his options for external future earnings will be undermined. We would then expect him to return to type once he has cemented his place in the team. Generally, we are still not able to be secure in our knowledge of when this particular player will be hot and when not but we are now certain of his identity at least.
We've detailed extensively in other posts how to deal with manipulative collaboration between bookmakers and match officials. With regard to players and/or clubs, it must be made illegal for active participants in games to trade on either their own or, indeed, any other match. When Gianluigi Buffon is discovered in possession of betting slips totalling £2m Euros and an unnamed Premiership manager allegedly bet £12m with Victor Chandler in one season, the potential for corruption is too great to ignore.
The assertion by Graeme Souness that English football is "the most honest in the world" still causes raucous laughter around the trading room.
Wednesday, 24 January 2007
Ho Chi Minh City Shows London The Way Forward
Yesterday in Vietnam, 8 soccer players went on trial charged with rigging an international game against Myanmar in the 2005 South East Asian Games in the Phillipines.
The corruption was allegedly undertaken on behalf of a betting syndicate who desired that the Vietnamese only beat their opponents by 1 goal which they duly did. All of the players and the supposed middleman face lengthy jail sentences as the Vietnamese authorities attempt to clean up the game in a country renowned for it's corrupt football markets.
Our Asian colleagues have shown us the betting patterns for the game and, unsurprisingly, they show a remarkable similarity to England international matches when a similar performance outcome is required by the bookmakers.
As we have stated previously, British betting turnover on England internationals is stratospheric. The excessive nationalism that exists in the country results in many leisure punters betting in a xenophobic manner on England whatever the realities of the game. Consequently, the bookies have huge liabilities on England victories. The layers accomodate this situation by reducing the price offered on England to minimise value and by working alongside people within the England camp to achieve a desired result. As far as our Trading Team are aware, there are three players around the England set up who operate in this manner. The bookmakers manipulator of choice is always the referee but, in international games, they depend upon the squad and, in such instances, management, goalkeepers and forwards are most frequently targeted. On a playing level, there are issues for the British bookies at the moment as one of these 3 players is not in the team and another is injured. This puts a colossal onus on the one remaining individual.
Vietnam has survived the birth defects and defoliation caused by US forces using Agent Orange in the 60's and being the slavery centre of choice in SE Asia for the globalisation brigade today (due to a total absence of worker's rights). Somebody should be writing the modern day Vietnamese equivalent of Joseph Conrad's "Heart of Darkness" (which detailed the horrendous human rights abuses involved in Belgium's King Leopold II's slave camps in the Congo).
For a Third World poverty centre to be addressing corruption in the international sporting arena while, in England, such corruption is totally accepted within the game is a clear indication of the lack of institutional integrity that exists in mother England today. It also indicates a type of contrary trading that is profitable - selective betting against England is a nice little earner!
The corruption was allegedly undertaken on behalf of a betting syndicate who desired that the Vietnamese only beat their opponents by 1 goal which they duly did. All of the players and the supposed middleman face lengthy jail sentences as the Vietnamese authorities attempt to clean up the game in a country renowned for it's corrupt football markets.
Our Asian colleagues have shown us the betting patterns for the game and, unsurprisingly, they show a remarkable similarity to England international matches when a similar performance outcome is required by the bookmakers.
As we have stated previously, British betting turnover on England internationals is stratospheric. The excessive nationalism that exists in the country results in many leisure punters betting in a xenophobic manner on England whatever the realities of the game. Consequently, the bookies have huge liabilities on England victories. The layers accomodate this situation by reducing the price offered on England to minimise value and by working alongside people within the England camp to achieve a desired result. As far as our Trading Team are aware, there are three players around the England set up who operate in this manner. The bookmakers manipulator of choice is always the referee but, in international games, they depend upon the squad and, in such instances, management, goalkeepers and forwards are most frequently targeted. On a playing level, there are issues for the British bookies at the moment as one of these 3 players is not in the team and another is injured. This puts a colossal onus on the one remaining individual.
Vietnam has survived the birth defects and defoliation caused by US forces using Agent Orange in the 60's and being the slavery centre of choice in SE Asia for the globalisation brigade today (due to a total absence of worker's rights). Somebody should be writing the modern day Vietnamese equivalent of Joseph Conrad's "Heart of Darkness" (which detailed the horrendous human rights abuses involved in Belgium's King Leopold II's slave camps in the Congo).
For a Third World poverty centre to be addressing corruption in the international sporting arena while, in England, such corruption is totally accepted within the game is a clear indication of the lack of institutional integrity that exists in mother England today. It also indicates a type of contrary trading that is profitable - selective betting against England is a nice little earner!
Happiness is not a Positive Cashflow
Dismal scientists are spending more and more time attempting to determine why their beloved system fails to make them happy. As individuals become richer, their degree of contentment doesn't increase. In fact, some surveys show us to be less happy on average now than we were 30 years ago.
After addressing various psychological reasons for this reality, economists have come up with three big thoughts. Firstly, luxuries are only luxuries if they are available only to the chosen few. The nature of consumerism means that, even though what were once luxuries are now generally possessed, we constantly desire what we can't have. Secondly, the infrastructure of a rat race forces people to work harder in their niches to compensate for the work that their competitors may be putting in. This eats into leisure time and results in unhappiness. Thirdly, the stuff that is marketed to us is not worthy of our time or money. Most developments are incremental and there are not enough ground-breaking products to satisfy our needs.
So, they throw their hands up in the air and claim that, in the words of The Economist, "to find the market system wanting because it does not bring joy as well as growth is to place too heavy a burden on it". Really?
Consumerism does not make us happy because it is an addiction - no different in cost and effect than heroin, crack cocaine and nicotine. Addictions provide a short-term high and don't contribute to your overall happiness but merely disguise your underlying unhappiness. Also, there is a global consciousness which, according to Sartre, means that no one is free until everyone is free. The miseries of the Third World prevent us from enjoying the fruits of an abusive system.
John Stuart Mill provides the best description of happiness. "Those only are happy who have their minds fixed on some object other than their own happiness - on the happiness of others; on the improvement of mankind; even on some art or pursuit - followed not as a means but, as itself, an ideal end. Aiming thus at something else, they find happiness by the way".
Altruism, social living and leisure - sounds good to me. Anybody want to buy a second hand Rolex?
After addressing various psychological reasons for this reality, economists have come up with three big thoughts. Firstly, luxuries are only luxuries if they are available only to the chosen few. The nature of consumerism means that, even though what were once luxuries are now generally possessed, we constantly desire what we can't have. Secondly, the infrastructure of a rat race forces people to work harder in their niches to compensate for the work that their competitors may be putting in. This eats into leisure time and results in unhappiness. Thirdly, the stuff that is marketed to us is not worthy of our time or money. Most developments are incremental and there are not enough ground-breaking products to satisfy our needs.
So, they throw their hands up in the air and claim that, in the words of The Economist, "to find the market system wanting because it does not bring joy as well as growth is to place too heavy a burden on it". Really?
Consumerism does not make us happy because it is an addiction - no different in cost and effect than heroin, crack cocaine and nicotine. Addictions provide a short-term high and don't contribute to your overall happiness but merely disguise your underlying unhappiness. Also, there is a global consciousness which, according to Sartre, means that no one is free until everyone is free. The miseries of the Third World prevent us from enjoying the fruits of an abusive system.
John Stuart Mill provides the best description of happiness. "Those only are happy who have their minds fixed on some object other than their own happiness - on the happiness of others; on the improvement of mankind; even on some art or pursuit - followed not as a means but, as itself, an ideal end. Aiming thus at something else, they find happiness by the way".
Altruism, social living and leisure - sounds good to me. Anybody want to buy a second hand Rolex?
And The Clock Continues To Count Down...
Welcome to the opening day of the World Economic Forum 2007 in Davos.
Although much hot air will be produced by both the delegates and the protestors in Switzerland, the majority of the output from the event will be of minimal real significance. The reason being that there is only one subject that matters - climate change.
One of the many absurdities of neoliberal capitalism is that it possesses a built in obsolescence. As we have stated previously, many of the movers and shakers in business, World Government and the military suffer from Psychopathic Personality Disorder (PPDs) - for details, see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/psychopathic-personality-disorder.html. Some of the underlying issues relating to PPDs are short-termism, no responsibility for the impact of their actions and a life goal to achieve power and prosperity by monopolistic abuse. Due to globalisation, the prize for the psychopathic man is greater than at any time in history. The downside for the rest of the planet is that these psychopathic individuals are making psychopathic decisions that effect all of us in all areas of our life in a manner not seen before in history.
There are individuals in power positions who are able to plan strategically and the future of our planet depends on the likes of Soros, Gates, Buffett, Gore and Paulson. If these individuals are unable to sway the PPDs then the clock is counting down to armageddon - one of the key problems to be built in to any analysis of our future is that many on the religious right see such an outcome as inevitable and proof that their god is coming to save them and them alone. Such absolutism is illogical and frightening. These are generally the same individuals who don't believe in birth control which is one of the main areas that must be addressed to prevent global catastrophe.
In the financial markets, there are concerns about the impact of feedback loops on the financial system. Due to the free movement of capital, computerised and speculative trading, there is the probability that a key global breakpoint will lead to a spiralling of reactions known as feedback loops. The financial system is stretched deliberately to it's limits to engender as much growth (and return to shareholders) as possible. If one of the big Hedge Funds or one of the big economies (the US has a housing bubble, no savings, a massive Current Account Deficit, a weak currency and is overstretched militarily) goes belly up, economists are uncertain as to the knock-on effects of such uproar.
The same issue of feedback loops permeate the analysis relating to climate change. Some of the major problems that will occur as climate change affects all of our existences are rising sea level, loss of biodiversity, loss of land mass, financial systemic volatility, transport gridlock, spiralling insurance, rampant population movement, global pandemics, lack of carbon sinks, pollution, climatic instability, industrial destruction, military conflict relating to water and land etc etc.
No computer model is able to predict the manner in which these individual realities will interact with one another via feedback loops. Additionally, some of the "solutions" currently being promoted by the globalisation brigade are laughably naive. For example, biodiesel is being pushed to reduce CO2 emissions. The amount of land and water required to achieve this changeover is scientifically invalid ie not enough land and not enough water. Hiding behind fake science is a standard tactic of the PPDs brigade.
Market Analysts, Speculators and Traders who play the global markets are fully aware of the impact of the short-sightedness of the PPDs with regard to climate change. The whole structure of the financial system depends on the concept of Market Efficiency but the mid-long term impact of climate change is not factored into the pricing mechanism. Currently, there is massive global liquidity due to the new slavery of globalisation. This is not sustainable. The markets are effervescent due to India and China (and their 2 billion people) coming online as consumers and producers. This is merely short-termist creative destruction. If China and India do industrialise to the extent that the globalisers desire, we are doomed. The brinkmanship of World Government is clearly demonstrated wherever one chooses to look.
The strategists amongst the elite (sic) are aware of the only option other than global destruction - massive economic slowdown on a scale that will make the 1929 Depression seem like a walk in the park. The prime reason that "defined-contribution" pensions schemes are being foisted on employees to replace the original "defined-benefit" option is that the neocons don't wish to have future financial liabilities and responsibilities. Employees, as ever, will take the full force of the mega-recession. We would strongly advise all and sundry to sell any shares, bonds or other links to a system that is past it's sell-by date. Otherwise, you will find yourselves sympathising with the great Groucho Marx who lost a quarter of a million dollars in one day in 1929 - "I have worked myself up from nothing to a state of extreme poverty". In addition to the evidence of our reality, Market Analysts see structures in the system that are indicative of a fall in the markets. We are literally short-selling the system as traders.
The feedback loops on the ground, so to speak, are nothing compared to the atmospheric feedback loops. Atmospheric science depends heavily on computer modelling as laboratories cannot hope to replicate the complexities of the system. We simply do not know the knock on effects of climate change atmospherically. However, the planet Venus (our nearest neighbour) shows Astronomers what happens when these feedback loops pass the point of no return. A rational and risk-averse planet would proceed with caution while incrementally determining the dangers inherent in the system. Shareholder capitalism insists on putting the financial profit cart before the global environment horse.
One of our Trading Team was invited to Davos due to some consultative work undertaken on behalf of Goldman Sachs. He would probably have been the first Libertarian Socialist to attend such a gathering! Instead, he chose to attend the World Social Forum in Nairobi to address "Africa and her unbroken history of struggle against foreign domination, colonialism and neocolonialism". A far preferable choice, I think you will agree.
Although much hot air will be produced by both the delegates and the protestors in Switzerland, the majority of the output from the event will be of minimal real significance. The reason being that there is only one subject that matters - climate change.
One of the many absurdities of neoliberal capitalism is that it possesses a built in obsolescence. As we have stated previously, many of the movers and shakers in business, World Government and the military suffer from Psychopathic Personality Disorder (PPDs) - for details, see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/psychopathic-personality-disorder.html. Some of the underlying issues relating to PPDs are short-termism, no responsibility for the impact of their actions and a life goal to achieve power and prosperity by monopolistic abuse. Due to globalisation, the prize for the psychopathic man is greater than at any time in history. The downside for the rest of the planet is that these psychopathic individuals are making psychopathic decisions that effect all of us in all areas of our life in a manner not seen before in history.
There are individuals in power positions who are able to plan strategically and the future of our planet depends on the likes of Soros, Gates, Buffett, Gore and Paulson. If these individuals are unable to sway the PPDs then the clock is counting down to armageddon - one of the key problems to be built in to any analysis of our future is that many on the religious right see such an outcome as inevitable and proof that their god is coming to save them and them alone. Such absolutism is illogical and frightening. These are generally the same individuals who don't believe in birth control which is one of the main areas that must be addressed to prevent global catastrophe.
In the financial markets, there are concerns about the impact of feedback loops on the financial system. Due to the free movement of capital, computerised and speculative trading, there is the probability that a key global breakpoint will lead to a spiralling of reactions known as feedback loops. The financial system is stretched deliberately to it's limits to engender as much growth (and return to shareholders) as possible. If one of the big Hedge Funds or one of the big economies (the US has a housing bubble, no savings, a massive Current Account Deficit, a weak currency and is overstretched militarily) goes belly up, economists are uncertain as to the knock-on effects of such uproar.
The same issue of feedback loops permeate the analysis relating to climate change. Some of the major problems that will occur as climate change affects all of our existences are rising sea level, loss of biodiversity, loss of land mass, financial systemic volatility, transport gridlock, spiralling insurance, rampant population movement, global pandemics, lack of carbon sinks, pollution, climatic instability, industrial destruction, military conflict relating to water and land etc etc.
No computer model is able to predict the manner in which these individual realities will interact with one another via feedback loops. Additionally, some of the "solutions" currently being promoted by the globalisation brigade are laughably naive. For example, biodiesel is being pushed to reduce CO2 emissions. The amount of land and water required to achieve this changeover is scientifically invalid ie not enough land and not enough water. Hiding behind fake science is a standard tactic of the PPDs brigade.
Market Analysts, Speculators and Traders who play the global markets are fully aware of the impact of the short-sightedness of the PPDs with regard to climate change. The whole structure of the financial system depends on the concept of Market Efficiency but the mid-long term impact of climate change is not factored into the pricing mechanism. Currently, there is massive global liquidity due to the new slavery of globalisation. This is not sustainable. The markets are effervescent due to India and China (and their 2 billion people) coming online as consumers and producers. This is merely short-termist creative destruction. If China and India do industrialise to the extent that the globalisers desire, we are doomed. The brinkmanship of World Government is clearly demonstrated wherever one chooses to look.
The strategists amongst the elite (sic) are aware of the only option other than global destruction - massive economic slowdown on a scale that will make the 1929 Depression seem like a walk in the park. The prime reason that "defined-contribution" pensions schemes are being foisted on employees to replace the original "defined-benefit" option is that the neocons don't wish to have future financial liabilities and responsibilities. Employees, as ever, will take the full force of the mega-recession. We would strongly advise all and sundry to sell any shares, bonds or other links to a system that is past it's sell-by date. Otherwise, you will find yourselves sympathising with the great Groucho Marx who lost a quarter of a million dollars in one day in 1929 - "I have worked myself up from nothing to a state of extreme poverty". In addition to the evidence of our reality, Market Analysts see structures in the system that are indicative of a fall in the markets. We are literally short-selling the system as traders.
The feedback loops on the ground, so to speak, are nothing compared to the atmospheric feedback loops. Atmospheric science depends heavily on computer modelling as laboratories cannot hope to replicate the complexities of the system. We simply do not know the knock on effects of climate change atmospherically. However, the planet Venus (our nearest neighbour) shows Astronomers what happens when these feedback loops pass the point of no return. A rational and risk-averse planet would proceed with caution while incrementally determining the dangers inherent in the system. Shareholder capitalism insists on putting the financial profit cart before the global environment horse.
One of our Trading Team was invited to Davos due to some consultative work undertaken on behalf of Goldman Sachs. He would probably have been the first Libertarian Socialist to attend such a gathering! Instead, he chose to attend the World Social Forum in Nairobi to address "Africa and her unbroken history of struggle against foreign domination, colonialism and neocolonialism". A far preferable choice, I think you will agree.
Tuesday, 23 January 2007
New Labour's Addiction to Gambling
Next week the government will announce the foregone conclusion of the Millennium Dome being granted Britain's first super casino licence. It was consequently with a certain degree of interest that I watched last night's Dispatches programme on Channel 4 which clearly exhibited the links between organised crime and the British government with regard to the casino industry.
Although, we wouldn't expect anything other than sleight of hand regarding the positioning of Blair, Prescott and Jowell on this matter, we held out rather more hope with Richard Caborn (the Minister for Gambling). He stands up to Scudamore and the Premier League and it is evident that the man is aware of the multi-layered corruption in the industry sector. Following last night's interview with Antony Barnett, however, we are filing Caborn as yet another Labour MP who has sold out on his principles in return for power.
I have never been in a casino and I have never played any of the online casinos either. Winners are absolutely excluded (try card counting at blackjack!) and none of the gambling tables offer a level playing field. Poker games allow criminal collusion between the house and the dealer and, if necessary, players are placed at hot tables. The use of CCTV allows the casinos to closely monitor anybody who is winning. With online casinos, the possibilities for corruption and manipulated tables is obvious. And, looking at the organisations behind these operations, it is blindly apparent that they have no interest in gaming - they focus on profit full stop. Trump, MGM, Ladbrokes, Stanley, Chandler, 888.com... we are not talking ethical companies here.
On a personal level, the Dispatches programme depressed me. I was the first person in Britain to undertake a PhD in Gambling at the Centre for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming (CSGCG) at Salford University (a minor triumph, I admit) and seeing the current head of this operation (Prof Collins) slime his way through his interview was a timely reminder of who funds the CSGCG. The betting and casino industry...
Although, we wouldn't expect anything other than sleight of hand regarding the positioning of Blair, Prescott and Jowell on this matter, we held out rather more hope with Richard Caborn (the Minister for Gambling). He stands up to Scudamore and the Premier League and it is evident that the man is aware of the multi-layered corruption in the industry sector. Following last night's interview with Antony Barnett, however, we are filing Caborn as yet another Labour MP who has sold out on his principles in return for power.
I have never been in a casino and I have never played any of the online casinos either. Winners are absolutely excluded (try card counting at blackjack!) and none of the gambling tables offer a level playing field. Poker games allow criminal collusion between the house and the dealer and, if necessary, players are placed at hot tables. The use of CCTV allows the casinos to closely monitor anybody who is winning. With online casinos, the possibilities for corruption and manipulated tables is obvious. And, looking at the organisations behind these operations, it is blindly apparent that they have no interest in gaming - they focus on profit full stop. Trump, MGM, Ladbrokes, Stanley, Chandler, 888.com... we are not talking ethical companies here.
On a personal level, the Dispatches programme depressed me. I was the first person in Britain to undertake a PhD in Gambling at the Centre for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming (CSGCG) at Salford University (a minor triumph, I admit) and seeing the current head of this operation (Prof Collins) slime his way through his interview was a timely reminder of who funds the CSGCG. The betting and casino industry...
Monday, 22 January 2007
The Bum Ref Index - January Update
Based on The Economist's Big Mac Index which utilises the economic fallacy of purchasing power parity to determine which global currencies are over/under-valued, Football is Fixed introduced the Bum Ref Index in November. This assesses the negative impact that Premiership referees have on the games in which they officiate together with our proprietary individual psychological profiling. And we have a new leader!
Worst 5 Officials:
12. Poll 3.02
13. Walton 3.08
14. Rennie 3.22
15. Mason 3.30
16. Wiley 3.32
Best 5 Officials:
1. Clattenburg 1.99
2. Dowd 2.29
3. Foy 2.31
4. Webb 2.47
5. Atkinson 2.53
Note - Marriner, Tanner and Probert excluded as too few games.
Worst 5 Officials:
12. Poll 3.02
13. Walton 3.08
14. Rennie 3.22
15. Mason 3.30
16. Wiley 3.32
Best 5 Officials:
1. Clattenburg 1.99
2. Dowd 2.29
3. Foy 2.31
4. Webb 2.47
5. Atkinson 2.53
Note - Marriner, Tanner and Probert excluded as too few games.
Weekend Premiership Round-Up
So that was it? The big 4 met, everyone yawned, the powers-that-be have managed to reignite a 4-way Premiership title race (great for betting turnover) and the standard of football was mediocre.
At the ground next to Highbury, there was a third late change of referee for a televised Arsenal game within a month! We have spoken with Arsene Wenger regarding Premiership officialdom and we are aware that he is addressing the issue. But three changes of official in such a short period for one team's live events is unprecedented. Due to the influence of match officials, such alterations lead to major market upheaval when announced and is one of the prime reasons why we trade late on many Premiership events.
Yesterday's post regarding the use of video technology was prompted by Uriah Rennie's overruling of one of his assistants to provide Newcastle with a lifeline against West Ham. Regular readers will understand that we don't have much respect for Curbishley and Day but the Hammers were denied two points by Poll last week and two further points on Saturday - these may well be key in their relegation battle. By a considerable distance, Newcastle are the most favoured team with regard to refereeing decisions in the Premiership this season - Shepherd and the plc would be bogged down in relegation land otherwise.
The sending off of El-Hadji Diouf by the volatile Wiley was a nonsense (although irrelevant in terms of the match). Diouf is treated appallingly by officials and the press in this country and some of the statements and attitudes towards him border on racism. He is a remarkable human being who donates huge amounts of his money to Mouride causes in Senegal - these are the people who die in their boats en masse trying to get into Europe to undertake street hawking in order to survive (one of globalisation's many successes?!). Okay, so the man occasionally spits and he winds up the racists in the crowd. So what - a top man and a top player.
Which is more than can be said for Keith Gillespie - several courgettes short of a ratatouille...
At the ground next to Highbury, there was a third late change of referee for a televised Arsenal game within a month! We have spoken with Arsene Wenger regarding Premiership officialdom and we are aware that he is addressing the issue. But three changes of official in such a short period for one team's live events is unprecedented. Due to the influence of match officials, such alterations lead to major market upheaval when announced and is one of the prime reasons why we trade late on many Premiership events.
Yesterday's post regarding the use of video technology was prompted by Uriah Rennie's overruling of one of his assistants to provide Newcastle with a lifeline against West Ham. Regular readers will understand that we don't have much respect for Curbishley and Day but the Hammers were denied two points by Poll last week and two further points on Saturday - these may well be key in their relegation battle. By a considerable distance, Newcastle are the most favoured team with regard to refereeing decisions in the Premiership this season - Shepherd and the plc would be bogged down in relegation land otherwise.
The sending off of El-Hadji Diouf by the volatile Wiley was a nonsense (although irrelevant in terms of the match). Diouf is treated appallingly by officials and the press in this country and some of the statements and attitudes towards him border on racism. He is a remarkable human being who donates huge amounts of his money to Mouride causes in Senegal - these are the people who die in their boats en masse trying to get into Europe to undertake street hawking in order to survive (one of globalisation's many successes?!). Okay, so the man occasionally spits and he winds up the racists in the crowd. So what - a top man and a top player.
Which is more than can be said for Keith Gillespie - several courgettes short of a ratatouille...
Sunday, 21 January 2007
More Technology and More Officials Please
The use of technology to prevent erroneous decisions by the match officials in the Premiership needs to be urgently addressed by the authorities. Other sports have successfully incorporated the use of video replays without any loss of excitement in the game but football refuses to embrace technology. This extends to FIFA and UEFA too.
The referees and their assistants have too much control and influence in games. Poor decisions not only affect outcomes, titles, promotion and relegation issues but also the careers of the participants. Equally disturbingly, when over £200m is being bet globally on the big matches, the officials take on a key and central role with regard to the markets.
I'll reluctantly accept that penalties, free kicks and sendings off will remain the province of the referees. But at least there is a degree of accountability with these decisions that enable one to determine the official's attitudes.
With respect to goal-line and offside, video technology must be used immediately. It's quick, accurate and honest and prevents any deliberate manipulation by the match officials. The 4th official has tv evidence available at the pitchside - it's a no-brainer.
However, the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) together with the Premier League are insistent on giving the referees a greater degree of unilateral control on the pitch. Numerous micro-adjustments to enhance the power of officials have been created. Some examples are the determination of the amount of injury time; allowing key free kicks to be taken without a whistle (or not); prevention of stoppages for injuries where, historically, players would put the ball out of play; the selective usage of the advantage rule; the use of microphone technology to maintain omnipotent control of all aspects of the game. Other external randomising factors are also commonplace eg watering of the pitch and the use of different balls for both FA Cup and League Cup matches.
To prevent the development of infrastructures which allow corruption in the game, the control should be spread as widely as possible. How about two referees on the pitch; a 5th official with video technology; a far greater number of match officials on the roster; the avoidance of referees repeatedly teaming up with the same assistant referees; more women officials; using referees from other territories (already utilised in countries where corruption is acknowledged).
Our Trading Team thoroughly analyse and psychologically profile all match officials in all leagues. We make money from our observations of the corruption in football but we would prefer to make money from an honest and competitive sport.
The referees and their assistants have too much control and influence in games. Poor decisions not only affect outcomes, titles, promotion and relegation issues but also the careers of the participants. Equally disturbingly, when over £200m is being bet globally on the big matches, the officials take on a key and central role with regard to the markets.
I'll reluctantly accept that penalties, free kicks and sendings off will remain the province of the referees. But at least there is a degree of accountability with these decisions that enable one to determine the official's attitudes.
With respect to goal-line and offside, video technology must be used immediately. It's quick, accurate and honest and prevents any deliberate manipulation by the match officials. The 4th official has tv evidence available at the pitchside - it's a no-brainer.
However, the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) together with the Premier League are insistent on giving the referees a greater degree of unilateral control on the pitch. Numerous micro-adjustments to enhance the power of officials have been created. Some examples are the determination of the amount of injury time; allowing key free kicks to be taken without a whistle (or not); prevention of stoppages for injuries where, historically, players would put the ball out of play; the selective usage of the advantage rule; the use of microphone technology to maintain omnipotent control of all aspects of the game. Other external randomising factors are also commonplace eg watering of the pitch and the use of different balls for both FA Cup and League Cup matches.
To prevent the development of infrastructures which allow corruption in the game, the control should be spread as widely as possible. How about two referees on the pitch; a 5th official with video technology; a far greater number of match officials on the roster; the avoidance of referees repeatedly teaming up with the same assistant referees; more women officials; using referees from other territories (already utilised in countries where corruption is acknowledged).
Our Trading Team thoroughly analyse and psychologically profile all match officials in all leagues. We make money from our observations of the corruption in football but we would prefer to make money from an honest and competitive sport.
Saturday, 20 January 2007
Who is the Chelsea Mole? Where is Spurs money?
There are rampant rumours around that there is a mole in the Chelsea hierarchy who is undermining Mourinho and Abramovitch's outfit.
Traders often establish private markets among themselves and the current Asian book on the mole is provided below:
Lampard 2/1
Cole A. 3/1
Ballack 10/3
Shevchenko 6/1
Kenyon 6/1
12/1 Bar
No mole = no market.
We are not willing to say where we've put our money!
In addition on the Premiership, British fixed odds bookies are claiming that there is the biggest gamble of the season to date on Tottenham today at Fulham. Really?
On Wednesday, Tottenham play Arsenal in the League Cup Semi Final 1st Leg and we believe that Spurs' strategic focus will be on that game. If the layers are going to put out disinformation then, at least, they should show a little creativity. Dean officiates but we are neutral on this event.
Traders often establish private markets among themselves and the current Asian book on the mole is provided below:
Lampard 2/1
Cole A. 3/1
Ballack 10/3
Shevchenko 6/1
Kenyon 6/1
12/1 Bar
No mole = no market.
We are not willing to say where we've put our money!
In addition on the Premiership, British fixed odds bookies are claiming that there is the biggest gamble of the season to date on Tottenham today at Fulham. Really?
On Wednesday, Tottenham play Arsenal in the League Cup Semi Final 1st Leg and we believe that Spurs' strategic focus will be on that game. If the layers are going to put out disinformation then, at least, they should show a little creativity. Dean officiates but we are neutral on this event.
Friday, 19 January 2007
Blair = Berlusconi
Vastly overrated film producer Lord Puttnam's apoplexy at the police over the manner of the arrest of Blair aide Ruth Turner in the cash-for-honours scandal would carry a little more credence if he had also spoken out after police officers had put seven bullets in the head of Jean Charles de Menezes.
The de Menezes family have still been denied the right of a full appeal and the Metropolitan Police commissioner is only to be prosecuted under Health and Safety laws for the manslaughter of an entirely innocent individual.
Health and Safety??? This is an Orwellian piece of doublespeak.
This government is proof that absolute power corrupts absolutely. Enough of this truncated democracy and let's start dealing with real justice here.
Blair is fortunate that he is only fending off police questions over his murky government practices in the House of Lords as opposed to standing trial in Den Haag for crimes against humanity.
How did the party of Aneurin Bevan end up with this duplicitous fascist*?
*The essential elements of fascism are militarism (Iraq/ Afghanistan), imperialism (globalisation) and racism (attitude to Blacks and Muslims).
The de Menezes family have still been denied the right of a full appeal and the Metropolitan Police commissioner is only to be prosecuted under Health and Safety laws for the manslaughter of an entirely innocent individual.
Health and Safety??? This is an Orwellian piece of doublespeak.
This government is proof that absolute power corrupts absolutely. Enough of this truncated democracy and let's start dealing with real justice here.
Blair is fortunate that he is only fending off police questions over his murky government practices in the House of Lords as opposed to standing trial in Den Haag for crimes against humanity.
How did the party of Aneurin Bevan end up with this duplicitous fascist*?
*The essential elements of fascism are militarism (Iraq/ Afghanistan), imperialism (globalisation) and racism (attitude to Blacks and Muslims).
Sweeping Corruption under the Carpet
Keith Hackett - the head of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) - is meeting with BBC radio and tv journalists next week to counter criticism of Premiership referees in the BBC's output.
We won't reiterate in this post the reasons that our Trading Team believe that there is high level manipulation and corruption in the Premiership but we list at the bottom of this article previous posts that have focussed on this core issue.
Corruption today requires media and refereeing complicity and the differences between Sky and the BBC are evident.
The BBC has already been put on the defensive by the refusal of several leading managers to be interviewed on Match of the Day (Ferguson, Redknapp, Allardyce) and by pressure being placed on the editors to avoid screening controversial refereeing incidents and/or offer no comment on such incidents.
In comparison, Sky works very closely with some referees and has a hidden agenda that is psychopathic in it's control mechanisms. We could detail numerous supportive data but our legal people are saying "no". Controversial incidents are frequently airbrushed out of existence.
We'll give you one minor example that is suggestive of the culture however. Prior to Sky's midweek FA Cup offering, Andy Gray's accomplice (we'll refer to him as Dracula as I can't remember the geyser's name) waxed lyrical as the camera lingered on Mike Dean. Dracula suggested that "poor Mike Dean should be the referee at this year's FA Cup Final as he was due to officiate at last year's game but was demoted as he is from the Wirral and Liverpool were in the Final". This is the same Mike Dean that, 12 months earlier, had been banned from officiating for 2.5 months due to his role in Arbitros Racing - an online horseracing syndicate! A minor point but a revealing one. Along with the Racing Post, Sky is the most manipulative media with regards to football - we wouldn't trust anything that comes from Gray, Keys, Reid, Redknapp junior, Merson, McInally, Dracula, Curbishley, Redknapp senior etc etc.
There is fraud and corruption in the betting markets on a massive scale - upwards of £200m will be traded globally on each of the two big Premiership games this weekend. The criminals want absolute control and referees are the manipulators of choice for these criminals.
We suggest that Hackett takes a reality check.
PREVIOUS POSTS ON CORRUPTION IN THE PREMIERSHIP
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/comparative-corruption-in-major.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/wheres-your-broker-referee.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/las-vegasisation-of-football.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/manipulated-markets.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/structure-to-avoid-corruption-part-1.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/quis-custodient-ipsos-custodes.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/financial-liquidity-v-psychopathic.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/conspicuous-money-influencing-outcome.html
We won't reiterate in this post the reasons that our Trading Team believe that there is high level manipulation and corruption in the Premiership but we list at the bottom of this article previous posts that have focussed on this core issue.
Corruption today requires media and refereeing complicity and the differences between Sky and the BBC are evident.
The BBC has already been put on the defensive by the refusal of several leading managers to be interviewed on Match of the Day (Ferguson, Redknapp, Allardyce) and by pressure being placed on the editors to avoid screening controversial refereeing incidents and/or offer no comment on such incidents.
In comparison, Sky works very closely with some referees and has a hidden agenda that is psychopathic in it's control mechanisms. We could detail numerous supportive data but our legal people are saying "no". Controversial incidents are frequently airbrushed out of existence.
We'll give you one minor example that is suggestive of the culture however. Prior to Sky's midweek FA Cup offering, Andy Gray's accomplice (we'll refer to him as Dracula as I can't remember the geyser's name) waxed lyrical as the camera lingered on Mike Dean. Dracula suggested that "poor Mike Dean should be the referee at this year's FA Cup Final as he was due to officiate at last year's game but was demoted as he is from the Wirral and Liverpool were in the Final". This is the same Mike Dean that, 12 months earlier, had been banned from officiating for 2.5 months due to his role in Arbitros Racing - an online horseracing syndicate! A minor point but a revealing one. Along with the Racing Post, Sky is the most manipulative media with regards to football - we wouldn't trust anything that comes from Gray, Keys, Reid, Redknapp junior, Merson, McInally, Dracula, Curbishley, Redknapp senior etc etc.
There is fraud and corruption in the betting markets on a massive scale - upwards of £200m will be traded globally on each of the two big Premiership games this weekend. The criminals want absolute control and referees are the manipulators of choice for these criminals.
We suggest that Hackett takes a reality check.
PREVIOUS POSTS ON CORRUPTION IN THE PREMIERSHIP
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/comparative-corruption-in-major.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/wheres-your-broker-referee.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/las-vegasisation-of-football.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/manipulated-markets.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/structure-to-avoid-corruption-part-1.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/quis-custodient-ipsos-custodes.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/financial-liquidity-v-psychopathic.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/conspicuous-money-influencing-outcome.html
Thursday, 18 January 2007
Non-Gooner London Bias
Despite the authorities branding the FA Cup as a major competition, it isn't. The competition is a distraction from where the real money lies and is equivalent in stature to the domestic cups in other European territories (Coppa Italia, Copa Del Rey and DFB-Pokal). The team selections of the top teams are indicative of this status.
We choose not to trade on the early rounds of the FA Cup in line with the majority of the biggest operators in Asia. After the 3rd Round games and the 4th Round draw, we do have some opinions on which teams are being favoured by the footballing establishment - we were on West Ham big-style last year as we detected Brooking's input ahead of the market. Indeed, our position culminated in a trading strategy for the final where we sold Liverpool supremacy over 90 minutes but we backed the scousers to win outright (which was a pretty cool trade really!).
It is worth noting that two of the next three rounds of the FA Cup are adjacent to Champions League 1/8 Finals matches. We believe that there is value in supporting Chelsea, West Ham, Tottenham, Fulham and Manchester City on the indices this season. There are rumours of supportive machinations behind Portsmouth but being drawn at Old Trafford means we will sit on the fence on this one for now.
But, to be honest, who cares?
We choose not to trade on the early rounds of the FA Cup in line with the majority of the biggest operators in Asia. After the 3rd Round games and the 4th Round draw, we do have some opinions on which teams are being favoured by the footballing establishment - we were on West Ham big-style last year as we detected Brooking's input ahead of the market. Indeed, our position culminated in a trading strategy for the final where we sold Liverpool supremacy over 90 minutes but we backed the scousers to win outright (which was a pretty cool trade really!).
It is worth noting that two of the next three rounds of the FA Cup are adjacent to Champions League 1/8 Finals matches. We believe that there is value in supporting Chelsea, West Ham, Tottenham, Fulham and Manchester City on the indices this season. There are rumours of supportive machinations behind Portsmouth but being drawn at Old Trafford means we will sit on the fence on this one for now.
But, to be honest, who cares?
The Era of Cynical Realism
One of the most entertaining aspects of the wired world is the spread of global consciousness between cultures and disciplines.
The manner in which Postmodernism dominated the late 20th century is being advanced by Cynical Realism in the early 21st.
From the art of Liu Xiaodong in China to much current Political Philosophy in Europe, Cynical Realism is a definition for our age.
The viral cross-disciplinary nature of this movement of ideas leads us to observe that Cynical Realism also defines the trading philosophies of leading traders both in Asia and Europe. It certainly is a foundation of our operation.
Cynical Realism has evolved from Huxley's observation that "it’s the intelligent man’s best excuse for doing nothing in an intolerable situation" to becoming an individual's reason for doing something in an intolerable situation.
The manner in which Postmodernism dominated the late 20th century is being advanced by Cynical Realism in the early 21st.
From the art of Liu Xiaodong in China to much current Political Philosophy in Europe, Cynical Realism is a definition for our age.
The viral cross-disciplinary nature of this movement of ideas leads us to observe that Cynical Realism also defines the trading philosophies of leading traders both in Asia and Europe. It certainly is a foundation of our operation.
Cynical Realism has evolved from Huxley's observation that "it’s the intelligent man’s best excuse for doing nothing in an intolerable situation" to becoming an individual's reason for doing something in an intolerable situation.
The New Tidings Out Of Italie Are Not Yet Come
In all territories, there are strong linkages between certain teams and these links are liable to have a significant effect on the real market price when the teams meet.
For the purposes of this post, we will focus on Serie A. In Italy, the larger teams have a network of links to lower strata clubs. Such links create a win-win situation for the clubs involved.
Players are loaned and transferred between the clubs with favourable financial arrangements and hidden agendas. Milan and Inter are currently under investigation by COVISOC (the financial overseer of the FIGC) regarding eight transfers between the teams in 2002/03. None of the players ever turned out for their new outfit and accounting irregularities have forced Galliani and Moratti into the dock. Where is Berlusconi when you need him? This investigation is unusual in that i) it is taking place at all and ii) it is backdated by several seasons (something Lord Stevens and Quest and the Premier League patently failed to do in the bungs whitewash in England).
Aside from the movement of labour and creative accounting, linked clubs are also able to be of mutual assistance within the season. Two examples involving Juve as they are currently in Serie B. When Giovanni Agnelli (Mr Fiat and Mr Juventus) died in 2003, the Old Lady's next game was against one of their linked teams, Piacenza. This was not a competitive match. Neither was the Siena game at the end of last season where 3 goals in the first 6 minutes sorted the outcome. A rarer occurrence bestows victory on the lesser of the linked teams when motivational dichotomies allow.
Additionally, linked clubs in Italy often play out agreed draws if such an outcome is beneficial to both outfits - the shorter fixed odds prices on a drawn outcome in Serie A and B are indicative of this structure (Ladbrokes are longer than 2/1 about only one Serie A match this weekend).
Finally, there are the mafia and political links between teams. Napoli, Palermo and Reggio Di Calabria (Reggina) have opaque arrangements for their encounters. Reggina and Palermo meet this weekend in the Saturday night live game.
Livorno and Roma also meet this weekend and both clubs share political affiliations (although Livorno are significantly more revolutionary!). This event is further complicated by internal disputes at Livorno following the sacking of their manager after the Atalanta debacle.
Utilising creative analysis, lateral thinking and dietrologia is the route to profit when trading Serie A.
For the purposes of this post, we will focus on Serie A. In Italy, the larger teams have a network of links to lower strata clubs. Such links create a win-win situation for the clubs involved.
Players are loaned and transferred between the clubs with favourable financial arrangements and hidden agendas. Milan and Inter are currently under investigation by COVISOC (the financial overseer of the FIGC) regarding eight transfers between the teams in 2002/03. None of the players ever turned out for their new outfit and accounting irregularities have forced Galliani and Moratti into the dock. Where is Berlusconi when you need him? This investigation is unusual in that i) it is taking place at all and ii) it is backdated by several seasons (something Lord Stevens and Quest and the Premier League patently failed to do in the bungs whitewash in England).
Aside from the movement of labour and creative accounting, linked clubs are also able to be of mutual assistance within the season. Two examples involving Juve as they are currently in Serie B. When Giovanni Agnelli (Mr Fiat and Mr Juventus) died in 2003, the Old Lady's next game was against one of their linked teams, Piacenza. This was not a competitive match. Neither was the Siena game at the end of last season where 3 goals in the first 6 minutes sorted the outcome. A rarer occurrence bestows victory on the lesser of the linked teams when motivational dichotomies allow.
Additionally, linked clubs in Italy often play out agreed draws if such an outcome is beneficial to both outfits - the shorter fixed odds prices on a drawn outcome in Serie A and B are indicative of this structure (Ladbrokes are longer than 2/1 about only one Serie A match this weekend).
Finally, there are the mafia and political links between teams. Napoli, Palermo and Reggio Di Calabria (Reggina) have opaque arrangements for their encounters. Reggina and Palermo meet this weekend in the Saturday night live game.
Livorno and Roma also meet this weekend and both clubs share political affiliations (although Livorno are significantly more revolutionary!). This event is further complicated by internal disputes at Livorno following the sacking of their manager after the Atalanta debacle.
Utilising creative analysis, lateral thinking and dietrologia is the route to profit when trading Serie A.
Wednesday, 17 January 2007
Bysshe Versus Bushy
It's nearly time for the annual jamboree for World Government and Globalised Capitalism at Davos where they celebrate their liquidity, snort copious amounts of high-grade Colombian cocaine and plan their shared strategies and agendas for the next year. Fortunately for the rest of the planet, there will be a few individuals present that don't exhibit the short-termism associated with psychopathic personality disorder (PPDs) - for explanation see post at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/psychopathic-personality-disorder.html. We can only hope that Hank Paulson, George Soros, Bill Gates, Lula, Warren Buffett, Joseph Stiglitz et al counterbalance the rest.
Nearly 200 years ago Percy Bysshe Shelley penned "The Call To Freedom" to highlight the abuses of capitalism in the workhouses of Lancashire, the prison ships sailing to Botany Bay and the plantations of the West Indies. His words seem surprisingly relevant for our current globalised system which offers us Vietnamese workhouses and Private Equity Firms.
From the workhouse and the prison
Where pale as corpses newly risen,
Women, children, young and old
Groan for pain, and weep for cold -
From the haunts of daily life
Where is waged the daily strife
With common wants and common cares
Which sows the human heart with tares -
Lastly from the palaces
Where the murmur of distress
Echoes, like the distant sound
Of a wind alive around
Those prison halls of wealth and fashion
Where some few feel such compassion
For those who groan, and toil, and wail
As must make their brethren pale -
Ye who suffer woes untold,
Or to feel, or to be behold
Your lost country bought and sold
With a price of blood and gold -
Let a vast assembly be,
And with great solemnity
Declare with measured words that ye
Are, as God has made ye, free -
And these words shall then become
Like Oppression's thunder doom
Ringing through each heart and brain,
Heard again - again - again
Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number -
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you -
Ye are many - they are few.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Nearly 200 years ago Percy Bysshe Shelley penned "The Call To Freedom" to highlight the abuses of capitalism in the workhouses of Lancashire, the prison ships sailing to Botany Bay and the plantations of the West Indies. His words seem surprisingly relevant for our current globalised system which offers us Vietnamese workhouses and Private Equity Firms.
From the workhouse and the prison
Where pale as corpses newly risen,
Women, children, young and old
Groan for pain, and weep for cold -
From the haunts of daily life
Where is waged the daily strife
With common wants and common cares
Which sows the human heart with tares -
Lastly from the palaces
Where the murmur of distress
Echoes, like the distant sound
Of a wind alive around
Those prison halls of wealth and fashion
Where some few feel such compassion
For those who groan, and toil, and wail
As must make their brethren pale -
Ye who suffer woes untold,
Or to feel, or to be behold
Your lost country bought and sold
With a price of blood and gold -
Let a vast assembly be,
And with great solemnity
Declare with measured words that ye
Are, as God has made ye, free -
And these words shall then become
Like Oppression's thunder doom
Ringing through each heart and brain,
Heard again - again - again
Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number -
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you -
Ye are many - they are few.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Trading on a Sea of Consciousness
In a previous life, I enjoyed a relationship with leading Polish neurologist Dr Kasia Sieradzan and she ignited my interest in the intellectual combination of neurology and economics.
So, when I was putting together a creative grouping of individuals to trade the markets, some neuro input was a must.
My initial work involved the training up of neural networks (NNs) to serve as part of our portfolio of trading instruments. We now use NNs for 15% of our trading activities alongside our unified trading model (UTM).
Such algorithmic black-box technology is all well and good but I was more interested in the science underpinning behavioural economics.
As we have previously stated, neoclassical economics assumes rationality in our decision making. Behavioural economics is not having any of this and we're with the behaviouralists.
A couple of members of our Trading Team are currently involved in some experiments with researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to look at brain activity when trading decisions are being made. Utilising function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), the early results are very interesting and are of benefit both scientifically and as an input to our holistic view of the trading process.
By targeting particular key decision-making breakpoints, we have been able to show that different parts of the brain are involved at different parts of the decision-making process. We are particularly interested in the grey area covering intuition and analysis.
Previous work by our co-researchers has shown how shareholder capitalism uses old neural circuits evolved for gratification and avoiding danger to engender addictive consumerist behaviour. For example, as the brain analyses the product and the price separately, people are more willing to purchase an item on credit as the pain is deferred.
Effectively experimenting on ourselves is a very positive addition to our trading profile. Edge...
So, when I was putting together a creative grouping of individuals to trade the markets, some neuro input was a must.
My initial work involved the training up of neural networks (NNs) to serve as part of our portfolio of trading instruments. We now use NNs for 15% of our trading activities alongside our unified trading model (UTM).
Such algorithmic black-box technology is all well and good but I was more interested in the science underpinning behavioural economics.
As we have previously stated, neoclassical economics assumes rationality in our decision making. Behavioural economics is not having any of this and we're with the behaviouralists.
A couple of members of our Trading Team are currently involved in some experiments with researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to look at brain activity when trading decisions are being made. Utilising function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), the early results are very interesting and are of benefit both scientifically and as an input to our holistic view of the trading process.
By targeting particular key decision-making breakpoints, we have been able to show that different parts of the brain are involved at different parts of the decision-making process. We are particularly interested in the grey area covering intuition and analysis.
Previous work by our co-researchers has shown how shareholder capitalism uses old neural circuits evolved for gratification and avoiding danger to engender addictive consumerist behaviour. For example, as the brain analyses the product and the price separately, people are more willing to purchase an item on credit as the pain is deferred.
Effectively experimenting on ourselves is a very positive addition to our trading profile. Edge...
An Almost Endless List That Won't Be Missed
A news item that includes Quest and Lord Stevens, Scudamore and The Premier League, Harry Redknapp, Pini Zahavi, Roman Abramovitch, Arcadi and Alexandre Gaydamak, Steve MacLaren, Abraham Grant, Graeme Souness, Rio Ferdinand, MSI and Kia Joorabchian must be indicative of the state of the game. We would suggest counting your fingers after shaking hands with any of these characters.
Personally, I don't find the institutional or individual corruption and criminality the worst aspect of this. It is the way that Yakubu has been traded around like a piece of meat so that lots of talentless psychopathic moneyheads can take their slice of the action (repeatedly). I'm not denying that Yakubu is financially secure for life but there is little doubt as to his position in this vertically integrated operation.
Additionally, following the datelines of the various machinations involving Yakubu Aiyegbeni is also revealing with regard to Harry Redknapp's flip-flopping between Pompey and Southampton.
"News is what someone wants to suppress. Everything else is advertising" - Reuben Frank.
Personally, I don't find the institutional or individual corruption and criminality the worst aspect of this. It is the way that Yakubu has been traded around like a piece of meat so that lots of talentless psychopathic moneyheads can take their slice of the action (repeatedly). I'm not denying that Yakubu is financially secure for life but there is little doubt as to his position in this vertically integrated operation.
Additionally, following the datelines of the various machinations involving Yakubu Aiyegbeni is also revealing with regard to Harry Redknapp's flip-flopping between Pompey and Southampton.
"News is what someone wants to suppress. Everything else is advertising" - Reuben Frank.
Tuesday, 16 January 2007
Quis Custodient Ipsos Custodes?
Don't blame the player, blame the game.
Don't blame the game, blame the authorities.
Although many of our posts focus on the visible manipulation - on the pitch and in the betting markets - it is the invisible corruption that is the most insidious.
If the people towards the top of the pyramid are blind or acquiescent then it is little wonder that there are individuals lower down the hierarchy who are willing to take the dollar on offer.
None of the footballing bodies that we should be able to rely upon are interested in custodianship of the beautiful game. Their interests stretch only to maintaining and enhancing their own power and lining their own pockets.
The Premier League and the FA, UEFA and FIFA, the G14(18) and the European Professional Football Strategy Forum all merely compete over controlling the game at their respective strata.
And don't expect any policing of the corruption by government. By focusing on peripherally relevant issues like protection of the young and vulnerable, Tessa Jowell MP and her chums on the Gambling Commission ignore the key problem - criminality. The Gambling Commission was established both to ensure that gambling is conducted fairly and openly and to keep crime out of gambling. It has failed. Sport in England is rotten to the core. We are dealing with a systemic culture here...
Yesterday, three people appeared at Southwark Crown Court and were sentenced for illegally using technology to beat the casinos. We would have thought that the police time could have been better utilised to confront the institutional corruption endemic in our national sports of football and horseracing. Don't you just love spectacular society?
Who guards the guardians?
Don't blame the game, blame the authorities.
Although many of our posts focus on the visible manipulation - on the pitch and in the betting markets - it is the invisible corruption that is the most insidious.
If the people towards the top of the pyramid are blind or acquiescent then it is little wonder that there are individuals lower down the hierarchy who are willing to take the dollar on offer.
None of the footballing bodies that we should be able to rely upon are interested in custodianship of the beautiful game. Their interests stretch only to maintaining and enhancing their own power and lining their own pockets.
The Premier League and the FA, UEFA and FIFA, the G14(18) and the European Professional Football Strategy Forum all merely compete over controlling the game at their respective strata.
And don't expect any policing of the corruption by government. By focusing on peripherally relevant issues like protection of the young and vulnerable, Tessa Jowell MP and her chums on the Gambling Commission ignore the key problem - criminality. The Gambling Commission was established both to ensure that gambling is conducted fairly and openly and to keep crime out of gambling. It has failed. Sport in England is rotten to the core. We are dealing with a systemic culture here...
Yesterday, three people appeared at Southwark Crown Court and were sentenced for illegally using technology to beat the casinos. We would have thought that the police time could have been better utilised to confront the institutional corruption endemic in our national sports of football and horseracing. Don't you just love spectacular society?
Who guards the guardians?
Bettor Beware
There are strong rumours here in Hong Kong that Pointbet (one of the biggest Asian firms) have gone underground. Websites have disappeared and there are complaints from clients about non-payment of winnings.
Pointbet were unusual in that they offered a legal entity for traders - the vast majority of Asian operators work on the move as they dodge the authorities that trail them throughout the Far East. One such firm was 3starbet.com that repeatedly reinvented themselves as bet3star.com and starbet3.com etc etc!
A key aspect to be addressed when opening an account with a broker/ market-maker is the payment issue. As gambling winnings are unenforceable under law, one needs to assess companies on the available information. Have they a physical address? Are there any web postings concerning poor payment practices? What does psychological profiling of the key individuals reveal? In which territory is the businesses head office?
One can never be totally assured of payment however. The strategy of our Trading Team is to never allow any operator to owe us much money. We constantly hassle and make an annoyance of ourselves. We exhibit loyalty to all our business links but we build in to our financial projections a proviso that the final payment will not be made.
This isn't just a problem in Asia and in the offshore environments. One of my personal brokers historically was Tony Bloom (the founder of Premierbet). He always claimed to be happy with winning accounts but once I was trading at levels above £20K per weekend, payment ceased. He still owes me several thousand quid.
It's almost worth learning poker (Bloom plays professionally) to take my money back off the guttersnipe. Almost...
Pointbet were unusual in that they offered a legal entity for traders - the vast majority of Asian operators work on the move as they dodge the authorities that trail them throughout the Far East. One such firm was 3starbet.com that repeatedly reinvented themselves as bet3star.com and starbet3.com etc etc!
A key aspect to be addressed when opening an account with a broker/ market-maker is the payment issue. As gambling winnings are unenforceable under law, one needs to assess companies on the available information. Have they a physical address? Are there any web postings concerning poor payment practices? What does psychological profiling of the key individuals reveal? In which territory is the businesses head office?
One can never be totally assured of payment however. The strategy of our Trading Team is to never allow any operator to owe us much money. We constantly hassle and make an annoyance of ourselves. We exhibit loyalty to all our business links but we build in to our financial projections a proviso that the final payment will not be made.
This isn't just a problem in Asia and in the offshore environments. One of my personal brokers historically was Tony Bloom (the founder of Premierbet). He always claimed to be happy with winning accounts but once I was trading at levels above £20K per weekend, payment ceased. He still owes me several thousand quid.
It's almost worth learning poker (Bloom plays professionally) to take my money back off the guttersnipe. Almost...
Monday, 15 January 2007
P2P PremPlus
P2P TV streaming is the equivalent of the original Napster. It offers illegal access to programming that would usually require subscription/ pay per view.
Online operators such as pplive, ppstream, tvkoo, qqlive, feidian and sopcast are generally based in Asia and frequently change their names and websites to avoid detection (similar to the Asian market-makers).
We wouldn't use such services ourselves as we have concerns about security issues but, if you want to wind up Murdoch, try it out for Premiership football matches. For legal reasons, we would suggest that you use anonymouse.org (or similar) to avoid detection.
Sky only have themselves to blame. Monopolistic overcharging for moderate content will always lead to grey market operators by-passing the system.
Online operators such as pplive, ppstream, tvkoo, qqlive, feidian and sopcast are generally based in Asia and frequently change their names and websites to avoid detection (similar to the Asian market-makers).
We wouldn't use such services ourselves as we have concerns about security issues but, if you want to wind up Murdoch, try it out for Premiership football matches. For legal reasons, we would suggest that you use anonymouse.org (or similar) to avoid detection.
Sky only have themselves to blame. Monopolistic overcharging for moderate content will always lead to grey market operators by-passing the system.
Financial Liquidity v Psychopathic Control
Having spent today in a meeting with a leading Asian market-maker, I am always astonished by the degree of liquidity in the Asian football markets. Bets of £1m are commonplace on the Premiership/ Serie A and there is a proactive trading mentality here that puts the European layers to shame.
In the mid-nineties, the Asians dominated global football markets through prime proprietary analysis and market-making, extensive control networks and by offering the most liquid markets. In Hong Kong, Macau, China, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, the market expertise that one came across were unparalleled in the west.
Initially, the reaction of the European bookmakers was largely defensive but, in recent times, they have taken to exercise some level of control through their non-competitive business strategies. Financial liquidity versus psychopathic control is always an entertaining market structure.
The top Asian traders and market-makers are hugely creative in all aspects of their trading operations - the real time dynamic assessment of their market strategies is one of the most pleasurable (and challenging) areas of being a football market analyst.
The Asians are nimble. They constantly experiment. It's akin to chess. Strategic and tactical doctrines are based upon deception to confuse competitors. Utilising indirect approaches and a flexible coordination addresses any areas of weakness in their business operation.
The Europeans are sluggish in comparison. They only experiment with monopolistic control. Power always prevails in their game plans.
A suitable portfolio of brokers and market-makers for any serious trader must include the Asian operators alongside the Betting Exchanges (BXs) and, perhaps, a couple of Spread Betting accounts.
In the mid-nineties, the Asians dominated global football markets through prime proprietary analysis and market-making, extensive control networks and by offering the most liquid markets. In Hong Kong, Macau, China, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, the market expertise that one came across were unparalleled in the west.
Initially, the reaction of the European bookmakers was largely defensive but, in recent times, they have taken to exercise some level of control through their non-competitive business strategies. Financial liquidity versus psychopathic control is always an entertaining market structure.
The top Asian traders and market-makers are hugely creative in all aspects of their trading operations - the real time dynamic assessment of their market strategies is one of the most pleasurable (and challenging) areas of being a football market analyst.
The Asians are nimble. They constantly experiment. It's akin to chess. Strategic and tactical doctrines are based upon deception to confuse competitors. Utilising indirect approaches and a flexible coordination addresses any areas of weakness in their business operation.
The Europeans are sluggish in comparison. They only experiment with monopolistic control. Power always prevails in their game plans.
A suitable portfolio of brokers and market-makers for any serious trader must include the Asian operators alongside the Betting Exchanges (BXs) and, perhaps, a couple of Spread Betting accounts.
Sunday, 14 January 2007
10 Steps to a Level Trading Field
1. With Betting Exchanges (BXs) you can back or lay a team.
2. Price and value are significantly bigger when betting with the BXs. The margins are minimal.
3. BXs provide full information on their betting markets.
4. Throughout their existence, the BXs have stood up to the monopolistic abuses of the Big 3.
5. All markets may be traded online which increases trading efficiency.
6. BXs allow winning accounts and guarantee payment of winnings unlike the vast majority of traditional bookies.
7. Many more games are offered in-running.
8. The markets are open for longer windows prior to events.
9. Markets remain open until the final whistle.
and 10. If you are crazy enough to play online casinos, BXs like Betfair offer zero house edge and straight tables unlike their competitors.
The only 'service' that the Big 3 offer which isn't replicated by the BXs is the betting shop. These are disinformational environments that support Dostoyevsky's perception that "the poor and unfortunate should avoid one another".
Mash the monopolists and switch today.
2. Price and value are significantly bigger when betting with the BXs. The margins are minimal.
3. BXs provide full information on their betting markets.
4. Throughout their existence, the BXs have stood up to the monopolistic abuses of the Big 3.
5. All markets may be traded online which increases trading efficiency.
6. BXs allow winning accounts and guarantee payment of winnings unlike the vast majority of traditional bookies.
7. Many more games are offered in-running.
8. The markets are open for longer windows prior to events.
9. Markets remain open until the final whistle.
and 10. If you are crazy enough to play online casinos, BXs like Betfair offer zero house edge and straight tables unlike their competitors.
The only 'service' that the Big 3 offer which isn't replicated by the BXs is the betting shop. These are disinformational environments that support Dostoyevsky's perception that "the poor and unfortunate should avoid one another".
Mash the monopolists and switch today.
Mourinho to Employ a Psychic?
In the 1960's, the staffing at most football clubs were limited in their scope - manager, coach and physiotherapist were a standard. Today, clubs from Milan to Bolton have extensive staff hierarchies including sports psychologists, dieticians, sports scientists and medical staff with expertise in Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs) in addition to the agents of capitalism who are required to spectacularise the game (marketing, merchandise, press and publicity, club tv, sponsors, hospitality, bookmakers, newsletters, fanzones etc).
A most unfortunate sign of the times is that all major clubs throughout Europe now require market analysts - even though most of them are not yet aware of this fact. The degree of manipulation is on the rise and the complexities of the market solutions are opaque to all but a few operators. Clubs merely have two options. They may either ignore the corruption endemic in the game and take their chance against the manipulated markets or they can play the system and significantly enhance their options. If a club chooses to take the latter route, they are still able to confront the corruption on a moral level by standing up to it in public.
Our organisation is very particular about the Consultancy Projects that we undertake. We are currently in negotiation with one Premiership club regarding the provision of exclusive proprietary market analysis and this club is one of only two in England that we would consider working alongside.
As European football develops parallel strategies with other market sectors, niche consultancies will become the norm. The successful teams will be the ones who proactively manage the sectoral changes in real time.
A most unfortunate sign of the times is that all major clubs throughout Europe now require market analysts - even though most of them are not yet aware of this fact. The degree of manipulation is on the rise and the complexities of the market solutions are opaque to all but a few operators. Clubs merely have two options. They may either ignore the corruption endemic in the game and take their chance against the manipulated markets or they can play the system and significantly enhance their options. If a club chooses to take the latter route, they are still able to confront the corruption on a moral level by standing up to it in public.
Our organisation is very particular about the Consultancy Projects that we undertake. We are currently in negotiation with one Premiership club regarding the provision of exclusive proprietary market analysis and this club is one of only two in England that we would consider working alongside.
As European football develops parallel strategies with other market sectors, niche consultancies will become the norm. The successful teams will be the ones who proactively manage the sectoral changes in real time.
Fragmented Cartelisation Influencing Outcome
For the second time in a couple of weeks, there was a late change of referee for a televised Arsenal game. High profile Rob Styles came in for lower tier Foy and harshly sent off Gilberto Silva after 13 minutes and acted leniently towards a series of robust challenges from the likes of Savage, Tugay and Neill. There was a complex global betting market on this game and Styles' performance was revealing. Wenger and Arsenal rose above such manipulations in style - I'm reluctantly developing a sympathetic support for the Gunners this season.
See previous post on the machinations against Arsenal at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/six-three-to-arsenal.html.
In another multi-layered market, some British bookies were also breathing a sigh of relief after Christanval's late equaliser for Fulham at West Ham. Graham Poll's sending off of Zamora and 5 minutes of added time certainly helped. Incidentally, while we are on the subject of the Hammers, they have developed an entirely different market template since the arrival of Curbishley - not surprisingly, the same template existed at Charlton when Curbishley and Day were in control. Yesterday, the decision to replace Green with the ineffective Carroll contributed to two lost points.
A big trading day for us yesterday with 6 winners from 6 trading positions as subscribers to Dietrological will testify.
PS Post Sunday Update - 2 minutes into injury time at Messina and we were about to achieve a 9 out of 9 trading weekend. Then Parisi levelled and, even though Rocchi gave Roma a one man advantage for the final minutes, we were undone. 8/9...
See previous post on the machinations against Arsenal at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/six-three-to-arsenal.html.
In another multi-layered market, some British bookies were also breathing a sigh of relief after Christanval's late equaliser for Fulham at West Ham. Graham Poll's sending off of Zamora and 5 minutes of added time certainly helped. Incidentally, while we are on the subject of the Hammers, they have developed an entirely different market template since the arrival of Curbishley - not surprisingly, the same template existed at Charlton when Curbishley and Day were in control. Yesterday, the decision to replace Green with the ineffective Carroll contributed to two lost points.
A big trading day for us yesterday with 6 winners from 6 trading positions as subscribers to Dietrological will testify.
PS Post Sunday Update - 2 minutes into injury time at Messina and we were about to achieve a 9 out of 9 trading weekend. Then Parisi levelled and, even though Rocchi gave Roma a one man advantage for the final minutes, we were undone. 8/9...
Saturday, 13 January 2007
Psychological Profiling
Our Trading Team use many forms of analysis to keep ahead of the market - our team is multi-disciplinary with skills covering financial market analysis, economics, psychology, neurology, cybernetics, astrophysics, statistics, quantum physics, political philosophy and logic.
In recent years, we have noticed that it has become increasingly important to undertake Psychological Profiling (PP) of the key individuals in the markets that we trade. The value of such profiling is that it enables our analysts to predict how an individual might react to a given set of circumstances. This obviously provides a trading edge.
We are all a complex mixture of Personality Styles and Disorders. Although we may possess individually unique traits and attitudes, there are holistic generalisations that might be applied to, for example, all individuals suffering from Obsessive/ Compulsive Personality Disorder. Because of this, PP is a critical part of our trading armoury with respect to sports, political and financial markets.
In a future post, we will provide our PPs of a few characters who are about to leave centre stage. From politics, Tony Blair; from football, Fabian Barthez and from globalised capitalism, Rupert Murdoch.
We're with Sun Tzu on this matter - know your enemy.
In recent years, we have noticed that it has become increasingly important to undertake Psychological Profiling (PP) of the key individuals in the markets that we trade. The value of such profiling is that it enables our analysts to predict how an individual might react to a given set of circumstances. This obviously provides a trading edge.
We are all a complex mixture of Personality Styles and Disorders. Although we may possess individually unique traits and attitudes, there are holistic generalisations that might be applied to, for example, all individuals suffering from Obsessive/ Compulsive Personality Disorder. Because of this, PP is a critical part of our trading armoury with respect to sports, political and financial markets.
In a future post, we will provide our PPs of a few characters who are about to leave centre stage. From politics, Tony Blair; from football, Fabian Barthez and from globalised capitalism, Rupert Murdoch.
We're with Sun Tzu on this matter - know your enemy.
Manipulated Media
The Guardian (TG) is the leading left-of-centre mainstream newspaper in England (so it says here). Apart from the occasional article by George Monbiot, I'd prefer to view it as a pile of elitist baloney for the chattering classes.
One would expect that a bastion of journalism would provide insightful, investigative, shrewd and laterally-thought analysis about the world in which we live. With regard to football and sport in general, this is most certainly not the case.
A few examples... TG provides a mouthpiece for Harry Redknapp and David James (with their respective ghost writers). Regular readers of this blog will understand our concern at such "journalism" in a broadsheet. TG employs Racing Post writer Keith Pullein to put out tipping disinformation (the Racing Post is an industry-owned manipulative paper). What sort of service is this? And the horseracing correspondents are Chris Cook and Greg Wood who are effectively controlled by the racing industry etc etc etc. This simply isn't journalism.
Additionally, this week in a misguided attempt to attract readers to the Guardian sportblog, two quite offensive articles were posted (one justifying sectarianism by Nicky Campbell and one sensationalist piece of nonsense about scousers by the usually perceptive Paul Doyle). Neither even warrant a link.
Dumbed down and disinformational writing is not what we need - we get enough of that elsewhere in the paper from the likes of David Aaronovitch.
Chomsky, as usual, is correct in his assertion that spectacular society controls all mainstream media in Britain and the US.
One would expect that a bastion of journalism would provide insightful, investigative, shrewd and laterally-thought analysis about the world in which we live. With regard to football and sport in general, this is most certainly not the case.
A few examples... TG provides a mouthpiece for Harry Redknapp and David James (with their respective ghost writers). Regular readers of this blog will understand our concern at such "journalism" in a broadsheet. TG employs Racing Post writer Keith Pullein to put out tipping disinformation (the Racing Post is an industry-owned manipulative paper). What sort of service is this? And the horseracing correspondents are Chris Cook and Greg Wood who are effectively controlled by the racing industry etc etc etc. This simply isn't journalism.
Additionally, this week in a misguided attempt to attract readers to the Guardian sportblog, two quite offensive articles were posted (one justifying sectarianism by Nicky Campbell and one sensationalist piece of nonsense about scousers by the usually perceptive Paul Doyle). Neither even warrant a link.
Dumbed down and disinformational writing is not what we need - we get enough of that elsewhere in the paper from the likes of David Aaronovitch.
Chomsky, as usual, is correct in his assertion that spectacular society controls all mainstream media in Britain and the US.
Friday, 12 January 2007
Where's Your Broker, Referee?
Previous posts (particularly at: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/11/structure-to-avoid-corruption-part-1.html) have addressed the negative aspects of the Premiership using such a small pool of referees compared with other European leagues.
With the introduction of Lee Probert for this weekend's Sheff Utd/ Portsmouth clash, the number of officials used this season reaches 19 (compared with over 40 in Italy).
As with any new official, we will be monitoring Mr Probert's performance very closely - one of our junior traders is attending the game (new referee + Redknapp + James just being too tempting a proposition!).
The limited number of officials is only part of the problem. Take the live Sky Premiership games in 2006/07, for example. Poll, Styles and Wiley have officiated at 9 games; Dowd and Bennett 8; Webb 7; Riley and Foy 6; Clattenburg and Dean 5. At the other end of the range, Rennie, Walton and Mason 2; Tanner, Gallagher and Probert 0.
We would like to highlight a few salient points relating to this data. Firstly, Dermot Gallagher used to be a darling of the powers-that-be. He was even granted a year's grace on his retirement for services rendered. They could always rely on Dermot. In this his last season, the man has been ostracised. No live games and a 2 month ban for not officiating Man City v Portsmouth to the satisfaction of the people that matter in the game (Paparesta was only banned for 2.5 months for his role in Moggiopoli!).
Secondly, in 2005 Mike Dean was suspended for taking a role (against the terms of his contract) in Arbitros Racing - an online racehorse syndicate. The length of his ban? Two and a half months. Dean is a favourite of the Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) and, with a decade of service to come, represents a key part of the future of refereeing in this country.
Thirdly, we monitor volatility across all market sectors as a central part of our trading operation. Guess which two referees are rated the most volatile in the Premiership according to our databases? Poll and Wiley! Spooky, or what?
The reason that the choice of officials for the live Sky games is so important is that global betting turnover is significantly higher on these live events. Additionally, there is much greater liquidity for trading these games in-running.
We would not suggest any link between any of the above individuals and any betting organisations - feedback loops are complex analytically and one can only determine manipulative structures as opposed to forensic criminality. We would suggest, however, that both a larger pool of match officials and a greater distribution of referees for the live games would minimise the possibilities for any grouping to aim to manipulate the outcomes of Premiership football matches.
The rumours that the PGMOL is to select 10 elite officials for next season should be a major cause for concern within the game.
With the introduction of Lee Probert for this weekend's Sheff Utd/ Portsmouth clash, the number of officials used this season reaches 19 (compared with over 40 in Italy).
As with any new official, we will be monitoring Mr Probert's performance very closely - one of our junior traders is attending the game (new referee + Redknapp + James just being too tempting a proposition!).
The limited number of officials is only part of the problem. Take the live Sky Premiership games in 2006/07, for example. Poll, Styles and Wiley have officiated at 9 games; Dowd and Bennett 8; Webb 7; Riley and Foy 6; Clattenburg and Dean 5. At the other end of the range, Rennie, Walton and Mason 2; Tanner, Gallagher and Probert 0.
We would like to highlight a few salient points relating to this data. Firstly, Dermot Gallagher used to be a darling of the powers-that-be. He was even granted a year's grace on his retirement for services rendered. They could always rely on Dermot. In this his last season, the man has been ostracised. No live games and a 2 month ban for not officiating Man City v Portsmouth to the satisfaction of the people that matter in the game (Paparesta was only banned for 2.5 months for his role in Moggiopoli!).
Secondly, in 2005 Mike Dean was suspended for taking a role (against the terms of his contract) in Arbitros Racing - an online racehorse syndicate. The length of his ban? Two and a half months. Dean is a favourite of the Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) and, with a decade of service to come, represents a key part of the future of refereeing in this country.
Thirdly, we monitor volatility across all market sectors as a central part of our trading operation. Guess which two referees are rated the most volatile in the Premiership according to our databases? Poll and Wiley! Spooky, or what?
The reason that the choice of officials for the live Sky games is so important is that global betting turnover is significantly higher on these live events. Additionally, there is much greater liquidity for trading these games in-running.
We would not suggest any link between any of the above individuals and any betting organisations - feedback loops are complex analytically and one can only determine manipulative structures as opposed to forensic criminality. We would suggest, however, that both a larger pool of match officials and a greater distribution of referees for the live games would minimise the possibilities for any grouping to aim to manipulate the outcomes of Premiership football matches.
The rumours that the PGMOL is to select 10 elite officials for next season should be a major cause for concern within the game.
Wednesday, 10 January 2007
Black Country Dilemmas
Following the summer spectacular of nice Mick McCarthy instead of talented Paul Ince, Wolves fans now might be offered Pini Zahavi and Graeme Souness to replace Sir Jack Hayward, Jez Moxley and the Wolverhampton Wanderers Board. A Rock and a Hard Place...
Six Three to the Arsenal
Arsenal's total football was exhilarating at Anfield last night - the flair, the skills, the kinship, the style... Arsene Wenger is a maestro who should be treasured by the English game. From the vastly improved Almunia to the startlingly talented Aliadiere, the reserve Gunners were stratospheric. Compare the style of these Arsenal second-stringers with O'Shea, Fletcher, Smith, Sylvestre, Bardsley, Rossi, Park, Kuszczak etc - no comparison.
In an age when so much on offer in the Premiership is dross, it is criminal that there are high-level machinations against the principled entertainers of Arsenal. Don't get me wrong, Arsenal utilise their power in a similar manner to any other big club. David Dein is currently Chairman of the G14(18) and, historically, Arsenal have always maximised their leverage in the domestic game. But the new power structures in the England are determinedly anti-Gunner. We believe that Wenger/ Dein are aware of the hidden agenda against their team but that they choose to attempt to rise above the tawdry world of cartelised corruption.
For legal reasons we must take care in our individualisation of particular fixed events and, consequently, we are limited to talking in general terms on this blog with respect to specific manipulations. Notwithstanding this proviso, we believe that Arsenal have been denied 13 points in season 2006/07 via a variety of manipulations against their interests. Arsenal would lie 2 points behind Man U with an easier second half of the campaign ahead if their events had been clean.
Looking at the domestic cup competitions - Arsenal have been randomly drawn against WBA (a), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Tottenham (h/a), Liverpool (a) and Bolton (h) which is a bit more challenging than Wycombe, Macclesfield and Nottingham Forest, for example.
Although it is admirable to maintain your strategy despite criminal perturbations, Arsenal need to become more creatively proactive in their dealings with the new power pyramid or face a future where they are effectively chasing the Premiership title with a built-in handicap. It's just like horseracing really!
In an age when so much on offer in the Premiership is dross, it is criminal that there are high-level machinations against the principled entertainers of Arsenal. Don't get me wrong, Arsenal utilise their power in a similar manner to any other big club. David Dein is currently Chairman of the G14(18) and, historically, Arsenal have always maximised their leverage in the domestic game. But the new power structures in the England are determinedly anti-Gunner. We believe that Wenger/ Dein are aware of the hidden agenda against their team but that they choose to attempt to rise above the tawdry world of cartelised corruption.
For legal reasons we must take care in our individualisation of particular fixed events and, consequently, we are limited to talking in general terms on this blog with respect to specific manipulations. Notwithstanding this proviso, we believe that Arsenal have been denied 13 points in season 2006/07 via a variety of manipulations against their interests. Arsenal would lie 2 points behind Man U with an easier second half of the campaign ahead if their events had been clean.
Looking at the domestic cup competitions - Arsenal have been randomly drawn against WBA (a), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Tottenham (h/a), Liverpool (a) and Bolton (h) which is a bit more challenging than Wycombe, Macclesfield and Nottingham Forest, for example.
Although it is admirable to maintain your strategy despite criminal perturbations, Arsenal need to become more creatively proactive in their dealings with the new power pyramid or face a future where they are effectively chasing the Premiership title with a built-in handicap. It's just like horseracing really!
Tuesday, 9 January 2007
Testing the Validity of Conspiracy Theories
Conspiracy Theories (CTs) are bobbins unless they can be backed up by supportive analysis based on a clear holistic overview of the area of engagement OR one has access to very privileged inside information.
A common mistake made by market and political observers is to develop a certainty of opinion on any given opaque potentially corrupt structure. From most of our perspectives, we are only able to judge a reality from our relative position to that reality and all such assessments must be addressed on a probabilistic basis. Although one might add historical analyses to any current analysis, each individual event must be isolated in it's own unique timeframe. In short, black and white attitudes must necessarily fade to grey in any attempt to model a conspiracy. It is not within the scope of this short post to raise the question of what mechanisms might exist in popular culture that lead to the invention and subsequent uptake of CTs. We hope to look at the psychological mechanisms underpinning markets, politics and business in increasingly greater detail over 2007.
Different cultures approach CTs in different ways. The Italian chattering classes have a word for it - Dietrologia (the science of what is behind something). Italians have a healthy mistrust of their rulers and institutions and constantly evaluate the machinations between the branches of power. Moggiopoli was merely a proof of what was already generally accepted in the country. Similarly in Russia where any event extrapolates exponentially to a shower of fantastic scenarios (some of which are probably true).
In England, attitudes are inevitably polarised and there is extensive naivety at both ends of the CTs credibility spectrum. When we were first openly discussing the possibility of corruption in English football, we were surprised at the general response. A quasi-religious "if what you say is true then my belief in society no longer exists" was a typical attitude of outsiders. Most people are blind to corruption and exhibit a tendency to shoot the messenger even when presented with irrefutable proof. For example, check out the difficulties experienced by the whistleblowers at Enron and WorldCom. The response of insiders to our initial approaches were far more entertaining!
We approach all opaque structures with an open mind. We always alter our opinions if evidence surfaces that undermines a current view. Where possible we provide proper analysis with full data but, in the many areas where full disclosure might impinge on our proprietary unified trading model (UTM), we precis our perceptions. We are confident that our projections will be realised in time.
In forthcoming posts, we will look at individual CTs structures seeking out the patterns that might allow our opinion to move towards the likelihood of a conspiratorial edifice. We will also look at some of the common errors made by observers of potentially corrupt spectacular society events including erroneous cause and effect linkages and the underestimation of feedback loops.
A common mistake made by market and political observers is to develop a certainty of opinion on any given opaque potentially corrupt structure. From most of our perspectives, we are only able to judge a reality from our relative position to that reality and all such assessments must be addressed on a probabilistic basis. Although one might add historical analyses to any current analysis, each individual event must be isolated in it's own unique timeframe. In short, black and white attitudes must necessarily fade to grey in any attempt to model a conspiracy. It is not within the scope of this short post to raise the question of what mechanisms might exist in popular culture that lead to the invention and subsequent uptake of CTs. We hope to look at the psychological mechanisms underpinning markets, politics and business in increasingly greater detail over 2007.
Different cultures approach CTs in different ways. The Italian chattering classes have a word for it - Dietrologia (the science of what is behind something). Italians have a healthy mistrust of their rulers and institutions and constantly evaluate the machinations between the branches of power. Moggiopoli was merely a proof of what was already generally accepted in the country. Similarly in Russia where any event extrapolates exponentially to a shower of fantastic scenarios (some of which are probably true).
In England, attitudes are inevitably polarised and there is extensive naivety at both ends of the CTs credibility spectrum. When we were first openly discussing the possibility of corruption in English football, we were surprised at the general response. A quasi-religious "if what you say is true then my belief in society no longer exists" was a typical attitude of outsiders. Most people are blind to corruption and exhibit a tendency to shoot the messenger even when presented with irrefutable proof. For example, check out the difficulties experienced by the whistleblowers at Enron and WorldCom. The response of insiders to our initial approaches were far more entertaining!
We approach all opaque structures with an open mind. We always alter our opinions if evidence surfaces that undermines a current view. Where possible we provide proper analysis with full data but, in the many areas where full disclosure might impinge on our proprietary unified trading model (UTM), we precis our perceptions. We are confident that our projections will be realised in time.
In forthcoming posts, we will look at individual CTs structures seeking out the patterns that might allow our opinion to move towards the likelihood of a conspiratorial edifice. We will also look at some of the common errors made by observers of potentially corrupt spectacular society events including erroneous cause and effect linkages and the underestimation of feedback loops.
Monday, 8 January 2007
Comparative Corruption in Major Football Leagues
Every three months, we update our assessment of the degree of corruption exhibited in the different market sectors that we trade. Effectively, we are judging the maturity of each sector and sub-sector in this operation. This is necessary in order to be able to correctly utilise our proprietary unified trading model (UTM).
We are not willing to disclose either the formulation or the full results but below we compare the maturities of the four leading European football leagues (totally corrupt = 0/ totally open = 100).
Premiership 38
Primera Liga 48
Serie A 56
Bundesliga 68
We have been trading on the corruption of these leagues for many years. Last year, the information that came to the surface during Moggiopoli had formed part of our competitive advantage in trading Serie A. It would be good to think that our current competitive advantage on trading the Premiership will be addressed by the authorities in England.
Selfishly, it is of no concern to us whether a market is corrupt or not, we make money whatever. But, altruistically, we want a clean sport and non-manipulated markets that give everyone a chance.
Italy still isn't clean but corruption is being targeted in real-time. Following their escape from a deserved relegation, Milan started the 2006/07 season as if nothing had happened. Galliani, through his proxies, managed to secure Bertini and Trefoloni to referee the first two games of the season. Same as it ever was... But, no. Milan have had virtually no control of refereeing appointments subsequently which is totally unheard of. Juventus relegated... Milan losing their power!! And that isn't all. There is considerable concern about the amount of insider trading at Inter Milan and the authorities are actively addressing the issue. What we are saying is this. Italian football is still corrupt but forensic analysis of the events and the markets is confronting the corruption as it happens. Obviously, not all the corruption as it is Italy - Roma remain the most-favoured team of the season to date in any of the territories that we trade.
We are not willing to disclose either the formulation or the full results but below we compare the maturities of the four leading European football leagues (totally corrupt = 0/ totally open = 100).
Premiership 38
Primera Liga 48
Serie A 56
Bundesliga 68
We have been trading on the corruption of these leagues for many years. Last year, the information that came to the surface during Moggiopoli had formed part of our competitive advantage in trading Serie A. It would be good to think that our current competitive advantage on trading the Premiership will be addressed by the authorities in England.
Selfishly, it is of no concern to us whether a market is corrupt or not, we make money whatever. But, altruistically, we want a clean sport and non-manipulated markets that give everyone a chance.
Italy still isn't clean but corruption is being targeted in real-time. Following their escape from a deserved relegation, Milan started the 2006/07 season as if nothing had happened. Galliani, through his proxies, managed to secure Bertini and Trefoloni to referee the first two games of the season. Same as it ever was... But, no. Milan have had virtually no control of refereeing appointments subsequently which is totally unheard of. Juventus relegated... Milan losing their power!! And that isn't all. There is considerable concern about the amount of insider trading at Inter Milan and the authorities are actively addressing the issue. What we are saying is this. Italian football is still corrupt but forensic analysis of the events and the markets is confronting the corruption as it happens. Obviously, not all the corruption as it is Italy - Roma remain the most-favoured team of the season to date in any of the territories that we trade.
Monopolies, Duopolies and Cartelisation - A Model
Last November, one of the triggers that led to the decision to put the views of myself and my Trading Team in a blog was the state of uproarious corruption in the Premiership.
Lets get a few things straight. Systemic corruption has been a part of the Premiership since it's inception. European football is simply following the developmental path that all market sectors undergo in our current global financial system. Below we have printed a simple chart detailing the progression of a given market sector from birth to maturity and beyond.
Phase 1 - Infant - quality research and strategic foresight are the prime competitive advantages. Typical of this phase is the nanotechnology sector.
Phase 2 - Young - market analysts address the sector and there is now information in the market price. An example would be biotechnology.
Phase 3 - Middle Aged - increasing efficiency of the financial markets and less value in the fundamentals. Many IT sectors fall into this category.
Phase 4 - Mature - competitive financial markets dominate the industry sector leading to minimal value in fundamental analysis eg investment banking sector.
Phase 5 - Monopolies/ Duopolies/ Cartelisation/ Fragmented Cartelisation - total control exercised by one or a small number of power bases acting in unison - OPEC, global accounting firms, De Beers, aircraft manufacturers are all phase 5.
And so is Premiership football.
Phase 5 is the most corrupt phase unless there is a keen regulatory environment to force monopolists to be less psychopathic in their targeting of power and control. When our team of Market Analysts became convinced that the Premiership had fully matured, we made a decision to go public with details of the abuses being perpetrated by some members of the football establishment. Maturing markets highlight one of the prime differences between shareholder and stakeholder capitalism. The former is effectively fascistic in that it is libertarian behaviour without any sense of social responsibility while the latter is grounded in regulation to protect all participants (to some extent). Stakeholder capitalism is no panacea but it is currently a necessary first step on the incremental journey towards developing a sustainable system for the planet. Realism undermines any thought of revolution.
The current system of globalisation has a built-in obsolescence due to the psychopathic personality disorders (PPDs) exhibited by many of the leading protagonists. Their short-termism is leading to serious planetary climatic instability. Once atmospheric physics becomes unstable, we are guessing when it comes to evaluating the different feedback loops that might impact upon our future climate.
Football Is Fixed is just one of thousands and thousands of small-scale informational and analytical sources that have sprung up on the internet to confront these Phase 5 abusers. Although football corruption is globally insignificant when compared to climate change, we believe many of the same manipulative hierarchies, structures and strategies exist across all Phase 5 sectors. Shed light on one sector and illuminate them all.
We are looking forward to short-selling the system!
Lets get a few things straight. Systemic corruption has been a part of the Premiership since it's inception. European football is simply following the developmental path that all market sectors undergo in our current global financial system. Below we have printed a simple chart detailing the progression of a given market sector from birth to maturity and beyond.
Phase 1 - Infant - quality research and strategic foresight are the prime competitive advantages. Typical of this phase is the nanotechnology sector.
Phase 2 - Young - market analysts address the sector and there is now information in the market price. An example would be biotechnology.
Phase 3 - Middle Aged - increasing efficiency of the financial markets and less value in the fundamentals. Many IT sectors fall into this category.
Phase 4 - Mature - competitive financial markets dominate the industry sector leading to minimal value in fundamental analysis eg investment banking sector.
Phase 5 - Monopolies/ Duopolies/ Cartelisation/ Fragmented Cartelisation - total control exercised by one or a small number of power bases acting in unison - OPEC, global accounting firms, De Beers, aircraft manufacturers are all phase 5.
And so is Premiership football.
Phase 5 is the most corrupt phase unless there is a keen regulatory environment to force monopolists to be less psychopathic in their targeting of power and control. When our team of Market Analysts became convinced that the Premiership had fully matured, we made a decision to go public with details of the abuses being perpetrated by some members of the football establishment. Maturing markets highlight one of the prime differences between shareholder and stakeholder capitalism. The former is effectively fascistic in that it is libertarian behaviour without any sense of social responsibility while the latter is grounded in regulation to protect all participants (to some extent). Stakeholder capitalism is no panacea but it is currently a necessary first step on the incremental journey towards developing a sustainable system for the planet. Realism undermines any thought of revolution.
The current system of globalisation has a built-in obsolescence due to the psychopathic personality disorders (PPDs) exhibited by many of the leading protagonists. Their short-termism is leading to serious planetary climatic instability. Once atmospheric physics becomes unstable, we are guessing when it comes to evaluating the different feedback loops that might impact upon our future climate.
Football Is Fixed is just one of thousands and thousands of small-scale informational and analytical sources that have sprung up on the internet to confront these Phase 5 abusers. Although football corruption is globally insignificant when compared to climate change, we believe many of the same manipulative hierarchies, structures and strategies exist across all Phase 5 sectors. Shed light on one sector and illuminate them all.
We are looking forward to short-selling the system!
Sunday, 7 January 2007
The Other Team in Glasgow
The creative self-destruction of the other team in Glasgow is obviously an item of great mirth but it is not good for the competitiveness of Scottish football in the longer term.
Since the institutional omnipotence of the Walter Smith/ Hugh Dallas years, the club have become directionless and financially insecure. The Le Guen v Ferguson duel epitomises this decline. If you had asked at the beginning of the season I would have named these two individuals as the key competitive advantages that Rangers possessed - a world class manager and a Premiership standard player. With Celtic engaged in the Champions League and refereeing bias yielding it's ugly head again (Celtic have had one penalty all season - in the 90th minute of a game that they were already winning), Rangers were primed for SPL success. Instead they trail by 17 points and their home form is the equivalent of the Bhoys away returns.
Bookies reckon it's Walter Smith time all over again (probably with Jimmy Tarbuck as his assistant) - the word "dinosaur" springs to mind. Until Rangers adopt a greater degree of cultural and societal inclusion at all levels of their organisation, they are destined to scrap with Aberdeen and Lithuania for 2nd place.
Crikey, they even lost to one of their own reserve teams in the Scottish Cup today!
Since the institutional omnipotence of the Walter Smith/ Hugh Dallas years, the club have become directionless and financially insecure. The Le Guen v Ferguson duel epitomises this decline. If you had asked at the beginning of the season I would have named these two individuals as the key competitive advantages that Rangers possessed - a world class manager and a Premiership standard player. With Celtic engaged in the Champions League and refereeing bias yielding it's ugly head again (Celtic have had one penalty all season - in the 90th minute of a game that they were already winning), Rangers were primed for SPL success. Instead they trail by 17 points and their home form is the equivalent of the Bhoys away returns.
Bookies reckon it's Walter Smith time all over again (probably with Jimmy Tarbuck as his assistant) - the word "dinosaur" springs to mind. Until Rangers adopt a greater degree of cultural and societal inclusion at all levels of their organisation, they are destined to scrap with Aberdeen and Lithuania for 2nd place.
Crikey, they even lost to one of their own reserve teams in the Scottish Cup today!
Friday, 5 January 2007
20 Reasons Not To Bet On British Horseracing
British horseracing is riddled with corruption. 10 years ago, I undertook a PhD at The Centre for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming at Salford University and my thesis was entitled "The Impact of Conspicuous Money on Outcome in British Horseracing Markets".
Via the catalyst of my tutor, Professor Neville Topham, I was able to meet with the powerbrokers of the industry sector in this country. One of the most fascinating series of encounters was with Rodney Brack - the Chief Executive of the British Horserace Betting Levy Board (BHBLB). In the initial interactions, we discussed the mechanisms that allow certain key operators within the sport to affect the outcome of races. Jokes were shared and there was a general air of good-natured bonhomie.
Prior to a later meeting at the BHBLB offices in London, Mr Brack had decided to do a background check on me. The Direct Action Movement, the Hunt Saboteurs and the Animal Liberation Front came up and, suddenly, we were at a very different race meeting! The CEO moved into duplicitous overdrive and everything that had been black was now white and vice versa. Corruption? Nonsense. Fixed races? You are biased. Previous discussions? Denials. I considered going public with my proof of the corruption in horseracing but eventually decided to utilise my knowledge in a more creative manner.
Below are the prime reasons why one shouldn't go anywhere near horserace betting markets unless you are muscled up with either inside information from the horse's mouth (as it were) or a state-of-the-art trading model.
1. For most races, the outcome is determined by betting patterns and liabilities. Form is virtually irrelevant. These betting patterns are not publicly available.
2. In football, we must endure corrupt players, referees and managers. The parallels in racing are jockeys, clerks of racecourses, trainers/owners. Corrupt bookmakers and industry sector officials are ubiquitous in both sports.
3. Never bet on the All Weather. These events are the most corrupted and randomised.
4. Many stables are betting stables and they employ proprietary trading strategies that can only be deciphered by a few select individuals. This adds volatility to the market.
5. Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs) are used widely in the sport.
6. All sources of potentially valuable information are industry-owned and, consequently, cannot be trusted.
7. Gambling winnings are not enforceable under law. Very few bookmakers allow winning accounts.
8. It is cruel.
9. The watering of racecourses (ostensibly to soften the ground) is a very manipulative tool that significantly affects the results of races.
10. The jockeys are well paid but obedient and they carry out the instructions of the key market operators.
11. The Racing Post and The Sporting Life and ALL the mainstream media print the information that the betting industry wishes them to print. Disinformation is the norm.
12. The technology utilised for photo finishes is able to be manipulated.
13. On the few occasions when there is a certainty, nobody will lay you a decent sized bet without cropping your price.
14. Betting rings are full of criminals, psychopaths, posh totty and associated slime merchants - it is not a sophisticated office space with it's permanent stench of corruption. Most people are losing money and, subconciously, they understand that they are being taken for a ride.
15. It panders to the establishment and reinforces class issues. Your money allows the upper and upper-middle classes to give prizes to each other; it provides taxation for the government and profit for the bookies and their shareholders.
16. Some of the leading Saudi owners have very opaque strategies for the horses in their ownership. It can seem like the equivalent of deciphering OPEC at times.
17. The key traders place their bets in private very early or as late as possible on the rails. The big betting firms only play the ring in the period leading up to the race. One must maximise the information to be competitive in such corrupted markets and it is often difficult to get your money on late.
18. The handicapping of racehorses is manipulated in favour of insiders.
19. Like the gypsy musicians in Romania, Irish trainers and jockeys are given respect by the establishment in this country. But it is a lacklustre, sneering and condescending respect - these people still think Eire is part of the British empire.
20. It is not a sport. It is a rigged casino game transferred to the countryside. Only a small minority of horseraces in this country are totally clean.
Via the catalyst of my tutor, Professor Neville Topham, I was able to meet with the powerbrokers of the industry sector in this country. One of the most fascinating series of encounters was with Rodney Brack - the Chief Executive of the British Horserace Betting Levy Board (BHBLB). In the initial interactions, we discussed the mechanisms that allow certain key operators within the sport to affect the outcome of races. Jokes were shared and there was a general air of good-natured bonhomie.
Prior to a later meeting at the BHBLB offices in London, Mr Brack had decided to do a background check on me. The Direct Action Movement, the Hunt Saboteurs and the Animal Liberation Front came up and, suddenly, we were at a very different race meeting! The CEO moved into duplicitous overdrive and everything that had been black was now white and vice versa. Corruption? Nonsense. Fixed races? You are biased. Previous discussions? Denials. I considered going public with my proof of the corruption in horseracing but eventually decided to utilise my knowledge in a more creative manner.
Below are the prime reasons why one shouldn't go anywhere near horserace betting markets unless you are muscled up with either inside information from the horse's mouth (as it were) or a state-of-the-art trading model.
1. For most races, the outcome is determined by betting patterns and liabilities. Form is virtually irrelevant. These betting patterns are not publicly available.
2. In football, we must endure corrupt players, referees and managers. The parallels in racing are jockeys, clerks of racecourses, trainers/owners. Corrupt bookmakers and industry sector officials are ubiquitous in both sports.
3. Never bet on the All Weather. These events are the most corrupted and randomised.
4. Many stables are betting stables and they employ proprietary trading strategies that can only be deciphered by a few select individuals. This adds volatility to the market.
5. Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs) are used widely in the sport.
6. All sources of potentially valuable information are industry-owned and, consequently, cannot be trusted.
7. Gambling winnings are not enforceable under law. Very few bookmakers allow winning accounts.
8. It is cruel.
9. The watering of racecourses (ostensibly to soften the ground) is a very manipulative tool that significantly affects the results of races.
10. The jockeys are well paid but obedient and they carry out the instructions of the key market operators.
11. The Racing Post and The Sporting Life and ALL the mainstream media print the information that the betting industry wishes them to print. Disinformation is the norm.
12. The technology utilised for photo finishes is able to be manipulated.
13. On the few occasions when there is a certainty, nobody will lay you a decent sized bet without cropping your price.
14. Betting rings are full of criminals, psychopaths, posh totty and associated slime merchants - it is not a sophisticated office space with it's permanent stench of corruption. Most people are losing money and, subconciously, they understand that they are being taken for a ride.
15. It panders to the establishment and reinforces class issues. Your money allows the upper and upper-middle classes to give prizes to each other; it provides taxation for the government and profit for the bookies and their shareholders.
16. Some of the leading Saudi owners have very opaque strategies for the horses in their ownership. It can seem like the equivalent of deciphering OPEC at times.
17. The key traders place their bets in private very early or as late as possible on the rails. The big betting firms only play the ring in the period leading up to the race. One must maximise the information to be competitive in such corrupted markets and it is often difficult to get your money on late.
18. The handicapping of racehorses is manipulated in favour of insiders.
19. Like the gypsy musicians in Romania, Irish trainers and jockeys are given respect by the establishment in this country. But it is a lacklustre, sneering and condescending respect - these people still think Eire is part of the British empire.
20. It is not a sport. It is a rigged casino game transferred to the countryside. Only a small minority of horseraces in this country are totally clean.
Am I Black Enough For You?
Right on cue, Paul Ince highlights the issue of racism in the English game. By criticising English football chairmen for their failure to offer Black British managers the opportunity to work at higher levels, he bravely confronts one example of the extensive racism in the English game. He generously suggests that it may be "a generational thing". It's not. It's a racism thing and Paul Ince is diplomatic not to tread on our white sensibilities.
At the lower echelons of the game, there are a healthy number of players and agents from Afro-Caribbean, African and South American backgrounds. But the higher up the power hierarchy one travels, the whiter it becomes. Football reflects the society in which it operates and the overwhelming whiteness of power in England is startling. Think boxing, cricket, rugby, in fact virtually any sport that one wishes to select and the same racist hierarchy exists. Similarly in politics, business, the media, education, the Civil Service, the police, the military... England is not alone. Throughout Europe the same race-based pyramids exist often with the unwelcome addition of rampant racism on the terraces. UEFA and FIFA develop a few tokenistic marketing campaigns and yet Blatter didn't censure Blokhin or Aragones for their racism prior to last year's World Cup.
Each time I return to England, the meritocratic apartheid is painfully evident. It makes me squirm.
Paul Ince to manage England after MacLaren!!!
At the lower echelons of the game, there are a healthy number of players and agents from Afro-Caribbean, African and South American backgrounds. But the higher up the power hierarchy one travels, the whiter it becomes. Football reflects the society in which it operates and the overwhelming whiteness of power in England is startling. Think boxing, cricket, rugby, in fact virtually any sport that one wishes to select and the same racist hierarchy exists. Similarly in politics, business, the media, education, the Civil Service, the police, the military... England is not alone. Throughout Europe the same race-based pyramids exist often with the unwelcome addition of rampant racism on the terraces. UEFA and FIFA develop a few tokenistic marketing campaigns and yet Blatter didn't censure Blokhin or Aragones for their racism prior to last year's World Cup.
Each time I return to England, the meritocratic apartheid is painfully evident. It makes me squirm.
Paul Ince to manage England after MacLaren!!!
Thursday, 4 January 2007
The Gift of Black Folk
To commemorate 200 years since the abolition of slavery, we intend to produce a series of posts throughout 2007 addressing the current state of racism both in football and in wider society.
RACISM IN ENGLAND
While I have been in England over the holiday period, I cannot help but notice three very clear attitudes on race politics. Firstly, there is the racist in denial ("I'm not racist but..."). Secondly, there are the chattering classes who believe that they have exorcised all "ism" demons. Thirdly, there are the fully fledged racists. This is not a good collective island mentality. Huge burdens of expectation are placed on any individual who wishes to settle in England - a sort of cultural reclassification. And yet, the English abroard exist in their little enclaves and totally shun the local cultures. In some ways, the chattering classes are the main problem. Once they feel that they have done their bit, they relax into an abusive globalised system that brutalises those unfortunate enough to live in the Third World. These were the same individuals who were active enough in Wilberforce's day to create real change - reading the Guardian, being aware of ethnic clothing, listening to both the Today programme and World Music doesn't change anything. A previous partner of mine was Su Andi MBE (the Black Performance Poet) and I was always astonished at the degree of racism that she/we experienced when we were together - mutterings in restaurants, being turned away from hotels when it was seen that we were a mixed race couple etc etc. Much of this racism was minor and/or subliminal but it was a permanent presence nonetheless. It totally taints your existence. I could step away from this racism but she can't ever expect to - that is criminal. And, it is not just in England. While waiting in Athens airport recently, the police approached only three individuals to check their identities - the only three Black people in the lounge...
RACISM IN CAPITALISM
Capitalists, both here and in the USA, complain bitterly about the impact that positive discrimination (PD) has on their ability to exploit the system for their own ends. It matters not in their eyes that PD was established in the first place to address historical inequities in society's structure. And yet, you never hear these same capitalists mention their own tilting of the hierarchy in their favour via the freemasons, the catenians (catholic masons), highly selective trade and industry associations (eg Institute of Directors), cultural elitism, nepotism, the public school system and Oxbridge etc. I have read the Economist for 20 years and have not once seen the word freemason mentioned which is a little peculiar considering the omnipresence of masonic handshakes in business. There is no meritocracy.
Globalisation is slavery for the 21st Century. The current issue of The Economist clearly boasts "Globalisation has shifted the balance of power firmly in favour of the corporate sector and away from labour". Poverty in Africa has increased in the last decade while the major capitalist players - the Hedge Funds, the Private Equity firms, the Investment banks - are bathing in excessive liquidity none of which is to be returned to the workers. There are a considerable proportion of people globally who are directly enslaved in their work conditions and there are probably an equal number who must maintain constant real-time mobility to eke out a living. The Asian and East European workhouses typify the former and the Senegal - Canarias - Italy route typifies the latter. In fact, the Mourides of Senegal have adapted to the new rigours of globalisation in a successful manner but such success depends on taking great risks with your life in over-crowded boats, splitting families and having no employment or government protection or rights. In the last 200 years, capitalism has merely developed more refined structures to impose it's elitist and racist agenda. In the same manner that the US government gave Blacks the vote in the 1960's and then promptly took it off them again by criminalising huge swathes of the Black population, capitalism banned slavery and has now reintroduced it via the back door. Are the thousands of people that are dying in refugee camps, in war zones or in geopolitical and mineral hotspots, indications of the success of globalisation? The huge numbers of Mexicans and Africans who die trying to get into the US and Europe respectively, are they also a sign of that success? AIDS in Africa then? The modern day horrors of Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, Iraq, Palestine have moral equivalence with the Congo, Barbados, Jamaica, India and the US two hundred years ago. All that the capitalists have done is to rebrand their slavery as globalisation. And through it's choice of target, globalisation is a racist system. "The color line" of W.E.B. Du Bois has become a permanent global barrier.
RACISM IN ENGLAND
While I have been in England over the holiday period, I cannot help but notice three very clear attitudes on race politics. Firstly, there is the racist in denial ("I'm not racist but..."). Secondly, there are the chattering classes who believe that they have exorcised all "ism" demons. Thirdly, there are the fully fledged racists. This is not a good collective island mentality. Huge burdens of expectation are placed on any individual who wishes to settle in England - a sort of cultural reclassification. And yet, the English abroard exist in their little enclaves and totally shun the local cultures. In some ways, the chattering classes are the main problem. Once they feel that they have done their bit, they relax into an abusive globalised system that brutalises those unfortunate enough to live in the Third World. These were the same individuals who were active enough in Wilberforce's day to create real change - reading the Guardian, being aware of ethnic clothing, listening to both the Today programme and World Music doesn't change anything. A previous partner of mine was Su Andi MBE (the Black Performance Poet) and I was always astonished at the degree of racism that she/we experienced when we were together - mutterings in restaurants, being turned away from hotels when it was seen that we were a mixed race couple etc etc. Much of this racism was minor and/or subliminal but it was a permanent presence nonetheless. It totally taints your existence. I could step away from this racism but she can't ever expect to - that is criminal. And, it is not just in England. While waiting in Athens airport recently, the police approached only three individuals to check their identities - the only three Black people in the lounge...
RACISM IN CAPITALISM
Capitalists, both here and in the USA, complain bitterly about the impact that positive discrimination (PD) has on their ability to exploit the system for their own ends. It matters not in their eyes that PD was established in the first place to address historical inequities in society's structure. And yet, you never hear these same capitalists mention their own tilting of the hierarchy in their favour via the freemasons, the catenians (catholic masons), highly selective trade and industry associations (eg Institute of Directors), cultural elitism, nepotism, the public school system and Oxbridge etc. I have read the Economist for 20 years and have not once seen the word freemason mentioned which is a little peculiar considering the omnipresence of masonic handshakes in business. There is no meritocracy.
Globalisation is slavery for the 21st Century. The current issue of The Economist clearly boasts "Globalisation has shifted the balance of power firmly in favour of the corporate sector and away from labour". Poverty in Africa has increased in the last decade while the major capitalist players - the Hedge Funds, the Private Equity firms, the Investment banks - are bathing in excessive liquidity none of which is to be returned to the workers. There are a considerable proportion of people globally who are directly enslaved in their work conditions and there are probably an equal number who must maintain constant real-time mobility to eke out a living. The Asian and East European workhouses typify the former and the Senegal - Canarias - Italy route typifies the latter. In fact, the Mourides of Senegal have adapted to the new rigours of globalisation in a successful manner but such success depends on taking great risks with your life in over-crowded boats, splitting families and having no employment or government protection or rights. In the last 200 years, capitalism has merely developed more refined structures to impose it's elitist and racist agenda. In the same manner that the US government gave Blacks the vote in the 1960's and then promptly took it off them again by criminalising huge swathes of the Black population, capitalism banned slavery and has now reintroduced it via the back door. Are the thousands of people that are dying in refugee camps, in war zones or in geopolitical and mineral hotspots, indications of the success of globalisation? The huge numbers of Mexicans and Africans who die trying to get into the US and Europe respectively, are they also a sign of that success? AIDS in Africa then? The modern day horrors of Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, Iraq, Palestine have moral equivalence with the Congo, Barbados, Jamaica, India and the US two hundred years ago. All that the capitalists have done is to rebrand their slavery as globalisation. And through it's choice of target, globalisation is a racist system. "The color line" of W.E.B. Du Bois has become a permanent global barrier.
Wednesday, 3 January 2007
Psychopathic Personality Disorder - A Paradigm
We occasionally use the word "psychopathic" to describe individuals or general behaviour in power hierarchies. In a similar manner that Chomsky uses "fascist" in advocating a bottom-up democratic system, we feel that we should explain the reasoning behind this assertion.
Lorna Benjamin, Theodore Millon, Roger Davis and other leading Personality Disorder researchers are in general agreement that a very significant number of political, business and military leaders, both now and historically, display Psychopathic Personality Disorders (PPDs).
PPDs are created when an individual has two separate disorders that, when co-existant, cause psychopathic behaviour. These two disorders are Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) and Anti-Social Personality Disorder (ASPD).
The ASPD is the prime foundation for the condition and may be sociological and/or pathological in it's roots. A standard case study of such an individual is presented below (adapted from Personality Disorders in Modern Life by T. Millon and R. Davis).
"He (most PPDs are male) thinks that life hasn't given him his fair due. He believes that he has been deprived on the required amount of love and support and material reward and that others have received more than their share. Jealous of others, he is driven by an envious drive for retribution. Through deceit or destruction, his goal is to compensate for the emptiness in his life. Seething with anger, his greatest pleasure is to take control of the properties and possessions of others. Many possess an enormous desire for revenge manipulating others like pawns in a power game. He remains insecure about his power and status. He makes ostentatious and wasteful displays of materialism and conspicuous consumption as a means of exhibiting their power to others. He has little compassion or guilt for the outcomes of their behaviour. He will never be happy. He is fearless under threat. He is unable to gauge his own fear and ploughs ahead violently regardless of risk. He finds life clinically boring and needs sensations of excitement to feel alive. He is aggressive, oppositional and opportunistic".
Many psychopaths are shrewd and calculating and struggle to learn the social mechanics of interpersonal communication thus masking their disorder. Some are able to develop a thoroughly charming mask and are not typical of society's view of such a perpetrator.
The Biological Factors behind PPDs may be split into two types - those known to effect the development of the organism (eg. genetic conditions) and those that accompany the appearance of the syndrome but with uncertain development role (eg. neurotransmitter patterns).
For people with ASPD, the ego develops but the superego doesn't which leads to a total personality that is dominated by an infantile id and the pleasure principle. The combination of ego and intellectual cunning is always present. Social conventions and ideals have no intrinsic value to ASPDs and, whereas normal persons rationalise their behaviour to themselves, ASPDs develop accounts of their behaviour that are plausible to others.
ASPDs seek to control others while doing everything possible to avoid being controlled themselves. Their goal in life is to achieve power and prosperity by monopolistic abuse. Their moral perspective can be described as "morality is an illusion/ goodness is weakness/ trust is naive".
Additionally, there are a range of other Personality Disorders that are often present in those with PPDs including Paranoid Personality Disorder and Sadistic Personality Disorder.
It is evident that such individuals seek out positions of power and control in the military, business and politics arenas. The above template fits with far too many historical and current figures from Genghis Khan to Saddam Hussein, Nelson to Nixon, the Robber Barons of the 19th century to the neo-Conservative Shareholder Capitalists of today.
In relation to the financial and football markets, the whole structure of the trading system is psychopathic. Monopolistic abuse is sought out as a business strategy. Manipulation and corruption are seen as competitive advantages. Cartelisation is creative networking at a corporate level. The markets are manipulated in a variety of simple and complex ways that allow advantageous trading conditions for insiders and market operators. The markets are not transparent and disinformation is rife. Insider trading is accomodated and, indeed, encouraged. The accounting and legal systems are swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Institutions, governments and regulatory bodies are co-opted into the power structures. The psychopathic operators seek control of their environment - they deal with absolutes and not probabilities. The less level the playing field, the better.
In the current global investment climate, individuals with PPDs have the ideal credentials to succeed in a system that is designed with a prime purpose of helping them to succeed. Due to globalisation, the prize for the psychopathic man is greater than at any time in history. The downside for the rest of the planet is that these psychopathic individuals are making psychopathic decisions that effect all of us in all areas of our life in a manner not seen before in history. Their thinking is short-termist (as defined by their condition) and their desire for instant gratification is one of the key problems underpinning climate change, for example.
We strongly believe that the global dynamics of the football industry (and it's associated market sectors) act as a clear parallel to the rest of the global financial system - our Trading Team apply virtually the same Unified Trading Model (UTM) to both the sports and the money markets. We will continue to attempt to address these parallels and to utilise football issues as a window to wider societal issues.
Lorna Benjamin, Theodore Millon, Roger Davis and other leading Personality Disorder researchers are in general agreement that a very significant number of political, business and military leaders, both now and historically, display Psychopathic Personality Disorders (PPDs).
PPDs are created when an individual has two separate disorders that, when co-existant, cause psychopathic behaviour. These two disorders are Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) and Anti-Social Personality Disorder (ASPD).
The ASPD is the prime foundation for the condition and may be sociological and/or pathological in it's roots. A standard case study of such an individual is presented below (adapted from Personality Disorders in Modern Life by T. Millon and R. Davis).
"He (most PPDs are male) thinks that life hasn't given him his fair due. He believes that he has been deprived on the required amount of love and support and material reward and that others have received more than their share. Jealous of others, he is driven by an envious drive for retribution. Through deceit or destruction, his goal is to compensate for the emptiness in his life. Seething with anger, his greatest pleasure is to take control of the properties and possessions of others. Many possess an enormous desire for revenge manipulating others like pawns in a power game. He remains insecure about his power and status. He makes ostentatious and wasteful displays of materialism and conspicuous consumption as a means of exhibiting their power to others. He has little compassion or guilt for the outcomes of their behaviour. He will never be happy. He is fearless under threat. He is unable to gauge his own fear and ploughs ahead violently regardless of risk. He finds life clinically boring and needs sensations of excitement to feel alive. He is aggressive, oppositional and opportunistic".
Many psychopaths are shrewd and calculating and struggle to learn the social mechanics of interpersonal communication thus masking their disorder. Some are able to develop a thoroughly charming mask and are not typical of society's view of such a perpetrator.
The Biological Factors behind PPDs may be split into two types - those known to effect the development of the organism (eg. genetic conditions) and those that accompany the appearance of the syndrome but with uncertain development role (eg. neurotransmitter patterns).
For people with ASPD, the ego develops but the superego doesn't which leads to a total personality that is dominated by an infantile id and the pleasure principle. The combination of ego and intellectual cunning is always present. Social conventions and ideals have no intrinsic value to ASPDs and, whereas normal persons rationalise their behaviour to themselves, ASPDs develop accounts of their behaviour that are plausible to others.
ASPDs seek to control others while doing everything possible to avoid being controlled themselves. Their goal in life is to achieve power and prosperity by monopolistic abuse. Their moral perspective can be described as "morality is an illusion/ goodness is weakness/ trust is naive".
Additionally, there are a range of other Personality Disorders that are often present in those with PPDs including Paranoid Personality Disorder and Sadistic Personality Disorder.
It is evident that such individuals seek out positions of power and control in the military, business and politics arenas. The above template fits with far too many historical and current figures from Genghis Khan to Saddam Hussein, Nelson to Nixon, the Robber Barons of the 19th century to the neo-Conservative Shareholder Capitalists of today.
In relation to the financial and football markets, the whole structure of the trading system is psychopathic. Monopolistic abuse is sought out as a business strategy. Manipulation and corruption are seen as competitive advantages. Cartelisation is creative networking at a corporate level. The markets are manipulated in a variety of simple and complex ways that allow advantageous trading conditions for insiders and market operators. The markets are not transparent and disinformation is rife. Insider trading is accomodated and, indeed, encouraged. The accounting and legal systems are swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Institutions, governments and regulatory bodies are co-opted into the power structures. The psychopathic operators seek control of their environment - they deal with absolutes and not probabilities. The less level the playing field, the better.
In the current global investment climate, individuals with PPDs have the ideal credentials to succeed in a system that is designed with a prime purpose of helping them to succeed. Due to globalisation, the prize for the psychopathic man is greater than at any time in history. The downside for the rest of the planet is that these psychopathic individuals are making psychopathic decisions that effect all of us in all areas of our life in a manner not seen before in history. Their thinking is short-termist (as defined by their condition) and their desire for instant gratification is one of the key problems underpinning climate change, for example.
We strongly believe that the global dynamics of the football industry (and it's associated market sectors) act as a clear parallel to the rest of the global financial system - our Trading Team apply virtually the same Unified Trading Model (UTM) to both the sports and the money markets. We will continue to attempt to address these parallels and to utilise football issues as a window to wider societal issues.
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