Conspicuous By Their Absence

UEFA generally uses a steady stream of English referees for Champions League and UEFA Cup matches. However, my contacts inform me that the English officials have been receiving very poor ratings this season with the result that only Halsey (who was chosen for the critical Parma/Heerenveen UEFA Cup Match) was selected for any of the most recent 48 games in Europe.
Apparently, the straw that broke the camels back was Steve Bennett's stunning performance for AEK v Lille in Ch Lg Rnd 4.
UEFA demands monopolistic control of it's competitions.

Blatter Blather

Sepp Blatter states that "we must never stop the match with videos or monitors to look at what has happened". And Blatter's reasoning... "it would take away the spontaneity and fascination of our game - we must keep football with a human face."
All aspects of the game - tournament winners, player valuations, managers careers, major gambling liabilities, stock market prices etc - depend upon the accuracy of key match decisions. Why not use the technology?
It's not fascinating to lose a title or, for that matter, your job due to the "spontaneity" of a match official, Mr Blatter. If global football truly wanted to put on a human face then the authorities would drive corruption out of the game. FIFA obviously have no desire to clean up the sport and they will, no doubt, continue to put out all the usual duplicitous platitudes while maintaining the current status quo.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Il Ritorno Di Paparesta

Sunday sees the return of Paparesta to take control of the Lazio/Ascoli game. One of the two officials to be properly banned for their roles in the Moggiopoli scandal, it seems a little too soon for the man to be back on the pitch. Paparesta's ban lasted 77 days (just 18 days more than Dermot Gallagher endured for not sending off Thatcher for the assault on Mendes). Of the eight officials initially banned, only De Santis remains sidelined. On a trading level, we're delighted to see the man return - we read Paparesta events very well indeed.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Under The Shade of a Coolibah Tree

Well, you Poms sure got a bashing in Brisbane today. Cricket is a much more tricky game when you have to play with the other side's balls (f'nar f'nar) and when you can't doctor the wicket to suit your bowlers.
We are on Australia big-style on a variety of different markets (I reckon the Australian 2nd team would obliterate the Pommies).
Oh good, it's time for the death of English cricket (again!).
What is Ashley Giles by the way?
Has Monty Panesar merely been left out by the public school people in some misguided belief that it forms part of the war of/on terror?

Chelsea? Up For It? My Arse...

In Round 5 of The Champions League, UEFA applied significant pressure to ensure that teams with nothing to play for (eg Levski Sofia, Hamburg, Milan) would put out a credible 11 players. Similarly with Chelsea due to Mourinho's grudge with all things Catalunyan.
Although I monitor all concurrent games, I was paying extra attention to the Chelsea game due to the forthcoming Man Utd encounter. Andy Gray's assertion late in the game which was roughly along the lines of 'nobody can doubt that Chelsea really want to win this game' was total drivel (his exact words were drowned out by the hysterical laughter resonating around the trading room). Which game were you watching, Mr Gray? Chelsea made no attempt to win the game. It is quite evident to insiders when teams are merely going through the motions. And it's not only Chelsea. Although personally I was ecstatic with Nakamura's stunner, United were not exactly up for it were they?
When I visit my home city of Manchester (Mancs feel football on a different level than the rest of the planet), I chat with the people about footie and there is a shared perception in the city among lifelong supporters that the broadcasters (and Sky in particular) underestimate the degree of cynicism that has permeated the grass roots of the fanbase. For Mancunians, the issue is not whether the game has been corrupted but how it has been corrupted and who is doing the corrupting.
This is one of the critical foundations to the astonishing success of FC United of Manchester(www.fc-utd.co.uk). Formed in the aftermath of the Glazer takeover, United are top of the North West Counties League Division One (no less!). After promotion last season, mini-United attract crowds of 2500+ (there were 3200 for the mini-derby against Maine Road). Rhodri Giggs (brother of Ryan)is a star of the team and goals are celebrated effervescently rather than the staged theatrical drama-queening that we get in the Premiership. Yet another case of that rare creature - Proper Football.
Tangentially, why are there virtually no television commentators, summarisers, experts, co-commentators etc from Manchester? Everybody who has ever played for Liverpool is constantly on tv and there are an increasing number of ex-Gunners sneaking in too. Mancunians? Lee Sharpe phases in and out of reality and, every so often when the BBC wish to entirely confuse its audience, they wheel out Schmeichel. Otherwise, nowt. It's probably just another Liverpool, Masonic, WASP sort of thing...

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Victory for Victor?

10 days ago, there was a blaze of publicity for the story about Gibraltar-based Victor Chandler International accepting sizeable bets from a number of Premiership managers and players. Then, Mr Clean, Max Clifford, scuttles off to the High Court and all media immediately drop the item.
Why? Why can't we know who these individuals are? Why is the High Court protecting them? Why has the sinister Mr Clifford been working for Chandler for the last few years?
There seems to be an increasing number of people who are above the law in Britain - we welcome Berezovsky yet chase out political refugees. We hassle individual players for minor social indiscretions and yet bury stories about alleged corruption in the upper echelons of the game.
It was a great game football...

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Use Technology to Count Mr. Poll's Yellow Cards

Arsene Wenger has backed weekend calls from Aidy Boothroyd and Mark Hughes for Premiership referees to use video technology on key decisions. Wenger's press release finishes "...But what is even more surprising is that the referees don't want to use it. It's amazing." And one might ask why referees wouldn't want to improve the likelihood of making a correct decision? No technology leads to more randomised results.
This is one of the points that was covered in "A Structure to Avoid Corruption (Part 1)" on this site on November 13th. Just using the available technology would significantly reduce the scope for the corruption in football betting markets as outcomes would be determined by a grouping of people rather than just one.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Theatre Review

Four entirely non-competitive events and creative refereeing were the weekend's Premiership fare. Anybody who paid to go to see Wigan v Villa, Reading v Charlton, Chelsea v Chelsea Reserves or Boro v Liverpool were treated to tedium supreme.
The huge spaces on what used to be terraces were noticeable at each of Sky's live games. No matter how loud the broadcaster turns up the crowd on the mixing desk or how selective the director is with camera choice, it cannot hide the fact that we are being served up sub-standard "sport" and very few people are willing to pay to see it. Compare the blood and thunder of the Everton v Bolton grudge match with events at "The Bridge" where a friendly match took place - there were rumours of "a challenge" early in the 2nd half. False rumours as it turned out.
The game at Wigan had all the hallmarks of a Serie A classic agreed draw - no tackles, as few shots as possible, no fouls, no soul...
Frequently in Man Utd games against the very weak teams, there seems to be a dynamic to stop a Win at HT - Win at FT option being landed. The bookies are overwhelmed with greedy leisure punters who insist on taking this option as opposed to a more sensible position on the Traditional Odds at 90 min or the Asian Handicap markets. On Saturday, United's repeated 1st Half penalty claims were turned down by the increasingly rejectionist Clattenburg. Incidentally, this also often applies to England when at short odds.
Charlton's inept performance suggests that the internal upheavals are not appreciated by the players. Is Curbishley somewhere in the shadows? He usually is...
After being placed 1st and 3rd in the best performing referees table on this site's Bum Ref Index (November 16th), Foy and Dowd had 'mares at the weekend. Foy's penalty decisions won the game for Pompey (despite a David James special) and in the game between Bet24 and Mansion, Dowd mugged Blackburn, enraged Tottenham and generally played the panto baddie. This makes Bennett clear leader in the Index - how can this be? Is Bennett the best? Shit.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

The Bum Ref Index

From time to time, The Economist attempts to shed it's image as a purveyor of the dismal science (sic) by displaying it's Big Mac Index. This uses the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (a little device Economists use to disguise global realities) to compare the costs of Macdonald's repulsive offerings around the world. The index provides a snapshot of which currencies are currently under or over valued.
In a similarly pithy style, I'd like to introduce The Bum Ref Index which compares the performance of all the FA Premiership referees for season 06/07. While I am unwilling to disclose the secret formula that I have used to determine the Index, I will admit a degree of subjectivity. But only a degree...
The Bum Ref Index assesses referees for the degree of impact they have on the game as it is a generally held view that the best officials are virtually invisible on the field of play. So here goes...the Worst 5 officials followed by the best 5 (complete to last weekend's games).
17th and Last: Walton 3.25
16th and Relegation Position: Dean 2.90
15th and Relegation Position: Gallagher 2.89
14th: Mason 2.84
13th: Halsey 2.75
5th and UEFA Cup Place: Webb 2.14
4th and Champions League: Atkinson 2.09
3rd: Dowd 1.95
2nd: Bennett 1.76
1st: Foy 1.57

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely #1 and #2

Okay, apart from the fact that he looks like Andy Gray's father, the rantings of the Rt Heavy John Reid should have no place on a blog about football and betting. But... I just heard the man say on BBC News 24 that "Unfortunately...I have to respect the law and civil liberties"!!!!! As opposed to being above the law one assumes.
They all make their best nonsenses in the morning. I still chuckle when I think of Gordon Brown's determined assertion that we went to war in Iraq "...in Britain's own economic interests". Priceless.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

"Throw Robinson In The Tower" - The Sun

So, the chattering sub-classes are wittering on about Paul Robinson and whether he is able to deal with long range efforts. Who cares? I was on Reading big style from market opening. Still grinning :))
For me, the jury is still out on Robinson and some of this Spectacular Society stuff is related to the continuing campaign to get David "Calamity" James back between England's posts. Indeed, Robinson sometimes appears to be morphing into a enseemly mixture of James and Fabian "Casino" Barthez.
Totally unrelated to the above goalkeepers in any way, shape or form is a trading hint. Some keepers are shit. Some keepers are crooked and a few keepers are both shit and crooked. Always keep an eye on the keepers.

A Structure To Avoid Corruption (Part 1)

In Serie A, there are 32 referees on the roster. In the Bundesliga, there are 40 referees. In the Premiership, there are merely 17. In fact in season 06/07, over 71% of the games in the top English league have been refereed by just 10 officials and over a third of the games to date by just 4 officials (Poll, Bennett, Wiley and Webb). Think about that for a moment, more than 1 in 3 games in the Premiership have been officiated by this small cell of individuals.
I have no desire to suggest that these officials are doing anything untoward. I am more concerned about the potential cultures that this structure allows.
If criminal elements were able to infiltrate such a small group, it would have an abominable effect on the beautiful game. If an individual club were able to buy out such an intimate little group, championships would be decided.
When you look solely at televised games, the statistics are even more damning. I'm totally bored of seeing Mr Poll. I have my own private views on what the man is about but he is no better nor worse than many others - I'm just sick of the sight of him and I don't like his refereeing style.
So lets see 38 referees in the Premiership. 19 men and 19 women. Lets have technology determine the legality or otherwise of penalties, goals and sending offs. All officials will only referee any given team once per season. All microphones that are worn by officials to be on an open communication line. No sponsorship of individual teams by bookmakers. No insider trading.
You never know, real people might actually start going to watch football again. Because now wherever you look, it is just half-empty grounds with sub-standard theatre. You might as well go and watch the dogs...

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Stadium Myth?

A decade or more ago when the betting rings of British racecourses were my office spaces, one came across all manner of rural myths relating to the markets. My favourite was the one about a small team of individuals - one monitoring the tic-tac in the ring and two others in a van on the racecourse perimeter illegally monitoring mobile phone conversations and using bullet microphones to listen into the ramblings of the layers. Cool!
I was reminded of this "myth" at the weekend when an urban equivalent was suggested to me by one of my market analysts. The word is that some traders are using similar microphones and other devices that should be left in university physics laboratories to monitor the miked-up Premiership officials. The Professional Game Match Officials Board should be taking note of this potential loophole in their operation.

Fool-Fool Ras Clots and Eejits

So, it's xenophobic break until the weekend. Following the success of my "Anybody But England" flags that were produced for the World Cup, it is time for another rant against the colonial imperialism that surfaces whenever the Three Lions stride onto an international battlefield.
OK, for a starter, out of the 28 players originally named in the England squad, 15 come from an Irish and/or Afro-Caribbean background. How galling it must be to have to put up with all that God Saving The Queen, Sweet Chariots Swinging Low(?), Jerusalem, Hope and Glory shite when plantations, famines, slavery, Cromwell and British divide and rule policies of yesteryear are considerably more defining in the lives of you and your family.
Fortunately, England will never win anything of consequence for three reasons. Firstly, they are simply not good enough. Secondly, wages are more important than nationalism for the Ras Clots and Eejits that choose England ahead of Jamaica or Eire. Thirdly, the bookmakers would never allow it. No chance. Also, England suffers from the same sort of regionalism that blights Spanish football - the Catalans hate the Basques, the Galicians hate everybody and everybody hates the Castillians.
Sport is a lens through which society is able to view itself. The current wave of xenophobic racism that is sweeping Britain and Europe had its foundation in the Netherlands (England's opponents on Wednesday) with Pim Fortuyn and Theo Van Gogh and all that nonsense. We expect behaviour from immigrants that we don't expect from ourselves. From Tebbit's Cricket Test to Gordon Brown and all that Magna Carta shit, we expect all and sundry to be so grateful for the grudging acceptance that we bestow upon them. Yet the English abroad live in tiny enclaves of ex-pats, refuse to learn the language, prefer chamber music to any local culture and complain about how cruel all these nasty Europeans are to animals.
Finally, I really don't believe in capital punishment but if there is a line where it might be valid, I wouldn't place the threshold at Saddam Hussein, Ariel Sharon, Bush, Blair or any of the other psychopaths that won't be missed when the world is eventually purged. But, it has to be worthy of consideration for the members of that bloody band that follows Engerland around playing offensive little ditties indicative of our little island mentality.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Proper Football

Here in Kerkyra, the island's football team (the mighty A.O. Kerkyra) is hovering in the upper reaches of The Hellenic Super League. Only Olympiakos have conceded less goals. Yesterday's 1-0 defeat of OFI Heraklion Kriti via a 90th minute goal from Gustavo moves the Corfiots into 6th place. Only formed in 1969, this is only the islanders second season in the top flight - the last ended with only three wins and bottom place but did include an astonishing victory over Panathinaikos in a legit game. The football may be crap apart from the Brazilians in the team and there are a fair few fixed games but in the shadow of the Pandokrator with the Zagori Mountains on the Greek/Albanian mainland in the background and the flights landing at the adjacent airport, it has a sort of credibility that you just don't get in a Fulham v Charlton Monday Night Sky game. Anyway Kerkyra are on the rise and its totally cool. Our boundless optimism is clearly defined that our two kits are in the colours of Real Madrid and Barça. Kerkyra Kerkyrara!!

Will Mike Newell Last The Season?

So Mike Newell proudly claims that he is sexist and that bringing women referees into the game "...is tokenism for the politically correct idiots".
Okay, lets get one thing straight - we should all be grateful to the male chauvinist pig for going public about the bung culture that blights our national game. But, putting on my pc idiot hat, the man is several courgettes short of a ratatouille.
Does he prefer his match officials to have links to bookmakers, freemasons and the underworld? Does he prefer decisions being made in smoke-filled rooms by people with cocaine-filled nasal passages? Does he prefer a sports world in which betting patterns have a greater influence on outcome than the abilities of teams or individuals?
With a few obvious exceptions, women have a far greater sense of fair play and justice than men and we should be welcoming them into the game with open arms.
Mr Newell should also take care. Following his disclosures regarding bungs, there is considerable momentum in high places to get him out of the game asap.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Trading Against Media Disinformation

In 1963, A.W. Cohen (a legendary market analyst) began to collect different market newsletters with the aim of systematically trading against their recommendations. This remains a critical part of trading on both financial and football markets although such analysis should be utilised alongside other forms of market assessment.
When key operators and media outlets (such as The Racing Post, Sporting Life, The Guardian and Sky Television) are determinedly persuading us of the value in betting on Team A, Team B is often the better option (on the Asian Handicap markets in particular). There are two prime reasons for the success of this trading attitude. Firstly, certain individuals within the media are deliberately providing disinformation for the benefit of the bookmakers. And, secondly, concerted disinformation enables a preferential price for insiders to take a contrary view on the market.
In the former case, it is worth monitoring key individuals over a period of time and the ones who are providing disinformation (whether deliberately or not) will become obvious. In addition, when one is able to see the "experts", judge their body language and go with your intuition. We are primed as a species to experience a gut feeling about the morals and ethics of other human beings. A good trigger question to ask yourself is "would I buy a used car from this man?"
The best example of the latter type of manipulation was provided by the trading of some of the key Asian Market Makers a few years ago. These traders would strategically place large bets on Team A around Europe with the result that the market would move significantly to reduce the price on Team A. Then truly colossal positions would be taken on Team B at preferential prices. Team B would then win and the European bookies were left sulking. It should be noted that the Europeans exercise much more control of the markets these days.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

"It's So Difficult Getting Taxis In Barcelona..."

As part of my work, I am forced to endure far too many hours of watching football on Sky TV. Listening to the smarmy presenters is, unfortunately, a necessary task and when they persist in lying to me, it pisses me off big style.
It is bad enough hearing Jamie Redknapp misinforming me on the games but I expect and accept this type of rubbish. But when the commentators insist on pretending that they are at the stadium (as they do for Champions League and Spanish La Liga games) when they are actually in a London studio, I move to grumpy old man mode.
Two examples.....For 30 minutes of the 2nd Half of the Champions League game between Internazionale and Spartak Moscow, Sky persisted in telling us that the Italians were 3-1 ahead before claiming that "there is some confusion in the stadium about the score" and backtracking to the actual 2-1 score. But this wasn't in the same league as a Barcelona v Espanyol match a number of years back. The satellite transmission failed and, when the signal returned, Rob Palmer informed us that we hadn't missed anything and carried on with his usual nonsense to do with the taxi journey from the airport. Then he noticed that 2-0 had become 3-0! He went into middle class blathering mode - oh how we giggled...
Incidentally, I raised this point at a recent meeting with some Sky people (aliens?) but they were genetically predisposed to duplicitousness - the interaction took on the form of Tony "Trust Me" Blair's monthly press conference.

Regulating The Gambling Industry

The Rt Hon Tessa Jowell MP is our beloved government's Minister for Culture (her estranged partner is the Rt Dodgy David Mills - Berlusconi's buddy). Below is an open communication regarding her avowed aim to make Britain the cleanest gambling environment on the planet.
"Having observed your recent comments relating to gambling legislation in the UK, I wish to share some key points that I believe are relevant to the current discussion.
In my view, regulating the gambling industry to protect the vulnerable and children is admirable but does not go nearly far enough in such a manipulative area of the economy. Below I have listed some points that should be taken into account with regard to different sub-sectors of the industry.
Online Casinos – Repeated research and statistical analysis has shown that online poker tables are generally corrupt. Why any individual would trust such a virtual game is quite beyond my comprehension. All companies should have to submit their software and gaming practices for independent external assessment.
Casinos – Operators do not allow winning clients. If one wins at blackjack via card counting, for example, you will find that no casino will admit you to their tables. Furthermore, it is very difficult to find poker tables that offer a level playing field. If clients are not able to win, we are effectively dealing with voluntary “taxation” here.
Traditional Bookmakers – Similarly, most traditional bookmakers do not allow winning accounts (I could paper the walls of my office with letters informing me that “it is not in our economic interests to continue offering you an account”). Some of the more enlightened market makers do allow winning accounts and treat such accounts as buying information. However, as gambling winnings are not enforceable under law, one has to build into one’s trading strategy an accommodation for non-payment of winnings at some point in the interaction.
Betting Exchanges – Although a great improvement on the traditional bookmakers, all of the betting exchanges scalp the prices offered to winning clients in real time.
Of significantly greater concern is the fact that conspicuous money can affect outcome in a wide range of sports. To professional traders like myself, we treat this as being part of the game (if one can put up with monopolistic abuse in trading mature financial markets e.g. oil and other commodities, we can put up with it in sports events!). But, for the leisure punter, this effectively represents a latter day form of highway robbery by the market makers and their associates.
To truly protect the vulnerable, the government must take a much more proactive approach. The benefits will be widespread. Criminals will be forced out of the sector; sports events will return to being competitive games as opposed to markets for financial manipulation; mug punters will sometimes even win! Anything less than a thorough and complete overhaul of the entire sector will merely be cosmetic window dressing."

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Manipulated Markets

English Football is currently reeling from the impacts of the Stevens inquiry into the bung culture, the standard and ethics of referees and the revelation that Victor Chandler International allegedly took bets from some Premiership Managers and Players. The words “tip” and “iceberg” spring to mind.
I have traded professionally on global football betting markets for the past 15 years. In my experience, all the brokers, market makers and bookmakers that I have traded with take bets from insiders in the game. It is regarded as buying information. Undoubtedly, some of this exchange of information borders on the corrupt. The recent betting scandal in Germany and the uproar in Italy’s Serie A show that this isn’t merely a British problem.
Asian Market Makers regularly accept bets of greater than £1million without blinking (Gianluigi Buffon – the Juventus goalkeeper – was found with betting slips for several million euros in his possession during the Moggiopoli scandal). Inevitably, the liquidity of the Asian markets persuades some football people to enhance their earning capacities. To my knowledge, such individuals include players, managers, referees, bookmakers, agents and the criminal fringe. It isn’t just the Italian mafia centres of Napoli, Palermo and Reggio di Calabria that are actively involved in football markets!
To date, all attempts to clean up the game have been peripheral. In Germany, some selective sweeping under the carpet and wrist slapping went on in response to the referee Robert Hoyzer admitting that he took money to alter football match outcomes. But, I believe that there are other match officials in the Bundesliga who were merely demoted or, indeed, allowed to continue to officiate. In Italy, in the aftermath of calciocaos, two referees were suspended but the other six that were under investigation are still involved in Serie A.
Although there are many corrupt players, it is the match officials who are the key component of this crisis. Some have links to individual clubs, some to bookmakers and some to the underworld. There are also many honest people in the game who are just trying to do their jobs. However, until football cleans up its act, corruption will persist. Falling attendances in Italy and England are partially related to deficiencies in the sport on offer. Although the prawn sandwich brigade remain oblivious to anything, the true fans know when they are being short changed. The recent assertion by Graeme Souness that British football is “the most honest in Europe” is simply laughable.
Tessa Jowell, the Minister for Culture, is aiming to make Britain a clean and well regulated gambling environment. I fully support her and her Department’s efforts but such efforts must extend beyond the protection of the vulnerable and the targeting of company directors with criminal links.
The football authorities also need to take a lead in this area and not just in the betting arena. In the lead up to the last World Cup, there was a real concern within FIFA that Uzbekistan were going to make it to the finals. This would have been politically unacceptable. In the first leg of the Asian Play Off with Bahrain, the Uzbeks won 1-0 and had a penalty denied them by the Japanese official. FIFA ludicrously ordered the game to be replayed and a 1-1 draw resulted. Bahrain won through in the Second Leg on away goals – the official for that second game (obviously by chance in the light of recent occurrences) was a certain Mr Graham Poll!

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological