It had appeared that the final ignominy of the 2006/07 season arrived for Arsène Wenger when some of the Emirates faithful started booing Arsenal early in the second half of last night's match against Manchester City. Not so... Today, the Arsenal vice-chairman David Dein has left the club with immediate effect.
Only three months ago, the Gooners reserves wiped out Liverpool 6-3 in a Busby Babes-esque performance but the constant institutional friction against their interests has turned around the fickle ones inside the ground. Such fans evidently possess more money than sense. The determined undermining of Arsenal on the pitch has been parallelled by the destabilisation caused by Stan Kroenke and his KSE Group in the boardroom.
The final irony is that last night's victory enabled Arsenal to virtually assure Champions League participation for next season - in the light of the machinations against them over the season, this represents the highest plateau of achievement available.
Historically, Arsenal have always been a power team in English football which is why this season's reversal has been so marked. By the time Wenger decided to call it a day in the Premiership title race, Arsenal had been unjustly targeted to the tune of 15 points over the season while biased refereeing and "random" FA Cup draws had sorted that particular competition out. The turning point came after Howard Webb's ineffective handling of the League Cup Final had prevented the occurrence of anything magical. The aftermath represented not only Arsène Wenger's third disciplinary of the season but also the turning point in the PGMOB machinations against Arsenal. Our assessment is that the necessary short term institutional targets had been achieved and so, recently, Arsenal's route to Europe has been paved with favourable officiating.
Our Trading Team have creatively modelled the corruption against Arsenal this season. In real-time, we monitor and assess all Premiership referees and the configurative parameters in our Unified Trading Model (UTM) relating to both the psychologies and the behaviours of officials are highly robust. Many of our conclusions relevant to the anti-Arsenal manipulation are too close to our proprietary core for public discussion but two areas that we are happy to cover here are the biases of the PGMOB officials and the impact of private equity money.
Hierarchically, Arsenal are in a state of flux. It is obvious that there are conflicting dynamics and hidden strategies relating to Arsenal's future ownership within the upper echelons of the club. Personal prioritisation versus organisational prioritisation is a complex playing field. The fault lines that already exist will be exploited by Stan Kroenke and the inevitable resultant momentum is the logical force that makes private equity so powerful. The market system is so structured as to lubricate this process. This internal upheaval within the club is coinciding with major infrastructural changes generally in English and European football. Strategies must be developed that accommodate this backcloth.
David Dein and Arsène Wenger were in the process of preparing Arsenal's Five Year Plan. Now that Dein has departed, there are still some key strategic choices that need to be made here. Arsenal have always exercised their power within the games infrastructure but they do not get involved in the global football betting markets. It is this, as we have shown in numerous other posts, where considerable revenue flows are being pencilled in by the private equity brigade at other leading clubs. Arsenal have two clear strategic choices. The first route is to sell out to the highest private equity bidder allowing Fiszman and Lady Bracewell-Smith to collect their millions while the club plummets into the gutter at the lowest common denominator level of business. Alternatively, Arsenal might choose not to sell out to the degree that Liverpool, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Portsmouth have. Arsenal might decide to confront the corruption against their interests by creatively involving themselves in the financial markets without having to undertake anything so grubby as betting. After all, there are many ways to influence a market. We hope that Arsenal choose the more creative and moral route with respect to the markets. As the club have discovered this season, chaos moves in mysterious ways.
At least two aspects will remain a constant under Wenger's tutelage. We would expect that Arsenal continue to develop the most entertaining and talented global youngsters and we would expect Arsenal to remain a team of style and flair.
Some previous posts on Arsenal at Football is Fixed are listed below:
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2006/12/breaking-news.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/six-three-to-arsenal.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/non-gooner-london-bias.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/dont-criticise-refs-and-other.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/01/weekend-premiership-round-up.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/riley-wiley-make-bookmakers-smiley.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/02/magic-of-fa-cup-revisited.html
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/03/pgmob-defeat-arsenal-again.html
Wednesday, 18 April 2007
Saturday, 14 April 2007
Subvert, Divide And Rule, Bribe
Just when the general consensus of opinion was that things cannot get any worse in Italian football, the Neapolitan Public Prosecutors decided otherwise by considerably extending the scope of last summer's investigation into match-fixing in Serie A and B. The twenty four games that were originally under investigation have been increased to 39 as the Italians oscillate timelessly in between admonishment and amnesty (for some).
The story so far is that Juventus were demoted while Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio and Reggina had points deductions. The main beneficiaries were Roma and Inter who were presented with a Serie A duopoly for the current season and Messina who avoided relegation thanks to the fall of the Old Lady. There is an instance of dietrologia here in that the very same Messina are now being added to the list of teams who are suspected of seeking to influence matches. "We have nothing to do with this scandal. And we have always operated with complete legality and transparency," Messina president Pietro Franza hilariously claimed (with tongue firmly in cheek) in yesterday's press release. Sicily is a mess. I can feel another round of point adjustments coming on here. Public prosecutor Filippo Beatrice aims to bring the miscreants to justice between now and June so the key decision is whether penalties will be applied with hindsight to the current season or whether season 2007/08 is to take the form of a handicap too. To date, the Serie A points adjustments seem to be readjusted periodically to ensure that the correct teams end up in the correct positions at the season's end.
Eight referees were originally suspended but only two served a ban De Santis (who is banned) and Paparesta who has returned to officiate 10 Serie A games this season while also still being involved in UEFA events). He must be feeling suitably disciplined then. It is interesting to look at the other initially banned officials. Below is a list of the most frequently utilised officials in this season's Serie A:
Saccani 15
Ayroldi, BERTINI, Farina, Rizzoli 14
Rosetti, ROCCHI, MESSINA 13
Bergonzi, Girardi, TAGLIAVENTO 12
The officials in capitals were those initially suspended. Rodomonti has hung up his whistle; Dondarini has officiated at ten matches as has Paparesta but the latter was out of action for two months. There is no evidence that the Italian football authorities have carried through with their initial drive with regard to referees as now it seems that twenty five referees, 18 of whom are still working in the Italian league, also remain under suspicion. In the early phases of the current season, numerous new officials were introduced onto the roster to limit corruption opportunities but most of these have now been discarded as the power regimes reassert themselves.
We have frequently praised aspects of Italian manners in dealing with illegalities but, by the time the various appeals have been heard, the punishments rarely fit the crime and, additionally, power politics warps any sense of justice. Milan were as guilty as Juventus with respect to the controlling of officials and indeed, during Berlusconi's era, Milan through Galliani were omnipotent. The dichotomous outcome for the Big 2 is that the least guilty, Juventus, effectively lose all their players, one year's income, television money, have two years of Champions League omission and a borse battering while the most guilty, Milan, ensure that their points deduction doesn't prevent Champions League qualification for next season and then focus on reaching the final of this year's competition without the distraction of a domestic title race.
Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of an Italian season that has only really had drama off the pitch is that, against a chaotic backdrop, Italy deservedly won the World Cup! This victory was, apparently, all the more applaudable in that Blatter and FIFA were allegedly livid at the Italian scandal breaking to coincide with their piece of global marketing. On this latter point, we think some of the public posturing was spectacular society nonsense but Italy's triumph was a major triumph nonetheless.
Subvert, divide and rule, bribe is the standard template used by imperial nations, multinational organisations and globalised businesses. This structure underpins the corruption that has taken hold in the Premiership over the last fifteen years about which there is no mainstream media comment. It also underpins the very public corruption exhibited in Serie A.
The English Premiership could do with a bit of dietrologia as the situation here is considerably worse. But don't hold your breath...
The story so far is that Juventus were demoted while Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio and Reggina had points deductions. The main beneficiaries were Roma and Inter who were presented with a Serie A duopoly for the current season and Messina who avoided relegation thanks to the fall of the Old Lady. There is an instance of dietrologia here in that the very same Messina are now being added to the list of teams who are suspected of seeking to influence matches. "We have nothing to do with this scandal. And we have always operated with complete legality and transparency," Messina president Pietro Franza hilariously claimed (with tongue firmly in cheek) in yesterday's press release. Sicily is a mess. I can feel another round of point adjustments coming on here. Public prosecutor Filippo Beatrice aims to bring the miscreants to justice between now and June so the key decision is whether penalties will be applied with hindsight to the current season or whether season 2007/08 is to take the form of a handicap too. To date, the Serie A points adjustments seem to be readjusted periodically to ensure that the correct teams end up in the correct positions at the season's end.
Eight referees were originally suspended but only two served a ban De Santis (who is banned) and Paparesta who has returned to officiate 10 Serie A games this season while also still being involved in UEFA events). He must be feeling suitably disciplined then. It is interesting to look at the other initially banned officials. Below is a list of the most frequently utilised officials in this season's Serie A:
Saccani 15
Ayroldi, BERTINI, Farina, Rizzoli 14
Rosetti, ROCCHI, MESSINA 13
Bergonzi, Girardi, TAGLIAVENTO 12
The officials in capitals were those initially suspended. Rodomonti has hung up his whistle; Dondarini has officiated at ten matches as has Paparesta but the latter was out of action for two months. There is no evidence that the Italian football authorities have carried through with their initial drive with regard to referees as now it seems that twenty five referees, 18 of whom are still working in the Italian league, also remain under suspicion. In the early phases of the current season, numerous new officials were introduced onto the roster to limit corruption opportunities but most of these have now been discarded as the power regimes reassert themselves.
We have frequently praised aspects of Italian manners in dealing with illegalities but, by the time the various appeals have been heard, the punishments rarely fit the crime and, additionally, power politics warps any sense of justice. Milan were as guilty as Juventus with respect to the controlling of officials and indeed, during Berlusconi's era, Milan through Galliani were omnipotent. The dichotomous outcome for the Big 2 is that the least guilty, Juventus, effectively lose all their players, one year's income, television money, have two years of Champions League omission and a borse battering while the most guilty, Milan, ensure that their points deduction doesn't prevent Champions League qualification for next season and then focus on reaching the final of this year's competition without the distraction of a domestic title race.
Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of an Italian season that has only really had drama off the pitch is that, against a chaotic backdrop, Italy deservedly won the World Cup! This victory was, apparently, all the more applaudable in that Blatter and FIFA were allegedly livid at the Italian scandal breaking to coincide with their piece of global marketing. On this latter point, we think some of the public posturing was spectacular society nonsense but Italy's triumph was a major triumph nonetheless.
Subvert, divide and rule, bribe is the standard template used by imperial nations, multinational organisations and globalised businesses. This structure underpins the corruption that has taken hold in the Premiership over the last fifteen years about which there is no mainstream media comment. It also underpins the very public corruption exhibited in Serie A.
The English Premiership could do with a bit of dietrologia as the situation here is considerably worse. But don't hold your breath...
Friday, 6 April 2007
We're All Cynical Realists Really
The aim of Football Is Fixed, to shamelessly quote Jean Baudrillard, is suggested by the following. "Doubtless one should put oneself in the position of an imaginary traveller who came upon these writings as if they were a lost manuscript and, for the want of supporting documents, subsequently strove to reconstitute the society they describe".
We take a cynical realist's view of the world. We use our analytical skills not just to increase our individual bank balances but to create constructs that explain the data on both a market and a political/societal level. The posts that we choose to place on Football Is Fixed are based on our historical trading strategies and our financial system knowledge (a parallel to institutional knowledge). We believe that the corruption endemic in mature sports betting markets is replicated across all mature sectors in a shareholder capitalist system and one of our prime aims is to demonstrate a systems thinking approach to such correlations.
I'm merely a one trick pony. It's just that society has decided it is a pretty neat trick. I can model things like financial markets and RS Canum Venaticorum Binary Systems. In a world thinly sliced into niches of infinitessimally fine sectors, virtually anyone may focus on their core competencies and peripheralise weaknesses to overachieve in an effectively irrelevant field. I mean, what does it really matter whether the Sevilla penalty was justified last night? Who should really care? This is really not a big deal. It can only become a big deal if extrapolated and tested against the financial structures that represent globalisation. The modern internet includes a web of sites similar to Football Is Fixed openly in discussion of a system designed for manipulation and corruption. The fear factor that underlies our global system enforces an anally retentive isolationism on the part of many market operators but we choose to be open source even if only to an extent.
This is absolutely not a solely altruistic act. We have surprised ourselves with the range of significant advantages that have accumulated from our public discussion of some of the corrupt structures in football. We have based our isolationist/altruistic threshold similarly to Berkshire Hathaway or Phil Bull - openly discuss how you made money last year but no current proprietary trading strategy. Indeed, addressing areas of historical concern in a public format ensures that we fully complete our holistic thinking with regard to particular market phases, inversions and structures. Additionally, and outrageously, by putting information into the market place in a controlled manner we are having a currently small but increasingly larger impact on the marketplace - there will be a threshold where our information and analyses will feed back into our Unified Trading Model (UTM). Cool!
Baudrillard, Buffett and Bull in one post :)
We take a cynical realist's view of the world. We use our analytical skills not just to increase our individual bank balances but to create constructs that explain the data on both a market and a political/societal level. The posts that we choose to place on Football Is Fixed are based on our historical trading strategies and our financial system knowledge (a parallel to institutional knowledge). We believe that the corruption endemic in mature sports betting markets is replicated across all mature sectors in a shareholder capitalist system and one of our prime aims is to demonstrate a systems thinking approach to such correlations.
I'm merely a one trick pony. It's just that society has decided it is a pretty neat trick. I can model things like financial markets and RS Canum Venaticorum Binary Systems. In a world thinly sliced into niches of infinitessimally fine sectors, virtually anyone may focus on their core competencies and peripheralise weaknesses to overachieve in an effectively irrelevant field. I mean, what does it really matter whether the Sevilla penalty was justified last night? Who should really care? This is really not a big deal. It can only become a big deal if extrapolated and tested against the financial structures that represent globalisation. The modern internet includes a web of sites similar to Football Is Fixed openly in discussion of a system designed for manipulation and corruption. The fear factor that underlies our global system enforces an anally retentive isolationism on the part of many market operators but we choose to be open source even if only to an extent.
This is absolutely not a solely altruistic act. We have surprised ourselves with the range of significant advantages that have accumulated from our public discussion of some of the corrupt structures in football. We have based our isolationist/altruistic threshold similarly to Berkshire Hathaway or Phil Bull - openly discuss how you made money last year but no current proprietary trading strategy. Indeed, addressing areas of historical concern in a public format ensures that we fully complete our holistic thinking with regard to particular market phases, inversions and structures. Additionally, and outrageously, by putting information into the market place in a controlled manner we are having a currently small but increasingly larger impact on the marketplace - there will be a threshold where our information and analyses will feed back into our Unified Trading Model (UTM). Cool!
Baudrillard, Buffett and Bull in one post :)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)